Simulation Results: NTT Data Pro-Am

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adri Arnaus	1.09%	92	67		45
Albert Boneta	0.55%	182	101		32
Alexander Knappe	0.04%	2500	126		48
Alfie Plant	0.06%	1667	126		48
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	0.32%	313	126		69
Allen John	0.02%	5000	226		90
Altin Van der Merwe	0.09%	1111	251		55
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.00%	10000	1501		115
Andrew Wilson	1.04%	96	56		90
Anton Albers	0.19%	526	151		103
Asier Aguirre Izcue	0.00%	10000	1001		137
Austin Bautista	1.12%	89	67		71
Ayden Knight	0.00%	10000	3001		151
Baard Skogen	0.94%	106	51		45
Benjamin Follett-Smith	1.87%	53	41		9
Benjamin Hebert	2.39%	42	51	0.40%	147	-0.4	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Benjamin Rusch	0.06%	1667	201		71
Bjorn Akesson	0.26%	385	126		32
Borja Virto	0.86%	116	67		55
Bryce Easton	0.48%	208	81		2
C.J. Du Plessis	0.00%	10000	501		90
Callan Barrow	0.14%	714	351		55
Callum Tarren	0.66%	152	81		18
Calum Fyfe	0.07%	1429	126		13
Casey Jarvis	11.99%	8.3	17	6.50%	13	-6.5	Bet365: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christiaan Burke	0.45%	222	51		18
Clement Sordet	1.48%	68	51		48
Conor Purcell	1.33%	75	41		32
Dan Erickson	1.74%	57	67	0.30%	55	-0.3	QuinnBet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Horsey	0.17%	588	51		32
Deon Germishuys	4.15%	24	26	0.30%	6	-0.3	Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Mostert	0.00%	10000	1501		143
Eddie Pepperell	2.09%	48	41		18
Ernie Els	2.14%	47	51	0.20%	48	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ethan Smith	0.00%	10000	601		90
Filip Mruzek	0.08%	1250	251		61
Franklin Manchest	0.00%	10000	1251		103
Gary Hurley	0.69%	145	151		27
George Coetzee	0.09%	1111	111		156
Gerhard Pepler	0.05%	2000	251		18
Hamish Brown	1.05%	95	51		13
Haraldur Magnus	0.10%	1000	301		71
Haydn Porteous	0.46%	217	101		69
Heinrich Bruiners	0.02%	5000	501		137
Hennie O'Kennedy	0.00%	10000	751		115
Hennie Otto	0.05%	2000	126		9
Herman Loubser	0.97%	103	81		66
Hunter Logan	0.02%	5000	501		2
Hurly Long	0.10%	1000	101		115
J.J. Senekal	0.15%	667	301		13
Jack Mcdonald	0.11%	909	67		32
Jack Yule	0.00%	10000	501		90
Jaco Ahlers	2.08%	48	46		6
Jaco Prinsloo	3.67%	27	51	1.70%	18	-1.7	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jacques Blaauw	0.05%	2000	201		71
Jacques De Villiers	0.01%	10000	601		71
Jacquin Hess	0.00%	10000	1501		103
James Mack	0.03%	3333	451		137
James Meyer De Beco	0.04%	2500	1501		9
Jamie Rutherford	0.77%	130	71		115
Jannik De Bruyn	2.19%	46	46		90
Jason Roets	0.16%	625	126		90
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.01%	10000	501		131
Jean Hugo	0.33%	303	101		137
Jean-Paul Strydom	0.00%	10000	251		43
Jeppe Kristian Andersen	0.12%	833	201		48
Joel Moscatel	0.07%	1429	201		115
John Gough	0.01%	10000	251		71
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	0.04%	2500	201		131
Jordan Duminy	0.00%	10000	2501		148
Jovan Rebula	0.40%	250	81		71
Julien Quesne	0.63%	159	81		61
Julien Sale	0.68%	147	91		71
Justin Walters	0.77%	130	67		13
Karabo Mokoena	0.00%	10000	601		103
Keelan Africa	0.00%	10000	3001		137
Keenan Davidse	0.19%	526	151		71
Kian Rose	0.00%	10000	501		131
Kieran Vincent	4.32%	23	29	0.90%	2	2.925	Bet365: 30/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kyle Barker	0.68%	147	91		90
Kyle De Beer	0.07%	1429	251		115
Lars Van Meijel	0.74%	135	71		71
Liam Grehan	0.00%	10000	601		127
Liam Nolan	0.12%	833	176		27
Louis Albertse	0.80%	125	81		18
Lucas Vacarisas	0.14%	714	201		48
Luis Carrera	0.16%	625	126		67
Lukas Nemecz	0.89%	112	67		32
Luke Brown	0.46%	217	67		9
Luke Jerling	0.05%	2000	351		131
Lyle Rowe	0.19%	526	176		103
M.J. Daffue	0.18%	556	151		1
M.J. Viljoen	1.42%	70	56		27
Makhetha Mazibuko	0.00%	10000	2501		148
Malcolm Mitchell	0.01%	10000	401		90
Martin Rohwer	0.21%	476	251		71
Martin Vorster	1.71%	58	51		143
Matthew Baldwin	0.53%	189	67		32
Matthew Southgate	0.19%	526	151		45
Matthias Schwab	0.04%	2500	201		103
Matthis Besard	0.68%	147	71		71
Max Kennedy	0.43%	233	101		2
Maxence Giboudot	1.06%	94	67		55
Maximilian Kieffer	2.15%	47	51	0.20%	71	-0.2	Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Maxwell Martin	0.00%	10000	1001		148
Merrick Bremner	0.00%	10000	2501		154
Mike Toorop	0.00%	10000	401		32
Mikkel Antonsen	0.00%	10000	1001		71
Neil Schietekat	0.02%	5000	451		48
Nick Bachem	0.06%	1667	501		103
Nick Carlson	0.30%	333	101		61
Nikhil Rama	0.26%	385	101		71
Oliver Bekker	0.22%	455	51		127
Pablo Ereno Perez	2.31%	43	36		103
Palmer Jackson	0.05%	2000	251		126
Pedro Figueiredo	0.07%	1429	201		90
Per Langfors	2.00%	50	51		127
Pierre Viallaneix	0.04%	2500	301		32
Pieter Moolman	4.27%	23	251	3.90%	18	-3.9	Skybet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rhys Enoch	0.12%	833	151		151
Rhys West	0.00%	10000	751		153
Robin Petersson	0.03%	3333	351		115
Robin Sciot-Siegrist	0.62%	161	81		115
Robin Williams	2.65%	38	41	0.20%	127	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Robson Chinhoi	0.00%	10000	1501		131
Ronan Kleu	0.25%	400	201		90
Rowan Lester	0.02%	5000	501		55
Ruan Korb	0.02%	5000	401		61
Rupert Kaminski	0.02%	5000	351		137
Ryan Lumsden	1.85%	54	56	0.10%	27	-0.1	Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryan Van Velzen	1.09%	92	51		61
Sam Hutsby	0.13%	769	176		6
Sam Jones	0.57%	175	56		103
Sam Locke	0.00%	10000	501		71
Samuel Simpson	0.26%	385	151		115
Santiago Tarrio	0.57%	175	71		32
Sebastian Friedrichsen	0.01%	10000	351		32
Shaun Norris	2.68%	37	31		68
Stefan Wears-Taylor	0.00%	10000	601		71
Stephen Ferreira	0.00%	10000	501		143
Steven Brown	0.23%	435	201		90
Stuart Krog	0.04%	2500	251		71
Tapio Pulkkanen	1.76%	57	51		27
Thomas Spreadborough	0.00%	10000	1501		131
Tom Lewis	0.37%	270	67		90
Toto Thimba	0.00%	10000	2001		115
Trevor Fisher, Jr.	0.11%	909	1501		103
Tyran Snyders	0.14%	714	151		71
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen	0.02%	5000	501
Victor Pastor	0.15%	667	151		103
Vince Van Veen	0.01%	10000	501		143
Warwick Purchase	0.00%	10000	1001		154
Wilco Nienaber	3.48%	29	21		18
Will Enefer	0.98%	102	71		43
Yannik Paul	0.23%	435	101		18
Yurav Premlall	0.82%	122	56		103

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Casey Jarvis	11.99%	8.3	17	6.50%	13	-2	Bet365: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Pieter Moolman	4.27%	23	251	3.90%	18	-2	Skybet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Jaco Prinsloo	3.67%	27	51	1.70%	18	-2	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.