Simulation Results: SunBet Challenge - Wingate Park

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Albert Venter 0.01% 10000 751 25
Allen John 0.15% 667 46 98
Allister De Kock 0.00% 10000 2001 86
Altin Van Der Merwe 2.45% 41 41 52
Anthony Michael 0.01% 10000 351 49
Austin Bautista 0.74% 135 46 3
Ben Van Wyk 1.05% 95 76 50
Brandon Meads 0.00% 10000 501 75
C.J. Du Plessis 0.39% 256 226 75
Christiaan Basson 0.05% 2000 401 52
Christiaan Burke 0.30% 333 141 8
Christian Kriek 0.00% 10000 751 44
Christo Roos 0.00% 10000 1001 119
Conner Mackenzie 0.13% 769 226 46
Danie Van Niekerk 0.07% 1429 276 75
Doug McGuigan 0.11% 909 226 98
Dylan Mostert 0.10% 1000 351 86
Eric Wowor 0.00% 10000 2001 75
Estiaan Conradie 0.17% 588 111 3
Ethan Smith 0.17% 588 276 38
Franklin Manchest 0.00% 10000 751 86
Fredrik From 0.21% 476 61 25
George Coetzee 6.55% 15 15 25
Gerhard Pepler 1.02% 98 41 21
Graham Van Der Merwe 0.90% 111 61 25
Gregory Mckay 0.13% 769 201 38
Hayden Griffiths 0.02% 5000 351 112
Heinrich Bruiners 2.18% 46 67 0.70% 119 -0.7 Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hennie O'Kennedy 0.34% 294 201 106
Hennie Otto 0.16% 625 71 106
Herman Loubser 2.71% 37 23 13
Irvin Mazibuko 0.00% 10000 2501 112
J.J. Senekal 1.37% 73 56 52
Jack Hawksby 0.09% 1111 176 50
Jaco Ahlers 4.91% 20 29 1.50% 75 -1.5 Spreadex: 28/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jaco Prinsloo 6.30% 16 19 1.10% 68 -1.1 Spreadex: 18/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jacques Blaauw 1.27% 79 31 13
Jacques De Villiers 0.11% 909 176 52
Jacquin Hess 0.00% 10000 601 8
Jake Redman 0.15% 667 131 25
James Mack 0.19% 526 176 3
James Pennington 0.01% 10000 226 44
Jason Broomhead 0.00% 10000 751 75
Jason Roets 0.51% 196 141 8
Jastice Mashego 0.00% 10000 1501 98
Jean Hugo 3.72% 27 26 52
Jean-Paul Strydom 0.25% 400 201 2
Joe Knox 0.02% 5000 301 106
Joe Long 0.92% 109 71 13
Jonathan Broomhead 2.00% 50 19 1
Jordan Burnand 0.17% 588 126 52
Jordan Duminy 0.01% 10000 251 36
Karabo Mokoena 0.01% 10000 1001 86
Keagan Thomas 0.05% 2000 226 52
Keanu Pestana 0.00% 10000 1251 112
Keegan Mclachlan 0.03% 3333 276 119
Keelan Africa 0.00% 10000 2501 131
Keelan Van Wyk 0.11% 909 351 38
Keenan Davidse 2.58% 39 41 0.10% 68 -0.1 Spreadex: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kieran Vincent 4.69% 21 17 25
Kyle Barker 0.97% 103 51 7
Kyle De Beer 2.24% 45 36 21
Kyle McClatchie 0.23% 435 176 86
Leon Vorster 0.00% 10000 751 75
Liam Grehan 0.17% 588 176 124
Louis Albertse 2.55% 39 34 21
Luca Filippi 0.14% 714 101 52
Luis Carrera 1.04% 96 19 38
Luke Brown 1.29% 78 67 124
Luke Jerling 0.92% 109 51 75
Luke Mayo 0.02% 5000 751 106
Lyle Rowe 0.76% 132 67 31
M.J. Viljoen 1.08% 93 51 112
Makhetha Mazibuko 0.00% 10000 2501 119
Mandla Dlamini 0.00% 10000 2001 106
Marcel Steyn Scholtz 0.01% 10000 301 68
Marcus Taylor 0.01% 10000 301 13
Martin Rohwer 1.48% 68 46 38
Martin Vorster 3.33% 30 29 13
Matthew Spacey 0.04% 2500 301 31
Michael Hollick 5.21% 19 16 86
Mikkel Antonsen 0.17% 588 201 52
Musiwalo Nethunzwi 0.01% 10000 1001 38
Neil Schietekat 0.45% 222 101 31
Nick Cunningham 0.00% 10000 2001 112
Nikhil Rama 1.26% 79 81 52
Oliver Bekker 2.01% 50 46 52
Otto Van Buynder 0.02% 5000 1001 47
Paul Boshoff 0.10% 1000 81 47
Peter Karmis 0.20% 500 176 86
Pierre Pellegrin 0.01% 10000 1251 68
Pierre Viallaneix 0.09% 1111 301 36
Pieter Moolman 7.89% 13 13 0.20% 52 -0.2 Bet365: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Quintin Wilsnach 0.05% 2000 251 98
Rhys West 0.21% 476 226 75
Ricky Hendler 0.96% 104 76 21
Robson Chinhoi 0.06% 1667 201 106
Rourke Van Der Spuy 0.33% 303 111 75
Rowan Lester 0.22% 455 176 31
Ruan Conradie 0.09% 1111 201 13
Ruan De Smidt 0.14% 714 251 98
Ruan Groenewald 0.01% 10000 1001 86
Ruan Korb 0.22% 455 126 13
Rupert Kaminski 0.85% 118 111 52
Ryan Van Der Klis 0.12% 833 201 98
Samuel Simpson 0.49% 204 41 52
Sean Cronje 0.01% 10000 601 86
Sentanio Minnie 0.01% 10000 451 124
Simon Du Plooy 0.04% 2500 351 8
Slade Pickering 0.00% 10000 2001 129
Stals Swart 0.47% 213 176 68
Stefan Wears-Taylor 0.19% 526 176 134
Stephen Ferreira 0.04% 2500 501 98
Stuart Krog 0.24% 417 251 86
Tafadzwa Nyamukondiwa 0.00% 10000 1001 129
Thabiso Ngcobo 0.00% 10000 2001 112
Thanda Mavundla 0.00% 10000 2001 132
Thomas Spreadborough 0.01% 10000 601 75
Tomas Gana 0.05% 2000 351 68
Toto Thimba 0.01% 10000 601 98
Trevor Fisher, Jr. 0.60% 167 67 52
Trevor Mahoney 0.00% 10000 1001 124
Tristen Strydom 0.04% 2500 301 68
Tumelo Molloyi 0.00% 10000 1001 124
Tyran Snyders 0.81% 123 101 8
Tyron Davidowitz 0.03% 3333 301 52
Tyrone Ryan 0.02% 5000 251 31
Ulrich Van Den Berg 0.13% 769 151 134
Umar Davids 0.00% 10000 2001 133
Warwick Purchase 0.15% 667 111 13
Werner Deyzel 0.01% 10000 326 119
Wynand Dingle 0.79% 127 91 86
Xander Basson 0.57% 175 76 86
Yurav Premlall 8.84% 11 11 3
Zack Chegwidden 0.00% 10000 1501 112

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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