Simulation Results: Memorial Health Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Baddeley	0.01%	10000	501		144
Adam Hadwin	1.35%	74	41		119
Alistair Docherty	1.92%	52	41		40
Alvaro Ortiz	1.60%	63	34		70
Anders Albertson	0.15%	667	501		133
Andrew Kozan	0.35%	286	226		48
Augusto Nunez	0.10%	1000	201		45
Austin Hitt	0.94%	106	81		19
Barend Botha	0.81%	123	201	0.30%	84	-0.3	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Carr	1.30%	77	61		19
Ben Kohles	4.21%	24	17		19
Ben Sigel	0.01%	10000	1001		151
Ben Taylor	1.37%	73	61		27
Billy Tom Sargent	0.27%	370	251		40
Blades Brown	3.35%	30	19		55
Blaine Hale	0.19%	526	351		98
Braden Thornberry	0.18%	556	251		140
Brandon Berry	0.05%	2000	601		70
Brandon Wu	0.25%	400	151		98
Brett White	0.11%	909	601		19
Bryce Lewis	0.35%	286	176		107
Bryson Nimmer	0.15%	667	351		40
C.T. Pan	0.45%	222	126		155
Caleb VanArragon	1.68%	60	46		27
Cameron Champ	0.44%	227	111		151
Carl Yuan	0.81%	123	126		48
Carson Bacha	0.22%	455	276		119
Carson Young	1.55%	65	34		13
Chad Sewell	0.12%	833	351		133
Chan Kim	2.43%	41	34		33
Chesson Hadley	0.17%	588	351		64
Chez Reavie	1.24%	81	101	0.30%	70	-0.3	Betfred: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chris Francoeur	0.35%	286	301		33
Chris Korte	0.36%	278	276		70
Christiaan Maas	1.11%	90	67		19
Clay Amlung	0.01%	10000	1001		107
Cole Hammer	0.98%	102	61		144
Cole Sherwood	2.62%	38	34		2
Cooper Dossey	1.35%	74	34		19
Cooper Musselman	0.42%	238	301	0.10%	140	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cristobal Del Solar	0.44%	227	161		40
Daniel Summerhays	0.11%	909	351		119
David Kocher	0.18%	556	301		98
David Lingmerth	2.49%	40	111	1.60%	107	-1.6	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Davis Lamb	0.56%	179	126		98
Davis Shore	1.48%	68	67		70
Derek Hitchner	0.24%	417	401		55
Doc Redman	1.30%	77	51		13
Drew Nesbitt	0.08%	1250	351		1
Dylan Menante	0.90%	111	67		48
Filip Jakubcik	0.85%	118	67		33
Frankie Harris	0.26%	385	151		13
Hayden Buckley	1.90%	53	81	0.70%	33	-0.7	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hunter Eichhorn	2.86%	35	26		7
Hunter Wolcott	0.16%	625	151		66
Ian Gilligan	0.68%	147	67		119
Ian Holt	0.78%	128	81		98
Jack Maguire	0.11%	909	301		148
Jackson Buchanan	0.19%	526			19
Jackson Van Paris	0.31%	323	151		27
Jacob Solomon	0.40%	250	226		107
James Nicholas	0.73%	137	101		119
Jase Summy	2.57%	39	36		70
Jay Card	0.46%	217	226		48
Jeremy Gandon	0.63%	159	101		133
Jeremy Paul	0.50%	200	101		55
Joe Weiler	0.18%	556			107
John Marshall Butler	0.37%	270	141		140
John Pak	2.16%	46	34		84
Jorge Garcia	0.16%	625	401		84
Joseph Abella	0.00%	10000	1001		107
Joseph Bramlett	1.15%	87	71		70
Josh Teater	0.34%	294	126		140
Joshua Creel	0.31%	323	401	0.10%	70	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julian Suri	0.81%	123	201	0.30%	98	-0.3	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Justin Hastings	0.12%	833	401		119
Justin Suh	1.02%	98	101		33
Kaito Onishi	0.13%	769	276		107
Kevin Dougherty	0.80%	125	161	0.20%	10	-0.2	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kyle Westmoreland	0.31%	323	201		70
Logan McAllister	1.05%	95	67		148
Luke Guthrie	0.25%	400	751	0.10%	60	-0.1	Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Gutschewski	0.30%	333	401	0.10%	60	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Morgan	0.03%	3333	751		119
Luke Potter	0.16%	625	126		70
Luke Ringkamp	0.00%	10000	251		119
Mahanth Chirravuri	0.08%	1250	251		48
Marc Turnesa	0.00%	10000			144
Marshall Meisel	0.07%	1429	1001		107
Martin Laird	0.47%	213	201		70
Mason Andersen	0.54%	185	301	0.20%	13	-0.2	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Atkins	0.63%	159	126		27
Matt NeSmith	0.46%	217	226		151
Matthew Anderson	0.43%	233	201		107
Matthew Riedel	0.12%	833	601		3
Maxwell Moldovan	0.58%	172	161		55
Michael Feagles	0.24%	417	251		133
Michael Johnson	1.72%	58	51		7
Michael Thompson	0.05%	2000	251		33
Mitchell Meissner	0.69%	145	81		84
Nicholas Lindheim	0.00%	10000	501		119
Nick Gabrelcik	0.22%	455	201		13
Nick Hardy	0.47%	213	161
Nicolo Galletti	1.34%	75	81	0.10%	45	-0.1	BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Noah Goodwin	0.46%	217	161		84
Paul Barjon	0.05%	2000	201		55
Phichaksn Maichon	0.13%	769	501		107
Philip Knowles	0.21%	476	251		84
Preston Summerhays	0.17%	588	201		119
Rayhan Thomas	0.33%	303	111		98
Rhein Gibson	0.18%	556	401		133
Ricardo Celia	0.31%	323	501	0.10%	119	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rick Lamb	0.49%	204	126		53
Rob Oppenheim	0.10%	1000	351		119
Robby Shelton	0.34%	294	161		7
Roger Sloan	0.79%	127	126		84
Ross Steelman	0.71%	141	67		10
Russell Knox	0.43%	233	151		98
Ryan Blaum	0.46%	217	176		70
Ryan Brehm	0.07%	1429	751		84
Ryan Burnett	0.34%	294	251		68
Ryan McCormick	0.16%	625	301		53
Ryo Ishikawa	1.94%	52	61	0.30%	33	-0.3	Betfred: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sam Choi	0.17%	588	251		84
Scott Gutschewski	0.19%	526	751	0.10%	133	-0.1	Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Cappelen	0.07%	1429	401		40
Seung-Yul Noh	1.91%	52	46		84
Stuart Macdonald	0.22%	455	401		84
Taylor Dickson	0.48%	208	141		27
Theo Humphrey	0.18%	556	301		45
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.42%	238	301	0.10%	19	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom Whitney	0.67%	149	126		107
Tommy Morrison	1.34%	75	51		5
Travis Trace	0.90%	111	101		119
Trent Phillips	0.96%	104	81		84
Trevor Cone	0.52%	192	151		70
Trey Winstead	0.08%	1250	351		107
Troy Merritt	0.17%	588	201		5
Turk Pettit	0.42%	238	126		98
Tyler Duncan	0.75%	133	226	0.30%	13	-0.3	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyler Goecke	0.01%	10000	1001		84
Tyler Johnson	0.00%	10000	501		67
Tyler Leach	0.39%	256	276		119
Tyler Wilkes	0.16%	625	201		63
Tyson Alexander	0.08%	1250	601		70
Vicente Marzilio	0.20%	500	351		148
Wells Williams	0.04%	2500	201		144
Will Cannon	0.49%	204	151		3
Will Chandler	0.20%	500	226		133
Will Gordon	0.29%	345	501	0.10%	64	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Grimmer	0.00%	10000	1001		84
William Sides	2.54%	39	51	0.60%	10	-0.6	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wilson Furr	0.18%	556	301		68
Yuta Sugiura	0.68%	147	101		60
Zac Blair	2.35%	43	26		27
Zack Fischer	1.04%	96	81		151

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Baddeley	0.15%	667	251		117
Adam Hadwin	1.19%	84	67		117
Alistair Docherty	1.32%	76	67		53
Alvaro Ortiz	1.20%	83	56		30
Anders Albertson	0.47%	213	201		117
Andrew Kozan	0.59%	169	126		53
Augusto Nunez	0.28%	357	126		53
Austin Hitt	0.95%	105	91		53
Barend Botha	0.67%	149	111		133
Ben Carr	1.13%	88	81		53
Ben Kohles	2.00%	50	31		30
Ben Sigel	0.15%	667	301		155
Ben Taylor	0.90%	111	81		53
Billy Tom Sargent	0.44%	227	126		15
Blades Brown	1.31%	76	34		30
Blaine Hale	0.50%	200	161		75
Braden Thornberry	0.42%	238	126		15
Brandon Berry	0.31%	323	276		117
Brandon Wu	0.45%	222	101		96
Brett White	0.31%	323	276		53
Bryce Lewis	0.60%	167	111		75
Bryson Nimmer	0.33%	303	201		5
C.T. Pan	0.75%	133	101		147
Caleb VanArragon	0.97%	103	71		15
Cameron Champ	0.53%	189	101		151
Carl Yuan	0.63%	159	101		15
Carson Bacha	0.53%	189	151		96
Carson Young	1.21%	83	56		2
Chad Sewell	0.45%	222	161		117
Chan Kim	1.07%	93	51		5
Chesson Hadley	0.51%	196	161		96
Chez Reavie	0.82%	122	91		53
Chris Francoeur	0.68%	147	151		53
Chris Korte	0.48%	208	151		96
Christiaan Maas	1.10%	91	91		15
Clay Amlung	0.14%	714	301		117
Cole Hammer	0.93%	108	81		117
Cole Sherwood	1.18%	85	56		30
Cooper Dossey	0.83%	120	56		30
Cooper Musselman	0.54%	185	126		133
Cristobal Del Solar	0.75%	133	101		30
Daniel Summerhays	0.47%	213	201		133
David Kocher	0.35%	286	151		75
David Lingmerth	1.18%	85	91	0.10%	140	-0.1	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Davis Lamb	0.83%	120	101		75
Davis Shore	1.22%	82	91	0.10%	96	-0.1	BetMGM: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Derek Hitchner	0.56%	179	191		30
Doc Redman	1.15%	87	71		15
Drew Nesbitt	0.42%	238	161		1
Dylan Menante	0.72%	139	91		96
Filip Jakubcik	0.98%	102	91		30
Frankie Harris	0.42%	238	101		5
Hayden Buckley	0.97%	103	76		96
Hunter Eichhorn	1.61%	62	46		10
Hunter Wolcott	0.48%	208	101		10
Ian Gilligan	0.85%	118	91		15
Ian Holt	0.92%	109	91		133
Jack Maguire	0.47%	213	151		147
Jackson Buchanan	0.54%	185			3
Jackson Van Paris	0.50%	200	101		53
Jacob Solomon	0.48%	208	111		140
James Nicholas	0.67%	149	91		117
Jase Summy	1.18%	85	51		75
Jay Card	0.75%	133	111		117
Jeremy Gandon	0.78%	128	101		140
Jeremy Paul	0.57%	175	101		53
Joe Weiler	0.48%	208			30
John Marshall Butler	0.51%	196	101		75
John Pak	1.42%	70	56		96
Jorge Garcia	0.47%	213	191		53
Joseph Abella	0.04%	2500	301		96
Joseph Bramlett	1.06%	94	81		15
Josh Teater	0.64%	156	101		96
Joshua Creel	0.61%	164	191	0.10%	75	-0.1	Bet365: 190/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julian Suri	0.72%	139	111		30
Justin Hastings	0.42%	238	201		117
Justin Suh	1.04%	96	101	0.10%	96	-0.1	BetMGM: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kaito Onishi	0.31%	323	151		96
Kevin Dougherty	0.74%	135	101		30
Kyle Westmoreland	0.47%	213	111		140
Logan McAllister	1.05%	95	91		117
Luke Guthrie	0.40%	250	301	0.10%	30	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Gutschewski	0.44%	227	191		15
Luke Morgan	0.18%	556	276		133
Luke Potter	0.48%	208	101		75
Luke Ringkamp	0.03%	3333	151		117
Mahanth Chirravuri	0.27%	370	151		30
Marc Turnesa	0.08%	1250			117
Marshall Meisel	0.31%	323	301		53
Martin Laird	0.75%	133	111		151
Mason Andersen	0.57%	175	151		117
Matt Atkins	0.61%	164	91		30
Matt NeSmith	0.74%	135	111		96
Matthew Anderson	0.55%	182	111		53
Matthew Riedel	0.45%	222	276	0.10%	15	-0.1	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maxwell Moldovan	0.58%	172	101		30
Michael Feagles	0.60%	167	151		140
Michael Johnson	0.96%	104	71		10
Michael Thompson	0.32%	313	151		30
Mitchell Meissner	0.64%	156	91		96
Nicholas Lindheim	0.09%	1111	201		53
Nick Gabrelcik	0.55%	182	126		30
Nick Hardy	0.56%	179	101
Nicolo Galletti	1.09%	92	91		75
Noah Goodwin	0.53%	189	101		30
Paul Barjon	0.39%	256	126		75
Phichaksn Maichon	0.34%	294	191		96
Philip Knowles	0.41%	244	126		75
Preston Summerhays	0.36%	278	126		53
Rayhan Thomas	0.67%	149	101		117
Rhein Gibson	0.50%	200	191		133
Ricardo Celia	0.50%	200	191		133
Rick Lamb	0.59%	169	101		15
Rob Oppenheim	0.41%	244	201		53
Robby Shelton	0.64%	156	101		75
Roger Sloan	0.87%	115	101		75
Ross Steelman	0.87%	115	91		5
Russell Knox	0.74%	135	101		96
Ryan Blaum	0.60%	167	111		96
Ryan Brehm	0.27%	370	301		96
Ryan Burnett	0.63%	159	126		15
Ryan McCormick	0.49%	204	151		10
Ryo Ishikawa	1.35%	74	71		53
Sam Choi	0.48%	208	151		96
Scott Gutschewski	0.51%	196	301	0.20%	140	-0.2	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Cappelen	0.26%	385	201		30
Seung-Yul Noh	1.05%	95	71		53
Stuart Macdonald	0.39%	256	191		53
Taylor Dickson	0.56%	179	101		30
Theo Humphrey	0.34%	294	151		75
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.55%	182	151		75
Tom Whitney	0.83%	120	91		75
Tommy Morrison	0.89%	112	71		53
Travis Trace	0.92%	109	101		147
Trent Phillips	0.78%	128	91		30
Trevor Cone	0.59%	169	101		10
Trey Winstead	0.27%	370	201		75
Troy Merritt	0.53%	189	126		15
Turk Pettit	0.71%	141	101		117
Tyler Duncan	0.67%	149	111		3
Tyler Goecke	0.21%	476	301		147
Tyler Johnson	0.04%	2500	201		75
Tyler Leach	0.50%	200	151		151
Tyler Wilkes	0.38%	263	111		75
Tyson Alexander	0.28%	357	276		15
Vicente Marzilio	0.39%	256	161		151
Wells Williams	0.27%	370	126		96
Will Cannon	0.60%	167	101		15
Will Chandler	0.50%	200	126		30
Will Gordon	0.43%	233	191		96
Will Grimmer	0.11%	909	301		75
William Sides	1.53%	65	71	0.10%	75	-0.1	BetMGM: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Wilson Furr	0.52%	192	151		5
Yuta Sugiura	0.66%	152	101		53
Zac Blair	1.10%	91	46		30
Zack Fischer	0.99%	101	91		140

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: David Lingmerth	2.49%	40	111	1.60%	107	-2	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Hayden Buckley	1.90%	53	81	0.70%	33	-2	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: William Sides	2.54%	39	51	0.60%	10	-2	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Scott Gutschewski	0.51%	196	301	0.20%	140	-1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: William Sides	1.53%	65	71	0.10%	75	-1	BetMGM: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: David Lingmerth	1.18%	85	91	0.10%	140	-1	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Davis Shore	1.22%	82	91	0.10%	96	-1	BetMGM: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Justin Suh	1.04%	96	101	0.10%	96	-1	BetMGM: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Joshua Creel	0.61%	164	191	0.10%	75	-1	Bet365: 190/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.