Simulation Results: The Blue Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Vogelsong	0.02%	5000	501		109
Alvaro Ortiz	0.94%	106	51		78
Andrew Kozan	0.39%	256	201		45
Augusto Nunez	0.30%	333	141		64
Austin Duncan	0.17%	588	301		120
Austin Hitt	1.38%	72	61		40
Barend Botha	0.78%	128	251	0.40%	56	-0.4	PaddyPower: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Carr	1.81%	55	46		74
Ben Taylor	1.20%	83	91	0.10%	29	-0.1	QuinnBet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Tom Sargent	0.31%	323	251		129
Blades Brown	4.27%	23	13		22
Blaine Hale	0.26%	385	401		29
Braden Thornberry	0.22%	455	201		45
Brandon Berry	0.06%	1667	401		109
Brandon Harkins	0.15%	667	301		99
Brandon Matthews	0.01%	10000	501		154
Brandon Wu	0.31%	323	201		78
Brett Stegmaier	0.08%	1250	301		120
Brett White	0.39%	256	451	0.20%	45	-0.2	QuinnBet: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryce Lewis	0.32%	313	201		78
Bryson Nimmer	0.21%	476	251		146
C.T. Pan	0.00%	10000	201		109
Carl Yuan	1.17%	85	101	0.20%	99	-0.2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carson Bacha	0.18%	556	301		149
Carson Lundell	0.03%	3333	351		120
Carson Young	1.62%	62	26		99
Chad Sewell	0.16%	625	451		78
Chase Sienkiewicz	0.12%	833	451		144
Chez Reavie	0.99%	101	141	0.30%	78	-0.3	QuinnBet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chris Francoeur	0.74%	135	251	0.30%	144	-0.3	PaddyPower: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chris Korte	0.50%	200	301	0.20%	22	-0.2	QuinnBet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christiaan Maas	2.81%	36	34		5
Cole Hammer	0.62%	161	81		109
Cole Sherwood	4.41%	23	21		45
Cooper Dossey	2.56%	39	17		22
Cristobal Del Solar	0.79%	127	81		36
Dan McCarthy	0.32%	313	276		120
Daniel Summerhays	0.18%	556	301		120
Daniel Wetterich	0.26%	385	501	0.10%	29	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Kocher	0.24%	417	301		78
Davis Lamb	0.62%	161	176	0.10%	71	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Davis Shore	1.07%	93	67		16
Derek Hitchner	0.36%	278	301		78
Dillon Stewart	0.01%	10000	501		140
Doc Redman	2.38%	42	34		99
Drew Nesbitt	0.48%	208	126		45
Dylan Menante	0.96%	104	51		40
Filip Jakubcik	1.33%	75	61		120
Frankie Harris	1.99%	50	67	0.50%	78	-0.5	VirginBet: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
George Leigh	0.00%	10000	1001		74
Gregory Solhaug	0.01%	10000	501		40
Hayden Buckley	1.89%	53	71	0.50%	149	-0.5	QuinnBet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hunter Eichhorn	3.39%	29	17		36
Hunter Wolcott	0.11%	909	176		68
Ian Gilligan	0.52%	192	101		45
Ian Holt	0.76%	132	111		99
J.J. Grey	0.08%	1250	1001		134
Jack Maguire	0.11%	909	301		77
Jackson Buchanan	0.33%	303			9
Jackson Van Paris	0.62%	161	126		129
Jacob Solomon	0.32%	313	301		140
Jake Peacock	0.21%	476	176		109
James Song	0.01%	10000	1001		56
Jase Summy	1.73%	58	61	0.10%	109	-0.1	QuinnBet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jay Card	0.93%	108	176	0.40%	9	-0.4	QuinnBet: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeff Overton	0.07%	1429	451		99
Jeremy Gandon	0.58%	172	141		9
Jim Knous	0.19%	526	351		140
Joe Weiler	0.30%	333	301		78
John Marshall Butler	0.31%	323	176		36
John Pak	1.61%	62	41		22
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	0.66%	152	56		99
Jorge Garcia	0.17%	588	451		29
Joseph Bramlett	1.17%	85	71		9
Joshua Creel	0.29%	345	401		78
Julian Suri	0.63%	159	201	0.10%	56	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Justin Biwer	0.24%	417	126		5
Justin Hastings	0.13%	769	501		71
Justin Suh	1.26%	79	67		9
Kaito Onishi	0.21%	476	251		129
Keller Harper	0.01%	10000	1001		134
Kevin Dougherty	1.76%	57	46		78
Kevin Tway	0.24%	417	251		45
Kihei Akina	0.34%	294	67		78
Kyle Westmoreland	0.43%	233	201		16
Logan McAllister	0.69%	145	71		109
Luke Guthrie	0.30%	333	501	0.10%	152	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Gutschewski	0.50%	200	351	0.20%	22	-0.2	QuinnBet: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Potter	0.24%	417	126		29
Mahanth Chirravuri	0.41%	244	176		29
Marshall Meisel	0.10%	1000	1001		71
Mason Andersen	1.43%	70	176	0.90%	45	-0.9	Skybet: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Atkins	1.08%	93	111	0.20%	40	-0.2	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt NeSmith	0.31%	323	276		109
Matthew Anderson	0.31%	323	251		16
Matthew Riedel	0.56%	179	151		78
Maxwell Moldovan	0.70%	143	141		78
Michael Feagles	0.20%	500	276		66
Michael Johnson	2.53%	40	34		45
Michael Sanders	0.00%	10000	1010		78
Michael Thompson	0.22%	455	201
Miles Kuhl	0.00%	10000	1001		50
Mitchell Meissner	0.82%	122	91		56
Nelson Ledesma	0.35%	286	226		140
Nick Gabrelcik	0.61%	164	126		9
Nick Infanti	0.08%	1250	401		78
Nicolo Galletti	1.06%	94	71		62
Noah Goodwin	0.84%	119	201	0.30%	3	7.35	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Norman Xiong	0.23%	435	401		152
Paul Barjon	0.10%	1000	201		66
Petr Hruby	0.54%	185	276	0.20%	7	-0.2	QuinnBet: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Phichaksn Maichon	0.22%	455	501		3
Preston Summerhays	0.12%	833	251		69
R.J. Manke	0.04%	2500	751		7
Rayhan Thomas	0.41%	244	141		69
Rhein Gibson	0.17%	588	501		78
Rhett Johnson	0.00%	10000	501		134
Ricardo Celia	0.35%	286	501	0.20%	22	-0.2	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richard S. Johnson	0.00%	10000			134
Rick Lamb	0.66%	152	111		22
Rob Oppenheim	0.07%	1429	351		109
Robbie Higgins	0.02%	5000	501		146
Robby Shelton	0.92%	109	101		29
Robert Garrigus	0.05%	2000	501		74
Roger Sloan	0.84%	119	151	0.20%	16	-0.2	888sport: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ross Steelman	1.73%	58	34		1
Ryan Blaum	0.36%	278	276		149
Ryan Burnett	0.24%	417	301		56
Ryan McCormick	0.36%	278	201		78
Ryan Sullivan	0.04%	2500	501		129
Ryo Ishikawa	2.42%	41	51	0.50%	45	-0.5	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sam Choi	0.16%	625	276		40
Scott Gutschewski	0.17%	588	451		134
Sebastian Cappelen	0.20%	500	301		78
Stuart Macdonald	0.25%	400	401		109
Taylor Dickson	0.93%	108	111		99
Taylor Montgomery	0.50%	200	81		16
Theo Humphrey	0.32%	313	301		78
Tom Whitney	0.50%	200	126		45
Tommy Morrison	2.11%	47	34		2
Travis Trace	0.88%	114	111		120
Trent Phillips	0.95%	105	101
Trevor Cone	0.77%	130	141	0.10%	99	-0.1	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Trey Winstead	0.09%	1111	351		146
Turk Pettit	0.40%	250	151		134
Tyler Leach	0.31%	323	301		129
Tyler Wilkes	0.26%	385	176		99
Tyson Alexander	0.13%	769	351		36
Vicente Marzilio	0.18%	556	501		109
Wells Williams	0.01%	10000	251		64
Will Cannon	1.24%	81	111	0.30%	16	-0.3	QuinnBet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Chandler	0.25%	400	201		9
William Sides	2.55%	39	41	0.10%	56	-0.1	QuinnBet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wilson Furr	0.31%	323	201		62
Yuta Sugiura	0.58%	172	101		120
Zack Fischer	0.69%	145	81		78

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Vogelsong	0.19%	526	251		75
Alvaro Ortiz	0.93%	108	67		25
Andrew Kozan	0.60%	167	111		93
Augusto Nunez	0.51%	196	101		93
Austin Duncan	0.40%	250	126		93
Austin Hitt	1.08%	93	56		15
Barend Botha	0.83%	120	101		50
Ben Carr	1.12%	89	61		50
Ben Taylor	1.03%	97	81		6
Billy Tom Sargent	0.59%	169	111		119
Blades Brown	1.86%	54	34		34
Blaine Hale	0.45%	222	191		15
Braden Thornberry	0.50%	200	126		137
Brandon Berry	0.32%	313	201		34
Brandon Harkins	0.40%	250	141		93
Brandon Matthews	0.12%	833	251		152
Brandon Wu	0.56%	179	111		119
Brett Stegmaier	0.43%	233	151		119
Brett White	0.55%	182	191		25
Bryce Lewis	0.52%	192	111		93
Bryson Nimmer	0.46%	217	126		119
C.T. Pan	0.11%	909	126		93
Carl Yuan	1.02%	98	81		93
Carson Bacha	0.43%	233	126		119
Carson Lundell	0.21%	476	201		50
Carson Young	1.06%	94	46		93
Chad Sewell	0.43%	233	191		93
Chase Sienkiewicz	0.35%	286	191		137
Chez Reavie	0.81%	123	91		75
Chris Francoeur	0.80%	125	111		119
Chris Korte	0.65%	154	111		50
Christiaan Maas	1.41%	71	46		50
Cole Hammer	0.69%	145	81		15
Cole Sherwood	1.82%	55	41		2
Cooper Dossey	1.27%	79	41		75
Cristobal Del Solar	0.73%	137	81		25
Dan McCarthy	0.66%	152	126		137
Daniel Summerhays	0.48%	208	126		93
Daniel Wetterich	0.54%	185	201		15
David Kocher	0.53%	189	141		146
Davis Lamb	0.71%	141	111		75
Davis Shore	0.89%	112	71		75
Derek Hitchner	0.63%	159	141		34
Dillon Stewart	0.15%	667	201		146
Doc Redman	1.23%	81	51		93
Drew Nesbitt	0.68%	147	101		75
Dylan Menante	0.91%	110	67		34
Filip Jakubcik	0.98%	102	67		75
Frankie Harris	1.28%	78	71		75
George Leigh	0.11%	909	351		15
Gregory Solhaug	0.15%	667	251		50
Hayden Buckley	1.20%	83	61		154
Hunter Eichhorn	1.45%	69	41		50
Hunter Wolcott	0.44%	227	126		34
Ian Gilligan	0.67%	149	91		93
Ian Holt	0.83%	120	81		119
J.J. Grey	0.28%	357	301		93
Jack Maguire	0.33%	303	141		50
Jackson Buchanan	0.53%	189			6
Jackson Van Paris	0.75%	133	91		119
Jacob Solomon	0.55%	182	126		153
Jake Peacock	0.50%	200	126		50
James Song	0.17%	588	301		6
Jase Summy	1.18%	85	56		137
Jay Card	0.77%	130	111		75
Jeff Overton	0.28%	357	201		93
Jeremy Gandon	0.81%	123	91		6
Jim Knous	0.42%	238	201		137
Joe Weiler	0.51%	196	111		34
John Marshall Butler	0.51%	196	111		25
John Pak	1.01%	99	56		93
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	0.70%	143	67		93
Jorge Garcia	0.42%	238	191		34
Joseph Bramlett	0.96%	104	71		6
Joshua Creel	0.51%	196	126		75
Julian Suri	0.76%	132	111		50
Justin Biwer	0.53%	189	101		34
Justin Hastings	0.47%	213	201		75
Justin Suh	1.05%	95	71		15
Kaito Onishi	0.49%	204	111		93
Keller Harper	0.11%	909	351		119
Kevin Dougherty	1.18%	85	61		119
Kevin Tway	0.47%	213	151		15
Kihei Akina	0.57%	175	71		93
Kyle Westmoreland	0.69%	145	101		50
Logan McAllister	0.73%	137	81		93
Luke Guthrie	0.49%	204	201		155
Luke Gutschewski	0.72%	139	141		15
Luke Potter	0.53%	189	101		25
Mahanth Chirravuri	0.62%	161	101		25
Marshall Meisel	0.42%	238	301	0.10%	34	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mason Andersen	1.14%	88	101	0.20%	119	-0.2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Atkins	0.98%	102	81		119
Matt NeSmith	0.49%	204	126		137
Matthew Anderson	0.63%	159	111		15
Matthew Riedel	0.66%	152	101		75
Max Schliesing	0.15%	667	301		146
Maxwell Moldovan	0.85%	118	91		50
Michael Feagles	0.45%	222	126		119
Michael Johnson	1.46%	68	51		50
Michael Sanders	0.07%	1429	351		34
Miles Kuhl	0.01%	10000	201		50
Mitchell Meissner	0.86%	116	81		6
Nelson Ledesma	0.52%	192	111		137
Nick Gabrelcik	0.76%	132	91		50
Nick Infanti	0.31%	323	201		93
Nicolo Galletti	1.07%	93	71		50
Noah Goodwin	0.86%	116	111		6
Norman Xiong	0.53%	189	191		93
Paul Barjon	0.36%	278	126		34
Petr Hruby	0.64%	156	126		15
Phichaksn Maichon	0.47%	213	201		2
Preston Summerhays	0.34%	294	126		25
R.J. Manke	0.26%	385	301		2
Rayhan Thomas	0.66%	152	101		25
Rhein Gibson	0.39%	256	201		50
Rhett Johnson	0.02%	5000	201		146
Ricardo Celia	0.57%	175	191		50
Richard S. Johnson	0.01%	10000			146
Rick Lamb	0.72%	139	81		34
Rob Oppenheim	0.33%	303	201		119
Robbie Higgins	0.17%	588	251		137
Robby Shelton	0.90%	111	91		2
Robert Garrigus	0.27%	370	251		75
Roger Sloan	0.86%	116	101		34
Ross Steelman	1.11%	90	46		6
Ryan Blaum	0.60%	167	126		137
Ryan Burnett	0.48%	208	126		93
Ryan McCormick	0.58%	172	111		75
Ryan Sullivan	0.26%	385	251		75
Ryo Ishikawa	1.21%	83	56		50
Sam Choi	0.42%	238	126		50
Scott Gutschewski	0.38%	263	191		75
Sebastian Cappelen	0.41%	244	141		119
Stuart Macdonald	0.55%	182	191		119
Taylor Dickson	0.94%	106	81		93
Taylor Montgomery	0.70%	143	81		25
Theo Humphrey	0.51%	196	126		50
Tom Whitney	0.60%	167	81		50
Tommy Morrison	1.34%	75	51		1
Travis Trace	0.88%	114	81		75
Trent Phillips	0.84%	119	81
Trevor Cone	0.83%	120	81		50
Trey Winstead	0.38%	263	201		146
Turk Pettit	0.56%	179	101		119
Tyler Leach	0.62%	161	141		93
Tyler Wilkes	0.53%	189	111		93
Tyson Alexander	0.40%	250	201		34
Vicente Marzilio	0.39%	256	201		50
Wells Williams	0.22%	455	151		6
Will Cannon	1.05%	95	81		34
Will Chandler	0.46%	217	111		34
William Sides	1.27%	79	51		50
Wilson Furr	0.46%	217	111		93
Yuta Sugiura	0.72%	139	81		119
Zack Fischer	0.76%	132	81		75

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Mason Andersen	1.43%	70	176	0.90%	45	-2	Skybet: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Ryo Ishikawa	2.42%	41	51	0.50%	45	-2	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Frankie Harris	1.99%	50	67	0.50%	78	-2	VirginBet: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Mason Andersen	1.14%	88	101	0.20%	119	-1.5	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Marshall Meisel	0.42%	238	301	0.10%	34	-1.5	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.