Simulation Results: Durban Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Wallin	0.28%	357	67		69
Albert Boneta	1.21%	83	61		57
Alex Goff	0.20%	500	91		9
Alexander Knappe	0.10%	1000	101		108
Alfie Plant	0.20%	500	81		16
Allen John	0.05%	2000	401		133
Allister De Kock	0.00%	10000			143
Altin Van Der Merwe	0.20%	500	161		69
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.00%	10000	1001		145
Anthony Michael	0.01%	10000	201		138
Anton Albers	0.21%	476	101		83
Asier Aguirre Izcue	0.00%	10000	301		88
Austin Bautista	1.51%	66	56		54
Ayden Knight	0.00%	10000	1501		143
Baard Skogen	1.64%	61	41		62
Benjamin Hebert	0.82%	122	46		29
Benjamin Rusch	0.08%	1250	151		118
Benjamin Van Wyk	0.08%	1250	151		88
Bjorn Akesson	0.59%	169	76		108
Borja Virto	0.86%	116	51		150
Brandon Stone	13.59%	7.4	11	4.90%	22	-4.9	Skybet: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryce Easton	2.54%	39	41	0.10%	69	-0.1	Skybet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
C.J. Du Plessis	0.03%	3333	401		104
Callan Barrow	0.21%	476	201		150
Callum Farr	0.76%	132	61		43
Calum Fyfe	0.64%	156	71		3
Charlie Forster	0.00%	10000	101		69
Christiaan Burke	0.91%	110	36		150
Christofer Blomstrand	0.11%	909	126		2
Christofer Rahm	0.00%	10000	501		108
Collin Adams	0.01%	10000	1001		37
Conor Purcell	1.23%	81	34		118
Daan Huizing	0.03%	3333	126		98
David Horsey	1.11%	90	36		9
Deon Germishuys	7.30%	14	17	1.50%	49	-1.5	Bet365: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Mostert	0.00%	10000	1251		43
Estiaan Conradie	0.07%	1429	161		108
Filip Mruzek	0.11%	909	151		118
Franklin Manchest	0.00%	10000			104
Gary Hurley	2.15%	47	81	0.90%	54	-0.9	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gerhard Pepler	0.09%	1111	126		108
Graham Van Der Merwe	0.28%	357	81		69
Haraldur Magnus	0.19%	526	141		69
Haydn Porteous	0.82%	122	61
Heinrich Bruiners	0.03%	3333	401		88
Hennie O'Kennedy	0.01%	10000	401		98
Hennie Otto	0.20%	500	67		9
Herman Loubser	0.92%	109	61		133
Hurly Long	0.14%	714	101		118
J.J. Senekal	0.50%	200	161		104
Jaco Ahlers	5.79%	17	26	2.00%	49	-2	Bet365: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jaco Prinsloo	8.09%	12	26	4.40%	108	-4.4	Bet365: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jaco Van Zyl	0.01%	10000	251		88
Jacob Worm Agerschou	0.00%	10000	56		118
Jacques Blaauw	0.11%	909	81		37
Jacques De Villiers	0.03%	3333	501		54
James Mack	0.05%	2000	401		29
James Meyer De Beco	0.51%	196	126		37
Jamie Rutherford	0.57%	175	91		29
Jannik De Bruyn	1.95%	51	41		29
Jason Roets	0.24%	417	91		98
Jastice Mashego	0.00%	10000			138
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.00%	10000	301		69
Jean Hugo	0.26%	385	67		22
Jean-Paul Strydom	0.00%	10000	161		98
Jeppe Kristian Andersen	0.32%	313	141
Joe Long	0.06%	1667	201		133
Joel Moscatel	0.16%	625	176		43
John Gough	0.02%	5000	251		3
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	0.08%	1250	161		69
Julian Perico	0.07%	1429	71		3
Julien Brun	0.84%	119	56		29
Julien Sale	0.57%	175	81		83
Kayle Wykes	0.00%	10000			118
Keagan Thomas	0.01%	10000	201		118
Keegan Mclachlan	0.00%	10000	1501		137
Keelan Van Wyk	0.00%	10000	1501		69
Keenan Davidse	0.28%	357	111		16
Kieron Van Wyk	2.27%	44	41		22
Kristian Hjort Bressum	0.00%	10000	251		108
Kyle Barker	0.58%	172	56		43
Kyle De Beer	0.15%	667	226		150
Kyle McClatchie	0.02%	5000	1001		88
Lars Van Der Vight	0.02%	5000	101		69
Lars Van Meijel	0.87%	115	61		9
Liam Grehan	0.00%	10000	1251		108
Liam Johnston	0.01%	10000			129
Liam Nolan	0.35%	286	67		49
Lorenzo Scalise	1.21%	83	71		16
Louis Albertse	1.44%	69	61		9
Lucas Vacarisas	0.30%	333	161		98
Luis Carrera	0.24%	417	101		68
Luke Brown	1.24%	81	36		3
Luke Jerling	0.07%	1429	251		37
Lyle Rowe	0.33%	303	141		22
Makhetha Mazibuko	0.00%	10000			118
Malcolm Mitchell	0.02%	5000	301		29
Marc Warren	0.67%	149	51		83
Martin Rohwer	0.30%	333	226		133
Martin Vorster	1.12%	89	46		16
Matthew Southgate	0.80%	125	126		20
Matthew Spacey	0.00%	10000	1251		146
Matthias Schwab	0.09%	1111	176		43
Matthis Besard	0.83%	120	67		43
Max Kennedy	1.17%	85	51		69
Maxence Giboudot	1.16%	86	51		88
Neil Schietekat	0.04%	2500	251		129
Nick Bachem	0.04%	2500	401		66
Nick Carlson	0.40%	250	81		69
Nikhil Rama	0.37%	270	71		26
Oliver Bekker	0.19%	526	41		1
Otto Van Buynder	0.01%	10000	1251		148
Pablo Ereno Perez	2.63%	38	34		3
Palmer Jackson	0.05%	2000	201		138
Pedro Figueiredo	0.22%	455	141		3
Per Langfors	0.95%	105	51		83
Philipp Katich	0.03%	3333	111		29
Pierre Pineau	0.02%	5000	301		118
Pierre Viallaneix	0.16%	625			69
Pieter Moolman	5.65%	18	29	2.30%	20	-2.3	Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rhys Enoch	0.09%	1111	126		63
Rhys West	0.00%	10000	401		57
Robin Petersson	0.05%	2000	226		63
Robin Sciot-Siegrist	0.82%	122	61		118
Robson Chinhoi	0.00%	10000	1001		37
Ronan Kleu	0.28%	357	176		69
Rory Franssen	0.00%	10000	401		138
Ruan Korb	0.04%	2500	226		49
Rupert Kaminski	0.02%	5000	251		98
Ryan Lumsden	2.05%	49	41		129
Ryan Van Der Klis	0.01%	10000	1251		146
Sam Hutsby	0.58%	172	101		129
Sam Locke	0.04%	2500	276		66
Samuel Simpson	0.31%	323	111		108
Santiago Tarrio	0.64%	156	46		9
Sebastian Friedrichsen	0.12%	833	176		57
Stals Swart	0.03%	3333	1001		88
Stefan Wears-Taylor	0.02%	5000	501		83
Stephen Ferreira	0.01%	10000	501		88
Steven Brown	0.30%	333	176		150
Stuart Krog	0.08%	1250	201		26
Tadeas Tetak	0.06%	1667	126		108
Thanda Mavundla	0.00%	10000			65
Tobias Eden	0.30%	333	91		57
Tom Lewis	0.44%	227	61		29
Trevor Fisher, Jr.	0.21%	476	126		49
Tristin Galant	0.00%	10000			149
Tyran Snyders	0.16%	625	161		138
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen	0.02%	5000	201		88
Victor Pastor	0.20%	500	101		37
Warwick Purchase	0.00%	10000	1001		104
Wilco Nienaber	3.18%	31	17		57
Will Enefer	1.93%	52	41		26
Wouter De Vries	0.01%	10000	401		9
Wynand Dingle	0.04%	2500	501		88
Zachary Chegwidden	0.00%	10000	1001		118

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Wallin	0.58%	172	61		86
Albert Boneta	1.09%	92	91		21
Alex Goff	0.52%	192	101		44
Alexander Knappe	0.52%	192	81		110
Alfie Plant	0.47%	213	91		11
Allen John	0.32%	313	151		123
Allister De Kock	0.01%	10000			151
Altin Van Der Merwe	0.66%	152	91		68
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.12%	833	251		133
Anthony Michael	0.24%	417	126		142
Anton Albers	0.69%	145	81		34
Asier Aguirre Izcue	0.06%	1667	151		133
Austin Bautista	1.47%	68	56		3
Ayden Knight	0.02%	5000	351		142
Baard Skogen	1.22%	82	61		44
Benjamin Hebert	1.22%	82	61		34
Benjamin Rusch	0.40%	250	126		133
Benjamin Van Wyk	0.44%	227	111		44
Bjorn Akesson	0.92%	109	71		68
Borja Virto	1.08%	93	71		155
Brandon Stone	4.09%	24	23		44
Bryce Easton	1.92%	52	46		86
C.J. Du Plessis	0.26%	385	201		44
Callan Barrow	0.66%	152	111		68
Callum Farr	0.91%	110	91		86
Calum Fyfe	0.80%	125	81		44
Charlie Forster	0.00%	10000	76		68
Christiaan Burke	1.20%	83	46		110
Christofer Blomstrand	0.51%	196	86		44
Christofer Rahm	0.16%	625	191		142
Collin Adams	0.15%	667	251		44
Conor Purcell	1.03%	97	71		68
Daan Huizing	0.28%	357	126		86
David Horsey	0.97%	103	71		34
Deon Germishuys	2.92%	34	34		68
Dylan Mostert	0.09%	1111	301		21
Estiaan Conradie	0.46%	217	91		123
Filip Mruzek	0.52%	192	101		153
Franklin Manchest	0.11%	909			44
Gary Hurley	1.68%	60	71	0.30%	44	-0.3	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gerhard Pepler	0.38%	263	111		86
Graham Van Der Merwe	0.60%	167	126		44
Haraldur Magnus	0.59%	169	101		123
Heinrich Bruiners	0.26%	385	251		68
Hennie O'Kennedy	0.18%	556	151		68
Hennie Otto	0.50%	200	111		44
Herman Loubser	1.12%	89	71		86
Hurly Long	0.58%	172	86		133
J.J. Senekal	0.95%	105	101		148
Jaco Ahlers	2.14%	47	51	0.20%	86	-0.2	Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jaco Prinsloo	3.16%	32	41	0.70%	44	-0.7	Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jaco Van Zyl	0.11%	909	201		86
Jacob Worm Agerschou	0.12%	833	56		110
Jacques Blaauw	0.39%	256	101		11
Jacques De Villiers	0.33%	303	191		110
James Mack	0.28%	357	201		11
James Meyer De Beco	0.92%	109	81		68
Jamie Rutherford	0.81%	123	101		86
Jannik De Bruyn	1.64%	61	51		44
Jason Roets	0.57%	175	101		21
Jastice Mashego	0.00%	10000			142
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.14%	714	151		68
Jean Hugo	0.73%	137	71		11
Jean-Paul Strydom	0.17%	588	151		86
Jeppe Kristian Andersen	0.62%	161	91
Joe Long	0.31%	323	151		148
Joel Moscatel	0.60%	167	111		34
John Gough	0.22%	455	126		68
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	0.29%	345	126		21
Julian Perico	0.45%	222	91		4
Julien Brun	1.15%	87	71		21
Julien Sale	0.94%	106	81		110
Kayle Wykes	0.03%	3333			123
Keagan Thomas	0.18%	556	151		86
Keegan Mclachlan	0.11%	909	301		133
Keelan Van Wyk	0.07%	1429	301		110
Keenan Davidse	0.57%	175	126		44
Kieron Van Wyk	1.38%	72	71		2
Kristian Hjort Bressum	0.00%	10000	111		110
Kyle Barker	0.97%	103	67		21
Kyle De Beer	0.47%	213	111		110
Kyle McClatchie	0.26%	385	251		86
Lars Van Der Vight	0.24%	417	86		86
Lars Van Meijel	0.91%	110	86		86
Liam Grehan	0.09%	1111	301		86
Liam Johnston	0.18%	556			86
Liam Nolan	0.85%	118	71		86
Lorenzo Scalise	1.09%	92	91		4
Louis Albertse	1.17%	85	86		21
Lucas Vacarisas	0.68%	147	141		110
Luis Carrera	0.69%	145	76		21
Luke Brown	1.38%	72	61		4
Luke Jerling	0.34%	294	151		86
Lyle Rowe	0.64%	156	151		68
Makhetha Mazibuko	0.02%	5000			133
Malcolm Mitchell	0.22%	455	151		11
Marc Warren	1.04%	96	51		86
Martin Rohwer	0.77%	130	111		123
Martin Vorster	1.00%	100	71		21
Matthew Southgate	1.13%	88	81		44
Matthew Spacey	0.12%	833	301		68
Matthias Schwab	0.52%	192	111		44
Matthis Besard	0.85%	118	91		44
Max Kennedy	1.32%	76	61		21
Maxence Giboudot	1.40%	71	61		68
Neil Schietekat	0.38%	263	141		86
Nick Bachem	0.25%	400	151		44
Nick Carlson	0.65%	154	101		68
Nikhil Rama	0.67%	149	81		4
Oliver Bekker	0.54%	185	67		4
Otto Van Buynder	0.23%	435	301		110
Pablo Ereno Perez	1.87%	53	51		1
Palmer Jackson	0.32%	313	151		148
Pedro Figueiredo	0.51%	196	91		4
Per Langfors	0.97%	103	101		34
Philipp Katich	0.34%	294	91		68
Pierre Pineau	0.25%	400	151		142
Pierre Viallaneix	0.60%	167			44
Pieter Moolman	2.17%	46	51	0.20%	10	-0.2	Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rhys Enoch	0.39%	256	111		11
Rhys West	0.12%	833	226		34
Robin Petersson	0.39%	256	201		34
Robin Sciot-Siegrist	0.90%	111	81		151
Robson Chinhoi	0.11%	909	251		44
Ronan Kleu	0.70%	143	91		86
Rory Franssen	0.13%	769	176		123
Ruan Korb	0.38%	263	151		44
Rupert Kaminski	0.21%	476	151		86
Ryan Lumsden	1.40%	71	67		123
Ryan Van Der Klis	0.21%	476	301		154
Sam Hutsby	0.77%	130	111		110
Sam Locke	0.27%	370	151		21
Samuel Simpson	0.61%	164	111		110
Santiago Tarrio	0.92%	109	51		11
Sebastian Friedrichsen	0.39%	256	126		86
Stals Swart	0.31%	323	251		133
Stefan Wears-Taylor	0.20%	500	191		21
Stephen Ferreira	0.11%	909	226		86
Steven Brown	0.71%	141	111		133
Stuart Krog	0.41%	244	176		11
Tadeas Tetak	0.40%	250	101		44
Thanda Mavundla	0.03%	3333			44
Tobias Eden	0.62%	161	111		34
Tom Lewis	0.87%	115	67		68
Trevor Fisher, Jr.	0.50%	200	81		68
Tristin Galant	0.00%	10000			142
Tyran Snyders	0.64%	156	91		133
Tyrone Ryan	0.22%	455			123
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen	0.22%	455	126		110
Victor Pastor	0.55%	182	126		11
Warwick Purchase	0.14%	714	251		123
Wilco Nienaber	1.67%	60	31		11
Will Enefer	1.62%	62	56		34
Wouter De Vries	0.17%	588	151		21
Wynand Dingle	0.31%	323	191		34
Zachary Chegwidden	0.02%	5000	351		123

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Brandon Stone	13.59%	7.4	11	4.90%	22	-2	Skybet: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Jaco Prinsloo	8.09%	12	26	4.40%	108	-2	Bet365: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Pieter Moolman	5.65%	18	29	2.30%	20	-2	Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jaco Prinsloo	3.16%	32	41	0.70%	44	-1	Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Gary Hurley	1.68%	60	71	0.30%	44	-1	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jaco Ahlers	2.14%	47	51	0.20%	86	-1	Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Pieter Moolman	2.17%	46	51	0.20%	11	-1	Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.