Simulation Results: Fortress Invitational

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Albert Venter 0.00% 10000 751 81
Allen John 0.26% 385 81 43
Allister De Kock 0.00% 10000 2501 145
Altin Van Der Merwe 3.26% 31 26 97
Anthony Michael 0.11% 909 176 72
Ben Van Wyk 0.88% 114 101 8
Benjamin Follett-Smith 2.23% 45 51 0.30% 15 -0.3 Skybet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Meads 0.01% 10000 2001 72
C.J. Du Plessis 0.06% 1667 251 15
Callum Mowat 0.00% 10000 601 103
Christiaan Basson 0.01% 10000 601 90
Christiaan Burke 0.62% 161 71 15
Christian Kriek 0.00% 10000 1251 56
Conner Mackenzie 0.01% 10000 601 81
Danie Van Niekerk 0.00% 10000 751 111
Daniel Van Tonder 6.17% 16 11 5
Deon Germishuys 5.65% 18 26 1.90% 31 -1.9 Ladbrokes: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug McGuigan 0.01% 10000 751
Dylan Frittelli 7.45% 13 17 1.70% 7 -1.7 Spreadex: 16/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dylan Mostert 0.10% 1000 351 81
Eric Wowor 0.00% 10000 2501 122
Estiaan Conradie 0.56% 179 81 90
Ethan Smith 0.31% 323 201 56
Franklin Manchest 0.01% 10000 1001 72
George Coetzee 2.03% 49 21 81
Gerhard Pepler 0.88% 114 51 35
Graham Van Der Merwe 0.99% 101 101 15
Gregory Mckay 0.01% 10000 1001 56
Harry Konig 0.00% 10000 501 137
Hayden Griffiths 0.01% 10000 501 50
Haydn Porteous 0.58% 172 67 25
Heinrich Bruiners 0.53% 189 176 22
Hennie O'Kennedy 0.17% 588 301 56
Hennie Otto 0.23% 435 226 54
Herman Loubser 3.06% 33 26 35
J.J. Senekal 0.58% 172 111 49
Jack Hawksby 0.20% 500 151 103
Jaco Prinsloo 4.99% 20 23 0.70% 15 -0.7 Skybet: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jacques Blaauw 1.05% 95 51 81
Jacques De Villiers 0.22% 455 251 25
Jacquin Hess 0.00% 10000 2501 56
Jake Redman 0.06% 1667 251 142
James Mack 0.50% 200 81 33
James Pennington 0.00% 10000 1001 132
Jason Broomhead 0.00% 10000 1001 122
Jason Roets 0.65% 154 101 25
Jastice Mashego 0.00% 10000 2001 132
Jean Hugo 2.71% 37 67 1.20% 56 -1.2 Skybet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jean-Paul Strydom 0.19% 526 151 97
Joe Knox 0.02% 5000 501 114
Joe Long 0.24% 417 111 56
Jonathan Broomhead 3.02% 33 17 5
Jordan Burnand 0.08% 1250 301 56
Jordan Duminy 0.00% 10000 751 140
Justin Walters 1.70% 59 51 35
Karabo Mokoena 0.01% 10000 1001 41
Kayle Wykes 0.00% 10000 1001 126
Keagan Thomas 0.09% 1111 251 25
Keanu Pestana 0.00% 10000 2001 50
Keegan Mclachlan 0.01% 10000 501 43
Keelan Africa 0.00% 10000 2501 103
Keelan Van Wyk 0.03% 3333 301 35
Keenan Davidse 1.85% 54 46 43
Khanya Mkhize 0.00% 10000 1001 114
Kian Rose 0.25% 400 101 97
Kieron Van Wyk 0.85% 118 29 22
Kyle Barker 1.65% 61 36 2
Kyle De Beer 1.69% 59 41 9
Kyle McClatchie 0.15% 667 201 43
Leon Vorster 0.00% 10000 1001 72
Liam Grehan 0.01% 10000 751 90
Louis Albertse 2.28% 44 29 41
Luca Filippi 0.00% 10000 501 111
Luis Carrera 3.81% 26 23 2
Luke Brown 0.58% 172 71 31
Luke Jerling 0.24% 417 101 56
Luke Mayo 0.00% 10000 1501 126
Lyle Rowe 1.81% 55 61 0.20% 33 -0.2 Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
M.J. Viljoen 1.95% 51 46 72
Makhetha Mazibuko 0.00% 10000 2501 81
Malcolm Mitchell 0.21% 476 81 97
Mandla Dlamini 0.00% 10000 2501 144
Marcel Steyn Scholtz 0.00% 10000 1251 136
Marcus Taylor 0.00% 10000 351 114
Mark Maart 0.00% 10000 1001 137
Martin Vorster 4.16% 24 34 1.30% 9 -1.3 Bet365: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Spacey 0.04% 2500 301 50
Merrick Bremner 0.00% 10000 1001 142
Michael Hollick 1.81% 55 29 15
Mikkel Antonsen 0.02% 5000 601 35
Musiwalo Nethunzwi 0.00% 10000 1001 81
Neil Schietekat 0.29% 345 151 25
Nick Cunningham 0.00% 10000 2501 103
Nikhil Rama 1.56% 64 101 0.60% 56 -0.6 Skybet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nyasha Muyambo 0.00% 10000 2501 131
Otto Van Buynder 0.01% 10000 751 35
Paul Boshoff 0.06% 1667 201 122
Peter Karmis 0.12% 833 401 56
Pierre Viallaneix 0.04% 2500 251 43
Pieter Moolman 11.15% 9 10 1.30% 9 -1.3 PaddyPower: 9/1, 5pl, 1/4
Quintin Wilsnach 0.02% 5000 751 56
Rhys Enoch 0.59% 169 111 9
Rhys West 0.09% 1111 251 56
Ricky Hendler 0.23% 435 101 56
Robson Chinhoi 0.08% 1250 301 103
Ronald Rugumayo 0.00% 10000 601 111
Ross Wellington 0.00% 10000 1251 90
Rourke Van Der Spuy 0.03% 3333 601 103
Rowan Lester 0.17% 588 176 72
Ruan Conradie 0.43% 233 151 114
Ruan De Smidt 0.03% 3333 601 103
Ruan Groenewald 0.00% 10000 1251 126
Ruan Korb 0.10% 1000 181 56
Rupert Kaminski 0.79% 127 101 9
Ryan Van Der Klis 0.36% 278 151 43
Samuel Simpson 0.63% 159 81 22
Sentanio Minnie 0.00% 10000 1001 132
Shaunak Rama 0.00% 10000 1001 126
Simon Du Plooy 0.04% 2500 751 114
Siyanda Mwandla 0.00% 10000 2501 90
Slade Pickering 0.00% 10000 1501 114
Slenda Sithebe 0.00% 10000 2001 114
Stals Swart 0.08% 1250 401 72
Stephen Ferreira 0.06% 1667 751 25
Stuart Krog 0.29% 345 126 97
Tafadzwa Nyamukondiwa 0.00% 10000 1001 90
Thabiso Ngcobo 0.00% 10000 1001 126
Thanda Mavundla 0.00% 10000 1001 145
Thomas Spreadborough 0.01% 10000 1001 55
Tomas Gana 0.02% 5000 501 132
Toto Thimba 0.01% 10000 501 72
Trevor Fisher, Jr. 0.34% 294 141 15
Trevor Mahoney 0.00% 10000 1001 122
Tristen Strydom 0.04% 2500 401 103
Tristin Galant 0.00% 10000 2501 137
Tumelo Molloyi 0.00% 10000 2501 56
Tyran Snyders 1.88% 53 51 9
Tyron Davidowitz 0.00% 10000 1001 114
Tyrone Ryan 0.04% 2500 351 4
Ulrich Van Den Berg 0.02% 5000 501 53
Umar Davids 0.00% 10000 2501 140
Warwick Purchase 0.01% 10000 351 1
Werner Deyzel 0.00% 10000 1001 81
Wynand Dingle 0.23% 435 126 72
Xander Basson 0.25% 400 151 97
Yurav Premlall 4.01% 25 17 81
Zack Chegwidden 0.00% 10000 601 90

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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