Simulation Results: SDC Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adri Arnaus 2.22% 45 51 0.30% 30 -0.3 William Hill: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Albert Boneta 0.34% 294 81 26
Albert Venter 0.04% 2500 1501 141
Alexander Settemsdal 0.04% 2500 301 74
Altin Van Der Merwe 0.82% 122 126 2
Aron Zemmer 0.29% 345 151 122
Aymeric Laussot 0.04% 2500 601 26
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 0.18% 556 126 5
Bastien Amat 0.39% 256 51 128
Ben Sigel 0.01% 10000 501 105
Ben Van Wyk 0.57% 175 101 30
Benjamin Follett-Smith 1.13% 88 46 12
Borja Virto 0.52% 192 101 41
Bradley Bawden 0.48% 208 201 152
Brandon Pieters 0.06% 1667 1501 122
Bryce Easton 1.16% 86 101 0.20% 144 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
C.J. Du Plessis 0.35% 286 201 82
Callan Barrow 0.04% 2500 251 105
Callum Mowat 0.15% 667 751 20
Calum Fyfe 0.18% 556 151 30
Chase Hanna 0.67% 149 151 128
Chris Paisley 0.30% 333 301 89
Christiaan Burke 0.02% 5000 176 117
Christofer Blomstrand 0.19% 526 301 148
Christofer Rahm 0.14% 714 301 152
Clement Sordet 4.41% 23 21 16
Combrinck Smit 0.05% 2000 1001 89
Daan Huizing 0.72% 139 101 144
Dan Erickson 0.20% 500 151 105
Danie Van Niekerk 0.24% 417 501 54
Daniel Van Tonder 5.02% 20 19 1
Daniel Young 0.67% 149 81 50
David Law 2.82% 35 29 5
Davis Bryant 0.82% 122 101 89
Dayne Moore 0.06% 1667 2501 117
Dylan Mostert 0.54% 185 201 141
Ethan Smith 0.09% 1111 501 82
Euan Walker 0.65% 154 51 89
Felix Mory 0.96% 104 46 67
Filippo Celli 1.02% 98 29 50
Frank Kennedy 0.36% 278 126 144
Franklin Manchest 0.06% 1667 1501 105
Fredrik From 0.90% 111 201 0.40% 74 -0.4 Spreadex: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gabriel Morgan 0.00% 10000 251 71
George Bloor 0.65% 154 151 30
Gerhard Pepler 0.50% 200 126 60
Graham Van Der Merwe 0.54% 185 251 0.10% 54 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gregor Graham 0.41% 244 126 71
Hayden Hopewell 0.84% 119 101 152
Heinrich Bruiners 0.88% 114 91 26
Hennie O'Kennedy 0.52% 192 201 74
Hennie Otto 0.19% 526 601 128
Henric Sturehed 0.15% 667 301 89
Herman Loubser 0.24% 417 276 30
Ilirian Zalli 0.00% 10000 301 89
J.C. Ritchie 3.70% 27 21 9
Jack Floydd 0.04% 2500 601 30
Jack Hawksby 0.32% 313 351 89
Jaco Prinsloo 1.39% 72 91 0.30% 122 -0.3 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jaco Van Zyl 0.39% 256 251 16
Jacques Blaauw 1.55% 65 67 0.10% 16 -0.1 Spreadex: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jacques De Villiers 0.23% 435 251 54
James Mack 0.23% 435 751 0.10% 105 -0.1 Skybet: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jamie Rutherford 2.03% 49 46 128
Jason Roets 0.14% 714 601 5
Jean Bekirian 0.17% 588 201 89
Jean Hugo 1.50% 67 81 0.30% 20 -0.3 Spreadex: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jens Fahrbring 1.17% 85 126 0.40% 16 -0.4 Spreadex: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeremy Freiburghaus 0.30% 333 151 82
Jiri Zuska 0.14% 714 151 152
Joe Long 0.26% 385 501 0.10% 74 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
John Gough 0.20% 500 176 150
Jonathan Broomhead 2.74% 36 26 74
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 0.33% 303 126 141
Jordan Duminy 0.00% 10000 2001 46
Joshua Berry 0.30% 333 176 30
Jovan Rebula 0.82% 122 67 20
Justin Walters 1.58% 63 51 64
Keagan Thomas 0.10% 1000 1001 73
Keegan Mclachlan 0.08% 1250 751 105
Keelan Van Wyk 0.06% 1667 1001 156
Keenan Davidse 2.05% 49 46 64
Keith Horne 0.43% 233 501 0.20% 105 -0.2 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kyle Barker 0.53% 189 176 26
Kyle De Beer 0.23% 435 251 54
Lars Van Meijel 1.27% 79 51 54
Lee Slattery 0.47% 213 176 46
Liam Nolan 0.09% 1111 251 3
Lorenzo Scalise 1.11% 90 91 89
Louis Albertse 1.53% 65 67 122
Lucas Vacarisas 0.25% 400 201 9
Luke Brown 1.03% 97 61 122
Luke Jerling 0.41% 244 251 139
Lyle Pedro 0.00% 10000 4001 150
Lyle Rowe 0.87% 115 126 0.10% 128 -0.1 Skybet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
M.J. Viljoen 0.76% 132 126 89
Makhetha Mazibuko 0.02% 5000 2501 82
Malcolm Mitchell 0.64% 156 101 9
Marc Hammer 0.27% 370 201 41
Martin Rohwer 0.64% 156 111 89
Martin Vorster 1.04% 96 71 20
Matt Oshrine 0.17% 588 251 128
Matt Sharpstene 0.12% 833 401 74
Matthew Spacey 0.10% 1000 601 128
Matthis Besard 0.74% 135 81 30
Max Kennedy 0.46% 217 126 105
Maxence Giboudot 0.17% 588 401 64
Maximilian Steinlechner 2.27% 44 26 12
Michael Hollick 0.72% 139 251 0.30% 30 -0.3 Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nathan Legendre 0.06% 1667 301 74
Neil Schietekat 0.85% 118 126 0.10% 69 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nick Carlson 0.21% 476 601 12
Nikhil Rama 1.10% 91 56 12
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 0.41% 244 126 89
Oliver Bekker 1.63% 61 67 0.10% 82 -0.1 Spreadex: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Palmer Jackson 0.05% 2000 101 105
Per Langfors 0.18% 556 151 20
Peter Karmis 0.16% 625 501 82
Pierre Pellegrin 0.04% 2500 1501 148
Pieter Moolman 3.30% 30 29 117
Quim Vidal 0.39% 256 151 41
Quintin Wilsnach 0.20% 500 601 105
Renato Paratore 1.12% 89 61 128
Rhys Enoch 0.31% 323 251 50
Rhys West 0.14% 714 751 20
Ricky Hendler 0.24% 417 201 46
Robin Petersson 0.11% 909 301 41
Robin Sciot-Siegrist 1.18% 85 81 117
Robson Chinhoi 0.10% 1000 751 60
Rourke Van Der Spuy 0.30% 333 301 89
Ruan De Smidt 0.07% 1429 1001 144
Ruan Korb 0.15% 667 451 89
Rupert Kaminski 1.04% 96 101 0.10% 46 -0.1 Skybet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryan Lumsden 0.30% 333 201 74
Sam Jones 0.63% 159 81 30
Saptak Talwar 0.15% 667 501
Sebastian Garcia 0.83% 120 56 30
Sebastien Gros 0.26% 385 201 4
Sentanio Minnie 0.02% 5000 2501 89
Soren Broholt Lind 0.26% 385 276 128
Stals Swart 0.19% 526 501 128
Stefan Wears-Taylor 0.32% 313 251 128
Stuart Krog 0.23% 435 601 0.10% 60 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thabiso Ngcobo 0.00% 10000 4001 69
Tiger Christensen 0.45% 222 101 117
Tom Lewis 0.86% 116 101 122
Tomas Gouveia 0.37% 270 81 54
Trevor Fisher, Jr. 0.50% 200 201 50
Tristin Galant 0.01% 10000 2501 139
Tyran Snyders 0.69% 145 101 67
Victor Pastor 0.33% 303 301 82
Vince Van Veen 0.13% 769 251 41
Werner Deyzel 0.17% 588 401 105
Wilco Nienaber 3.42% 29 15 5
Wynand Dingle 0.72% 139 101 89
Yurav Premlall 2.93% 34 21 60

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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