Simulation Results: Zambia Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Musonda 0.00% 10000 1001 126
Aaron Simfukwe, Jr. 0.00% 10000 1251 45
Adrian Andrade 0.00% 10000 601 105
Albert Venter 0.03% 3333 751 97
Altin Van Der Merwe 2.97% 34 26 45
Austin Bautista 1.66% 60 29 53
Ben Van Wyk 0.42% 238 81 37
Boyd Kapalamoto 0.00% 10000 501 108
C.J. Du Plessis 0.94% 106 161 0.30% 45 -0.3 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carter Rowe 0.00% 10000 201 40
Christiaan Burke 1.32% 76 67 37
Christian Kriek 0.04% 2500 401 97
Christopher Long 0.02% 5000 201 85
Conner Mackenzie 0.90% 111 81 85
Conrad Makoto 0.00% 10000 501 113
D. Ngandu 0.00% 10000 1501 92
Danie Van Niekerk 0.21% 476 201 63
Daniel Cronje 0.17% 588 126 32
Daniel Van Tonder 11.97% 8.4 4.75 52
Dayne Moore 0.21% 476 301 20
Dominic Musonda 0.00% 10000 1501 97
Dylan Mostert 0.71% 141 226 0.30% 78 -0.3 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ethan Smith 0.39% 256 201 9
Francois Van Staden 0.00% 10000 301 72
Franklin Manchest 0.14% 714 501 65
Fredrik From 4.15% 24 19 20
Gabriel Chibale 0.00% 10000 1001 72
Gerhard Pepler 1.33% 75 36 9
Gilbert Chalwe 0.00% 10000 401 116
Graham Van Der Merwe 2.75% 36 29 40
Hayden Griffiths 0.02% 5000 501 66
Heinrich Bruiners 2.77% 36 36 28
Hennie O'Kennedy 1.11% 90 76 72
Hennie Otto 1.50% 67 46 8
Herman Loubser 0.89% 112 2
Hunter Epson 0.29% 345 201 80
Innocent Chalwe 0.00% 10000 1001 92
J.J. Senekal 2.09% 48 34 3
Jack Hawksby 0.95% 105 91 32
Jaco Prinsloo 4.26% 23 15 16
Jacques Blaauw 4.64% 22 13 9
Jacques De Villiers 0.81% 123 111 6
Jacquin Hess 0.05% 2000 226 97
Jake Redman 0.86% 116 126 0.10% 53 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Mack 0.75% 133 81 66
Jason Roets 1.55% 65 91 0.50% 53 -0.5 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joe Knox 0.18% 556 101 97
Joe Nawanga 0.00% 10000 97
Johan Theron 0.00% 10000 1001 85
Jordan Burnand 0.34% 294 81 57
Jordan Duminy 0.15% 667 176 40
Joseph Malembe 0.00% 10000 125
Keagan Thomas 0.08% 1250 251 51
Keanu Pestana 0.00% 10000 1001 85
Keegan Mclachlan 0.30% 333 176 37
Keegan Shutt 0.01% 10000 751 97
Kelly Tembo 0.00% 10000 1251 105
Kelvin Wemba 0.00% 10000 751 80
Kyle Barker 1.50% 67 41 121
Kyle De Beer 1.74% 57 51 20
Kyle McClatchie 0.36% 278 126 28
Liam Grehan 0.21% 476 251 9
Louis Albertse 1.15% 87 34 18
Luca Filippi 0.26% 385 41 66
Luke Brown 2.51% 40 46 0.30% 18 -0.3 Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Jerling 1.38% 72 76 0.10% 3 0.8875 Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lyle Rowe 3.58% 28 21 3
M.J. Viljoen 3.07% 33 17 16
Madalitso Muthiya 0.20% 500 501 85
Malcolm Mitchell 3.55% 28 12
Marcel Steyn Scholtz 0.03% 3333 151 32
Marcus Taylor 0.01% 10000 501 113
Martin Rohwer 2.72% 37 23 32
Martin Vorster 4.49% 22 17 9
Matthew Spacey 0.24% 417 276 20
Michael Chuma 0.00% 10000 126 63
Morton Muwowo 0.00% 10000 1001 105
Musambo Kapoma 0.00% 10000 501 123
Neil Schietekat 1.99% 50 61 0.40% 28 -0.4 Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ntengwa Mukosa 0.00% 10000 1501 118
Nyasha Muyambo 0.01% 10000 1001 92
Otto Van Buynder 0.34% 294 201 108
Patrick Mwendapole 0.00% 10000 1501 92
Paul Boshoff 0.01% 10000 251 62
Paul Chidale 0.00% 10000 1001 108
Pierre Pellegrin 0.16% 625 401 78
Pierre Viallaneix 0.02% 5000 751 61
Promise Sombreiro 0.03% 3333 2001 92
Quintin Wilsnach 0.45% 222 176 57
Raphael Phiri 0.00% 10000 1001 108
Rhys West 0.86% 116 126 0.10% 85 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ricky Hendler 1.11% 90 36 66
Robert Mofya 0.00% 10000 1001 72
Robson Chinhoi 0.25% 400 101 20
Rourke Van Der Spuy 1.15% 87 51 32
Rowan Lester 0.14% 714 176 66
Ruan Conradie 0.94% 106 176 0.40% 40 -0.4 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ruan Korb 0.52% 192 61 20
Rupert Kaminski 1.04% 96 101 0.10% 66 -0.1 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Van Der Klis 0.06% 1667 201 20
Samuel Simpson 1.39% 72 51 1
Simon Du Plooy 0.39% 256 201 20
Simon Lumbwe 0.00% 10000 751 97
Stalion Daka 0.00% 10000 201 85
Stals Swart 0.55% 182 126 45
Stefan Wears-Taylor 1.29% 78 34 28
Stephen Ferreira 0.17% 588 226 45
Stuart Krog 0.80% 125 151 0.10% 40 -0.1 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sydney Wemba 0.02% 5000 601 80
Tafadzwa Nyamukondiwa 0.01% 10000 1501 80
Tanaka Chatora 0.00% 10000 1001 122
Tatende Makunde 0.00% 10000 1001 116
Teleka Chundama 0.00% 10000 401 124
Thabang Simon 0.00% 10000 1001 108
Thomas Spreadborough 0.18% 556 151 59
Thomo Mokgatle 0.00% 10000 1001 127
Tomas Gana 1.07% 93 176 0.50% 45 -0.5 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Toto Thimba 0.13% 769 501 72
Trevor Fisher, Jr. 1.45% 69 34 53
Tristen Strydom 0.20% 500 251 59
Tyran Snyders 0.57% 175 151 80
Tyron Davidowitz 0.06% 1667 226 118
Wallie Coetsee 0.04% 2500 401 72
Warwick Purchase 0.34% 294 81 9
Werner Deyzel 0.21% 476 126 118
Wynand Dingle 0.83% 120 126 9
Xander Basson 0.34% 294 126 6
Zack Chegwidden 0.00% 10000 201 113

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


© Copyright 1999-2025 Tour-Tips.com.
All rights reserved.

This Week's Updates