Simulation Results: Saudi Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Abdulhakim Alnajran 0.00% 10000 2501 108
Adam Bresnu 1.46% 68 41 9
Adam Elshamy 0.00% 10000 2001 77
Ahmad Baig 0.90% 111 67 15
Ahmed Marjan 0.01% 10000 1251 96
Ajeetesh Sandhu 1.22% 82 71 77
Alejandro Canizares 0.05% 2000 501 72
Aleksi Seppanen 0.00% 10000 1001 86
Ali Babtain 0.00% 10000 2501 99
Ali Mohamed Alkowari 0.00% 10000 4001 102
Angus Flanagan 0.67% 149 151 15
Atiruj Winaicharoenchai 0.65% 154 71 41
Ayoub Id-Omar 0.01% 10000 1501 93
Ayoub Ssouadi 0.00% 10000 1501 82
Berry Henson 0.41% 244 351 0.10% 22 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bio Kim 1.18% 85 86 37
Bjorn Hellgren 1.27% 79 61 1
Bowen Xiao 0.49% 204 101 37
Brett Rankin 0.91% 110 126 0.10% 59 -0.1 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Carl Jano Corpus 0.90% 111 81 56
Carlos Pigem 0.30% 333 226 22
Chanat Sakulpolphaisan 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 90 -0.1 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chapchai Nirat 1.27% 79 111 0.40% 15 -0.4 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charles Porter 1.18% 85 56 3
Charng-Tai Sudsom 0.74% 135 126 86
Chase Koepka 1.39% 72 91 0.30% 9 -0.3 Ladbrokes: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chien-Yao Hung 1.82% 55 67 0.30% 41 -0.3 Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chonlatit Chuenboonngam 1.27% 79 61 41
Daniil Sokolov 0.01% 10000 1001 71
Dodge Kemmer 0.29% 345 351
Dominic Foos 1.40% 71 71 22
Eduard Rousaud 0.12% 833 401 82
Ervin Chang 0.77% 130 126 3
Faisal Salhab 0.01% 10000 1251 77
Finlay Mason 0.31% 323 226 59
Gavin Hall 0.17% 588 90
George Kneiser 0.24% 417 201 34
Gunn Charoenkul 1.14% 88 56 66
Harry Walch 0.00% 10000 1001 72
Heemin Chang 2.19% 46 36 22
Ian Snyman 2.19% 46 29 41
Issa Abouelela 0.05% 2000 2501 96
Itthipat Buranatanyarat 0.39% 256 201 48
Jack Thompson 0.73% 137 81 2
James Piot 2.62% 38 29 22
Jazz Janewattananond 4.51% 22 16 6
Jediah Morgan 0.42% 238 101 22
Jeunghun Wang 2.74% 36 26 72
Johan Van Jaarsveldt 0.00% 10000 1001 86
John Catlin 3.76% 27 21 15
Jonathan Wijono 0.54% 185 176 8
Jose Toledo 0.97% 103 91 53
Joshua Grenville-Wood 0.10% 1000 351 48
Julien Sale 1.44% 69 41 48
Justin Quiban 0.97% 103 101 22
Kazuki Higa 5.77% 17 15 7
Khaled Attieh 0.02% 5000 1001 96
Khalid Alqunaibit 0.00% 10000 2501 104
Khalin H. Joshi 0.62% 161 151 34
Kosuke Hamamoto 1.07% 93 81 59
M.J. Maguire 1.79% 56 41 37
Manav Shah 0.25% 400 351 68
Matt Killen 0.70% 143 101 22
Matthew Cheung 0.67% 149 81 22
Max Kennedy 0.79% 127 81 53
Mehdi Fakori 0.03% 3333 751 56
Miguel Carballo 0.41% 244 151 82
Mohamed Abouelela 0.00% 10000 103
Naraajie E. Ramadhanputra 0.09% 1111 401 41
Niklas Regner 0.19% 526 351 34
Nitithorn Thippong 0.37% 270 176 72
Othman Almulla 0.00% 10000 1001 90
Othman Raouzi 0.01% 10000 1251 99
Poosit Supupramai 1.36% 74 41 48
Prince Khaled Saud Al Faisal 0.00% 10000 2501 106
Roberto Lebrija 0.23% 435 151 22
Rochdi Mekkaoui 0.00% 10000 1251 93
Runchanapong Youprayong 1.55% 65 46 5
S. Chikkarangappa 0.19% 526 601 72
Saleh Al Kaabi 0.00% 10000 2001 77
Sam Broadhurst 0.29% 345 351 53
Sampson Zheng 3.35% 30 13
Santiago De la Fuente 3.57% 28 26 15
Saptak Talwar 1.29% 78 81 0.10% 11 -0.1 BetMGM: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sarit Suwannarut 2.58% 39 29 15
Sarut Vongchaisit 2.21% 45 41 59
Saud Al Sharif 0.00% 10000 2001 99
Scott Vincent 5.96% 17 12 15
Sean Ramos 0.60% 167 111 59
Settee Prakongvech 1.65% 61 51 86
Shahriffuddin Ariffin 0.46% 217 151 68
Shane Kenneally 0.00% 10000 1501 104
Shergo Al Kurdi 0.00% 10000 1501 59
Shih-Chang Chan 0.69% 145 101 22
Siddikur Rahman 0.86% 116 101 56
Soomin Lee 2.11% 47 36 82
Steve Lewton 2.06% 49 56 0.30% 59 -0.3 PaddyPower: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Suradit Yongcharoenchai 0.99% 101 81 66
Tanapat Pichaikool 0.66% 152 91 11
Tawit Polthai 0.85% 118 81 77
Todd Sinnott 0.43% 233 176 22
Wei-Hsuan Wang 2.60% 38 26 13
Wei-Lun Chang 0.87% 115 111 37
Witchayapat Sinsrang 0.15% 667 501 41
Wooyoung Cho 1.78% 56 34 70
Yanwei Liu 0.58% 172 101 41
Yung-Hua Liu 0.48% 208 151 48
Zhengkai Bai 0.39% 256 111 93

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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