Simulation Results: Kit Kat Group ProAm

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Agustin Errazuriz	0.51%	196	126		7
Albert Venter	0.19%	526	501		48
Allen John	1.63%	61	46		119
Allister De Kock	0.00%	10000	2001		75
Altin Van Der Merwe	3.92%	26	21		7
Anthony Michael	0.50%	200	111		56
Astin Arthur	0.03%	3333	501		64
Benjamin Kedochim	0.16%	625	101		17
Benjamin Van Wyk	1.35%	74	81	0.10%	51	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandon Pieters	0.25%	400	351		102
Charl Barnard	0.09%	1111	251		6
Christiaan Burke	2.47%	40	17		5
Cole Stevens	2.25%	44	81	1.00%	38	-1	Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Conner Mackenzie	0.27%	370	351		81
Danie Van Niekerk	0.07%	1429	501		58
Daniel Cronje	1.78%	56	26		51
Dayne Moore	0.25%	400	351		93
Doug McGuigan	0.39%	256	251		38
Dylan Mostert	0.24%	417	301		111
Eric Wowor	0.11%	909	501		96
Estiaan Conradie	0.33%	303	76		11
Ethan Smith	0.27%	370	351		24
Franklin Manchest	0.25%	400	351		87
Gabriel Morgan	1.02%	98	101		38
Gerhard Pepler	1.39%	72	17		1
Graham Van Der Merwe	3.73%	27	19		2
Hayden Griffiths	0.29%	345	351		81
Haydn Porteous	2.20%	45	41		38
Heinrich Bruiners	0.84%	119	111		51
Hennie O'Kennedy	0.62%	161	126		14
Hennie Otto	0.80%	125	126		65
Herman Loubser	2.21%	45	34		96
J.J. Senekal	1.03%	97	61		65
Jack Davidson	0.89%	112	76		3
Jaco Prinsloo	7.42%	13	9		4
Jaco Van Zyl	0.58%	172	251	0.20%	81	-0.2	Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jacques Blaauw	0.83%	120	71		93
Jacques De Villiers	0.54%	185	201		18
Jacques Van Der Merwe	0.73%	137	201	0.20%	34	-0.2	Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jacquin Hess	0.09%	1111	1001		102
Jaden Deltel	0.02%	5000	501		48
James Mack	0.66%	152	81		21
Jason Roets	2.10%	48	67	0.60%	11	-0.6	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jean Hugo	2.43%	41	34		14
Joe Sullivan	0.09%	1111	351		46
Jordan Burnand	1.38%	72	86	0.20%	24	-0.2	Spreadex: 85/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Duminy	0.01%	10000	1001		109
Justin Walters	2.23%	45	26		24
Karabo Mokoena	0.06%	1667	501		102
Keagan Thomas	0.80%	125	111		62
Keanu Pestana	0.05%	2000	1001		87
Keelan Africa	0.01%	10000	1001		96
Keenan Davidse	3.19%	31	26		87
Kian Rose	0.13%	769	751		65
Kyle Barker	2.78%	36	17		38
Kyle De Beer	0.79%	127	81		58
Kyle McClatchie	0.33%	303	226		75
Liam Grehan	0.26%	385	301		81
Louis Albertse	2.56%	39	19		21
Luis Carrera	2.94%	34	23		56
Luke Brown	2.12%	47	31		32
Luke Jerling	0.46%	217	201		60
Lwazi Gqira	0.00%	10000	1501		118
Lyle Pedro	0.00%	10000	1001		117
Lyle Rowe	1.90%	53	36		34
Makhetha Mazibuko	0.03%	3333	1501		93
Malcolm Mitchell	0.58%	172	61		24
Mandla Dlamini	0.00%	10000	1001		102
Martin Leon	0.15%	667	161		87
Martin Rohwer	1.27%	79	51		65
Matt Millar	0.02%	5000	501		102
Matthew Spacey	0.22%	455	401		51
Merrick Bremner	0.01%	10000	501		87
Mitch Phigeland	0.01%	10000	1001		96
Musiwalo Nethunzwi	0.06%	1667	751		111
Neil Schietekat	0.70%	143	251	0.30%	81	-0.3	Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ockie Strydom	1.34%	75	29		7
Oliver Goldhill	0.15%	667	201		48
Omar Sandys	0.00%	10000	2001		119
Otto Van Buynder	0.25%	400	351		65
Pierre Pellegrin	0.03%	3333	751		18
Pierre Viallaneix	1.50%	67	56		24
Pieter Moolman	2.92%	34	17		7
Quintin Wilsnach	0.28%	357	251		11
Rhys Enoch	0.61%	164	126		114
Rhys West	0.23%	435	401		96
Ricky Hendler	0.17%	588	301		65
Rigardt Albertse	0.05%	2000	501		109
Robson Chinhoi	0.35%	286	176		65
Ronald Rugumayo	0.04%	2500	501		75
Rowan Lester	1.23%	81	91	0.10%	24	-0.1	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ruan De Smidt	0.11%	909	201		75
Ruan Korb	1.68%	60	34		65
Rupert Kaminski	0.94%	106	111		38
Ryan Van Der Klis	0.51%	196	351	0.20%	46	-0.2	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Samuel Simpson	3.36%	30	17		14
Sentanio Minnie	0.06%	1667	501		81
Shaydon Johnson	0.00%	10000	1501		116
Simon Du Plooy	0.65%	154	176	0.10%	34	-0.1	Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Stals Swart	0.90%	111	67		24
Stephen Ferreira	0.38%	263	301		38
Steven Le Roux	0.01%	10000	2001		114
Stuart Krog	0.90%	111	251	0.50%	75	-0.5	Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Thabiso Ngcobo	0.04%	2500	1001		61
Thanda Mavundla	0.03%	3333	1001		65
Thomas Spreadborough	0.35%	286	251		18
Tomas Gana	0.88%	114	91		24
Toto Thimba	0.30%	333	1001	0.20%	51	-0.2	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Travis Ladner	0.04%	2500	501		102
Travis Procter	0.29%	345	226		75
Trevor Fisher, Jr.	1.01%	99	81		38
Tristan Leonard	0.07%	1429	501		96
Tristen Strydom	0.67%	149	126		102
Tumelo Molloyi	0.00%	10000	1001		111
Tyran Snyders	1.89%	53	34		34
Tyrone Ryan	0.52%	192	226	0.10%	21	-0.1	Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Vuyisani Makama	0.07%	1429	1001		87
Warwick Purchase	0.59%	169	101		32
Wynand Dingle	1.16%	86	86		63
Xander Basson	0.66%	152	251	0.30%	65	-0.3	Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Cole Stevens	2.25%	44	81	1.00%	38	-2	Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Jason Roets	2.10%	48	67	0.60%	11	-2	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Stuart Krog	0.90%	111	251	0.50%	75	-2	Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.