Simulation Results: Zimbabwe Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Akil Yousuf 0.00% 10000 3001 145
Albert Venter 0.08% 1250 301 78
Austin Bautista 0.38% 263 131 2
Benjamin Van Wyk 0.00% 10000
Biggie Chibvuri 0.05% 2000 1001 123
Bradley Kulaisi 0.00% 10000 2501 140
Brandon Meads 0.25% 400 251 49
Braydon Amm 0.00% 10000 1501 142
Brian Gondo 0.01% 10000 3001 130
C.J. Du Plessis 0.72% 139 201 0.20% 78 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Callum Mowat 0.17% 588 401 130
Celestin Nsanzuwera 0.00% 10000 2501 98
Chikayambidze Darlington 0.00% 10000 2501 86
Christiaan Basson 0.33% 303 501 0.10% 57 -0.1 Spreadex: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christiaan Burke 1.47% 68 29 53
Christian Kriek 0.04% 2500 601 86
Christopher Long 0.04% 2500 301 105
Clive Nguru 0.05% 2000 2501 105
Conner Mackenzie 0.28% 357 401 78
Danie Van Niekerk 0.79% 127 111 65
David Amm 0.08% 1250 601 78
David Meyers 0.28% 357 251 58
Davison Elijah 0.00% 10000 2501 150
Dayne Moore 0.14% 714 1001 59
Devon Valentine 0.00% 10000 601 105
Doug McGuigan 0.64% 156 201 0.10% 20 -0.1 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dylan Mostert 0.61% 164 251 0.20% 14 -0.2 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dylan O'Leary 0.04% 2500 1001 142
Emile Nshimyumuremyi 0.00% 10000 2001 152
Eric Wowor 0.04% 2500 751 105
Estiaan Conradie 0.38% 263 226 52
Franklin Manchest 0.25% 400 501 0.10% 98 -0.1 Skybet: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Fredrik From 1.77% 56 34 3
Gabriel Chibale 0.00% 10000 2501 138
Gerhard Pepler 2.07% 48 46 49
Graham Van Der Merwe 1.14% 88 71 28
Greg Snow 0.18% 556 1501 0.10% 78 -0.1 Skybet: 1500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Gregory Mckay 0.16% 625 501 86
Hayden Griffiths 0.07% 1429 1501 98
Heinrich Bruiners 1.65% 61 67 0.20% 14 -0.2 Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hennie O'Kennedy 1.51% 66 81 0.30% 14 -0.3 Skybet: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hennie Otto 1.06% 94 126 0.30% 7 -0.3 Skybet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Herman Loubser 1.41% 71 61 34
Hunter Epson 0.31% 323 226 71
J.C. Ritchie 8.08% 12 8 65
J.J. Senekal 2.49% 40 41 0.10% 28 -0.1 Spreadex: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jack Hawksby 0.54% 185 301 0.20% 61 -0.2 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jaco Prinsloo 3.27% 31 19 11
Jaco Van Zyl 1.13% 88 81 34
Jacques Blaauw 3.31% 30 15 34
Jacques De Villiers 0.52% 192 251 0.10% 20 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jacquin Hess 0.03% 3333 751 86
Jake Redman 0.16% 625 401 28
James Mack 0.88% 114 151 0.20% 112 -0.2 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Roets 0.99% 101 151 0.30% 65 -0.3 William Hill: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jean Hugo 4.77% 21 19 6
Joe Knox 0.29% 345 131 58
Joe Long 0.74% 135 201 0.20% 86 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jordan Burnand 0.17% 588 501 71
Jordan Duminy 0.02% 5000 601 71
Kayyam Rauf Mandhu 0.01% 10000 3001 138
Keagan Thomas 0.35% 286 251 123
Keanu Pestana 0.00% 10000 1001 134
Keegan Mclachlan 0.26% 385 401 61
Keegan Shutt 0.27% 370 201 105
Keelan Africa 0.00% 10000 2001 140
Kelvin Muchenje 0.00% 10000 2501 145
Kyle Barker 2.16% 46 34 20
Kyle De Beer 1.78% 56 67 0.30% 7 -0.3 Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kyle McClatchie 0.40% 250 251 18
Leon Vorster 0.04% 2500 751 123
Liam Grehan 0.21% 476 176 86
Louis De Jager 4.01% 25 23 86
Luca Filippi 0.59% 169 101 130
Lucky Ayisa 0.00% 10000 2001 116
Luis Carrera 1.01% 99 29 1
Luke Brown 1.78% 56 31 39
Luke Jerling 1.02% 98 111 0.10% 39 -0.1 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lyle Rowe 1.83% 55 46 39
M.J. Viljoen 3.52% 28 26 3
Madalitso Muthiya 0.54% 185 301 0.20% 71 -0.2 William Hill: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Malcolm Mitchell 2.60% 38 23 11
Martin Rohwer 2.19% 46 51 0.20% 11 -0.2 Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Martin Vorster 4.32% 23 11 98
Matipaishe Pasipanodya 0.00% 10000 2501 154
Matt Millar 0.00% 10000 1001 86
Matthew Spacey 0.21% 476 601 39
Michael Hollick 3.47% 29 19 71
Michael Wallace 0.01% 10000 751 123
Mikkel Antonsen 0.11% 909 451 34
Mohammad Rauf Mandhu 0.01% 10000 2501 112
Morton Kombai 0.00% 10000 3001 145
Mutahi Kibugu 0.01% 10000 1501 123
Neil Schietekat 1.09% 92 81 39
Nerudo Mregi 0.00% 10000 2501 148
Nevy Milazi 0.00% 10000 3001
Nick Cunningham 0.13% 769 351 135
Nyasha Muyambo 0.01% 10000 2501 53
Oliver Bekker 2.04% 49 41 28
Otto Van Buynder 0.62% 161 176 0.10% 78 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Paul Adam Chidale 0.00% 10000 1001
Paul Boshoff 0.33% 303 201 123
Peter Karmis 0.47% 213 176 105
Pierre Pellegrin 0.13% 769 501 71
Pierre Viallaneix 0.02% 5000 601 55
Pride Sembo 0.00% 10000 3001 86
Promise Sombreiro 0.07% 1429 1501 65
Quintin Wilsnach 0.43% 233 301 0.10% 28 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rhys West 0.70% 143 141 20
Ricky Hendler 1.45% 69 71 14
Robinson Owiti 0.00% 10000 2001 152
Robson Chinhoi 0.23% 435 251 7
Ronald Rugumayo 0.01% 10000 2501 116
Rourke Van Der Spuy 0.77% 130 126 98
Rowan Lester 0.06% 1667 176 86
Ruan Conradie 0.49% 204 276 0.10% 39 -0.1 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ruan De Smidt 0.30% 333 351 86
Ruan Korb 0.88% 114 176 0.30% 20 -0.3 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rupert Kaminski 1.69% 59 41 49
Ryan Cairns 0.10% 1000 401 55
Ryan Van Der Klis 0.31% 323 131 112
Samuel Simpson 0.42% 238 176 7
Sean Cronje 0.11% 909 1001 105
Shaahid Mahmed 0.01% 10000 2501 39
Shijie Li 0.00% 10000
Simon Du Plooy 0.44% 227 251 20
Simon Murungweni 0.00% 10000 3001 135
Slade Pickering 0.24% 417 201 116
Slenda Sithebe 0.00% 10000 2501 116
Stals Swart 0.87% 115 126 0.10% 20 -0.1 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Stefan Wears-Taylor 1.51% 66 81 0.30% 18 -0.3 Skybet: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Stephen Ferreira 0.28% 357 1001 0.20% 116 -0.2 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stuart Krog 0.62% 161 251 0.20% 20 -0.2 William Hill: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tafadzwa Nyamukondiwa 0.13% 769 751 116
Tafara Mpofu 0.00% 10000 3001 135
Tanaka Chatora 0.00% 10000 1001 116
Tawana Mangoma 0.00% 10000 3001 148
Terrance Keith 0.00% 10000 3001 142
Thomas Spreadborough 0.03% 3333 176 71
Tonderai Masunga 0.00% 10000 2001
Tongoona Charamba 0.00% 10000
Toto Thimba 0.12% 833 501 65
Trainos Muradzikwa 0.11% 909 2501 0.10% 130 -0.1 Skybet: 2500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Trevor Fisher, Jr. 0.98% 102 81 5
Tristen Strydom 0.17% 588 401 39
Tristin Galant 0.00% 10000 2001 123
Tyran Snyders 0.76% 132 81 28
Tyron Davidowitz 0.25% 400 351 155
Tyrone Ryan 0.08% 1250 351 58
Umar Davids 0.00% 10000 2001 155
Victor Kachepatsonga 0.00% 10000 2501 150
Visitor Mapwanya 0.13% 769 751 39
Warwick Purchase 0.49% 204 176 34
Werner Deyzel 0.16% 625 351 63
Wynand Dingle 1.24% 81 126 0.40% 86 -0.4 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Xander Basson 0.00% 10000 176 65

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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