Simulation Results: Players Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Albert Venter 0.00% 10000 751 61
Altin Van Der Merwe 2.11% 47 41 88
Anthony Michael 0.13% 769 71 74
Ben Van Wyk 0.80% 125 91 44
Bradley De Beer 0.00% 10000 1001 61
Brandon Meads 0.00% 10000 2501 127
Bryce Easton 3.25% 31 29 4
C.J. Du Plessis 0.21% 476 111 44
Carl Mwale 0.00% 10000 2001 113
Carter Rowe 0.00% 10000 1001 44
Christiaan Burke 0.71% 141 41 2
Christian Kriek 0.00% 10000 2501 44
Conner Mackenzie 0.01% 10000 2001 88
Danie Van Niekerk 0.00% 10000 1501 81
Daniel Cronje 0.16% 625 51 96
Daniel Van Tonder 4.14% 24 13 30
David Amm 0.00% 10000 1501 57
Deon Germishuys 4.95% 20 26 1.10% 6 -1.1 Unibet: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Mostert 0.01% 10000 501 122
Eric Wowor 0.00% 10000 2501 96
Estiaan Conradie 0.12% 833 201 8
Ethan Smith 0.09% 1111 201 15
Franklin Manchest 0.00% 10000 1001 122
Gerhard Pepler 0.57% 175 71 44
Graham Van Der Merwe 0.32% 313 151 30
Gregory Mckay 0.01% 10000 401 122
Hayden Griffiths 0.01% 10000 501 36
Haydn Porteous 1.11% 90 51 106
Heinrich Bruiners 0.27% 370 111 81
Hennie Du Plessis 28.48% 3.5 10 20.50% 4 12.8125 Ladbrokes: 9/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hennie Otto 0.12% 833 151 74
Herman Loubser 0.95% 105 41 11
Hunter Epson 0.01% 10000 1001 81
J.C. Ritchie 10.17% 9.8 11 1.20% 1 7.5 PaddyPower: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
J.J. Senekal 0.46% 217 151 43
Jaco Prinsloo 4.06% 25 34 1.20% 11 -1.2 Skybet: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jacques Blaauw 0.53% 189 81 19
Jacques De Villiers 0.27% 370 111 106
Jacquin Hess 0.00% 10000 1001 81
Jake Redman 0.00% 10000 501 96
James Mack 0.34% 294 126 106
James Pennington 0.00% 10000 2001 74
Jarryd Govender 0.00% 10000 2501 135
Jason Broomhead 0.00% 10000 2001 61
Jason Roets 0.38% 263 141 61
Jastice Mashego 0.00% 10000 1251 133
Jean Hugo 1.46% 68 81 0.20% 61 -0.2 PaddyPower: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jean-Paul Strydom 0.05% 2000 351 57
Joe Knox 0.00% 10000 1001 88
Joe Long 0.16% 625 151 60
Jordan Burnand 0.02% 5000 301 19
Jovan Rebula 1.59% 63 21 96
Kael Strydom 0.00% 10000 2501 118
Karabo Mokoena 0.00% 10000 501 15
Keagan Thomas 0.10% 1000 251 44
Keanu Pestana 0.00% 10000 1251 25
Keegan Mclachlan 0.00% 10000 501 54
Keelan Africa 0.00% 10000 2501 113
Keelan Van Wyk 0.01% 10000 351 106
Keenan Davidse 1.60% 63 67 0.10% 54 -0.1 BetMGM: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kieron Van Wyk 1.20% 83 34 8
Kyle Barker 0.61% 164 51 6
Kyle De Beer 0.45% 222 56 61
Kyle McClatchie 0.02% 5000 501 61
Leon Vorster 0.00% 10000 1501 96
Liam Grehan 0.01% 10000 2001 40
Louis Albertse 1.40% 71 36 81
Louis De Jager 0.22% 455 81 44
Luis Carrera 4.54% 22 17 19
Luke Brown 0.40% 250 101 15
Luke Jerling 0.56% 179 91 44
Lwazi Gqira 0.00% 10000 2501 31
Lyle Rowe 0.98% 102 81 30
M.J. Viljoen 2.76% 36 26 74
Makhetha Mazibuko 0.00% 10000 2501 81
Mandla Dlamini 0.00% 10000 2501 128
Marcel Steyn Scholtz 0.00% 10000 2501 53
Marcus Taylor 0.00% 10000 1001 118
Matthew Spacey 0.02% 5000 251 36
Merrick Bremner 0.00% 10000 2001 130
Michael Hollick 1.64% 61 34 44
Mikkel Antonsen 0.02% 5000 1001 61
Musiwalo Nethunzwi 0.00% 10000 1001 122
Neil Schietekat 0.18% 556 201 25
Nick Cunningham 0.00% 10000 2501 130
Nikhil Rama 1.37% 73 67 11
Nyasha Muyambo 0.00% 10000 2501 81
Ockie Strydom 0.27% 370 141 19
Oliver Bekker 1.67% 60 51 2
Otto Van Buynder 0.00% 10000 501 74
Paul Boshoff 0.01% 10000 351 88
Peter Karmis 0.09% 1111 301 36
Pierre Pellegrin 0.00% 10000 2001 134
Pierre Viallaneix 0.29% 345 151 40
Pieter Moolman 5.45% 18 13 8
Quintin Wilsnach 0.02% 5000 1001 40
Rhys West 0.04% 2500 401 61
Ricky Hendler 0.12% 833 201 30
Robson Chinhoi 0.02% 5000 751 106
Ronald Rugumayo 0.00% 10000 751 106
Rourke Van Der Spuy 0.01% 10000 501 96
Rowan Lester 0.17% 588 151 61
Ruan Conradie 0.13% 769 201 106
Ruan De Smidt 0.00% 10000 1001 118
Ruan Groenewald 0.00% 10000 2001 54
Ruan Korb 0.07% 1429 201 36
Rupert Kaminski 0.40% 250 126 61
Ryan Tipping 0.00% 10000 2001 122
Ryan Van Der Klis 0.07% 1429 251 61
Ryan Van Velzen 2.97% 34 19 11
Samuel Simpson 0.37% 270 126 30
Sentanio Minnie 0.00% 10000 2001 113
Simon Du Plooy 0.00% 10000 1501 19
Slade Pickering 0.00% 10000 2001 88
Stals Swart 0.07% 1429 501 19
Stephen Ferreira 0.03% 3333 301 30
Stuart Krog 0.13% 769 251 15
Tafadzwa Nyamukondiwa 0.00% 10000 2501 96
Thabiso Ngcobo 0.00% 10000 2001 88
Thomas Spreadborough 0.01% 10000 501 96
Tomas Gana 0.01% 10000 1501 25
Toto Thimba 0.01% 10000 1001 88
Trevor Fisher, Jr. 0.17% 588 151 116
Trevor Mahoney 0.00% 10000 1001 74
Tristen Strydom 0.03% 3333 401 88
Tristin Galant 0.00% 10000 2501 132
Tumelo Molloyi 0.00% 10000 2001 113
Tyran Snyders 0.43% 233 91 74
Tyron Davidowitz 0.00% 10000 1501 96
Tyrone Ryan 0.19% 526 111 61
Ulrich Van Den Berg 0.06% 1667 251 25
Umar Davids 0.00% 10000 2501 128
Warwick Purchase 0.22% 455 61 96
Werner Deyzel 0.00% 10000 1501 113
Wynand Dingle 0.13% 769 201 128
Xander Basson 0.25% 400 251 25
Zack Chegwidden 0.00% 10000 1001 118

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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