Simulation Results: Fitch and Leedes PGA Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Albert Venter 0.01% 10000 501 67
Allen John 0.05% 2000 151 67
Allister De Kock 0.00% 10000 2501 126
Altin Van Der Merwe 0.60% 167 81 67
Andre Loots 0.00% 10000 2001 136
Andre Van Zyl 0.00% 10000 1001 93
Andrew Van Der Knaap 0.00% 10000 1001 121
Anthony Michael 0.02% 5000 151 67
Barend Botha 1.57% 64 11 7
Ben Van Wyk 0.26% 385 111 34
Brandon Meads 0.00% 10000 2501 100
Brandon Stone 6.49% 15 19 1.30% 31 -1.3 PaddyPower: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryce Easton 4.78% 21 23 0.50% 17 -0.5 BetMGM: 22/1, 6pl, 1/5
C.J. Du Plessis 0.11% 909 151 12
Calvin Caldeira 0.00% 10000 1001 93
Casey Jarvis 15.60% 6.4 10 6.20% 10 -6.2 Spreadex: 9/1, 6pl, 1/5
Celestin Nsanzuwera 0.00% 10000 78
Christiaan Basson 0.01% 10000 501 111
Christiaan Burke 1.48% 68 34 17
Christian Kriek 0.00% 10000 1501 93
Conner Mackenzie 0.00% 10000 2501 78
Cornel Muller 0.00% 10000 2001 111
Danie Van Niekerk 0.00% 10000 801 106
Daniel Gouws 0.00% 10000 1001 131
David Amm 0.00% 10000 2501 61
Dean Burmester 12.57% 8 6.5 61
Dean Nysschen 0.00% 10000 2001 115
Deon Germishuys 6.20% 16 21 1.50% 1 18 BetMGM: 20/1, 6pl, 1/5
Doug McGuigan 0.00% 10000 1501
Dylan Mostert 0.00% 10000 351 40
Edwin Compton 0.00% 10000 1001 134
Eric Wowor 0.00% 10000 2501 115
Estiaan Conradie 0.11% 909 226 127
Ethan Smith 0.06% 1667 201 111
Franklin Manchest 0.00% 10000 2001 53
George Coetzee 0.11% 909 51 44
George Van Vuuren 0.00% 10000 1001 78
Gerhard Pepler 0.13% 769 141 108
Graham Van Der Merwe 0.44% 227 91 48
Gregg Upton 0.00% 10000 2001 93
Gregory Mckay 0.00% 10000 1001 100
Hayden Griffiths 0.00% 10000 501 36
Heinrich Bruiners 0.13% 769 151 34
Hennie Du Plessis 14.04% 7.1 12 6.20% 2 3.72 Star Sports: 11/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hennie O'Kennedy 0.02% 5000 301 17
Hennie Otto 0.02% 5000 351 67
Herman Loubser 0.81% 123 56 53
Hunter Epson 0.00% 10000 1501 84
J.J. Senekal 0.33% 303 151 23
Jack Hawksby 0.01% 10000 351 67
Jaco Ahlers 5.98% 17 21 1.30% 9 -1.3 Spreadex: 20/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jaco Prinsloo 3.06% 33 41 0.60% 23 -0.6 Spreadex: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jacques Blaauw 0.21% 476 101 5
Jacques De Villiers 0.14% 714 126 121
Jacques Kok 0.00% 10000 2501 84
Jake Redman 0.00% 10000 751 67
Jake Roos 0.00% 10000 351 103
James Kamte 0.00% 10000 1001 135
James Mack 0.14% 714 176 67
James Pennington 0.00% 10000 2501 93
Jason Roets 0.10% 1000 201 26
Jastice Mashego 0.00% 10000 2501 127
Jean Hugo 0.82% 122 111 36
Jean-Paul Strydom 0.02% 5000 276 40
Joe Knox 0.00% 10000 1501 138
Joe Long 0.11% 909 251 10
Joe Nawanga 0.00% 10000 2001 132
Jordan Burnand 0.07% 1429 251 5
Karabo Mokoena 0.00% 10000 1001 26
Kayle Wykes 0.00% 10000 2501 115
Keagan Thomas 0.02% 5000 351 26
Keanu Pestana 0.00% 10000 1001 84
Keegan Mclachlan 0.00% 10000 501 111
Keenan Davidse 1.36% 74 46 12
Kyle Barker 0.55% 182 101 61
Kyle De Beer 0.43% 233 81 67
Kyle McClatchie 0.00% 10000 801 84
Leon Vorster 0.00% 10000 2501 108
Liam Grehan 0.02% 5000 501 31
Louis Albertse 0.48% 208 91 17
Louis De Jager 0.13% 769 126 138
Luca Filippi 0.00% 10000 501 84
Luis Carrera 1.79% 56 34 67
Luke Jerling 0.45% 222 101 12
Lyle Rowe 0.87% 115 111 84
M.J. Viljoen 0.77% 130 56 56
Makhetha Mazibuko 0.00% 10000 2501 127
Malcolm Mitchell 0.04% 2500 251 59
Marcel Steyn Scholtz 0.00% 10000 2001 84
Marcus Taylor 0.00% 10000 1501 115
Martin Vorster 2.48% 40 46 0.30% 26 -0.3 BetMGM: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matthew Spacey 0.01% 10000 351 51
Merrick Bremner 0.00% 10000 2501 138
Mikkel Antonsen 0.00% 10000 2001 103
Musiwalo Nethunzwi 0.00% 10000 1501 121
Neil Schietekat 0.19% 526 101 78
Nick Cunningham 0.00% 10000 2501 98
Nikhil Rama 1.19% 84 56 31
Nyasha Muyambo 0.00% 10000 2501 108
Otto Van Buynder 0.00% 10000 601 40
Paul Boshoff 0.00% 10000 1001
Peter Karmis 0.18% 556 111 36
Pierre Viallaneix 0.08% 1250 251 48
Pieter Moolman 5.49% 18 19 0.20% 17 -0.2 PaddyPower: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
Quintin Wilsnach 0.00% 10000 1001 36
Rhys Enoch 0.13% 769 151 23
Rhys West 0.05% 2000 351 46
Ricky Hendler 0.04% 2500 251 121
Robson Chinhoi 0.00% 10000 1001 51
Ronald Rugumayo 0.00% 10000 1001 44
Rourke Van Der Spuy 0.00% 10000 801 78
Rowan Lester 0.09% 1111 201 100
Ruan Conradie 0.04% 2500 351 53
Ruan De Smidt 0.00% 10000 1251 115
Ruan Groenewald 0.00% 10000 2001 58
Ruan Korb 0.02% 5000 251 61
Ruan Kotze 0.00% 10000 1001 137
Rupert Kaminski 0.09% 1111 201 17
Ryan Van Der Klis 0.02% 5000 501 61
Ryan Welsh 0.00% 10000 1001 127
S.P. Mthethwa 0.00% 10000 2501 132
Samuel Simpson 0.19% 526 151 2
Simon Du Plooy 0.01% 10000 1001 138
Slade Pickering 0.00% 10000 2501 98
Stals Swart 0.08% 1250 251 60
Stephen Ferreira 0.03% 3333 351 46
Stuart Krog 0.10% 1000 251 4
Tafadzwa Nyamukondiwa 0.00% 10000 2501 121
Thabiso Ngcobo 0.00% 10000 2001 57
Thomas Spreadborough 0.00% 10000 501 48
Tomas Gana 0.00% 10000 501 12
Toto Thimba 0.00% 10000 2001 12
Tristen Strydom 0.00% 10000 601 26
Tumelo Molloyi 0.00% 10000 2501 115
Tyran Snyders 0.35% 286 126 40
Tyron Davidowitz 0.00% 10000 2501 84
Tyrone Ryan 0.09% 1111 201 103
Warwick Purchase 0.05% 2000 201 106
Werner Deyzel 0.00% 10000 2501 138
Wilco Nienaber 3.70% 27 26 78
Wynand Dingle 0.05% 2000 301 61
Xander Basson 0.08% 1250 351 67
Zack Chegwidden 0.00% 10000 2001 84
Zander Lombard 1.62% 62 17 7

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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