Simulation Results: Souther Africa Tour Championship
| Player |
Win % |
TT Odds |
Best Odds |
Kelly |
Result |
P/L |
E/W Play |
| Allen John |
0.34% |
294 |
56 |
|
23 |
|
|
| Altin Van Der Merwe |
0.09% |
1111 |
91 |
|
2 |
|
|
| Austin Bautista |
3.20% |
31 |
29 |
|
7 |
|
|
| Benjamin Follett-Smith |
1.35% |
74 |
29 |
|
20 |
|
|
| Brandon Stone |
14.07% |
7.1 |
7.5 |
0.90% |
17 |
-0.9 |
Bet365: 6/1, 5pl, 1/4 |
| Bryce Easton |
5.57% |
18 |
23 |
1.30% |
7 |
-1.3 |
Ladbrokes: 22/1, 5pl, 1/5 |
| Christiaan Burke |
0.70% |
143 |
26 |
|
12 |
|
|
| Daniel Van Tonder |
13.17% |
7.6 |
4.5 |
|
17 |
|
|
| Deon Germishuys |
6.77% |
15 |
23 |
2.50% |
26 |
-2.5 |
Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4 |
| Estiaan Conradie |
0.06% |
1667 |
91 |
|
36 |
|
|
| Gerhard Pepler |
0.04% |
2500 |
161 |
|
37 |
|
|
| Graham Van Der Merwe |
0.53% |
189 |
61 |
|
5 |
|
|
| Haydn Porteous |
0.91% |
110 |
36 |
|
23 |
|
|
| Hennie Otto |
0.09% |
1111 |
111 |
|
30 |
|
|
| Herman Loubser |
0.52% |
192 |
41 |
|
26 |
|
|
| J.C. Ritchie |
14.97% |
6.7 |
9 |
4.30% |
12 |
-4.3 |
Bet365: 7/1, 5pl, 1/4 |
| Jaco Prinsloo |
7.74% |
13 |
16 |
1.60% |
2 |
2.2 |
Spreadex: 15/1, 4pl, 1/4 |
| Jason Roets |
0.07% |
1429 |
201 |
|
7 |
|
|
| Keenan Davidse |
0.58% |
172 |
71 |
|
20 |
|
|
| Kyle Barker |
0.75% |
133 |
41 |
|
38 |
|
|
| Kyle De Beer |
0.05% |
2000 |
126 |
|
26 |
|
|
| Louis Albertse |
4.06% |
25 |
16 |
|
33 |
|
|
| Luis Carrera |
0.32% |
313 |
101 |
|
11 |
|
|
| Luke Brown |
0.88% |
114 |
26 |
|
4 |
|
|
| Luke Jerling |
0.01% |
10000 |
201 |
|
39 |
|
|
| Lyle Rowe |
0.24% |
417 |
176 |
|
5 |
|
|
| M.J. Viljoen |
0.79% |
127 |
67 |
|
12 |
|
|
| Malcolm Mitchell |
0.03% |
3333 |
151 |
|
25 |
|
|
| Martin Vorster |
1.78% |
56 |
31 |
|
1 |
|
|
| Nikhil Rama |
0.31% |
323 |
81 |
|
26 |
|
|
| Pierre Viallaneix |
0.17% |
588 |
81 |
|
12 |
|
|
| Pieter Moolman |
7.83% |
13 |
17 |
2.10% |
30 |
-2.1 |
Bet365: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4 |
| Ryan Van Velzen |
2.18% |
46 |
26 |
|
7 |
|
|
| Samuel Simpson |
0.45% |
222 |
81 |
|
30 |
|
|
| Stuart Krog |
0.16% |
625 |
201 |
|
33 |
|
|
| Trevor Fisher, Jr. |
0.03% |
3333 |
226 |
|
20 |
|
|
| Tyran Snyders |
0.20% |
500 |
67 |
|
17 |
|
|
| Warwick Purchase |
0.00% |
10000 |
226 |
|
35 |
|
|
| Zander Lombard |
9.02% |
11 |
13 |
1.40% |
12 |
-1.4 |
Bet365: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4 |
| Player |
Win % |
TT Odds |
Best Odds |
Kelly |
Result |
P/L |
E/W Play |
| WIN: J.C. Ritchie |
14.97% |
6.7 |
9 |
4.30% |
12 |
-2 |
Bet365: 7/1, 5pl, 1/4 |
| WIN: Deon Germishuys |
6.77% |
15 |
23 |
2.50% |
26 |
-2 |
Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4 |
| WIN: Pieter Moolman |
7.83% |
13 |
17 |
2.10% |
30 |
-2 |
Bet365: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4 |
| FRL: |
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The data in the above table is as follows:
- Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
- TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
- TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
- Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
- Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
- Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
- P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
- E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes
The
Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.
The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution.
This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.
To determine the number of replications
R, this is typically set at 10 /
e2, where
e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure).
With 100,000 replications,
e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.
This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.
While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.
TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives'
here.
Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available
here.
