Simulation Results: Zimbabwe Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Breen	0.27%	370	501	0.10%	84	-0.1	Spreadex: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Adilson Da Silva	0.31%	323			84
Agustin Errazuriz	0.41%	244	101		64
Akil Yousuf	0.00%	10000	2501		142
Albert Venter	0.38%	263	351	0.10%	128	-0.1	Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Allen John	1.36%	74	51		32
Altin Van Der Merwe	1.44%	69	51		1
Andries Van Der Vyver	0.00%	10000	251		7
Anyway Katembenuka	0.00%	10000			134
Astin Arthur	0.05%	2000	401		128
Austin Bautista	4.43%	23	11		2
Benjamin Kedochim	0.23%	435	126		9
Benjamin Van Wyk	1.01%	99	101		37
Biggie Chibvuri	0.01%	10000	2501		134
Blessing Gondo	0.00%	10000			139
Bradley Kulaisi	0.00%	10000	2501		119
Brandon Pieters	0.19%	526	351		29
Braydon Amm	0.00%	10000	2501		108
Carlos Bustos	0.09%	1111	1251		97
Celestin Nsanzuwera	0.15%	667			97
Charl Barnard	0.12%	833	81		97
Chikayambidze Darlington	0.03%	3333	2501		58
Christiaan Burke	2.50%	40	19		29
Clive Nguru	0.01%	10000	2501		84
Cole Stevens	1.67%	60	101	0.70%	12	-0.7	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Conner Mackenzie	0.31%	323	351		60
Daniel Cronje	2.18%	46	26		74
David Amm	0.06%	1667	751		91
Davison Elijah	0.00%	10000			108
Dayne Moore	0.10%	1000	401		74
Dillon Germshuys	0.20%	500	301		91
Doug McGuigan	0.44%	227	351	0.20%	23	-0.2	Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dylan Mostert	0.13%	769	401		44
Eric Wowor	0.06%	1667	1001		37
Ethan Smith	0.33%	303	351		122
Gabriel Morgan	0.30%	333	251		16
Gerhard Pepler	0.88%	114	141	0.20%	7	-0.2	Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Graham Van Der Merwe	2.97%	34	23		16
Greg Snow	0.04%	2500	1001		108
Hannes Strooh	0.11%	909			64
Hayden Griffiths	0.39%	256	251		115
Haydn Porteous	1.81%	55	36		41
Heinrich Bruiners	0.59%	169	201	0.10%	16	-0.1	Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hennie O'Kennedy	0.96%	104	81		44
Hennie Otto	0.87%	115	71		74
Herman Loubser	1.57%	64	46		27
Ignatius Mketekete	0.00%	10000	2501		108
Jack Allard	0.00%	10000			74
Jack Davidson	1.14%	88	56		64
Jaco Ahlers	4.66%	21	14		16
Jaco Prinsloo	5.74%	17	12		5
Jaco Van Zyl	0.75%	133	201	0.30%	52	-0.3	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jacques Blaauw	0.62%	161	111		52
Jacques De Villiers	0.46%	217	176		41
Jacques Van Der Merwe	0.35%	286	301		12
Jacquin Hess	0.14%	714	751		91
Jaden Deltel	0.03%	3333	2001		62
James Mack	0.51%	196	201		37
Jason Roets	1.56%	64	101	0.60%	12	-0.6	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jean Hugo	2.52%	40	46	0.40%	20	-0.4	Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joe Knox	0.19%	526	1001	0.10%	32	-0.1	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joe Sullivan	0.13%	769	401		108
Jordan Burnand	1.10%	91	101	0.10%	64	-0.1	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Duminy	0.02%	5000	1501		138
Justin Walters	2.17%	46	17		74
Keagan Thomas	0.89%	112	101		32
Keanu Pestana	0.06%	1667	1501		97
Keegan Mclachlan	0.55%	182	201	0.10%	84	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Keenan Davidse	2.06%	49	34		12
Kian Rose	0.10%	1000	601		97
Kieran Vincent	6.56%	15	6.5		9
Kyle Barker	0.90%	111	101		3
Kyle De Beer	1.13%	88	67		84
Kyle McClatchie	0.39%	256	251		52
Liam Grehan	0.36%	278	301		97
Liberty Gumisa	0.00%	10000	1501		122
Louis Albertse	3.19%	31	15		115
Lucky Ayisa	0.00%	10000			74
Luis Carrera	2.41%	41	26		52
Luke Brown	1.88%	53	26		64
Lyle Rowe	1.37%	73	36		23
Malcolm Mitchell	0.55%	182	111		74
Martin Rohwer	1.53%	65	41		64
Martin Vorster	3.25%	31	17		32
Matthew Spacey	0.20%	500	401		84
Merrick Bremner	0.01%	10000	1001		63
Michael Wallace	0.00%	10000	2501		58
Mitch Phigeland	0.01%	10000			115
Mohammad Rauf Mandhu	0.01%	10000	1501		128
Morris Schiefner	0.03%	3333	301		119
Neil Schietekat	0.62%	161	176	0.10%	64	-0.1	Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Njoroge Kibugu	0.13%	769	201		74
Nyasha Muyambo	0.02%	5000	2501		134
Oliver Goldhill	0.41%	244	201		61
Otto Van Buynder	0.23%	435	501		52
Paul Chidale	0.00%	10000	1251		91
Pierre Pellegrin	0.08%	1250	751		122
Pierre Viallaneix	1.55%	65	51		44
Promise Sombreiro	0.02%	5000	2501		119
Quintin Wilsnach	0.15%	667	401		27
Rhys West	0.29%	345	276		64
Ricky Hendler	0.17%	588	301		122
Rigardt Albertse	0.04%	2500	1501		48
Robson Chinhoi	0.31%	323	151		37
Ronald Rugumayo	0.06%	1667	501		97
Rowan Lester	0.53%	189	201		20
Ruan Korb	1.29%	78	67		9
Rupert Kaminski	0.49%	204	226		20
Ryan Cairns	0.03%	3333	1001		97
Ryan Van Der Klis	0.27%	370	751	0.10%	29	-0.1	Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Samuel Simpson	3.04%	33	29		5
Shaahid Mahmed	0.06%	1667	1501		97
Shaydon Johnson	0.00%	10000	1501		131
Shepard Chiwaya	0.00%	10000	2501		144
Simon Du Plooy	1.29%	78	126	0.50%	57	-0.5	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Simon Murungweni	0.00%	10000			142
Stals Swart	1.30%	77	67		48
Stephen Ferreira	0.23%	435	401		64
Stuart Krog	0.90%	111	126	0.10%	74	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sydney Wemba	0.03%	3333	2501		97
Tafadzwa Nyamukondiwa	0.01%	10000	2501		122
Tariro November	0.00%	10000	2501		139
Tawana Mangoma	0.00%	10000	2501		131
Thabiso Ngcobo	0.07%	1429	1501		115
Thomas Sinclair	0.00%	10000			84
Thomas Spreadborough	0.42%	238	301	0.10%	91	-0.1	Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tomas Gana	0.42%	238	126		23
Tonderayi Masunga	0.05%	2000			108
Toto Thimba	0.38%	263	1001	0.30%	64	-0.3	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Travis Procter	0.26%	385	251		48
Trevor Fisher, Jr.	0.99%	101	67		74
Tristan Leonard	0.18%	556	401		134
Tristen Strydom	1.22%	82	111	0.30%	91	-0.3	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tristin Galant	0.01%	10000	2501		139
Tyran Snyders	1.17%	85	71		4
Tyrone Ryan	0.49%	204	176		108
Victor Kachepatsonga	0.00%	10000	2501		122
Visitor Mapwanya	0.01%	10000	601		41
Vuyisani Makama	0.09%	1111	501		97
Warwick Purchase	0.45%	222	176		23
Willy Deus	0.00%	10000	1001		133
Wynand Dingle	1.29%	78	101	0.30%	44	-0.3	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Xander Basson	0.46%	217	401	0.20%	32	-0.2	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zachary Chegwidden	0.06%	1667	1001		48

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Cole Stevens	1.67%	60	101	0.70%	12	-2	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Jason Roets	1.56%	64	101	0.60%	12	-2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Simon Du Plooy	1.29%	78	126	0.50%	57	-2	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.