Simulation Results: Mediclinic Invitational

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Breen	0.00%	10000	1001		14
Albert Venter	0.00%	10000	751		36
Allen John	1.25%	80	36		36
Altin Van Der Merwe	1.95%	51	29		57
Anthony Michael	0.08%	1250	151		43
Astin Arthur	0.00%	10000	251		82
Austin Bautista	4.82%	21	15		2
Benjamin Follett-Smith	2.80%	36	26		69
Benjamin Van Wyk	0.18%	556	111		14
Brandon Pieters	0.00%	10000	1001		47
C.J. Du Plessis	0.10%	1000	226		106
Callum Mowat	0.00%	10000	751		100
Carter Rowe	0.00%	10000	801		89
Charl Barnard	0.01%	10000	126		82
Christiaan Burke	1.98%	51	23		4
Cole Stevens	0.00%	10000	176		14
Conner Mackenzie	0.01%	10000	451		69
Daniel Cronje	0.96%	104	36		14
Deon Germishuys	4.66%	21	16		36
Dian Kruger	0.40%	250	451	0.20%	82	-0.2	Spreadex: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dillon Germshuys	0.00%	10000	751		36
Doug McGuigan	0.00%	10000	801		36
Dylan Mostert	0.02%	5000	451		114
Dylan Naidoo	0.59%	169	51		23
Eric Wowor	0.00%	10000	1251		69
Estiaan Conradie	0.07%	1429	201		89
Ethan Smith	0.04%	2500	251		80
Franklin Manchest	0.00%	10000	751		60
Gerhard Pepler	0.09%	1111	161		23
Graham Van Der Merwe	2.84%	35	29		7
Greg Snow	0.00%	10000	1501		106
Hayden Griffiths	0.01%	10000	301		47
Haydn Porteous	2.08%	48	34		23
Heinrich Bruiners	0.16%	625	176		106
Hennie O'Kennedy	0.01%	10000	251		10
Jack Davidson	0.18%	556	51		31
Jaco Prinsloo	11.18%	8.9	15	4.80%	5	0.6	Bet365: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jaco Van Zyl	0.10%	1000	201		46
Jacques Blaauw	0.37%	270	71		69
Jacques De Villiers	0.14%	714	201		100
Jacques Van Der Merwe	0.01%	10000	301		14
Jacquin Hess	0.00%	10000	1501		100
Jaden Deltel	0.00%	10000	1251		60
James Mack	0.16%	625	151		53
Jaydon Galant	0.00%	10000			60
Jean Hugo	1.54%	65	46		10
Joe Sullivan	0.03%	3333	226		118
Jonathan Broomhead	2.47%	40	34		44
Jordan Burnand	0.39%	256	111		31
Jordan Duminy	0.00%	10000	1501		98
Karabo Mokoena	0.01%	10000	301		112
Kayle Wykes	0.00%	10000	1501		115
Keagan Thomas	0.02%	5000	201		14
Keanu Pestana	0.00%	10000	1001		69
Keegan Mclachlan	0.00%	10000	451		31
Keelan Africa	0.00%	10000	2501		89
Keenan Davidse	2.61%	38	46	0.40%	23	-0.4	Spreadex: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Khanya Mkhize	0.00%	10000	2001		121
Khaya Jika	0.00%	10000	2501		118
Kian Rose	0.00%	10000	601		89
Kyle Barker	0.49%	204	71		60
Kyle McClatchie	0.08%	1250	151		89
Leon Vorster	0.00%	10000	1001		89
Liam Grehan	0.01%	10000	401		44
Louis Albertse	3.63%	28	21		14
Louis De Jager	0.06%	1667	126		122
Luke Brown	4.82%	21	19		69
Lyle Pedro	0.00%	10000	1501		112
Lyle Rowe	1.94%	52	56	0.20%	82	-0.2	Spreadex: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
M.J. Viljoen	2.73%	37	29		31
Malcolm Mitchell	0.20%	500	86		98
Martin Leon	0.00%	10000	351		50
Martin Rohwer	0.18%	556	71		14
Martin Vorster	6.77%	15	17	0.90%	7	-0.9	Bet365: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Millar	0.00%	10000	751		100
Matthew Spacey	0.00%	10000	601		82
Merrick Bremner	0.00%	10000	2001		55
Morris Schiefner	0.00%	10000	276		82
Neil Schietekat	0.09%	1111	276		60
Nikhil Rama	1.26%	79	71		60
Njoroge Kibugu	0.01%	10000	176		51
Ockie Strydom	1.81%	55	34		30
Oliver Goldhill	0.01%	10000	111		57
Otto Van Buynder	0.00%	10000	326		69
Peter Karmis	0.14%	714	251		69
Pierre Viallaneix	1.48%	68	76	0.20%	31	-0.2	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pieter Moolman	3.56%	28	21		23
Quintin Wilsnach	0.01%	10000	401		106
Rhys West	0.02%	5000	451		69
Ricky Hendler	0.01%	10000	301		106
Rigardt Albertse	0.00%	10000	1001		60
Ruan De Smidt	0.00%	10000	1251		100
Ruan Korb	0.35%	286	71		23
Rupert Kaminski	0.12%	833	176		80
Ryan Van Der Klis	0.00%	10000	501		60
Ryan Van Velzen	3.63%	28	19		44
Samuel Simpson	1.59%	63	76	0.30%	1	14.0625	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sentanio Minnie	0.00%	10000	1001		89
Shaunak Rama	0.00%	10000	1501		100
Shaydon Johnson	0.00%	10000	3001		89
Simon Du Plooy	0.00%	10000	601		2
Stals Swart	0.53%	189	101		10
Steven Le Roux	0.00%	10000	2501		115
Stuart Krog	0.52%	192	111		82
Thanda Mavundla	0.00%	10000	1501		89
Thomas Spreadborough	0.00%	10000	751		23
Toto Thimba	0.01%	10000	351		57
Travis Ladner	0.00%	10000	1251		51
Travis Procter	0.00%	10000	501		5
Trevor Fisher, Jr.	0.31%	323	86		69
Tristan Leonard	0.02%	5000	251		120
Tristen Strydom	0.03%	3333	201		7
Tristin Galant	0.00%	10000	3001		60
Tumelo Molloyi	0.00%	10000	1501		115
Tyran Snyders	1.02%	98	41		47
Tyrone Ryan	0.20%	500	151		53
Vuyisani Makama	0.00%	10000	1501		106
Warwick Purchase	0.03%	3333	326		14
Wilco Nienaber	13.10%	7.6	13	5.90%	36	-5.9	Bet365: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wynand Dingle	0.19%	526	101		10
Xander Basson	0.05%	2000	251		69
Yurav Premlall	4.66%	21	23	0.30%	36	-0.3	Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Wilco Nienaber	13.10%	7.6	13	5.90%	36	-2	Bet365: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Jaco Prinsloo	11.18%	8.9	15	4.80%	5	0.25	Bet365: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Martin Vorster	6.77%	15	17	0.90%	7	-2	Bet365: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.