Simulation Results: Gary & Vivienne Player Challenge

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Allister De Kock 0.03% 3333 105
Altin Van Der Merwe 1.72% 58 5
Anthony Michael 0.22% 455 75
Austin Bautista 1.02% 98 8
Ben Van Wyk 0.41% 244 85
Brandon Meads 0.60% 167 92
C.J. Du Plessis 0.48% 208 43
Christiaan Burke 0.59% 169 25
Christian Kriek 0.03% 3333 47
Conner Mackenzie 0.25% 400 3
Danie Van Niekerk 0.13% 769 97
Daniel Van Tonder 7.29% 14 8
Dayne Moore 0.11% 909 51
Doug McGuigan 0.36% 278 27
Dylan Mostert 0.66% 152 51
Estiaan Conradie 0.60% 167 114
Ethan Smith 0.17% 588 37
Franklin Manchest 0.13% 769 75
Fredrik From 1.78% 56 13
George Coetzee 2.86% 35 49
Gerhard Pepler 1.68% 60 92
Graham Van Der Merwe 1.51% 66 3
Heinrich Bruiners 1.35% 74 13
Hennie O'Kennedy 0.88% 114 69
Hennie Otto 1.24% 81 51
Herman Loubser 0.76% 132 69
Hunter Epson 0.49% 204 85
J.J. Senekal 1.87% 53 97
Jack Hawksby 0.42% 238 8
Jaco Ahlers 3.65% 27 17
Jaco Prinsloo 3.50% 29 38
Jaco Van Zyl 0.70% 143 119
Jacques Blaauw 3.36% 30 38
Jacques De Villiers 0.45% 222 51
Jacquin Hess 0.03% 3333 31
Jake Redman 0.35% 286 13
James Mack 0.35% 286 31
Jason Broomhead 0.00% 10000 105
Jason Roets 0.59% 169 6
Jastice Mashego 0.01% 10000 85
Jean Hugo 3.55% 28 38
Jean-Paul Strydom 0.40% 250 51
Joe Knox 0.26% 385 85
Joe Long 0.39% 256 27
Jonathan Broomhead 4.05% 25 2
Jordan Burnand 0.58% 172 85
Jordan Duminy 0.17% 588 13
Karabo Mokoena 0.09% 1111 51
Keagan Thomas 0.11% 909 75
Keanu Pestana 0.00% 10000 114
Keegan Mclachlan 0.19% 526 75
Keelan Africa 0.00% 10000 59
Keelan Van Wyk 0.05% 2000 23
Keenan Davidse 2.26% 44 59
Kyle Barker 1.08% 93 97
Kyle De Beer 1.11% 90 51
Kyle McClatchie 0.39% 256 47
Liam Grehan 0.07% 1429 38
Luca Filippi 0.08% 1250 17
Luis Carrera 2.38% 42 23
Luke Brown 2.06% 49 59
Luke Jerling 1.14% 88 31
Lyle Pedro 0.03% 3333 111
Lyle Rowe 1.25% 80 17
M.J. Viljoen 2.57% 39 92
Makhetha Mazibuko 0.02% 5000 46
Malcolm Mitchell 1.64% 61 1
Marcus Taylor 0.01% 10000 109
Martin Rohwer 1.12% 89 17
Martin Vorster 3.20% 31 8
Matthew Spacey 0.14% 714 25
Merrick Bremner 0.01% 10000 97
Michael Hollick 2.27% 44 17
Musiwalo Nethunzwi 0.06% 1667 69
Neil Schietekat 1.21% 83 43
Nick Cunningham 0.01% 10000 97
Nikhil Rama 1.92% 52 75
Oliver Bekker 2.29% 44 31
Otto Van Buynder 0.23% 435 69
Paul Boshoff 0.06% 1667 117
Pierre Pellegrin 0.14% 714 85
Pierre Viallaneix 0.06% 1667 109
Pieter Moolman 3.80% 26 31
Quintin Wilsnach 0.31% 323 31
Rhys West 0.56% 179 59
Ricky Hendler 0.82% 122 17
Rowan Lester 0.24% 417 59
Ruan Conradie 0.67% 149 75
Ruan De Smidt 0.22% 455 75
Ruan Groenewald 0.06% 1667 113
Ruan Korb 0.65% 154 97
Rupert Kaminski 0.97% 103 92
Samuel Simpson 0.60% 167 6
Sean Cronje 0.05% 2000 85
Sentanio Minnie 0.02% 5000 97
Simon Du Plooy 0.31% 323 69
Slade Pickering 0.04% 2500 59
Slenda Sithebe 0.00% 10000 117
Stals Swart 0.69% 145 111
Stefan Wears-Taylor 0.97% 103 59
Stephen Ferreira 0.11% 909 59
Stuart Krog 0.38% 263 51
Thabiso Ngcobo 0.01% 10000 105
Thanda Mavundla 0.01% 10000 97
Thomas Spreadborough 0.13% 769 43
Toto Thimba 0.09% 1111 75
Trevor Fisher, Jr. 1.52% 66 105
Trevor Mahoney 0.03% 3333 69
Tristen Strydom 0.28% 357 75
Tristin Galant 0.00% 10000 119
Tumelo Molloyi 0.00% 10000 92
Tyran Snyders 0.50% 200 59
Tyrone Ryan 0.19% 526 75
Ulrich Van Den Berg 0.51% 196 59
Umar Davids 0.00% 10000 116
Warwick Purchase 0.32% 313 38
Werner Deyzel 0.15% 667 50
Wynand Dingle 0.35% 286 8
Xander Basson 0.19% 526 27
Yurav Premlall 3.03% 33 27

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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