Simulation Results: Kit Kat Group ProAm

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Agustin Errazuriz	0.48%	208
Albert Venter	0.14%	714
Allen John	1.62%	62
Altin Van Der Merwe	4.02%	25
Anthony Michael	0.45%	222
Astin Arthur	0.02%	5000
Benjamin Kedochim	0.13%	769
Benjamin Van Wyk	1.42%	70
Charl Barnard	0.07%	1429
Christiaan Burke	2.61%	38
Cole Stevens	2.22%	45
Conner Mackenzie	0.20%	500
Danie Van Niekerk	0.05%	2000
Daniel Cronje	1.73%	58
Dayne Moore	0.23%	435
Dylan Mostert	0.23%	435
Estiaan Conradie	0.40%	250
Ethan Smith	0.22%	455
Franklin Manchest	0.19%	526
Gerhard Pepler	1.39%	72
Graham Van Der Merwe	3.71%	27
Hayden Griffiths	0.29%	345
Haydn Porteous	2.20%	45
Heinrich Bruiners	0.75%	133
Hennie Otto	0.83%	120
Herman Loubser	2.16%	46
J.J. Senekal	1.09%	92
Jack Davidson	0.79%	127
Jaco Prinsloo	7.65%	13
Jaco Van Zyl	0.53%	189
Jacques Blaauw	0.81%	123
Jacques De Villiers	0.50%	200
Jacques Van Der Merwe	0.64%	156
Jacquin Hess	0.07%	1429
James Mack	0.64%	156
Jason Roets	2.13%	47
Jean Hugo	2.39%	42
Joe Sullivan	0.08%	1250
Jordan Burnand	1.32%	76
Jordan Duminy	0.01%	10000
Justin Walters	2.19%	46
Karabo Mokoena	0.06%	1667
Keagan Thomas	0.74%	135
Keanu Pestana	0.05%	2000
Keelan Africa	0.00%	10000
Keenan Davidse	3.15%	32
Kyle Barker	2.73%	37
Kyle De Beer	0.83%	120
Kyle McClatchie	0.26%	385
Liam Grehan	0.26%	385
Louis Albertse	2.56%	39
Luis Carrera	2.96%	34
Luke Brown	2.07%	48
Luke Jerling	0.42%	238
Lyle Pedro	0.00%	10000
Lyle Rowe	1.83%	55
Malcolm Mitchell	0.54%	185
Mandla Dlamini	0.00%	10000
Martin Rohwer	1.25%	80
Matthew Spacey	0.19%	526
Merrick Bremner	0.01%	10000
Mitch Phigeland	0.00%	10000
Musiwalo Nethunzwi	0.03%	3333
Neil Schietekat	0.65%	154
Oliver Goldhill	0.11%	909
Otto Van Buynder	0.25%	400
Pierre Pellegrin	0.03%	3333
Pierre Viallaneix	1.47%	68
Pieter Moolman	3.09%	32
Quintin Wilsnach	0.29%	345
Rhys Enoch	0.62%	161
Rhys West	0.23%	435
Ricky Hendler	0.13%	769
Rigardt Albertse	0.05%	2000
Robson Chinhoi	0.35%	286
Ronald Rugumayo	0.04%	2500
Rowan Lester	1.20%	83
Ruan Korb	1.50%	67
Rupert Kaminski	0.86%	116
Ryan Van Der Klis	0.47%	213
Samuel Simpson	3.37%	30
Sentanio Minnie	0.06%	1667
Stals Swart	0.97%	103
Stephen Ferreira	0.34%	294
Stuart Krog	0.89%	112
Thabiso Ngcobo	0.04%	2500
Thomas Spreadborough	0.30%	333
Tomas Gana	0.86%	116
Toto Thimba	0.28%	357
Travis Ladner	0.04%	2500
Travis Procter	0.28%	357
Trevor Fisher, Jr.	0.87%	115
Tristan Leonard	0.06%	1667
Tristen Strydom	0.57%	175
Tumelo Molloyi	0.00%	10000
Tyran Snyders	1.92%	52
Tyrone Ryan	0.49%	204
Vuyisani Makama	0.05%	2000
Warwick Purchase	0.55%	182
Wynand Dingle	1.08%	93
Xander Basson	0.60%	167
Yurav Premlall	6.51%	15

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN:
WIN:
WIN:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly* - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the value in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and and the six advised each-way plays FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated on Mondays. Advised each-way plays will be posted on Tuesday afternoon once odds have settled and there is maximum opportunity to get the prices advertised. FRL plays will be posted on Wednesday or one day prior to the start of the event.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event for this year is available here. Results for 2024 are available here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.