Simulation Results: Maekyung Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Andy Ogletree	7.76%	13	36	5.10%	92	-5.1	Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Atiruj Winaicharoenchai	0.12%	833	226		36
Austen Truslow	2.82%	35	26		49
Baekjun Kim	0.58%	172	36		14
Bio Kim	0.78%	128	71		44
Bongsub Kim	0.07%	1429	126		99
Chaeuk Im	0.00%	10000			99
Chan Choi	0.31%	323	31		17
Changwoo Lee	0.04%	2500	141		26
Chanmin Jung	0.30%	333	67		30
Chan-Woo Kim	0.01%	10000			81
Charles Porter	0.15%	667	126		92
Charlie Lindh	0.23%	435	126		69
Chase Koepka	0.16%	625	51		30
Chieh-Po Lee	0.63%	159	71		19
Chonlatit Chuenboonngam	0.86%	116	111		81
Daehyun Kim	0.00%	10000	1001		135
Daihan Lee	0.04%	2500	201		17
Danny Lee	0.08%	1250	161		36
Danthai Boonma	0.99%	101	51		133
Denzel Ieremia	0.01%	10000	401		81
Dominic Foos	0.40%	250	126		58
Dongeun Kim	0.00%	10000	1001		81
Donghwan Lee	0.03%	3333	176		110
Dongmin Lee	0.15%	667	101		92
Doyeob Mun	3.09%	32	29		9
Ekpharit Wu	0.48%	208	71		36
Ervin Chang	0.04%	2500	201		26
Eunshin Park	0.15%	667	61		49
Garam Jeon	0.02%	5000	126		58
Gunn Charoenkul	0.23%	435	161		110
Gunwoong Park	0.00%	10000	251		125
Gyumin Lee	0.10%	1000	176		69
Haecheon An	0.00%	10000	51		110
Hakhyung Kim	0.04%	2500	126		36
Hanmil Jung	0.04%	2500	151		26
Heemin Chang	0.65%	154	56		81
Hongtaek Kim	1.62%	62	67	0.10%	92	-0.1	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hyungjoon Lee	0.39%	256	126		69
Hyunseo Park	0.00%	10000	201		65
Ian Snyman	1.44%	69	56		3
Il-Hwan Park	0.26%	385	76		69
Inchoon Hwang	0.01%	10000	751		69
Inhoi Hur	0.00%	10000	176		3
Jack Thompson	0.83%	120	91		110
Jaehan Chun	0.01%	10000	201		135
Jaeho Kim	0.04%	2500	101		49
Jaemin Hwang 859	0.01%	10000	226		123
Jaewoong Eom	0.03%	3333	151		19
Jazz Janewattananond	7.84%	13	13	0.20%	49	-0.2	Bet365: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jbe Kruger	0.01%	10000	301		9
Jed Morgan	0.28%	357	76		110
Jeongwoo Ham	5.52%	18	26	1.70%	110	-1.7	Bet365: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeunghun Wang	1.35%	74	21		9
Jeyi Son	0.00%	10000	41		68
Jiho Yang	0.07%	1429	201		69
Jin-Ho Choi	1.79%	56	17		19
Jinhwan Park	0.00%	10000	101		131
Julien Sale	1.54%	65	91	0.40%	66	-0.4	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Junggon Hwang	0.24%	417	51		30
Junghwan Lee	1.83%	55	34		14
Junhong Park	0.01%	10000	501		99
Junhyung An	0.00%	10000	1001		99
Junseok Lee	0.00%	10000	351		120
Junsub Park	0.03%	3333	176		64
Junsung Kim	0.01%	10000	401		138
Justin Quiban	0.05%	2000	201		133
Kevin Yuan	1.57%	64	111	0.70%	92	-0.7	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Khalid Attieh	0.00%	10000	1501		127
Kieran Vincent	2.74%	36	29		30
Kristoffer Broberg	0.01%	10000	276		81
Kyongjun Moon	0.32%	313	126		99
Kyungnam Kang	0.16%	625	61		36
Kyungnam Park	0.03%	3333	251		61
M.J. Maguire	0.79%	127	56		99
Maverick Antcliff	0.30%	333	141		99
Maximilian Rottluff	0.21%	476	161		110
Micah Shin	0.62%	161	101		55
Minchel Choi	0.03%	3333	141		66
Mingyu Cho	0.95%	105	46		2
Minhyeok Yu	0.00%	10000	101		69
Minhyuk Song	0.47%	213	67		1
Minjun Kim	0.03%	3333	251		9
Minkyu Kim	0.18%	556	126		6
Minsu Kim (May2008)	0.02%	5000	201		14
Minsu Kim 921	0.02%	5000	81		69
Nick Voke	3.41%	29	26		19
Ollie Schniederjans	0.50%	200	111		36
Pavit Tangkamolprasert	2.44%	41	41		55
Poom Saksansin	3.03%	33	36	0.30%	44	-0.3	Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Poosit Supupramai	0.14%	714	91		131
Rattanon Wannasrichan	0.94%	106	101		121
Rodrigo Lee	0.06%	1667	151		81
Sampson Zheng	7.91%	13			44
Sanghee Lee	0.86%	116	34		61
Sanghun Shin	0.81%	123	41		19
Sanghyun Kim	0.01%	10000	351		128
Sanghyun Park	0.35%	286	76		30
Sangmoon Bae	0.06%	1667	301		99
Sang-Yeop Lee	0.06%	1667	176		81
Santiago De la Fuente	0.20%	500	141		130
Sarit Suwannarut	0.70%	143	67		69
Sarut Vongchaisit	0.39%	256	176		125
Seonghyeon Jeon	0.03%	3333	201		99
Seonghyeon Kim	8.82%	11	15	2.30%	6	-2.3	Bet365: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
Settee Prakongvech	0.23%	435	151		99
Seukhyun Baek	0.00%	10000	601		128
Seungbin Choi	0.47%	213	101		69
Seunggu Kang	0.01%	10000	126		92
Seungsu Han	0.09%	1111	251		81
Seungtaek Oh	0.04%	2500	251		81
Sihwan Kim	0.01%	10000	401		137
Songgyu Yoo	0.09%	1111	101		69
Soomin Lee	0.60%	167	151		44
Steve Lewton	0.67%	149	151		19
Sungho Lee	0.03%	3333	176		92
Sungkug Park	0.01%	10000	201		36
Suradit Yongcharoenchai	0.07%	1429	201		49
Suteepat Prateeptienchai	0.67%	149	71		55
Taehoon Ok	3.12%	32	26		49
Tawit Polthai	0.04%	2500	226		110
Teayang Jung	0.04%	2500	51		36
Wei-Hsuan Wang	1.02%	98	91		58
Woo-Hyun Kim	0.27%	370			6
Woo-Suk Hwang	0.00%	10000
Wooyoung Cho	0.72%	139	46		110
Yeongsu Kim	0.06%	1667	251		121
Yetaek Lim	0.02%	5000	126		110
Yonggu Shin	0.24%	417	176		26
Yongjun Bae	0.45%	222	46		99
Yubin Jang	5.27%	19	26	1.50%	44	-1.5	Bet365: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yujun Jung	0.00%	10000	251		30
Yunseok Kang	0.06%	1667	176		81
Yustin Lee	0.01%	10000	176		61
Zhengkai Bai	0.01%	10000	301		69

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Andy Ogletree	7.76%	13	36	5.10%	92	-2	Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Seonghyeon Kim	8.82%	11	15	2.30%	6	-2	Bet365: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Jeongwoo Ham	5.52%	18	26	1.70%	110	-2	Bet365: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
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The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.