Simulation Results: Zambia Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Simfukwe, Jr.	0.02%	5000	1001		110
Adam Breen	0.16%	625	601		76
Agustin Errazuriz	2.29%	44	34		14
Albert Venter	0.22%	455	251		23
Allen John	1.71%	58	41		37
Altin Van Der Merwe	3.56%	28	15		31
Astin Arthur	0.03%	3333	401		48
Benjamin Kedochim	0.77%	130	76		76
Benjamin Van Wyk	1.60%	63	61		11
Beza Daka	0.00%	10000	2001		121
Biggie Chibvuri	0.00%	10000			110
Bradley Kulaisi	0.00%	10000	1001		55
Brandon Geere	0.01%	10000			55
Brandon Pieters	0.70%	143	201	0.20%	130	-0.2	Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Carlos Bustos	0.51%	196	301	0.20%	76	-0.2	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carter Rowe	0.12%	833	751		62
Charl Barnard	0.98%	102	81		37
Chikayambidze Darlington	0.08%	1250	501		63
Christiaan Burke	3.37%	30	19		70
Cole Stevens	1.17%	85	81		17
Conner Mackenzie	0.22%	455	401		45
Cosmas Mufaya	0.00%	10000			95
D. Ngandu	0.00%	10000	751		64
Daniel Cronje	1.78%	56	51		26
Darren Neyt	0.00%	10000			126
Dayne Moore	0.14%	714	301		52
Denmark Mulambo	0.00%	10000	1501		114
Dian Kruger	0.92%	109	301	0.60%	121	-0.6	Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dillon Germshuys	0.12%	833	1001		102
Dominic Musonda	0.00%	10000	1501		88
Drikus Joubert	0.10%	1000	1001		48
Elijah Ckikando	0.00%	10000			124
Emmanuel Chuma	0.00%	10000			127
Estiaan Conradie	1.50%	67	56		40
Ethan Smith	0.45%	222	201		59
Gabriel Chibale	0.00%	10000	1501		88
Gabriel Morgan	1.87%	53	61	0.20%	55	-0.2	Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gerhard Pepler	1.62%	62	34		130
Gilbert Chalwe	0.00%	10000	1501		105
Graham Van Der Merwe	3.63%	28	15		7
Gustavo Silva	1.59%	63	126	0.80%	35	-0.8	William Hill: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hayden Griffiths	0.28%	357	401		70
Haydn Porteous	2.32%	43	41		3
Heinrich Bruiners	1.18%	85	111	0.30%			Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Innocent Chalwe	0.00%	10000	1501		105
J.J. Senekal	0.76%	132	51		64
Jaco Prinsloo	7.87%	13	8		17
Jacques Blaauw	1.19%	84	29		37
Jacques De Villiers	1.15%	87	81		99
Jacques Van Der Merwe	0.72%	139	126		70
Jaden Deltel	0.08%	1250	751		31
James Mack	1.05%	95	71		40
Jason Roets	2.24%	45	41		2
Joe Sullivan	0.59%	169	126		26
Jordan Burnand	1.40%	71	71		35
Jordan Duminy	0.01%	10000	1001		64
Justin Walters	4.32%	23	15		21
Karabo Mokoena	0.05%	2000	1001
Keagan Thomas	0.56%	179	126		3
Keanu Pestana	0.02%	5000	1001		110
Keegan Mclachlan	0.42%	238	251		64
Keenan Davidse	2.24%	45	23		70
Kelvin Chibuye	0.00%	10000			102
Kian Coetzer	0.04%	2500			64
Kian Rose	0.31%	323	601	0.10%	76	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kyle Barker	2.69%	37	31		23
Kyle De Beer	1.83%	55	51		48
Kyle McClatchie	0.30%	333	251		26
Leonard Chibwe	0.00%	10000	1001		95
Liam Grehan	0.78%	128	131		76
Luke Brown	2.50%	40	23		31
Luke Jerling	0.52%	192	151		43
Lwazi Gqira	0.00%	10000	1001		105
Lyle Pedro	0.01%	10000	1001		120
Lyle Rowe	1.87%	53	29		11
Martin Leon	0.04%	2500	251		23
Martin Rohwer	1.60%	63	41		76
Matengere Kaira	0.00%	10000			129
Matt Millar	0.15%	667	251		88
Matthew Spacey	0.34%	294	276		45
Merrick Bremner	0.03%	3333	501		105
Michael Chuma	0.00%	10000	1251		88
Michael Wallace	0.03%	3333	1001		88
Morton Muwowo	0.00%	10000	1501		76
Musambo Kapoma	0.00%	10000			121
Neil Schietekat	0.49%	204	201		70
Nicholas Lavarone	0.00%	10000			114
Nikhil Rama	1.72%	58	67	0.20%	21	-0.2	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Njoroge Kibugu	0.21%	476	401		99
Ntengwa Mukosa	0.00%	10000	1001		114
Oliver Goldhill	0.19%	526	201		76
Otto Van Buynder	0.31%	323	501	0.10%	97	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Paul Chidale	0.00%	10000			88
Pierre Pellegrin	0.44%	227	201		26
Pierre Viallaneix	1.35%	74	34		5
Pieter Moolman	4.45%	22	11		7
Quintin Wilsnach	0.55%	182	151		7
Raphael Phiri	0.00%	10000	1251		105
Rhys Enoch	0.33%	303	151		59
Rhys West	0.16%	625	501		55
Ricky Hendler	0.10%	1000	601		76
Rigardt Albertse	0.10%	1000	751		14
Robson Chinhoi	0.46%	217	151		14
Ronald Rugumayo	0.05%	2000	751		52
Rowan Lester	0.97%	103	111	0.10%	70	-0.1	Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ruan Korb	1.42%	70	56		76
Rupert Kaminski	0.88%	114	126	0.10%	17	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryan Van Der Klis	0.89%	112	201	0.40%	48	-0.4	Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Samuel Simpson	3.52%	28	17		5
Shaunak Rama	0.01%	10000	1251		110
Shaydon Johnson	0.00%	10000	2001		114
Simon Du Plooy	0.77%	130	151	0.10%	31	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Simon Lumbwe	0.00%	10000	1001		76
Stalion Daka	0.00%	10000	2001		61
Stals Swart	0.92%	109	67		52
Stephen Ferreira	0.45%	222	226		11
Stuart Krog	0.84%	119	151	0.20%	1	18.75	William Hill: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sydney Wemba	0.04%	2500	1001		114
Tafadzwa Nyamukondiwa	0.01%	10000	1001		99
Tomas Gana	1.16%	86	67		26
Toto Thimba	0.78%	128	201	0.30%	45	-0.3	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Travis Ladner	0.09%	1111	601		64
Travis Procter	0.38%	263	251		97
Tristan Leonard	0.06%	1667	751		102
Tristen Strydom	0.58%	172	151		40
Tristin Galant	0.00%	10000			76
Vincent Kabaso	0.00%	10000			124
Visitor Mapwanya	0.10%	1000	501		43
Vuyisani Makama	0.09%	1111	1001		88
Warwick Purchase	0.81%	123	101		17
Wynand Dingle	0.84%	119	81		7
Xander Basson	0.78%	128	141	0.10%	114	-0.1	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Gustavo Silva	1.59%	63	126	0.80%	35	-2	William Hill: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Dian Kruger	0.92%	109	301	0.60%	121	-2	Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Ryan Van Der Klis	0.89%	112	201	0.40%	48	-2	Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.