Simulation Results: South African Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adrian Otaegui	0.44%	227	226		6
Alejandro Del Rey	0.93%	108	56		14
Alex Fitzpatrick	1.66%	60	51		14
Allen John	0.02%	5000	2001		105
Altin Van Der Merwe	0.08%	1250	1251		63
Andrea Pavan	1.28%	78	101	0.30%			Skybet: 70/1, 12pl, 1/5
Andy Sullivan	1.49%	67	67		29
Angel Ayora	3.98%	25	13		9
Angel Hidalgo	0.41%	244	201		133
Antoine Rozner	1.78%	56	46		24
Austin Bautista	0.22%	455	401		79
Ben Schmidt	0.62%	161	81		93
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.32%	313	176		57
Bernd Wiesberger	0.40%	250	101		14
Bjorn Akesson	0.11%	909	751		93
Branden Grace	3.08%	32	19		20
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.79%	127	111		142
Brandon Stone	1.28%	78	56		50
Bryce Easton	0.32%	313	276		79
Calum Hill	1.48%	68	56		20
Cameron Adam	0.41%	244	226		122
Casey Jarvis	2.32%	43	26		1
Charl Barnard	0.00%	10000	1501		54
Charl Schwartzel	1.64%	61	41		113
Connor Syme	0.49%	204	151		79
Dan Bradbury	1.49%	67	56		79
Daniel Cronje	0.11%	909	601		105
Daniel Rodrigues	0.29%	345	151		43
Daniel Van Tonder	0.39%	256	126		6
Darius Van Driel	0.64%	156	201	0.10%	50	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Darren Fichardt	0.26%	385	351		43
David Ravetto	0.58%	172	151		43
Davis Bryant	0.39%	256	111		79
Dean Burmester	1.53%	65	21		20
Deon Germishuys	0.73%	137	141		93
Dian Kruger	0.01%	10000	4001		63
Dylan Frittelli	0.79%	127	126		54
Dylan Mostert	0.01%	10000	5001		93
Dylan Naidoo	0.09%	1111	501		93
Eddie Pepperell	0.51%	196	226	0.10%	5	2.7625	Betfred: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ernie Els	0.37%	270	276		122
Ewen Ferguson	1.39%	72	61		9
Francesco Laporta	1.86%	54	41		2
Franklin Manchest	0.00%	10000	3001		142
Freddy Schott	0.43%	233	151		14
Frederic Lacroix	1.33%	75	56		2
George Coetzee	0.04%	2500	501
Gregorio De Leo	0.55%	182	81		93
Haydn Porteous	0.10%	1000	601		6
Heinrich Bruiners	0.03%	3333	2501		142
Hennie Du Plessis	3.82%	26	23		2
Hennie Otto	0.12%	833	501		43
Herman Loubser	0.11%	909	751		29
Ivan Cantero	0.34%	294	251		93
J.C. Ritchie	0.96%	104	56		57
J.J. Senekal	0.12%	833	501		122
Jack Buchanan	0.07%	1429	601		53
Jaco Ahlers	0.43%	233	251		133
Jacob Skov Olesen	2.12%	47	46		63
Jacques Blaauw	0.05%	2000	1501		122
Jacques Kruyswijk	1.49%	67	71	0.10%	93	-0.1	Skybet: 45/1, 12pl, 1/5
Jamie Rutherford	0.18%	556	501		105
Jason Scrivener	0.86%	116	101		24
Jayden Schaper	4.19%	24	13		29
Jean Hugo	0.13%	769	601		113
Jeff Winther	0.47%	213	251	0.10%	70	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jens Dantorp	0.38%	263	351	0.10%	63	-0.1	Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeong Weon Ko	0.13%	769	501		105
Joakim Lagergren	0.97%	103	81		113
Joe Dean	0.28%	357	201		14
Joel Girrbach	0.55%	182	126		133
Johannes Veerman	0.66%	152	101		29
Jonathan Broomhead	0.24%	417	226		133
Joost Luiten	1.96%	51	61	0.30%	105	-0.3	Skybet: 40/1, 12pl, 1/5
Jordan Duminy	0.00%	10000	4001		152
Jordan Gumberg	0.33%	303	251		122
Jorge Campillo	1.52%	66	56		79
Jovan Rebula	0.10%	1000	501		122
Judd Sundelson	0.00%	10000	2001		133
Julien Guerrier	1.65%	61	46		29
Justin Harding	0.04%	2500	501		63
Justin Walters	0.30%	333	251		63
Karabo Mokoena	0.02%	5000	2501		75
Keelan Van Wyk	0.01%	10000	3001		142
Keenan Davidse	0.17%	588	401		71
Kieran Vincent	0.99%	101	91		79
Kieron Van Wyk	0.49%	204	201		14
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.56%	179	151		57
Kota Kaneko	0.69%	145	126		57
Logan Leisher	0.00%	10000	4001		77
Louis Albertse	0.32%	313	351		29
Luis Carrera	0.08%	1250	1251		79
Luke Brown	0.28%	357	176		113
Luke Jerling	0.04%	2500	2001		122
Lyle Rowe	0.09%	1111	1251		79
M.J. Daffue	0.31%	323	251		122
M.J. Viljoen	0.20%	500	401		77
Malcolm Mitchell	0.03%	3333	2501		54
Manuel Elvira	1.00%	100	101		50
Marcel Schneider	0.70%	143	151		105
Marcel Siem	0.53%	189	176		133
Marcus Armitage	1.70%	59	56		29
Marcus Kinhult	0.49%	204	201		71
Martin Couvra	0.93%	108	67		29
Martin Vorster	0.24%	417	451		148
Matteo Manassero	0.54%	185	176		24
Matthew Jordan	0.75%	133	61		20
Matthew Rossouw	0.00%	10000			154
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.19%	526	276		79
Merrick Bremner	0.00%	10000	4001		148
Michael Hollick	0.31%	323	176		105
Nathan Kimsey	1.79%	56	41		9
Neil Schietekat	0.03%	3333	3001		155
Nick Bachem	0.03%	3333	1501		152
Nikhil Rama	0.17%	588	601		148
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.71%	141	91		29
Ockie Strydom	0.02%	5000	1001		73
Oliver Bekker	0.25%	400	91		133
Oliver Lindell	1.95%	51	36		29
Pablo Larrazabal	0.28%	357	401		122
Patrick Reed	4.34%	23	12		29
Pierre Viallaneix	0.06%	1667	1001		43
Pieter Moolman	0.78%	128	176	0.20%	113	-0.2	Betfred: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rafa Cabrera Bello	0.69%	145	151		9
Rhys Enoch	0.04%	2500	1251		113
Ricardo Gouveia	0.59%	169	126		79
Richard Sterne	0.79%	127	101		105
Rikuya Hoshino	0.41%	244	126		43
Robin Williams	0.22%	455	251		57
Robson Chinhoi	0.03%	3333	3001		113
Romain Langasque	0.90%	111	101		24
Ruan Korb	0.04%	2500	1501		79
Rupert Kaminski	0.01%	10000	3001		148
Ryan Van Velzen	0.39%	256	151		93
Ryggs Johnston	0.17%	588	351		75
Sam Bairstow	0.63%	159	91		43
Samuel Simpson	0.08%	1250	451		57
Scott Jamieson	0.58%	172	151		29
Sebastian Soderberg	1.36%	74	71		142
Shaun Norris	0.53%	189	101		50
Stephen Ferreira	0.01%	10000	3001		133
Thanda Mavundla	0.00%	10000	4001		93
Thriston Lawrence	2.06%	49	29		79
Todd Clements	0.84%	119	101		24
Toto Thimba	0.01%	10000	3001		113
Tristen Strydom	0.02%	5000	1501		122
Tristin Galant	0.00%	10000	4001		142
Tyran Snyders	0.06%	1667	1501		63
Ugo Coussaud	1.00%	100	71		73
Warwick Purchase	0.01%	10000	3001		93
Wenyi Ding	1.52%	66	46		29
Wilco Nienaber	0.30%	333	176		9
Will Enefer	0.29%	345	276		113
Xander Basson	0.01%	10000	2501		29
Yurav Premlall	0.16%	625	451		122
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.25%	400	226		133

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adrian Otaegui	0.54%	185	141		9
Alejandro Del Rey	0.80%	125	67		1
Alex Fitzpatrick	1.36%	74	67		17
Allen John	0.20%	500	401		42
Altin Van Der Merwe	0.21%	476	301		17
Andrea Pavan	1.22%	82	111	0.30%			Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andy Sullivan	1.27%	79	81		108
Angel Ayora	1.72%	58	29		9
Angel Hidalgo	0.61%	164	141		135
Antoine Rozner	1.15%	87	56		17
Austin Bautista	0.38%	263	151		108
Ben Schmidt	0.69%	145	81		71
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.50%	200	141		71
Bernd Wiesberger	0.67%	149	126		17
Bjorn Akesson	0.38%	263	301		89
Branden Grace	1.86%	54	41		28
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.78%	128	81		89
Brandon Stone	1.08%	93	81		28
Bryce Easton	0.48%	208	151		71
Calum Hill	1.28%	78	71		42
Cameron Adam	0.68%	147	176	0.10%	135	-0.1	Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Casey Jarvis	1.26%	79	41		9
Charl Barnard	0.02%	5000	351		71
Charl Schwartzel	1.34%	75	81	0.10%	147	-0.1	Spreadex: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Connor Syme	0.69%	145	151		89
Dan Bradbury	1.06%	94	67		28
Daniel Cronje	0.32%	313	351		42
Daniel Rodrigues	0.62%	161	126		89
Daniel Van Tonder	0.61%	164	111		89
Darius Van Driel	0.75%	133	141		71
Darren Fichardt	0.54%	185	251	0.10%	42	-0.1	Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Ravetto	0.60%	167	111		71
Davis Bryant	0.66%	152	126		126
Dean Burmester	1.28%	78	51		1
Deon Germishuys	0.73%	137	101		71
Dian Kruger	0.07%	1429	501		42
Dylan Frittelli	0.72%	139	101		9
Dylan Mostert	0.10%	1000	501		89
Dylan Naidoo	0.36%	278	226		108
Eddie Pepperell	0.56%	179	141		42
Ernie Els	0.63%	159	151		126
Ewen Ferguson	0.99%	101	61		17
Francesco Laporta	1.41%	71	76	0.10%	5	0.1	Spreadex: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Franklin Manchest	0.06%	1667	401		142
Freddy Schott	0.60%	167	101		28
Frederic Lacroix	1.19%	84	81		28
George Coetzee	0.22%	455	251
Gregorio De Leo	0.65%	154	81		42
Haydn Porteous	0.31%	323	191		9
Heinrich Bruiners	0.13%	769	351		135
Hennie Du Plessis	2.06%	49	46		42
Hennie Otto	0.41%	244	301	0.10%	42	-0.1	Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Herman Loubser	0.31%	323	201		5
Ivan Cantero	0.46%	217	141		71
J.C. Ritchie	1.01%	99	61		71
J.J. Senekal	0.37%	270	201		89
Jack Buchanan	0.24%	417	191		40
Jaco Ahlers	0.69%	145	176	0.10%	135	-0.1	Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.56%	64	71	0.20%	135	-0.2	Spreadex: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jacques Blaauw	0.29%	345	351		126
Jacques Kruyswijk	1.08%	93	71		89
Jamie Rutherford	0.48%	208	251	0.10%	147	-0.1	Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Scrivener	0.80%	125	101		28
Jayden Schaper	1.87%	53	29		17
Jean Hugo	0.33%	303	151		71
Jeff Winther	0.69%	145	151		17
Jens Dantorp	0.47%	213	141		89
Jeong Weon Ko	0.39%	256	251		142
Joakim Lagergren	1.03%	97	91		108
Joe Dean	0.55%	182	141		1
Joel Girrbach	0.78%	128	126		89
Johannes Veerman	0.65%	154	81		5
Jonathan Broomhead	0.55%	182	151		108
Joost Luiten	1.19%	84	67		71
Jordan Duminy	0.02%	5000	501		142
Jordan Gumberg	0.55%	182	176		147
Jorge Campillo	1.31%	76	81	0.10%	89	-0.1	Spreadex: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jovan Rebula	0.27%	370	171		89
Judd Sundelson	0.01%	10000	401		71
Julien Guerrier	1.32%	76	76		28
Justin Harding	0.18%	556	151		42
Justin Walters	0.45%	222	151		71
Karabo Mokoena	0.12%	833	351		42
Keelan Van Wyk	0.14%	714	501		108
Keenan Davidse	0.37%	270	151		89
Kieran Vincent	0.85%	118	81		89
Kieron Van Wyk	0.56%	179	141		42
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.67%	149	101		9
Kota Kaneko	0.88%	114	91		71
Logan Leisher	0.01%	10000	601		89
Louis Albertse	0.48%	208	141		28
Luis Carrera	0.26%	385	401		71
Luke Brown	0.47%	213	141		89
Luke Jerling	0.26%	385	351		108
Lyle Rowe	0.27%	370	301		42
M.J. Daffue	0.62%	161	151		108
M.J. Viljoen	0.49%	204	126		28
Malcolm Mitchell	0.21%	476	401		42
Manuel Elvira	1.01%	99	111	0.10%	126	-0.1	Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marcel Schneider	0.90%	111	141	0.20%	154	-0.2	Spreadex: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marcel Siem	0.64%	156	141		108
Marcus Armitage	1.12%	89	61		42
Marcus Kinhult	0.75%	133	176	0.20%	108	-0.2	Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Martin Couvra	1.06%	94	81		108
Martin Vorster	0.40%	250	151		89
Matteo Manassero	0.60%	167	141		42
Matthew Jordan	0.79%	127	67		17
Matthew Rossouw	0.00%	10000	501		142
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.38%	263	151		42
Merrick Bremner	0.00%	10000	501		147
Michael Hollick	0.47%	213	141		28
Nathan Kimsey	1.39%	72	81	0.20%	5	0.2625	Spreadex: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Neil Schietekat	0.18%	556	401		155
Nick Bachem	0.18%	556	301		147
Nikhil Rama	0.46%	217	201		147
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.70%	143	71		42
Ockie Strydom	0.14%	714	251		42
Oliver Bekker	0.45%	222	81		108
Oliver Lindell	1.42%	70	61		1
Pablo Larrazabal	0.45%	222	151		108
Patrick Reed	2.32%	43	34		71
Pierre Viallaneix	0.27%	370	251		71
Pieter Moolman	0.89%	112	151	0.20%	126	-0.2	Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rafa Cabrera Bello	0.87%	115	126	0.10%	42	-0.1	Spreadex: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rhys Enoch	0.22%	455	351		142
Ricardo Gouveia	0.67%	149	101		108
Richard Sterne	0.81%	123	91		126
Rikuya Hoshino	0.69%	145	111		9
Robin Williams	0.49%	204	151		17
Robson Chinhoi	0.18%	556	401		108
Romain Langasque	0.99%	101	101		42
Ruan Korb	0.19%	526	301		71
Rupert Kaminski	0.16%	625	401		135
Ryan Van Velzen	0.51%	196	91		17
Ryggs Johnston	0.49%	204	176		126
Sam Bairstow	0.81%	123	111		28
Samuel Simpson	0.26%	385	151		42
Scott Jamieson	0.83%	120	126		89
Sebastian Soderberg	1.20%	83	71		135
Shaun Norris	0.75%	133	101		42
Stephen Ferreira	0.09%	1111	401		126
Thanda Mavundla	0.04%	2500	601		108
Thriston Lawrence	1.19%	84	51		17
Todd Clements	1.00%	100	111	0.10%	42	-0.1	Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Toto Thimba	0.08%	1250	301		42
Tristen Strydom	0.18%	556	351		42
Tristin Galant	0.00%	10000	751		108
Tyran Snyders	0.21%	476	301		42
Ugo Coussaud	1.09%	92	101	0.10%	42	-0.1	Spreadex: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Warwick Purchase	0.07%	1429	401		28
Wenyi Ding	1.30%	77	71		28
Wilco Nienaber	0.61%	164	111		42
Will Enefer	0.63%	159	176	0.10%	147	-0.1	Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Xander Basson	0.16%	625	401		9
Yurav Premlall	0.49%	204	151		108
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.45%	222	141		89

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Joost Luiten	1.96%	51	61	0.30%	105	-2	Skybet: 40/1, 12pl, 1/5
WIN: Andrea Pavan	1.28%	78	101	0.30%			Skybet: 70/1, 12pl, 1/5
WIN: Pieter Moolman	0.78%	128	176	0.20%	113	-2	Betfred: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Andrea Pavan	1.22%	82	111	0.30%			Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jacob Skov Olesen	1.56%	64	71	0.20%	135	-1	Spreadex: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Nathan Kimsey	1.39%	72	81	0.20%	5	1.3125	Spreadex: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Marcel Schneider	0.90%	111	141	0.20%	108	-1	Spreadex: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Pieter Moolman	0.89%	112	151	0.20%	142	-1	Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Marcus Kinhult	0.75%	133	176	0.20%	42	-1	Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.