Simulation Results: Vodacom Origins - Final

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Breen 0.00% 10000 451 95
Albert Venter 0.00% 10000 1001 3
Alexander Knappe 0.20% 500 111 49
Altin Van Der Merwe 1.83% 55 51 53
Barend Botha 1.73% 58 12 2
Ben Van Wyk 0.82% 122 61 39
Brandon Meads 0.00% 10000 2501 78
Bronwyn Doeg 0.00% 10000 2501 105
Bryce Easton 6.03% 17 19 0.80% 5 1.04 Spreadex: 18/1, 6pl, 1/5
C.J. Du Plessis 0.21% 476 151 27
Cara Gorlei 0.00% 10000 1501 88
Carter Rowe 0.00% 10000 401 66
Casey Jarvis 15.70% 6.4 8 3.70% 1 15.54 BetMGM: 7/1, 6pl, 1/5
Celestin Nsanzuwera 0.00% 10000 123
Christiaan Basson 0.00% 10000 801 31
Christiaan Burke 2.20% 45 36 3
Christian Kriek 0.00% 10000 1251 121
Conner Mackenzie 0.01% 10000 2001 78
Danie Van Niekerk 0.00% 10000 2001 23
David Amm 0.00% 10000 1251 88
Deon Germishuys 9.70% 10 17 4.10% 7 -4.1 Unibet: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug McGuigan 0.00% 10000 1501
Dylan Mostert 0.01% 10000 551 49
Eric Wowor 0.00% 10000 2501
Estiaan Conradie 0.48% 208 126 39
Franklin Manchest 0.00% 10000 1501 108
Gabrielle Venter 0.00% 10000 501 78
Gerhard Pepler 0.56% 179 91 56
Graham Van Der Merwe 0.66% 152 101 5
Gregory Mckay 0.00% 10000 801 102
Hayden Griffiths 0.02% 5000 401 88
Haydn Porteous 0.55% 182 61 45
Heinrich Bruiners 0.29% 345 151 45
Hennie O'Kennedy 0.04% 2500 451 60
Hennie Otto 0.10% 1000 226 66
Herman Loubser 2.20% 45 34 39
Hunter Epson 0.00% 10000 1251 60
Ivan Verster 0.01% 10000 401 11
J.J. Senekal 0.60% 167 161 31
Jaco Prinsloo 6.27% 16 176 5.70% 31 -5.7 Boyle Sports: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jacques Blaauw 1.10% 91 61 95
Jacques De Villiers 0.26% 385 111 12
Jacques Van Der Merwe 0.01% 10000 76 60
Jake Redman 0.00% 10000 501 95
James Mack 0.27% 370 121 27
James Pennington 0.00% 10000 2001 108
Jason Roets 0.31% 323 151 49
Jean Hugo 1.76% 57 101 0.80% 35 -0.8 Unibet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jean-Paul Strydom 0.10% 1000 301 55
Joe Knox 0.01% 10000 1001 66
Joe Long 0.23% 435 181 45
Joe Nawanga 0.00% 10000 1501 120
Jordan Burnand 0.10% 1000 276 12
Karabo Mokoena 0.01% 10000 351 102
Kayle Wykes 0.00% 10000 2501 78
Keagan Thomas 0.14% 714 201 78
Keanu Pestana 0.00% 10000 1001 66
Keegan Mclachlan 0.01% 10000 351 58
Keenan Davidse 1.42% 70 81 0.20% 7 -0.2 Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kim De Klerk 0.00% 10000 2001 125
Kyle Barker 1.89% 53 41 66
Kyle De Beer 0.94% 106 67 31
Kyle McClatchie 0.02% 5000 551 60
Leon Vorster 0.00% 10000 2001 114
Liam Grehan 0.01% 10000 1501 17
Lora Assad 0.00% 10000 2001 105
Louis Albertse 1.69% 59 61 0.10% 95 -0.1 Unibet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luca Filippi 0.00% 10000 401 117
Luis Carrera 5.78% 17 19 0.50% 78 -0.5 Unibet: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Brown 0.55% 182 76 27
Luke Jerling 0.49% 204 101 17
Lyle Rowe 1.56% 64 67 0.10% 17 -0.1 Coral: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
M.J. Viljoen 1.74% 57 34 39
Malcolm Mitchell 0.10% 1000 151 102
Marcel Steyn Scholtz 0.00% 10000 2001 114
Marcus Taylor 0.00% 10000 1001 88
Martin Vorster 1.97% 51 51 17
Matthew Spacey 0.04% 2500 301 88
Merrick Bremner 0.00% 10000 2001 114
Mikkel Antonsen 0.02% 5000 1501 108
Neil Schietekat 0.54% 185 101 14
Nick Cunningham 0.00% 10000 2501 123
Nikhil Rama 2.60% 38 46 0.40% 14 -0.4 Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nyasha Muyambo 0.00% 10000 2001 78
Otto Van Buynder 0.00% 10000 651 45
Paul Boshoff 0.00% 10000 451 95
Peter Karmis 0.14% 714 251 7
Pierre Pellegrin 0.00% 10000 2501 60
Pierre Viallaneix 0.30% 333 151 66
Pieter Moolman 10.21% 9.8 14 3.30% 23 -3.3 Unibet: 13/1, 5pl, 1/4
Quintin Wilsnach 0.02% 5000 801 95
Rhys West 0.04% 2500 401 7
Ricky Hendler 0.16% 625 176 60
Robson Chinhoi 0.02% 5000 1001 53
Ronald Rugumayo 0.00% 10000 651 56
Rourke Van Der Spuy 0.01% 10000 551 78
Rowan Lester 0.16% 625 176 23
Ruan Conradie 0.05% 2000 226 17
Ruan De Smidt 0.00% 10000 1001 118
Ruan Groenewald 0.00% 10000 1251 108
Ruan Korb 0.05% 2000 201 49
Rupert Kaminski 0.51% 196 141 59
Ryan Van Der Klis 0.10% 1000 251 88
Samuel Simpson 0.60% 167 81 66
Simon Du Plooy 0.03% 3333 801 66
Slade Pickering 0.00% 10000 2501 105
Stals Swart 0.18% 556 326 35
Stephen Ferreira 0.04% 2500 251 27
Steve Surry 0.00% 10000 501 66
Stuart Krog 0.32% 313 111 35
Tafadzwa Nyamukondiwa 0.00% 10000 2501 118
Thomas Spreadborough 0.00% 10000 501 17
Tomas Gana 0.02% 5000 601 39
Toto Thimba 0.00% 10000 1001 95
Travis Procter 0.00% 10000 201 108
Tristen Strydom 0.01% 10000 401 78
Tyran Snyders 0.54% 185 101 23
Tyron Davidowitz 0.00% 10000 2001 66
Tyrone Ryan 0.29% 345 141 66
Vuyisani Makama 0.00% 10000 1001 39
Warwick Purchase 0.20% 500 101 66
Werner Deyzel 0.00% 10000 2001 121
Wilco Nienaber 3.93% 25 21 14
Wynand Dingle 0.12% 833 301 35
Xander Basson 0.38% 263 181 88
Zack Chegwidden 0.00% 10000 1501 78
Zander Lombard 5.71% 18 8 108

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


© Copyright 1999-2025 Tour-Tips.com.
All rights reserved.

This Week's Updates