Simulation Results: SunBet Challenge - Umhlali

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva 0.33% 303 46 53
Albert Venter 0.01% 10000 551 87
Alex Haindl 0.00% 10000 1001 110
Allen John 0.71% 141 67 10
Altin Van Der Merwe 1.80% 56 67 0.30% 25 -0.3 Skybet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anthony Michael 0.13% 769 161 20
Astin Arthur 0.00% 10000 251 20
Austin Bautista 2.91% 34 23 62
Ben Van Wyk 0.42% 238 181 15
Brandon Meads 0.04% 2500 1251 106
Brandon Stone 16.42% 6.1 8 4.50% 25 -4.5 Spreadex: 7/1, 6pl, 1/5
C.J. Du Plessis 0.22% 455 201 73
Christiaan Basson 0.01% 10000 601 87
Christiaan Burke 0.93% 108 51 37
Christian Kriek 0.01% 10000 551 77
Colin Nel 0.03% 3333 301 49
Conner Mackenzie 0.10% 1000 326 119
Danie Van Niekerk 0.01% 10000 451 62
Daniel Van Tonder 5.75% 17 10 127
Doug McGuigan 0.04% 2500 551 44
Dylan Mostert 0.26% 385 226 87
Eric Wowor 0.01% 10000 2001 62
Estiaan Conradie 0.66% 152 67 37
Ethan Smith 0.26% 385 301 62
Franklin Manchest 0.02% 5000 1001 73
Fredrik From 0.38% 263 111
Gerhard Pepler 1.14% 88 67 6
Graham Van Der Merwe 0.77% 130 111 53
Gregory Mckay 0.01% 10000 376 106
Hayden Griffiths 0.00% 10000 601 8
Haydn Porteous 0.27% 370 176 10
Heinrich Bruiners 1.16% 86 101 0.20% 99 -0.2 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hennie O'Kennedy 0.20% 500 451 30
Herman Loubser 4.14% 24 21 87
J.J. Senekal 0.67% 149 126 37
Jack Hawksby 0.07% 1429 301 53
Jaco Prinsloo 5.13% 19 26 1.30% 4 2.6 Spreadex: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jacques Blaauw 1.96% 51 41 114
Jacques De Villiers 0.16% 625 151 25
Jacquin Hess 0.00% 10000 551 73
James Mack 0.11% 909 181 44
James Pennington 0.00% 10000 551 53
Jason Broomhead 0.00% 10000 1001 62
Jason Roets 0.70% 143 121 77
Jean Hugo 2.83% 35 46 0.70% 77 -0.7 Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jean-Paul Strydom 0.52% 192 126 52
Joe Knox 0.04% 2500 301 110
Jonathan Broomhead 2.69% 37 17 30
Jordan Burnand 0.11% 909 301 87
Jordan Duminy 0.01% 10000 501 62
Karabo Mokoena 0.00% 10000 1501 110
Keagan Thomas 0.04% 2500 601 37
Keanu Pestana 0.00% 10000 1501 53
Keegan Mclachlan 0.03% 3333 401 53
Keelan Van Wyk 0.05% 2000 276 44
Keenan Davidse 1.42% 70 61 48
Kyle Barker 1.90% 53 41 4
Kyle De Beer 2.06% 49 46 87
Kyle McClatchie 0.26% 385 151 37
Leon Vorster 0.00% 10000 1501 51
Liam Grehan 0.03% 3333 401 77
Lindani Ndwandwe 0.00% 10000 2501 123
Louis Albertse 2.30% 43 41 1
Luca Filippi 0.00% 10000 401 127
Luis Carrera 1.75% 57 34 15
Luke Brown 1.09% 92 46 30
Luke Jerling 2.41% 41 36 114
Luke Mayo 0.02% 5000 1001 122
Lyle Rowe 2.07% 48 46 10
M.J. Viljoen 1.19% 84 81 6
Malcolm Mitchell 0.69% 145 36 77
Mandla Dlamini 0.00% 10000 2001 123
Marcel Steyn Scholtz 0.01% 10000 751 87
Marcus Taylor 0.01% 10000 276 99
Martin Vorster 5.15% 19 21 0.40% 20 -0.4 BetMGM: 20/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matthew Spacey 0.02% 5000 301 62
Michael Hollick 5.37% 19 21 0.60% 87 -0.6 Boyle Sports: 20/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mikkel Antonsen 0.09% 1111 401 87
Neil Schietekat 0.34% 294 176 77
Nick Cunningham 0.00% 10000 2501 114
Nikhil Rama 1.22% 82 126 0.40% 25 -0.4 Unibet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Oliver Bekker 1.06% 94 86 53
Otto Van Buynder 0.02% 5000 751 62
Paul Boshoff 0.07% 1429 176 53
Peter Karmis 0.17% 588 251 62
Pierre Viallaneix 0.04% 2500 301 15
Pieter Moolman 7.31% 14 14 0.20% 2 0.16 Spreadex: 13/1, 6pl, 1/5
Quintin Wilsnach 0.04% 2500 401 77
Rhys West 0.06% 1667 251 77
Richard Kruger 0.00% 10000 1251 99
Ricky Hendler 0.74% 135 91 37
Robson Chinhoi 0.04% 2500 376 30
Ronald Rugumayo 0.00% 10000 451 87
Rourke Van Der Spuy 0.12% 833 251 99
Rowan Lester 0.22% 455 176 49
Ruan Conradie 0.21% 476 161 25
Ruan De Smidt 0.06% 1667 326 36
Ruan Groenewald 0.00% 10000 1001 110
Ruan Korb 0.23% 435 151 20
Ruben Van Der Berg 0.00% 10000 501 10
Rupert Kaminski 0.51% 196 181 77
Ryan Van Der Klis 0.22% 455 141 8
Samuel Simpson 1.09% 92 51 37
Sean Cronje 0.01% 10000 2001 73
Sentanio Minnie 0.00% 10000 601 87
Simon Du Plooy 0.12% 833 326 99
Siyanda Mwandla 0.00% 10000 1501 119
Slade Pickering 0.01% 10000 2001 62
Stals Swart 0.27% 370 301 87
Stefan Wears-Taylor 0.08% 1250 276 119
Stephen Ferreira 0.02% 5000 1001 106
Stuart Krog 0.28% 357 251 30
Tafadzwa Nyamukondiwa 0.00% 10000 2501 15
Thabiso Ngcobo 0.00% 10000 2501 44
Thanda Mavundla 0.00% 10000 1251 62
Thomas Spreadborough 0.00% 10000 1501 114
Tomas Gana 0.05% 2000 751 30
Toto Thimba 0.02% 5000 1001 99
Trevor Fisher, Jr. 1.01% 99 41 77
Tristen Strydom 0.02% 5000 1001 20
Tyran Snyders 1.11% 90 71 3
Tyron Davidowitz 0.02% 5000 501 99
Tyrone Ryan 0.05% 2000 251 10
Umar Davids 0.00% 10000 2501 126
Warwick Purchase 0.07% 1429 201 114
Werner Deyzel 0.00% 10000 1501 123
Wynand Dingle 0.54% 185 126 15
Xander Basson 0.45% 222 131 53
Zack Chegwidden 0.00% 10000 1501 106

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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