Simulation Results: Mediclinic Invitational

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Breen 0.04% 2500 1001 64
Albert Venter 0.13% 769 751 125
Alex Haindl 0.04% 2500 2001 78
Altin Van Der Merwe 1.18% 85 36 14
Andre De Decker 0.09% 1111 1001 122
Andrew Williamson 0.11% 909 1001 59
Ben Van Wyk 0.29% 345 101 11
Bradford Vaughan 0.00% 10000 2501 116
Brandon Gildenhuys 0.02% 5000 2501 107
Brandon Meads 0.23% 435 601 0.10% 87 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Pieters 0.13% 769 401 39
C.J. Du Plessis 0.84% 119 91 29
Callum Mowat 0.32% 313 451 0.10% 23 -0.1 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christiaan Burke 0.74% 135 51 69
Christian Kriek 0.00% 10000 751 78
Christo Roos 0.00% 10000 2001 107
Christopher Long 0.02% 5000 1001 69
Colin Nel 0.11% 909 501 29
Conner Mackenzie 0.38% 263 401 0.10% 96 -0.1 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cornel Muller 0.01% 10000 2501 96
Craig Ross 0.93% 108 101 53
Danie Van Niekerk 0.69% 145 141 96
Daniel Van Tonder 6.28% 16 12 2
David Amm 0.08% 1250 1501 112
Dayne Moore 0.15% 667 1501 0.10% 59 -0.1 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dian Kruger 0.00% 10000 1001 53
Dylan O'Leary 0.03% 3333 1001 116
Estiaan Conradie 0.25% 400 301 112
Ethan Smith 0.20% 500 226 29
Eugene Du Plessis 0.02% 5000 751 67
Fabrizio De Abreu 0.01% 10000 1001 123
Franklin Manchest 0.21% 476 601 69
Fredrik From 1.44% 69 91 0.30% 8 -0.3 Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Gary Kemp 0.03% 3333 1501 116
Gerard Du Plooy 0.02% 5000 2001 96
Gerhard Pepler 0.83% 120 101 29
Graham Van Der Merwe 0.97% 103 141 0.30% 23 -0.3 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gregory Mckay 0.12% 833 751 69
Hayden Griffiths 0.06% 1667 2501 87
Haydn Porteous 0.16% 625 601 96
Heinrich Bruiners 1.35% 74 51 14
Herman Loubser 0.65% 154 91 49
Irvin Mazibuko 0.01% 10000 2001 126
J.C. Ritchie 4.73% 21 19 5
J.J. Senekal 2.90% 34 34 29
Jack Hawksby 1.15% 87 101 0.20% 64 -0.2 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jaco Prinsloo 3.14% 32 26 87
Jaco Van Zyl 0.78% 128 111 27
Jacob Oakley 0.52% 192 251 0.10% 87 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jacques Blaauw 1.76% 57 51 3
Jacques De Villiers 0.60% 167 141 96
Jake Redman 0.18% 556 601 69
James Kamte 0.01% 10000 2001 116
James Mack 0.39% 256 401 0.10% 23 -0.1 Skybet: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Pennington 0.01% 10000 2501 107
Jason Roets 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 78 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jbe Kruger 1.95% 51 61 0.30% 29 -0.3 Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jean Hugo 2.84% 35 31 19
Joe Long 0.35% 286 251 27
Jonathan Broomhead 3.61% 28 11 3
Jordan Duminy 0.01% 10000 1001 78
Jovan Rebula 2.26% 44 29 39
Justin Walters 2.60% 38 26 11
Karabo Mokoena 0.13% 769 1501 0.10% 53 -0.1 Skybet: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kayle Wykes 0.03% 3333 2001 87
Keagan Thomas 0.19% 526 751 0.10% 29 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Keegan Mclachlan 0.23% 435 251 78
Keelan Van Wyk 0.16% 625 751 78
Keenan Davidse 3.35% 30 17 14
Keith Horne 0.66% 152 251 0.30% 19 -0.3 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kyle Barker 1.11% 90 81 61
Kyle De Beer 0.62% 161 81 96
Kyle McClatchie 0.37% 270 501 0.20% 47 -0.2 Skybet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
L.B. Boshoff 0.14% 714 1501 0.10% 116 -0.1 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Leon Vorster 0.06% 1667 1001 61
Louis Albertse 2.48% 40 41 39
Luke Brown 1.99% 50 29 8
Lyle Pedro 0.00% 10000 3001 68
Lyle Rowe 1.37% 73 71 23
M.J. Viljoen 1.29% 78 71 29
Makhetha Mazibuko 0.08% 1250 1501 78
Malcolm Mitchell 1.98% 51 36 58
Martin Rohwer 0.87% 115 101 14
Martin Vorster 1.97% 51 21 39
Matthew Spacey 0.28% 357 301 69
Maximilian Steinlechner 0.86% 116 21 1
Merrick Bremner 0.04% 2500 1501 107
Neil Schietekat 1.86% 54 61 0.20% 112 -0.2 Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nick Cunningham 0.15% 667 751 87
Nikhil Rama 1.88% 53 29 8
Njoroge Kibugu 0.04% 2500 1001
Otto Van Buynder 0.22% 455 351 39
Pierre Pellegrin 0.20% 500 601 96
Pieter Moolman 5.57% 18 13 57
Pride Sembo 0.00% 10000 5001 116
Promise Sombreiro 0.01% 10000 2001 49
Quintin Wilsnach 0.37% 270 501 0.20% 19 -0.2 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Regan Steyn 0.04% 2500 2001 49
Rhys West 0.43% 233 226 64
Ricky Hendler 1.05% 95 67 112
Robson Chinhoi 0.36% 278 351 0.10% 61 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ross Mcgowan 1.72% 58 51 96
Rourke Van Der Spuy 0.89% 112 151 0.20% 53 -0.2 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ruan Conradie 0.71% 141 251 0.30% 69 -0.3 Skybet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ruan De Smidt 0.19% 526 601 44
Ruan Groenewald 0.08% 1250 2001 47
Ruan Korb 0.57% 175 126 123
Rupert Kaminski 1.76% 57 46 19
Samuel Simpson 0.36% 278 141 11
Sean Cronje 0.09% 1111 501 107
Sentanio Minnie 0.04% 2500 1501 78
Simon Du Plooy 0.21% 476 301 49
Stals Swart 0.32% 313 301 14
Stefan Wears-Taylor 0.51% 196 126 29
Stuart Krog 0.51% 196 226 0.10% 44 -0.1 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Thabiso Ngcobo 0.01% 10000 2501 87
Thanda Mavundla 0.03% 3333 1001 27
Therion Nel 0.09% 1111 1501 69
Toto Thimba 0.13% 769 1501 0.10% 96 -0.1 Skybet: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Travis Ladner 0.10% 1000 1001 69
Trevor Fisher, Jr. 1.33% 75 41 87
Tristin Galant 0.02% 5000 1501 87
Tyran Snyders 1.46% 68 46 29
Umar Davids 0.00% 10000 5001 96
Vaughn Van Deventer 0.12% 833 1501 0.10% 78 -0.1 Skybet: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Werner Deyzel 0.27% 370 201 44
Wynand Dingle 1.19% 84 101 0.20% 7 -0.2 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yurav Premlall 5.34% 19 10 5

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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