Simulation Results: Joburg Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adrian Otaegui	0.81%	123	81		6
Alejandro Del Rey	1.29%	78	41		57
Alex Fitzpatrick	1.94%	52	36		6
Allen John	0.04%	2500	1001		18
Allister De Kock	0.00%	10000	1501		138
Altin Van Der Merwe	0.08%	1250	751		130
Andrew Johnston	0.23%	435	251		138
Andy Sullivan	1.83%	55	46		130
Angel Ayora	4.32%	23	14		18
Angel Hidalgo	0.30%	333	251		70
Antoine Rozner	2.24%	45	41		86
Austin Bautista	0.16%	625	401		75
Ben Schmidt	0.59%	169	101		36
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.31%	323	201		151
Bernd Wiesberger	0.80%	125	101		12
Bjorn Akesson	0.15%	667	751		86
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.84%	119	126		2
Brandon Stone	1.19%	84	51		27
Calum Hill	2.43%	41	31		75
Casey Jarvis	3.65%	27	15		2
Christiaan Burke	0.13%	769	201		45
Connor Syme	0.76%	132	141	0.10%	36	-0.1	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dan Bradbury	2.01%	50	41		1
Daniel Van Tonder	1.00%	100	41		6
Daniel Young	0.25%	400	226		138
Darius Van Driel	0.95%	105	141	0.20%	62	-0.2	Skybet: 80/1, 12pl, 1/5
Darren Fichardt	0.51%	196	276	0.10%	86	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 250/1, 7pl, 1/5
David Law	0.27%	370	201		28
David Ravetto	0.59%	169	111		5
Deon Germishuys	0.61%	164	161		99
Dylan Frittelli	1.30%	77	81	0.10%	62	-0.1	Skybet: 45/1, 12pl, 1/5
Dylan Mostert	0.01%	10000	2501		118
Dylan Naidoo	0.13%	769	601		146
Eddie Pepperell	0.78%	128	91		28
Estiaan Conradie	0.04%	2500	1001		52
Euan Walker	0.14%	714	501		99
Ewen Ferguson	2.46%	41	36		57
Filippo Celli	0.15%	667	251
Francesco Laporta	3.48%	29	23		111
Franklin Manchest	0.00%	10000	1001		111
Gerhard Pepler	0.05%	2000	1001		146
Graham Van Der Merwe	0.10%	1000	1001		99
Haydn Porteous	0.26%	385	151		75
Heinrich Bruiners	0.03%	3333	1501		86
Hennie Du Plessis	5.02%	20	15		4
Hennie O'Kennedy	0.01%	10000	1001		130
Hennie Otto	0.14%	714	376		118
Herman Loubser	0.15%	667	351		73
Hugo Townsend	0.27%	370	201		18
Ivan Cantero	0.19%	526	251		67
J.C. Ritchie	0.98%	102	61		111
J.J. Senekal	0.08%	1250	1001		67
Jack Hawksby	0.03%	3333	1001		52
Jack Senior	0.28%	357	201		124
Jaco Ahlers	0.45%	222	351	0.20%	130	-0.2	Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jaco Prinsloo	0.40%	250	226		28
Jacob Skov Olesen	2.14%	47	46		36
Jacques Blaauw	0.05%	2000	1001		99
Jacques Kruyswijk	1.73%	58	56		28
James Mack	0.04%	2500	1001		99
James Morrison	0.16%	625	401		57
Jamie Rutherford	0.08%	1250	651		45
Jason Roets	0.06%	1667	751		75
Jason Scrivener	0.92%	109	101		18
Jayden Schaper	6.29%	16	11		15
Jean Hugo	0.10%	1000	901		36
Jeong Weon Ko	0.13%	769	751		130
Joe Dean	0.49%	204	101		62
Joel Girrbach	0.38%	263	201		36
Johannes Veerman	0.64%	156	61
Jonathan Broomhead	0.20%	500	351		86
Joost Luiten	1.82%	55	67	0.30%	28	-0.3	Skybet: 45/1, 12pl, 1/5
Jordan Gumberg	0.24%	417	301		28
Jorge Campillo	1.53%	65	67		18
Joshua Berry	0.13%	769	401		111
Jovan Rebula	0.13%	769	501		72
Julien Guerrier	1.71%	58	41		52
Justin Harding	0.07%	1429	401		10
Karabo Mokoena	0.01%	10000	2001		153
Kayle Wykes	0.00%	10000	1001		130
Keelan Van Wyk	0.01%	10000	1501		124
Keenan Davidse	0.11%	909	601		99
Kieran Vincent	1.34%	75	76		36
Kota Kaneko	0.62%	161	91		45
Kyle Barker	0.16%	625	501		130
Kyle De Beer	0.02%	5000	2001		99
Kyle McClatchie	0.02%	5000	1001		86
Louis Albertse	0.39%	256	201		6
Louis De Jager	0.04%	2500	501
Luis Carrera	0.09%	1111	1001		99
Luke Brown	0.33%	303	226		18
Luke Jerling	0.04%	2500	1501		156
Lyle Rowe	0.10%	1000	601		138
M.J. Daffue	0.28%	357	301		86
M.J. Viljoen	0.19%	526	376		99
Makhetha Mazibuko	0.00%	10000	1501		151
Malcolm Mitchell	0.05%	2000	1001		118
Manuel Elvira	1.23%	81	71		86
Marcel Schneider	0.60%	167	151		111
Marcel Siem	0.64%	156	226	0.20%	18	-0.2	Betfred: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marcus Armitage	2.02%	50	46		45
Mark Maart	0.00%	10000	2001		153
Martin Couvra	1.48%	68	51		99
Martin Rohwer	0.05%	2000	1001		124
Martin Vorster	0.16%	625	601		74
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.20%	500	251		15
Michael Hollick	0.29%	345	151		75
Musiwalo Nethunzwi	0.00%	10000	1501		150
Neil Schietekat	0.03%	3333	5001		57
Nick Bachem	0.02%	5000	5001		111
Nikhil Rama	0.19%	526	501		138
Ockie Strydom	0.02%	5000	1001		12
Oliver Bekker	0.21%	476	251		86
Patrick Reed	4.66%	21	13		10
Pieter Moolman	0.79%	127	176	0.20%	70	-0.2	Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Quim Vidal	0.07%	1429	651		86
Rafa Cabrera Bello	1.07%	93	81		130
Renato Paratore	0.20%	500	251		124
Rhys Enoch	0.07%	1429	2001		155
Ricardo Gouveia	0.58%	172	101		75
Richard Sterne	0.60%	167	126		52
Richie Ramsay	0.58%	172	201	0.10%	62	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rikuya Hoshino	0.49%	204	111		86
Robin Williams	0.35%	286	226		69
Robson Chinhoi	0.02%	5000	5001		138
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.18%	556	151		86
Romain Langasque	1.60%	63	56		28
Ross Fisher	0.12%	833	601		15
Ruan Korb	0.03%	3333	1001		45
Rupert Kaminski	0.01%	10000	5001		75
Ryan Van Velzen	0.39%	256	351	0.10%	45	-0.1	BetMGM: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryggs Johnston	0.14%	714	501		18
Sam Bairstow	1.14%	88	76		62
Samuel Simpson	0.12%	833	501		86
Scott Jamieson	0.73%	137	101		111
Sean Crocker	0.45%	222	126		36
Sebastian Garcia	0.21%	476	251		18
Sebastian Soderberg	0.85%	118	111		75
Shaun Norris	0.81%	123	91		99
Shubhankar Sharma	0.20%	500	301		57
Stals Swart	0.04%	2500	1001		52
Stefan Wears-Taylor	0.01%	10000	1001		118
Stefano Mazzoli	0.33%	303	201		124
Stephen Ferreira	0.01%	10000	5001		138
Thanda Mavundla	0.00%	10000	2001		146
Thriston Lawrence	1.63%	61	29		118
Tobias Jonsson	0.33%	303	151		75
Todd Clements	1.36%	74	56		28
Toto Thimba	0.01%	10000	1001		146
Trevor Fisher, Jr.	0.08%	1250	751		138
Ugo Coussaud	1.14%	88	71		75
Warwick Purchase	0.00%	10000	1501		118
Wilco Nienaber	0.53%	189	81		36
Yurav Premlall	0.11%	909	751		75
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.25%	400	351		99
Zander Lombard	0.61%	164	91		45

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adrian Otaegui	0.91%	110	81		20
Alejandro Del Rey	1.18%	85	51		72
Alex Fitzpatrick	1.55%	65	51		20
Allen John	0.11%	909	301		72
Allister De Kock	0.00%	10000	451		120
Altin Van Der Merwe	0.19%	526	201		93
Andrew Johnston	0.39%	256	126		132
Andy Sullivan	1.54%	65	67		138
Angel Ayora	2.79%	36	31		1
Angel Hidalgo	0.51%	196	126		55
Antoine Rozner	1.81%	55	61	0.20%	120	-0.2	Unibet: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Bautista	0.36%	278	171		39
Ben Schmidt	0.72%	139	91		39
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.53%	189	126		138
Bernd Wiesberger	0.92%	109	101		93
Bjorn Akesson	0.31%	323	201		132
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.93%	108	91		12
Brandon Stone	1.17%	85	61		39
Calum Hill	1.96%	51	41		20
Casey Jarvis	2.50%	40	34		20
Christiaan Burke	0.28%	357	111		12
Connor Syme	0.91%	110	91		93
Dan Bradbury	1.60%	63	56		1
Daniel Van Tonder	0.95%	105	56		20
Daniel Young	0.43%	233	141		120
Darius Van Driel	1.00%	100	91		6
Darren Fichardt	0.66%	152	141		55
David Law	0.43%	233	111		20
David Ravetto	0.74%	135	91		12
Deon Germishuys	0.70%	143	101		120
Dylan Frittelli	1.21%	83	71		72
Dylan Mostert	0.08%	1250	451		109
Dylan Naidoo	0.27%	370	201		72
Eddie Pepperell	0.91%	110	81		72
Estiaan Conradie	0.13%	769	351		55
Euan Walker	0.28%	357	201		93
Ewen Ferguson	1.85%	54	56	0.10%	20	-0.1	Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Filippo Celli	0.34%	294	111
Francesco Laporta	2.42%	41	41		39
Franklin Manchest	0.04%	2500	501		109
Gerhard Pepler	0.17%	588	251		120
Graham Van Der Merwe	0.25%	400	251		93
Haydn Porteous	0.40%	250	101		39
Heinrich Bruiners	0.12%	833	451		93
Hennie Du Plessis	3.00%	33	31		12
Hennie O'Kennedy	0.05%	2000	351		39
Hennie Otto	0.30%	333	176		150
Herman Loubser	0.28%	357	171		72
Hugo Townsend	0.49%	204	101		6
Ivan Cantero	0.36%	278	151		93
J.C. Ritchie	1.02%	98	71		93
J.J. Senekal	0.24%	417	301		39
Jack Hawksby	0.10%	1000	351		12
Jack Senior	0.46%	217	126		138
Jaco Ahlers	0.60%	167	151		72
Jaco Prinsloo	0.59%	169	126		20
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.72%	58	56		6
Jacques Blaauw	0.11%	909	451		72
Jacques Kruyswijk	1.45%	69	61		39
James Mack	0.15%	667	401		109
James Morrison	0.31%	323	171		55
Jamie Rutherford	0.22%	455	181		6
Jason Roets	0.22%	455	251		93
Jason Scrivener	1.02%	98	81		93
Jayden Schaper	3.64%	27	26		1
Jean Hugo	0.25%	400	251		93
Jeong Weon Ko	0.28%	357	201		138
Joe Dean	0.59%	169	81		72
Joel Girrbach	0.53%	189	101		55
Johannes Veerman	0.78%	128	67
Jonathan Broomhead	0.37%	270	171		132
Joost Luiten	1.50%	67	71	0.10%	20	-0.1	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jordan Gumberg	0.44%	227	126		20
Jorge Campillo	1.35%	74	71		39
Joshua Berry	0.29%	345	171		72
Jovan Rebula	0.26%	385	201		55
Julien Guerrier	1.44%	69	56		72
Justin Harding	0.21%	476	201		55
Karabo Mokoena	0.07%	1429	451		155
Kayle Wykes	0.02%	5000	451		138
Keelan Van Wyk	0.07%	1429	451		93
Keenan Davidse	0.23%	435	181		93
Kieran Vincent	1.22%	82	71		6
Kota Kaneko	0.75%	133	81		72
Kyle Barker	0.30%	333	181		138
Kyle De Beer	0.14%	714	301		72
Kyle McClatchie	0.07%	1429	351		120
Louis Albertse	0.56%	179	111		39
Louis De Jager	0.13%	769	251
Luis Carrera	0.25%	400	301		109
Luke Brown	0.48%	208	101		12
Luke Jerling	0.15%	667	301		156
Lyle Rowe	0.25%	400	201		138
M.J. Daffue	0.44%	227	151		93
M.J. Viljoen	0.35%	286	171		72
Makhetha Mazibuko	0.01%	10000	451		120
Malcolm Mitchell	0.15%	667	251		109
Manuel Elvira	1.15%	87	76		138
Marcel Schneider	0.69%	145	101		93
Marcel Siem	0.73%	137	126		55
Marcus Armitage	1.69%	59	67	0.20%	20	-0.2	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mark Maart	0.00%	10000	501		132
Martin Couvra	1.38%	72	61		120
Martin Rohwer	0.15%	667	351		138
Martin Vorster	0.33%	303	181		39
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.39%	256	151		1
Michael Hollick	0.49%	204	91		72
Musiwalo Nethunzwi	0.02%	5000	451		120
Neil Schietekat	0.10%	1000	501		72
Nick Bachem	0.09%	1111	451		109
Nikhil Rama	0.39%	256	251		153
Ockie Strydom	0.09%	1111	251		20
Oliver Bekker	0.41%	244	151		72
Patrick Reed	2.87%	35	34		55
Pieter Moolman	0.87%	115	111		55
Quim Vidal	0.20%	500	201		109
Rafa Cabrera Bello	1.08%	93	71		72
Renato Paratore	0.39%	256	141		132
Rhys Enoch	0.16%	625	351		150
Ricardo Gouveia	0.77%	130	91		93
Richard Sterne	0.70%	143	101		39
Richie Ramsay	0.69%	145	111		20
Rikuya Hoshino	0.71%	141	81		72
Robin Williams	0.57%	175	121		39
Robson Chinhoi	0.10%	1000	501		138
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.31%	323	111		20
Romain Langasque	1.41%	71	67		20
Ross Fisher	0.29%	345	201		20
Ruan Korb	0.11%	909	301		39
Rupert Kaminski	0.09%	1111	501		39
Ryan Van Velzen	0.53%	189	151		20
Ryggs Johnston	0.32%	313	201		55
Sam Bairstow	1.14%	88	76		55
Samuel Simpson	0.28%	357	201		138
Scott Jamieson	0.78%	128	91		109
Sean Crocker	0.64%	156	91		12
Sebastian Garcia	0.37%	270	141		20
Sebastian Soderberg	1.02%	98	81		55
Shaun Norris	0.93%	108	81		109
Shubhankar Sharma	0.37%	270	151		12
Stals Swart	0.12%	833	351		72
Stefan Wears-Taylor	0.07%	1429	351		120
Stefano Mazzoli	0.50%	200	126		152
Stephen Ferreira	0.05%	2000	451		120
Thanda Mavundla	0.03%	3333	451		132
Thriston Lawrence	1.48%	68	46		138
Tobias Jonsson	0.48%	208	111		55
Todd Clements	1.26%	79	67		39
Toto Thimba	0.05%	2000	351		153
Trevor Fisher, Jr.	0.19%	526	201		120
Ugo Coussaud	1.14%	88	76		55
Warwick Purchase	0.03%	3333	351		109
Wilco Nienaber	0.69%	145	71		6
Yurav Premlall	0.27%	370	251		55
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.42%	238	171		109
Zander Lombard	0.66%	152	81		55

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Joost Luiten	1.82%	55	67	0.30%	28	-2	Skybet: 45/1, 12pl, 1/5
WIN: Darius Van Driel	0.95%	105	141	0.20%	62	-2	Skybet: 80/1, 12pl, 1/5
WIN: Pieter Moolman	0.79%	127	176	0.20%	70	-2	Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Antoine Rozner	1.81%	55	61	0.20%	120	-1	Unibet: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Marcus Armitage	1.69%	59	67	0.20%	20	-1	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Ewen Ferguson	1.85%	54	56	0.10%	20	-1	Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Joost Luiten	1.50%	67	71	0.10%	20	-1	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.