Simulation Results: SunBet Challenge - Wild Coast Sun

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Albert Venter 0.13% 769 501 14
Alex Haindl 0.00% 10000 1501 32
Allen John 0.50% 200 101 19
Altin Van Der Merwe 1.88% 53 56 0.10% 51 -0.1 Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Anthony Michael 0.22% 455 251 14
Austin Bautista 1.93% 52 46 1
Ben Van Wyk 1.02% 98 91 32
Brandon Meads 0.22% 455 501 61
C.J. Du Plessis 0.79% 127 151 0.10% 117 -0.1 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christiaan Basson 0.27% 370 301 114
Christiaan Burke 1.21% 83 71 24
Christian Kriek 0.09% 1111 751 19
Colin Nel 0.33% 303 276 83
Conner Mackenzie 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 51 -0.1 BetMGM: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Danie Van Niekerk 0.34% 294 251 83
David Amm 0.07% 1429 351 106
Doug McGuigan 0.35% 286 251 99
Dylan Mostert 0.34% 294 351 0.10% 83 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Eric Wowor 0.07% 1429 1251 109
Estiaan Conradie 0.91% 110 81 24
Ethan Smith 0.69% 145 201 0.20% 42 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Franklin Manchest 0.19% 526 751 0.10% 71 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fredrik From 1.11% 90 51 24
George Coetzee 3.10% 32 19 99
Gerhard Pepler 1.54% 65 46 14
Graham Van Der Merwe 1.52% 66 61 51
Gregory Mckay 0.46% 217 201 109
Hayden Griffiths 0.13% 769 501 48
Heinrich Bruiners 1.62% 62 71 0.20% 19 -0.2 PaddyPower: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hennie O'Kennedy 0.83% 120 251 0.40% 61 -0.4 PaddyPower: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Herman Loubser 2.68% 37 26 5
J.J. Senekal 1.50% 67 71 0.10% 71 -0.1 PaddyPower: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jacques Blaauw 2.17% 46 23 51
Jacques De Villiers 0.63% 159 176 0.10% 5 0.64583333333333 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jacques Van Der Merwe 0.25% 400 71 61
Jacquin Hess 0.16% 625 401 61
Jake Redman 0.76% 132 101 32
James Mack 0.86% 116 101 42
Jason Broomhead 0.03% 3333 1001 51
Jason Roets 1.40% 71 67 28
Jastice Mashego 0.03% 3333 1501 83
Jean Hugo 2.70% 37 29 28
Jean-Paul Strydom 1.40% 71 101 0.40% 51 -0.4 Boyle Sports: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joe Knox 0.15% 667 501 5
Jonathan Broomhead 2.98% 34 12 117
Jonathan Waschefort 0.02% 5000 1501 114
Jordan Burnand 0.55% 182 151 61
Jordan Duminy 0.33% 303 251 50
Karabo Mokoena 0.11% 909 2001 0.10% 106 -0.1 Bet365: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Keagan Thomas 0.31% 323 276 83
Keanu Pestana 0.01% 10000 1501 83
Keegan Mclachlan 0.19% 526 251 83
Keenan Davidse 2.33% 43 34 51
Kian Rose 2.26% 44 81 1.00% 61 -1 Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kyle Barker 2.23% 45 34 8
Kyle De Beer 2.28% 44 41 14
Kyle McClatchie 0.51% 196 201 42
Leon Vorster 0.09% 1111 751 96
Liam Grehan 0.37% 270 251 71
Lindani Ndwandwe 0.02% 5000 1251 120
Logan Leisher 0.01% 10000 301 106
Luca Filippi 0.47% 213 141 122
Luis Carrera 1.74% 57 21 71
Luke Brown 1.02% 98 86 37
Luke Jerling 1.27% 79 71 19
Luke Mayo 0.15% 667 751 99
Lyle Rowe 1.63% 61 67 0.10% 3 0.61 Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
M.J. Viljoen 1.36% 74 46 37
Madalitso Muthiya 0.22% 455 351
Makhetha Mazibuko 0.05% 2000 2001 71
Malcolm Mitchell 1.78% 56 21 37
Marcel Steyn Scholtz 0.13% 769 351 111
Martin Rohwer 1.58% 63 51
Matthew Spacey 0.35% 286 251 71
Michael Hollick 2.29% 44 26 2
Mikkel Antonsen 0.50% 200 251 0.10% 96 -0.1 BetMGM: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Musiwalo Nethunzwi 0.16% 625 751 71
Neil Schietekat 1.20% 83 101 0.20% 83 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nick Cunningham 0.02% 5000 2001 117
Nikhil Rama 1.79% 56 71 0.40% 103 -0.4 PaddyPower: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Oliver Bekker 1.93% 52 41 71
Otto Van Buynder 0.28% 357 351 99
Peter Karmis 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 37 -0.1 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Pierre Viallaneix 0.46% 217 251 0.10% 32 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Pieter Moolman 4.37% 23 15 8
Quintin Wilsnach 0.29% 345 276 32
Rhys West 0.53% 189 251 0.10% 28 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Richard Kruger 0.00% 10000 2501 111
Ricky Hendler 1.60% 63 67 0.10% 83 -0.1 Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Robert Mavundla 0.00% 10000 2501 124
Robson Chinhoi 0.34% 294 201 83
Rourke Van Der Spuy 0.68% 147 141 46
Rowan Lester 0.78% 128 176 0.20% 96 -0.2 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ruan Conradie 0.71% 141 151 11
Ruan De Smidt 0.36% 278 201 61
Ruan Groenewald 0.09% 1111 351 83
Ruan Korb 0.98% 102 71 51
Ruben Van Der Berg 0.00% 10000 1001 103
Rupert Kaminski 1.10% 91 126 0.30% 24 -0.3 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Van Der Klis 0.32% 313 226 28
Samuel Simpson 1.04% 96 56 3
Sean Cronje 0.09% 1111 751 71
Sentanio Minnie 0.09% 1111 501 61
Simon Du Plooy 0.78% 128 176 0.20% 51 -0.2 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Slade Pickering 0.04% 2500 2001 19
Stals Swart 0.83% 120 201 0.30% 42 -0.3 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stuart Krog 0.46% 217 276 0.10% 8 -0.1 PaddyPower: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tafadzwa Nyamukondiwa 0.02% 5000 2001 71
Thabiso Ngcobo 0.04% 2500 2001 111
Thanda Mavundla 0.02% 5000 1251 14
Thomas Spreadborough 0.10% 1000 751 71
Tomas Gana 0.29% 345 351 61
Toto Thimba 0.16% 625 601 120
Trevor Fisher, Jr. 1.04% 96 56 12
Trevor Mahoney 0.04% 2500 1501 48
Tristen Strydom 0.25% 400 301 83
Tyran Snyders 1.71% 58 67 0.20% 12 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tyron Davidowitz 0.21% 476 351 61
Tyrone Ryan 0.35% 286 251 71
Umar Davids 0.00% 10000 2001 123
Warwick Purchase 0.64% 156 91 37
Werner Deyzel 0.07% 1429 501 114
Wynand Dingle 1.04% 96 111 0.10% 47 -0.1 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Xander Basson 0.85% 118 126 0.10% 51 -0.1 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yurav Premlall 5.09% 20 12 83
Zack Chegwidden 0.01% 10000 1001 103

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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