Simulation Results: Eswatini Challenge

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Albert Venter 0.12% 833 1251 57
Albert Zungu 0.00% 10000 131
Allen John 0.75% 133 71 4
Allister De Kock 0.13% 769 1251 0.10% 105 -0.1 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Altin Van Der Merwe 1.41% 71 51 37
Anthony Michael 0.54% 185 351 0.30% 57 -0.3 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Bautista 1.33% 75 41 19
Ben Van Wyk 0.47% 213 126 67
Brandon Stone 9.02% 11 10 25
Brandon-Jude Rennie 0.00% 10000 1251 90
C.J. Du Plessis 0.81% 123 251 0.40% 67 -0.4 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chang Sum Nam 0.00% 10000 129
Christiaan Basson 0.32% 313 251 64
Christiaan Burke 0.84% 119 91 75
Christian Kriek 0.07% 1429 751 49
Conner Mackenzie 0.44% 227 201 49
Danie Van Niekerk 0.38% 263 351 0.10% 97 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
David Meyers 0.24% 417 601 0.10% 55 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug McGuigan 0.71% 141 201 0.20% 55 -0.2 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dylan Mostert 0.57% 175 301 0.20% 119 -0.2 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Eric Wowor 0.15% 667 82
Estiaan Conradie 0.59% 169 151 37
Ethan Smith 0.76% 132 201 0.30% 109 -0.3 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Franklin Manchest 0.45% 222 351 0.20% 118 -0.2 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Fredrik From 1.40% 71 46 112
Gerhard Pepler 1.18% 85 29 66
Graham Van Der Merwe 1.38% 72 46 57
Gregory Mckay 0.24% 417 401 37
Hayden Griffiths 0.07% 1429 1001 8
Heinrich Bruiners 2.47% 40 71 1.10% 19 -1.1 PaddyPower: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hennie O'Kennedy 0.77% 130 176 0.20% 49 -0.2 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Herman Loubser 0.95% 105 81 2
J.J. Senekal 1.72% 58 41 30
Jabulani Mabaso 0.00% 10000 1251 119
Jabulani Vilakati 0.00% 10000 131
Jaco Ahlers 5.24% 19 13 37
Jaco Prinsloo 2.84% 35 26 8
Jacques Blaauw 2.41% 41 21 75
Jacques De Villiers 0.73% 137 101 90
Jacquin Hess 0.22% 455 351 90
Jake Redman 0.44% 227 151 30
James Mack 0.52% 192 176 30
James Pennington 0.36% 278 201 37
Jason Broomhead 0.01% 10000 501 101
Jason Roets 0.83% 120 151 0.20% 19 -0.2 Skybet: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jastice Mashego 0.03% 3333 1251 90
Jean Hugo 2.59% 39 36 12
Jean-Paul Strydom 0.85% 118 301 0.50% 25 -0.5 PaddyPower: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joe Knox 0.43% 233 301 0.10% 101 -0.1 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joe Long 0.78% 128 251 0.40% 14 -0.4 PaddyPower: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jonathan Broomhead 2.60% 38 11 30
Jordan Burnand 1.12% 89 81 64
Jordan Duminy 0.35% 286 226 37
Karabo Mokoena 0.27% 370 601 0.10% 82 -0.1 Spreadex: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Keagan Thomas 0.26% 385 351 37
Keanu Pestana 0.01% 10000 1501 37
Keegan Mclachlan 0.23% 435 201 112
Keelan Van Wyk 0.62% 161 351 0.30% 90 -0.3 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Keenan Davidse 1.95% 51 61 0.30% 6 0.6 PaddyPower: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kieran Vincent 1.96% 51 11 82
Kyle De Beer 1.26% 79 67 14
Kyle McClatchie 0.48% 208 251 0.10% 25 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Luca Filippi 0.57% 175 141 30
Luke Brown 1.42% 70 81 0.20% 105 -0.2 Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Luke Jerling 1.18% 85 51 19
Luke Mayo 0.15% 667 751 90
M.J. Viljoen 1.82% 55 29 75
Machawe Maziya 0.00% 10000 1251 125
Makhetha Mazibuko 0.06% 1667 2001 67
Mandla Dlamini 0.00% 10000 1501 82
Marcel Steyn Scholtz 0.33% 303 141 62
Marcus Taylor 0.04% 2500 751 97
Martin Rohwer 1.60% 63 34 30
Martin Vorster 2.44% 41 19 49
Matthew Spacey 0.38% 263 251 105
Michael Hollick 1.98% 51 26 1
Musiwalo Nethunzwi 0.17% 588 751 25
Nathan Koen 0.00% 10000 125
Nhlanhla Mtsetfwa 0.00% 10000 1251 129
Nicholus Vilakati 0.00% 10000 1501 127
Nick Cunningham 0.05% 2000 751 105
Nikhil Rama 0.90% 111 101 8
Oliver Bekker 2.30% 43 31 67
Otto Van Buynder 0.41% 244 401 0.20% 67 -0.2 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Boshoff 0.32% 313 226 4
Peter Karmis 0.72% 139 226 0.30% 14 -0.3 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Pierre Viallaneix 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 30 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pieter Moolman 2.56% 39 23 2
Quintin Wilsnach 0.35% 286 251 49
Raymond Mathonsi 0.00% 10000 1251 121
Rhys West 0.71% 141 176 0.10% 49 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ricky Hendler 1.01% 99 91 8
Robert Shiba 0.00% 10000 1251 133
Robson Chinhoi 0.30% 333 176 67
Rourke Van Der Spuy 0.96% 104 126 0.20% 37 -0.2 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rowan Lester 0.23% 435 351 14
Ruan Conradie 0.93% 108 101 112
Ruan De Smidt 0.45% 222 201 101
Ruan Groenewald 0.14% 714 1001 109
Ruan Korb 0.76% 132 126 75
Rupert Kaminski 0.96% 104 151 0.30% 19 -0.3 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryan Van Der Klis 0.37% 270 301 25
Samuel Simpson 1.06% 94 36 12
Sanele Myeni 0.00% 10000 1251 121
Sean Cronje 0.12% 833 301 101
Sentanio Minnie 0.21% 476 351 37
Sifiso Vilane 0.00% 10000 1501 127
Simon Du Plooy 0.71% 141 301 0.40% 82 -0.4 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Slade Pickering 0.14% 714 1251 0.10% 112 -0.1 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Slenda Sithebe 0.00% 10000 1251 121
Stals Swart 0.88% 114 151 0.20% 37 -0.2 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stefan Wears-Taylor 0.88% 114 51 97
Stephen Ferreira 0.38% 263 351 0.10% 82 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Stuart Krog 0.58% 172 301 0.20% 67 -0.2 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tafadzwa Nyamukondiwa 0.06% 1667 2001 82
Thabang Simon 0.03% 3333 2501 112
Thabiso Ngcobo 0.06% 1667 1251 67
Thanda Mavundla 0.17% 588 1251 0.10% 112 -0.1 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Spreadborough 0.12% 833 276 82
Tomas Gana 0.56% 179 201 0.10% 75 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Toto Thimba 0.22% 455 601 0.10% 19 -0.1 Spreadex: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tristen Strydom 0.28% 357 401 57
Tumelo Molloyi 0.01% 10000 1251 97
Tyran Snyders 0.54% 185 201 37
Tyron Davidowitz 0.44% 227 301 0.10% 90 -0.1 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tyrone Ryan 0.58% 172 126 57
Umar Davids 0.00% 10000 1501 121
Warwick Purchase 1.30% 77 67 62
Werner Deyzel 0.22% 455 301 75
Wynand Dingle 0.81% 123 67 75
Xander Basson 0.60% 167 176 6
Yurav Premlall 2.73% 37 19 14
Zack Chegwidden 0.00% 10000 401 109

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


© Copyright 1999-2025 Tour-Tips.com.
All rights reserved.

This Week's Updates