Simulation Results: Vodacom Origins - Parys

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Albert Venter 0.01% 10000 1251 77
Alex Haindl 0.00% 10000 1251 122
Allen John 0.07% 1429 41 70
Allister De Kock 0.00% 10000 1501 63
Altin Van Der Merwe 1.55% 65 51 11
Anthony Michael 0.15% 667 251 117
Austin Bautista 1.38% 72 41 49
Ben Van Wyk 0.20% 500 151 6
Brandon Meads 0.09% 1111 301 124
Bronwyn Doeg 0.00% 10000 1001 120
C.J. Du Plessis 0.33% 303 251 9
Cara Ford 0.00% 10000 1251 107
Cara Gorlei 0.00% 10000 401 56
Christiaan Basson 0.04% 2500 301 47
Christiaan Burke 0.38% 263 81 63
Christian Kriek 0.01% 10000 551 110
Conner Mackenzie 0.22% 455 176 70
Danie Van Niekerk 0.03% 3333 351 20
Doug McGuigan 0.28% 357 151 61
Dylan Mostert 0.05% 2000 451 58
Eric Wowor 0.01% 10000 1501 110
Estiaan Conradie 0.28% 357 126 77
Ethan Smith 0.08% 1250 251 49
Franklin Manchest 0.02% 5000 451 70
Fredrik From 0.50% 200 51 62
Gabrielle Venter 0.00% 10000 1001 39
George Coetzee 2.28% 44 41 3
Gerhard Pepler 0.63% 159 61 20
Graham Van Der Merwe 1.05% 95 51 39
Gregory Mckay 0.08% 1250 276 20
Hayden Griffiths 0.03% 3333 351 39
Heinrich Bruiners 3.36% 30 56 1.60% 49 -1.6 Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hennie O'Kennedy 0.63% 159 151 63
Hennie Otto 0.70% 143 61 110
Herman Loubser 2.68% 37 41 0.20% 1 5 QuinnBet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
J.J. Senekal 2.53% 40 51 0.60% 63 -0.6 Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jack Hawksby 0.23% 435 141 105
Jaco Ahlers 6.63% 15 26 2.90% 28 -2.9 Spreadex: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jaco Prinsloo 8.68% 12 19 3.60% 11 -3.6 Spreadex: 18/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jacques Blaauw 1.96% 51 34 70
Jacques De Villiers 0.23% 435 131 77
Jacquin Hess 0.01% 10000 451 102
James Mack 0.29% 345 401 77
Jason Broomhead 0.00% 10000 1001 49
Jason Roets 0.66% 152 126 35
Jean Hugo 6.26% 16 26 2.50% 39 -2.5 Spreadex: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jean-Paul Strydom 0.97% 103 126 0.20% 77 -0.2 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joe Long 0.62% 161 151 3
Jonathan Broomhead 3.86% 26 14 110
Jordan Burnand 0.36% 278 81 92
Jordan Duminy 0.07% 1429 201 124
Karabo Mokoena 0.02% 5000 601 97
Keagan Thomas 0.12% 833 301 97
Keanu Pestana 0.00% 10000 1251 105
Keegan Mclachlan 0.01% 10000 251 54
Keelan Van Wyk 0.06% 1667 351 20
Keenan Davidse 2.97% 34 31 11
Kelsey Nicholas 0.00% 10000 1001 77
Kieran Vincent 2.18% 46 16 11
Kyle Barker 1.11% 90 67 28
Kyle De Beer 2.15% 47 46 17
Kyle McClatchie 0.33% 303 161 39
Leon Vorster 0.00% 10000 401 97
Liam Grehan 0.19% 526 151 49
Lora Assad 0.00% 10000 1001
Luca Filippi 0.39% 256 76 124
Luis Carrera 1.17% 85 14 77
Luke Brown 0.82% 122 91 17
Luke Jerling 2.64% 38 34 77
Luke Mayo 0.01% 10000 1001 35
Lyle Rowe 1.37% 73 56 92
M.J. Viljoen 1.49% 67 36 63
Madalitso Muthiya 0.04% 2500 601
Makhetha Mazibuko 0.00% 10000 2501 110
Marcel Steyn Scholtz 0.01% 10000 201 102
Marcus Taylor 0.00% 10000 1001 7
Martin Rohwer 2.65% 38 41 0.20% 28 -0.2 Spreadex: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Martin Vorster 2.99% 33 23 17
Matthew Spacey 0.03% 3333 301 77
Mikkel Antonsen 0.02% 5000 301 11
Musiwalo Nethunzwi 0.03% 3333 551 110
Nadia Van Der Westhuizen 0.00% 10000 1001 35
Nick Cunningham 0.00% 10000 1001 121
Nikhil Rama 1.75% 57 36 39
Ockie Strydom 1.59% 63 71 0.20% 60 -0.2 Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Otto Van Buynder 0.08% 1250 601 107
Paul Boshoff 0.10% 1000 111 28
Peter Karmis 0.45% 222 131 70
Pierre Pellegrin 0.01% 10000 751 77
Pierre Viallaneix 0.02% 5000 551 9
Pieter Moolman 7.75% 13 16 1.60% 3 1.6 Spreadex: 15/1, 6pl, 1/5
Quintin Wilsnach 0.10% 1000 251 58
Rhys West 0.39% 256 161 70
Ricky Hendler 1.67% 60 67 0.20% 63 -0.2 Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Robson Chinhoi 0.05% 2000 201 39
Rourke Van Der Spuy 0.63% 159 111 77
Rowan Lester 0.18% 556 251 20
Ruan Conradie 0.08% 1250 201 77
Ruan De Smidt 0.06% 1667 351 28
Ruan Groenewald 0.00% 10000 1501 28
Ruan Korb 0.26% 385 161 54
Rupert Kaminski 1.20% 83 101 0.20% 39 -0.2 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryan Van Der Klis 0.09% 1111 226 28
Samuel Simpson 1.54% 65 34 97
Sean Cronje 0.00% 10000 401 77
Sentanio Minnie 0.01% 10000 301 102
Simon Du Plooy 0.21% 476 251 117
Slade Pickering 0.01% 10000 1501 77
Stals Swart 0.48% 208 151 35
Stephen Ferreira 0.06% 1667 376 63
Stuart Krog 0.14% 714 326 20
Symone Henriques 0.00% 10000 1001 110
Thabiso Ngcobo 0.00% 10000 1501 92
Thomas Spreadborough 0.01% 10000 401 92
Tomas Gana 0.14% 714 276 77
Toto Thimba 0.06% 1667 451 97
Trevor Fisher, Jr. 0.28% 357 91 20
Tristen Strydom 0.07% 1429 351 92
Tyran Snyders 0.35% 286 201 7
Tyron Davidowitz 0.02% 5000 401 47
Tyrone Ryan 0.05% 2000 176 70
Warwick Purchase 0.26% 385 111 56
Werner Deyzel 0.03% 3333 351 123
Wynand Dingle 0.47% 213 126 11
Xander Basson 0.51% 196 91 20
Yurav Premlall 5.56% 18 15 2
Zack Chegwidden 0.00% 10000 1001 107
Zethu Myeki 0.00% 10000 751 119

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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