Simulation Results: SDC Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Wallin	0.18%	556	81		39
Adri Arnaus	1.61%	62	51		96
Albert Boneta	1.11%	90	81		86
Alex Goff	0.44%	227	81		39
Alexander Knappe	0.04%	2500	251		72
Alfie Plant	0.17%	588	151		105
Altin Van Der Merwe	0.38%	263	101		65
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.00%	10000	501		136
Andres Gallegos	0.00%	10000	501		105
Anton Albers	0.41%	244	81		118
Asier Aguirre Izcue	0.00%	10000	501		136
Austin Bautista	2.43%	41	41		49
Ayden Knight	0.00%	10000	2501		118
Baard Skogen	0.61%	164	56		16
Benjamin Rusch	0.11%	909	251		86
Bjorn Akesson	0.11%	909	151		67
Bryce Easton	3.34%	30	46	1.20%	144	-1.2	Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
C.J. Du Plessis	0.04%	2500	351		118
Callan Barrow	0.05%	2000	176		118
Callum Farr	0.23%	435	91		5
Callum Tarren	2.50%	40	71	1.10%	105	-1.1	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Calum Fyfe	0.31%	323	91		72
Canon Claycomb	0.00%	10000	401		105
Charles Huntzinger	0.08%	1250	201		71
Christiaan Burke	0.70%	143	46		129
Christofer Blomstrand	0.09%	1111	141		86
Christofer Rahm	0.00%	10000	501		144
Clement Sordet	4.10%	24	36	1.40%	27	-1.4	Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/5
Collin Adams	0.00%	10000	601		96
Conor Purcell	1.13%	88	71		72
Daan Huizing	0.17%	588	151		144
Dan Erickson	0.34%	294	126		16
Deon Germishuys	6.26%	16	23	2.00%	2	4.5	Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Mostert	0.01%	10000	751		72
Estiaan Conradie	0.31%	323	151		96
Franklin Manchest	0.00%	10000	1251		86
Gary Hurley	0.01%	10000	301		65
George Coetzee	0.23%	435	101		129
Gerhard Pepler	0.14%	714	201		56
Graham Van Der Merwe	0.19%	526	201		16
Hamish Brown	0.85%	118	51		72
Haraldur Magnus	0.06%	1667	351		96
Haydn Porteous	2.37%	42	56	0.60%	49	-0.6	Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Heinrich Bruiners	0.13%	769	201		105
Hennie O'Kennedy	0.02%	5000	351		72
Hennie Otto	0.01%	10000	401		56
Herman Loubser	2.99%	33	41	0.60%	49	-0.6	Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
Hurly Long	0.17%	588	91		22
J.J. Senekal	0.25%	400	126		86
Jack Hawksby	0.06%	1667	1501		27
Jaco Ahlers	4.53%	22	31	1.30%	16	-1.3	Spreadex: 30/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jaco Prinsloo	5.40%	19	41	3.00%	5	1.5	Skybet: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jacques Blaauw	0.16%	625	176		72
Jacques De Villiers	0.01%	10000	351		72
James Mack	0.11%	909	401		72
Jannik De Bruyn	0.41%	244	81		5
Jason Roets	0.17%	588	176		11
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.01%	10000	251		144
Jean Hugo	0.22%	455	151		3
Jean-Paul Strydom	0.02%	5000	351		105
Joe Long	0.48%	208	176		136
Joel Moscatel	0.10%	1000	151		39
John Gough	0.02%	5000	176		150
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	0.06%	1667	151		59
Jordan Burnand	0.16%	625	251		39
Josh Hilleard	0.09%	1111	151		86
Jovan Rebula	1.79%	56	51		96
Julian Perico	0.29%	345	67		118
Julien Brun	1.10%	91	91		39
Julien Quesne	0.11%	909	251		11
Julien Sale	0.43%	233	91		33
Justin Walters	1.73%	58	67	0.20%	22	-0.2	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/5
Karabo Mokoena	0.02%	5000	501		118
Kayle Wykes	0.00%	10000	2501		136
Keagan Thomas	0.12%	833	251		153
Keelan Van Wyk	0.00%	10000	1251		129
Keenan Davidse	0.36%	278	141		105
Kieran Vincent	6.17%	16	21	1.50%	86	-1.5	Skybet: 20/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kieron Van Wyk	4.66%	21	41	2.30%	27	-2.3	Spreadex: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kristian Hjort Bressum	0.00%	10000	201		153
Kyle Barker	0.37%	270	151		16
Kyle De Beer	0.21%	476	176		59
Lars Van Meijel	0.88%	114	67		118
Liam Nolan	0.04%	2500	251		39
Lorenzo Scalise	0.55%	182	101		27
Louis Albertse	1.02%	98	101		105
Lucas Vacarisas	0.10%	1000	251		33
Luis Carrera	0.96%	104	56		69
Lukas Nemecz	0.92%	109	51		72
Luke Brown	0.42%	238	151		5
Luke Jerling	0.22%	455	176		136
Lyle Rowe	0.51%	196	151		136
M.J. Daffue	0.58%	172	71		72
M.J. Viljoen	1.39%	72	81	0.20%	1	9.6	BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Makhetha Mazibuko	0.00%	10000	2501		72
Malcolm Mitchell	0.03%	3333	301		96
Marc Warren	0.04%	2500	251		22
Martin Rohwer	0.99%	101	111	0.10%	63	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
Martin Vorster	1.07%	93	111	0.20%	11	-0.2	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
Matthew Southgate	0.61%	164	71		96
Matthias Schwab	0.20%	500			118
Matthis Besard	0.84%	119	51		31
Max Kennedy	0.18%	556	151		33
Maxence Giboudot	0.11%	909	251		3
Musiwalo Nethunzwi	0.00%	10000	2501		149
Neil Schietekat	0.07%	1429	251		129
Nick Bachem	0.23%	435	301		129
Nick Carlson	0.49%	204	101		39
Nikhil Rama	0.60%	167	101		33
Pablo Ereno Perez	0.84%	119	41		22
Palmer Jackson	0.06%	1667	111		63
Pedro Figueiredo	0.79%	127	81		150
Per Langfors	1.44%	69	56		156
Pieter Moolman	3.81%	26	29	0.40%	5	-0.13333333333333	Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rhys Enoch	0.32%	313	101		31
Rhys West	0.01%	10000	401		118
Ricky Hendler	0.02%	5000	401		96
Robert Foley	0.00%	10000	1501		59
Robin Petersson	0.06%	1667	176		96
Robin Sciot-Siegrist	0.66%	152	71		56
Robin Williams	2.39%	42	41		11
Robson Chinhoi	0.01%	10000	751		72
Ronan Kleu	0.12%	833	201		22
Ronan Mullarney	0.00%	10000	501		105
Rory Franssen	0.00%	10000	351		144
Ruan Korb	0.04%	2500	351		49
Rupert Kaminski	0.05%	2000	401		59
Ryan Van Der Klis	0.01%	10000	1501		49
Ryan Van Velzen	1.54%	65	41		5
Sam Hutsby	0.07%	1429	301		49
Sam Jones	0.30%	333	126		118
Samuel Simpson	0.44%	227	101		86
Santiago Tarrio	0.08%	1250	151		105
Sebastian Friedrichsen	0.28%	357	151		129
Stefan Wears-Taylor	0.01%	10000	401		118
Stephen Ferreira	0.02%	5000	351		136
Steven Brown	0.32%	313	176		72
Stuart Krog	0.16%	625	226		16
Thabiso Ngcobo	0.00%	10000	2501		155
Thomas Spreadborough	0.01%	10000	2501		69
Tobias Eden	0.08%	1250	201		11
Toto Thimba	0.00%	10000	2501		39
Trevor Fisher, Jr.	0.06%	1667	251		33
Trevor Mahoney	0.00%	10000	2001		136
Tristen Strydom	0.17%	588	351		49
Tyran Snyders	0.58%	172	126		33
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen	0.01%	10000	301		129
Victor Pastor	0.11%	909	251		86
Vince Van Veen	0.05%	2000	351		150
Warwick Purchase	0.00%	10000	601		68
Wilco Nienaber	3.70%	27	29	0.30%	39	-0.3	Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/5
Will Enefer	0.30%	333	111		105
Wouter De Vries	0.01%	10000	351		105
Wynand Dingle	0.11%	909	601		86
Yannik Paul	1.15%	87	61		105
Yurav Premlall	2.76%	36	41	0.30%	39	-0.3	Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Jaco Prinsloo	5.40%	19	41	3.00%	5	1	Skybet: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Kieron Van Wyk	4.66%	21	41	2.30%	27	-2	Spreadex: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Deon Germishuys	6.26%	16	23	2.00%	2	4.5	Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.