Simulation Results: Nedbank Golf Challenge

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adrian Meronk 1.78% 56 81 0.60% 55 -0.6 Betfred: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adrien Saddier 1.11% 90 61 18
Aldrich Potgieter 1.48% 68 34 38
Alejandro Del Rey 1.09% 92 91 23
Andy Sullivan 2.82% 35 51 0.90% 8 -0.9 Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Angel Ayora 2.51% 40 19 8
Angel Hidalgo 0.49% 204 201 46
Antoine Rozner 1.73% 58 67 0.20% 46 -0.2 Unibet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Calum Hill 1.09% 92 91 40
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 4.09% 24 16 4
Christo Lamprecht 1.11% 90 56 33
Connor Syme 0.78% 128 181 0.20% 51 -0.2 Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dan Bradbury 1.36% 74 67 2
Daniel Gavins 0.05% 2000 2001 65
Daniel Van Tonder 0.58% 172 176 10
Darius Van Driel 0.58% 172 251 0.20% 53 -0.2 Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Ravetto 0.77% 130 151 0.10% 43 -0.1 Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Frittelli 0.68% 147 176 0.10% 59 -0.1 Betfred: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Naidoo 0.27% 370 351 58
Eugenio Chacarra 1.18% 85 71 28
Ewen Ferguson 1.49% 67 71 0.10% 10 -0.1 BetMGM: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Francesco Molinari 1.17% 85 111 0.30% 10 -0.3 Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Frederic Lacroix 1.19% 84 81 46
Garrick Higgo 4.35% 23 17 16
Grant Forrest 0.96% 104 111 0.10% 23 -0.1 Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Guido Migliozzi 0.67% 149 101 52
Haotong Li 2.46% 41 34 10
Jacob Skov Olesen 1.83% 55 61 0.20% 40 -0.2 Unibet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jacques Kruyswijk 1.05% 95 126 0.30% 46 -0.3 Betfred: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jayden Schaper 2.94% 34 23 2
Jesper Svensson 1.77% 56 36 38
Joakim Lagergren 0.95% 105 91 33
Johannes Veerman 0.97% 103 91 63
John Parry 1.88% 53 46 18
Joost Luiten 2.01% 50 56 0.20% 10 -0.2 Spreadex: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jordan Smith 3.35% 30 26 21
Jorge Campillo 1.57% 64 81 0.30% 23 -0.3 Unibet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julien Guerrier 1.11% 90 126 0.30% 6 -0.3 Betfred: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Junghwan Lee 0.32% 313 301 23
Kristoffer Reitan 1.58% 63 29 1
Laurie Canter 2.61% 38 34 66
Marcel Siem 0.58% 172 251 0.20% 62 -0.2 Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marco Penge 3.19% 31 13 43
Marcus Armitage 1.27% 79 86 0.10% 21 -0.1 Spreadex: 85/1, 5pl, 1/4
Martin Couvra 0.83% 120 111 30
Matteo Manassero 0.80% 125 126 43
Nacho Elvira 0.84% 119 126 30
Nick Taylor 2.45% 41 31 18
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.67% 149 176 0.10% 63 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Niklas Norgaard Moller 1.43% 70 56 53
Ockie Strydom 0.15% 667 351 59
Oliver Lindell 1.28% 78 41 40
Pablo Larrazabal 0.32% 313 351 33
Paul Waring 0.40% 250 201 57
Richard Mansell 1.16% 86 111 0.30% 30 -0.3 Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rikuya Hoshino 0.84% 119 111 56
Ryggs Johnston 0.14% 714 751 33
Shaun Norris 0.49% 204 301 0.20% 5 7.4 Betfred: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Detry 1.82% 55 29 6
Thorbjorn Olesen 4.51% 22 17 28
Thriston Lawrence 1.74% 57 34 33
Tom McKibbin 3.32% 30 19 16
Viktor Hovland 6.56% 15 9 23
Will Zalatoris 2.07% 48 34 15
Yurav Premlall 0.34% 294 351 0.10% 59 -0.1 Betfred: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuto Katsuragawa 1.06% 94 111 0.20% 46 -0.2 Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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