Simulation Results: South African Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.72% 139 151 0.10% 37 -0.1 Paddy Power: 150/1, 7pl, 1/5
Adrian Otaegui 1.41% 71 81 0.20% 71 -0.2 BetVictor: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adrien Saddier 1.83% 55 41 150
Albert Venter 0.00% 10000 5001 147
Alejandro Del Rey 0.42% 238 67 25
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.56% 179 251 0.20% 81 -0.2 Skybet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Andrea Pavan 1.52% 66 67 7
Andy Sullivan 1.98% 51 61 0.30% 37 -0.3 Boyle Sports: 45/1, 10pl, 1/5
Angel Ayora 1.61% 62 34 81
Astin Arthur 0.00% 10000 1001 108
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.35% 286 251 90
Bjorn Akesson 0.07% 1429 1001 120
Branden Grace 1.41% 71 36 4
Brandon Meads 0.03% 3333 120
Brandon Stone 1.13% 88 51 16
Brandon Wu 1.11% 90 81 98
Bryan Newman 0.00% 10000 751 113
C.J. Du Plessis 0.05% 2000 1501 132
Callum Tarren 0.91% 110 126 0.10% 65 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Calum Hill 0.77% 130 76 81
Casey Jarvis 1.17% 85 46 71
Charl Barnard 0.00% 10000 751 132
Charl Schwartzel 2.04% 49 31 46
Chris Paisley 0.05% 2000 1001 68
Christiaan Maas 0.18% 556 126 4
Combrinck Smit 0.01% 10000 4001 125
Connor Syme 1.82% 55 51 71
Dale Whitnell 0.63% 159 251 0.20% 7 -0.2 QuinnBet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dan Bradbury 0.99% 101 81 125
Daniel Van Tonder 2.86% 35 36 0.10% 71 -0.1 Betfair: 35/1, 7pl, 1/5
Darren Fichardt 0.71% 141 301 0.40% 4 11.8 Skybet: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
David Ravetto 0.99% 101 81 46
Dean Burmester 3.37% 30 10 37
Deon Germishuys 0.92% 109 71 108
Dylan Frittelli 0.53% 189 101 63
Dylan Mostert 0.03% 3333 3001 150
Dylan Naidoo 0.37% 270 251 1
Ethan Smith 0.03% 3333 2501 136
Francesco Laporta 1.73% 58 41 81
Franklin Manchest 0.00% 10000 3001 136
Freddy Schott 0.93% 108 101 67
Fredrik From 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 11 -0.1 Paddy Power: 1000/1, 7pl, 1/5
Gavin Green 1.10% 91 111 0.20% 25 -0.2 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
George Coetzee 0.15% 667 351 46
Gerhard Pepler 0.13% 769 501 145
Gregorio De Leo 0.51% 196 101 81
Haotong Li 1.40% 71 41 16
Heinrich Bruiners 0.13% 769 751 98
Hennie Otto 0.04% 2500 2001 98
Herman Loubser 0.08% 1250 1501 150
Ivan Cantero 1.41% 71 61 25
J.C. Ritchie 2.11% 47 67 0.60% 33 -0.6 Betfred: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
J.J. Senekal 0.16% 625 751 71
Jack Hawksby 0.07% 1429 1501 125
Jaco Ahlers 0.33% 303 276 16
Jaco Van Zyl 0.15% 667 601 98
Jacques Blaauw 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 16 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 150/1, 10pl, 1/5
Jacques De Villiers 0.02% 5000 2501 81
Jacques Kruyswijk 1.97% 51 41 37
Jamie Donaldson 0.16% 625 501 33
Jayden Schaper 2.27% 44 29 16
Jean Hugo 0.63% 159 351 0.30% 63 -0.3 Skybet: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jean-Paul Strydom 0.17% 588 501 150
Jens Dantorp 0.80% 125 126 90
Jeong Weon Ko 0.58% 172 151 16
Joel Girrbach 0.53% 189 201 46
Johan Theron 0.00% 10000 140
Johannes Veerman 1.28% 78 34 98
John Parry 2.36% 42 29 25
Jonathan Broomhead 0.65% 154 201 0.20% 71 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 150/1, 10pl, 1/5
Joost Luiten 2.37% 42 51 0.40% 11 -0.4 Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Burnand 0.04% 2500 751 140
Jordan Duminy 0.00% 10000 5001 136
Jordan Gumberg 0.33% 303 351 37
Jordan Smith 2.52% 40 34
Jorge Campillo 2.24% 45 41 46
Joshua Berry 0.24% 417 251 143
Jovan Rebula 0.65% 154 126 90
Justin Harding 0.24% 417 451 54
Kayle Wykes 0.00% 10000 98
Kazuma Kobori 0.71% 141 101 25
Keagan Thomas 0.03% 3333 2501 125
Keelan Van Wyk 0.01% 10000 2501 68
Keenan Davidse 0.51% 196 251 0.10% 113 -0.1 Paddy Power: 250/1, 7pl, 1/5
Keith Horne 0.06% 1667 2501 33
Kieran Vincent 0.49% 204 126 25
Kristoffer Reitan 0.54% 185 81 120
Kyle Barker 0.24% 417 501 125
Kyle Mcclatchie 0.04% 2500 2001 98
Laurie Canter 3.00% 33 17 1
Louis Albertse 0.25% 400 501 0.10% 90 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 350/1, 10pl, 1/5
Louis De Jager 0.56% 179 226 0.10% 150 -0.1 Betfred: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Jerling 0.11% 909 1501 62
Lyle Rowe 0.15% 667 501 37
M.J. Viljoen 0.22% 455 501 58
Malcolm Mitchell 0.23% 435 501 71
Manuel Elvira 0.41% 244 176 46
Marcel Siem 0.81% 123 151 0.10% 46 -0.1 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Marco Penge 0.78% 128 101 3
Martin Couvra 0.87% 115 61 90
Martin Rohwer 0.09% 1111 601 108
Martin Vorster 0.62% 161 126 37
Matthew Baldwin 0.37% 270 501 0.20% 58 -0.2 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Spacey 0.01% 10000 5001 144
Matthias Schwab 0.53% 189 301 0.20% 90 -0.2 Paddy Power: 275/1, 7pl, 1/5
Maximilian Steinlechner 0.45% 222 151 65
Michael Hollick 0.23% 435 501 54
Mikael Lindberg 0.27% 370 401 142
Nathan Kimsey 0.61% 164 126 16
Neil Schietekat 0.19% 526 1001 0.10% 132 -0.1 BetVictor: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.41% 244 251 71
Nikhil Rama 0.30% 333 351 33
Oliver Bekker 0.06% 1667 501 113
Oliver Lindell 0.83% 120 81 71
Peter Karmis 0.01% 10000 3001 90
Pieter Moolman 0.38% 263 401 0.10% 120 -0.1 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Quintin Wilsnach 0.01% 10000 4001 150
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.33% 303 301 54
Rhys Enoch 0.03% 3333 2001 90
Rhys West 0.04% 2500 1501 16
Ricardo Gouveia 1.07% 93 81 81
Richard Mansell 0.70% 143 71 11
Richard Sterne 0.37% 270 401 0.10% 54 -0.1 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Richie Ramsay 1.36% 74 81 0.10% 25 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 60/1, 10pl, 1/5
Robin Williams 0.57% 175 151 71
Robson Chinhoi 0.01% 10000 3001 146
Romain Langasque 1.49% 67 51 58
Ross Fisher 0.57% 175 226 0.10% 113 -0.1 Paddy Power: 225/1, 7pl, 1/5
Ruan Korb 0.02% 5000 3001 81
Rupert Kaminski 0.13% 769 751 46
Ryan Van Velzen 0.68% 147 126 113
Ryggs Johnston 0.47% 213 151 108
Sam Bairstow 1.48% 68 46 11
Scott Jamieson 1.20% 83 71 9
Sean Crocker 0.63% 159 101 70
Sean Paxton 0.00% 10000 132
Sentanio Minnie 0.01% 10000 4001 125
Shaun Norris 1.92% 52 41 9
Shubhankar Sharma 0.59% 169 126 58
Simon Forsstrom 0.26% 385 501 0.10% 98 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stefan Wears-Taylor 0.03% 3333 2001 113
Stephen Ferreira 0.01% 10000 3001 120
Steven Le Roux 0.00% 10000 4001 149
Thanda Mavundla 0.00% 10000 4001 136
Thomas Aiken 1.06% 94 126 0.30% 25 -0.3 Paddy Power: 125/1, 7pl, 1/5
Todd Clements 0.43% 233 151 16
Tom Vaillant 0.73% 137 101 98
Toto Thimba 0.01% 10000 2501 125
Trevor Fisher, Jr. 0.08% 1250 751 150
Tristin Galant 0.00% 10000 7501 148
Troy Merritt 0.50% 200 251 0.10% 37 -0.1 Skybet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ugo Coussaud 1.36% 74 67 11
Ulrich Van Den Berg 0.08% 1250 2001 113
Wilco Nienaber 1.70% 59 41 108
Yurav Premlall 0.93% 108 126 0.10% 37 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 90/1, 10pl, 1/5
Zander Lombard 0.00% 10000 81 81

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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