Simulation Results: Zimbabwe Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Breen	0.27%	370	501	0.10%			Spreadex: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Adilson Da Silva	0.31%	323
Agustin Errazuriz	0.41%	244	101
Akil Yousuf	0.00%	10000	2501
Albert Venter	0.38%	263	351	0.10%			Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Allen John	1.36%	74	51
Altin Van Der Merwe	1.44%	69	51
Andries Van Der Vyver	0.00%	10000	251
Anyway Katembenuka	0.00%	10000
Astin Arthur	0.05%	2000	401
Austin Bautista	4.43%	23	11
Benjamin Kedochim	0.23%	435	126
Benjamin Van Wyk	1.01%	99	101
Biggie Chibvuri	0.01%	10000	2501
Blessing Gondo	0.00%	10000
Bradley Kulaisi	0.00%	10000	2501
Brandon Pieters	0.19%	526	351
Braydon Amm	0.00%	10000	2501
Carlos Bustos	0.09%	1111	1251
Celestin Nsanzuwera	0.15%	667
Charl Barnard	0.12%	833	81
Chikayambidze Darlington	0.03%	3333	2501
Christiaan Burke	2.50%	40	19
Clive Nguru	0.01%	10000	2501
Cole Stevens	1.67%	60	101	0.70%			Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Conner Mackenzie	0.31%	323	351
Daniel Cronje	2.18%	46	26
David Amm	0.06%	1667	751
Davison Elijah	0.00%	10000
Dayne Moore	0.10%	1000	401
Dillon Germshuys	0.20%	500	301
Doug McGuigan	0.44%	227	351	0.20%			Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dylan Mostert	0.13%	769	401
Eric Wowor	0.06%	1667	1001
Ethan Smith	0.33%	303	351
Gabriel Morgan	0.30%	333	251
Gerhard Pepler	0.88%	114	141	0.20%			Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Graham Van Der Merwe	2.97%	34	23
Greg Snow	0.04%	2500	1001
Hannes Strooh	0.11%	909
Hayden Griffiths	0.39%	256	251
Haydn Porteous	1.81%	55	36
Heinrich Bruiners	0.59%	169	201	0.10%			Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hennie O'Kennedy	0.96%	104	81
Hennie Otto	0.87%	115	71
Herman Loubser	1.57%	64	46
Ignatius Mketekete	0.00%	10000	2501
Jack Allard	0.00%	10000
Jack Davidson	1.14%	88	56
Jaco Ahlers	4.66%	21	14
Jaco Prinsloo	5.74%	17	12
Jaco Van Zyl	0.75%	133	201	0.30%			Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jacques Blaauw	0.62%	161	111
Jacques De Villiers	0.46%	217	176
Jacques Van Der Merwe	0.35%	286	301
Jacquin Hess	0.14%	714	751
Jaden Deltel	0.03%	3333	2001
James Mack	0.51%	196	201
Jason Roets	1.56%	64	101	0.60%			Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jean Hugo	2.52%	40	46	0.40%			Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joe Knox	0.19%	526	1001	0.10%			Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joe Sullivan	0.13%	769	401
Jordan Burnand	1.10%	91	101	0.10%			Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Duminy	0.02%	5000	1501
Justin Walters	2.17%	46	17
Keagan Thomas	0.89%	112	101
Keanu Pestana	0.06%	1667	1501
Keegan Mclachlan	0.55%	182	201	0.10%			Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Keenan Davidse	2.06%	49	34
Kian Rose	0.10%	1000	601
Kieran Vincent	6.56%	15	6.5
Kyle Barker	0.90%	111	101
Kyle De Beer	1.13%	88	67
Kyle McClatchie	0.39%	256	251
Liam Grehan	0.36%	278	301
Liberty Gumisa	0.00%	10000	1501
Louis Albertse	3.19%	31	15
Lucky Ayisa	0.00%	10000
Luis Carrera	2.41%	41	26
Luke Brown	1.88%	53	26
Lyle Rowe	1.37%	73	36
Malcolm Mitchell	0.55%	182	111
Martin Rohwer	1.53%	65	41
Martin Vorster	3.25%	31	17
Matthew Spacey	0.20%	500	401
Merrick Bremner	0.01%	10000	1001
Michael Wallace	0.00%	10000	2501
Mitch Phigeland	0.01%	10000
Mohammad Rauf Mandhu	0.01%	10000	1501
Morris Schiefner	0.03%	3333	301
Neil Schietekat	0.62%	161	176	0.10%			Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Njoroge Kibugu	0.13%	769	201
Nyasha Muyambo	0.02%	5000	2501
Oliver Goldhill	0.41%	244	201
Otto Van Buynder	0.23%	435	501
Paul Chidale	0.00%	10000	1251
Pierre Pellegrin	0.08%	1250	751
Pierre Viallaneix	1.55%	65	51
Promise Sombreiro	0.02%	5000	2501
Quintin Wilsnach	0.15%	667	401
Rhys West	0.29%	345	276
Ricky Hendler	0.17%	588	301
Rigardt Albertse	0.04%	2500	1501
Robson Chinhoi	0.31%	323	151
Ronald Rugumayo	0.06%	1667	501
Rowan Lester	0.53%	189	201
Ruan Korb	1.29%	78	67
Rupert Kaminski	0.49%	204	226
Ryan Cairns	0.03%	3333	1001
Ryan Van Der Klis	0.27%	370	751	0.10%			Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Samuel Simpson	3.04%	33	29
Shaahid Mahmed	0.06%	1667	1501
Shaydon Johnson	0.00%	10000	1501
Shepard Chiwaya	0.00%	10000	2501
Simon Du Plooy	1.29%	78	126	0.50%			Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Simon Murungweni	0.00%	10000
Stals Swart	1.30%	77	67
Stephen Ferreira	0.23%	435	401
Stuart Krog	0.90%	111	126	0.10%			Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sydney Wemba	0.03%	3333	2501
Tafadzwa Nyamukondiwa	0.01%	10000	2501
Tariro November	0.00%	10000	2501
Tawana Mangoma	0.00%	10000	2501
Thabiso Ngcobo	0.07%	1429	1501
Thomas Sinclair	0.00%	10000
Thomas Spreadborough	0.42%	238	301	0.10%			Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tomas Gana	0.42%	238	126
Tonderayi Masunga	0.05%	2000
Toto Thimba	0.38%	263	1001	0.30%			Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Travis Procter	0.26%	385	251
Trevor Fisher, Jr.	0.99%	101	67
Tristan Leonard	0.18%	556	401
Tristen Strydom	1.22%	82	111	0.30%			Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tristin Galant	0.01%	10000	2501
Tyran Snyders	1.17%	85	71
Tyrone Ryan	0.49%	204	176
Victor Kachepatsonga	0.00%	10000	2501
Visitor Mapwanya	0.01%	10000	601
Vuyisani Makama	0.09%	1111	501
Warwick Purchase	0.45%	222	176
Willy Deus	0.00%	10000	1001
Wynand Dingle	1.29%	78	101	0.30%			Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Xander Basson	0.46%	217	401	0.20%			Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zachary Chegwidden	0.06%	1667	1001

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Cole Stevens	1.67%	60	101	0.70%			Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Jason Roets	1.56%	64	101	0.60%			Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Simon Du Plooy	1.29%	78	126	0.50%			Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly* - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the value in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and and the six advised each-way plays FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated on Mondays. Advised each-way plays will be posted on Tuesday afternoon once odds have settled and there is maximum opportunity to get the prices advertised. FRL plays will be posted on Wednesday or one day prior to the start of the event.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event for this year is available here. Results for 2024 are available here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.