Simulation Results: The Serengeti Playoffs

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Allen John	0.10%	1000	201		2
Altin Van Der Merwe	0.16%	625	101		42
Anthony Michael	0.00%	10000	201		36
Austin Bautista	1.35%	74	91	0.30%	8	-0.3	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Benjamin Follett-Smith	1.25%	80	36		36
Benjamin Van Wyk	0.04%	2500	201		57
Brandon Stone	15.36%	6.5	9	4.80%	15	-4.8	Boyle Sports: 8/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bryce Easton	1.79%	56	46		9
Christiaan Burke	0.68%	147	29		46
Daniel Van Tonder	10.67%	9.4	5.5		1
Dylan Frittelli	7.69%	13	17	1.90%	19	-1.9	Bet365: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Estiaan Conradie	0.08%	1250	101		50
Gerhard Pepler	0.07%	1429	161		46
Graham Van Der Merwe	0.23%	435	101		11
Haydn Porteous	1.41%	71	31		36
Hennie Otto	0.20%	500	101		59
Herman Loubser	0.42%	238	46		31
J.C. Ritchie	10.20%	9.8	15	3.80%	4	4.75	Bet365: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
J.J. Senekal	0.13%	769	111		41
Jaco Ahlers	2.94%	34	41	0.50%	15	-0.5	Spreadex: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jaco Prinsloo	5.17%	19	29	1.80%	5	4.14	Boyle Sports: 28/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jacques Blaauw	0.10%	1000	301		49
Jacques De Villiers	0.00%	10000	301		42
James Mack	0.03%	3333	201		50
Jason Roets	0.11%	909	201		56
Jean Hugo	0.53%	189	67		36
Joe Long	0.01%	10000	226		46
Jonathan Broomhead	2.08%	48	34
Jordan Burnand	0.03%	3333	751		24
Justin Walters	0.75%	133
Keenan Davidse	0.59%	169	101		31
Kieron Van Wyk	3.75%	27	26		13
Kyle Barker	0.51%	196	81		15
Kyle De Beer	0.07%	1429	201		24
Louis Albertse	5.75%	17	17		29
Luis Carrera	0.33%	303	126		50
Luke Brown	1.67%	60	23		54
Lyle Rowe	0.28%	357	176		50
M.J. Daffue	1.23%	81	67		15
M.J. Viljoen	0.87%	115	86		19
Malcolm Mitchell	0.02%	5000	201		19
Martin Vorster	0.87%	115	81		5
Michael Hollick	2.75%	36	36		42
Nikhil Rama	0.27%	370	126		24
Ockie Strydom	0.07%	1429	81		7
Pierre Viallaneix	0.08%	1250	126		13
Pieter Moolman	8.12%	12	19	3.00%	31	-3	Boyle Sports: 18/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rowan Lester	0.02%	5000			42
Ruan Korb	0.03%	3333	176		11
Rupert Kaminski	0.01%	10000	201		36
Ryan Van Velzen	3.44%	29	34	0.50%	55	-0.5	Boyle Sports: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
Samuel Simpson	0.19%	526	141		24
Stuart Krog	0.08%	1250	251		31
Trevor Fisher, Jr.	0.07%	1429	276		58
Tyran Snyders	0.04%	2500	201		9
Tyrone Ryan	0.01%	10000	201		19
Warwick Purchase	0.00%	10000	301		29
Wilco Nienaber	4.49%	22	14		2
Xander Basson	0.02%	5000	401		60
Yurav Premlall	0.83%	120	86		31

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Allen John	0.90%	111	71		7
Altin Van Der Merwe	1.01%	99	56		49
Anthony Michael	0.17%	588	71		26
Austin Bautista	2.21%	45	56	0.40%	12	-0.4	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Benjamin Follett-Smith	2.23%	45	31		12
Benjamin Van Wyk	0.62%	161	71		55
Brandon Stone	6.24%	16	14		26
Bryce Easton	2.48%	40	36		26
Christiaan Burke	1.71%	58	23		44
Daniel Van Tonder	5.14%	19	10		18
Dylan Frittelli	4.48%	22	23	0.10%	49	-0.1	Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Estiaan Conradie	0.72%	139	56		49
Gerhard Pepler	0.74%	135	56		44
Graham Van Der Merwe	1.13%	88	56		12
Haydn Porteous	2.19%	46	23		12
Hennie Otto	1.18%	85	56		57
Herman Loubser	1.48%	68	31		18
J.C. Ritchie	5.16%	19	21	0.40%	1	3	Bet365: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
J.J. Senekal	0.94%	106	61		18
Jaco Ahlers	2.95%	34	34		26
Jaco Prinsloo	3.70%	27	26		3
Jacques Blaauw	0.85%	118	91		49
Jacques De Villiers	0.27%	370	91		39
James Mack	0.60%	167	71		57
Jason Roets	0.80%	125	71		39
Jean Hugo	1.43%	70	46		39
Joe Long	0.38%	263	91		39
Jordan Burnand	0.52%	192	161		12
Keenan Davidse	1.71%	58	56		7
Kieron Van Wyk	3.25%	31	26		18
Kyle Barker	1.53%	65	56		7
Kyle De Beer	0.79%	127	71		18
Kyle McClatchie	0.30%	333	76		36
Louis Albertse	4.05%	25	21		39
Luis Carrera	1.29%	78	56		26
Luke Brown	2.39%	42	23		59
Lyle Rowe	1.22%	82	86	0.10%	44	-0.1	Spreadex: 85/1, 5pl, 1/5
M.J. Daffue	2.13%	47	41		12
M.J. Viljoen	1.94%	52	41		18
Malcolm Mitchell	0.45%	222	71		18
Martin Vorster	1.72%	58	51		1
Michael Hollick	2.95%	34	31		36
Nikhil Rama	1.20%	83	56		26
Ockie Strydom	0.74%	135	36		3
Pierre Viallaneix	0.79%	127	56		26
Pieter Moolman	4.62%	22	21		26
Rowan Lester	0.47%	213	91		44
Ruan Korb	0.48%	208	71		36
Rupert Kaminski	0.31%	323	86		55
Ryan Van Velzen	3.23%	31	26		49
Samuel Simpson	1.03%	97	56		7
Stals Swart	0.59%	169	56		3
Stuart Krog	0.78%	128	101		49
Trevor Fisher, Jr.	0.76%	132	76		26
Tyran Snyders	0.62%	161	81		7
Tyrone Ryan	0.29%	345	91		18
Warwick Purchase	0.15%	667	101		26
Wilco Nienaber	3.58%	28	19		3
Xander Basson	0.56%	179	101		60
Yurav Premlall	1.84%	54	56	0.10%	44	-0.1	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Brandon Stone	15.36%	6.5	9	4.80%	15	-2	Boyle Sports: 8/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: J.C. Ritchie	10.20%	9.8	15	3.80%	4	2.5	Bet365: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Pieter Moolman	8.12%	12	19	3.00%	31	-2	Boyle Sports: 18/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: J.C. Ritchie	5.16%	19	21	0.40%	1	7.5	Bet365: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Austin Bautista	2.21%	45	56	0.40%	12	-1	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Dylan Frittelli	4.48%	22	23	0.10%	49	-1	Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Yurav Premlall	1.84%	54	56	0.10%	44	-1	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Lyle Rowe	1.22%	82	86	0.10%	44	-1	Spreadex: 85/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.