Simulation Results: Vodacom Origins - Devonvale

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Allen John 1.42% 70 41 36
Austin Bautista 2.68% 37 23 7
Brandon Meads 0.27% 370 1251 0.20% 95 -0.2 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bronwyn Doeg 0.00% 10000 1501 128
C.J. Du Plessis 0.80% 125 201 0.30% 44 -0.3 Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cara Ford 0.01% 10000 1001 112
Cara Gorlei 0.05% 2000 1001 112
Charl Barnard 0.01% 10000 501 59
Christiaan Basson 0.19% 526 501 24
Christiaan Burke 1.66% 60 51 97
Christian Kriek 0.14% 714 501 71
Conner Mackenzie 0.43% 233 401 0.20% 77 -0.2 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug McGuigan 0.40% 250 401 0.20% 116 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dwayne Basson 0.00% 10000 1501 58
Dylan Mostert 0.71% 141 351 0.40% 56 -0.4 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Estiaan Conradie 1.43% 70 61 36
Franklin Manchest 0.30% 333 1001 0.20% 77 -0.2 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
George Coetzee 2.31% 43 29 2
Gerhard Pepler 2.93% 34 23 101
Gregory Mckay 0.24% 417 501 77
Hayden Garcia 0.01% 10000 1001 123
Hayden Griffiths 0.34% 294 201 112
Heinrich Bruiners 1.64% 61 101 0.70% 36 -0.7 Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hennie O'Kennedy 1.01% 99 151 0.40% 50 -0.4 William Hill: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hennie Otto 0.55% 182 111 46
Herman Loubser 2.64% 38 23 7
Jack Hawksby 0.57% 175 251 0.20% 14 -0.2 William Hill: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jaco Prinsloo 5.27% 19 17 7
Jacques Blaauw 1.77% 56 41 7
Jacques De Villiers 1.09% 92 126 0.30% 71 -0.3 Boyle Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jacques Kruyswijk 7.39% 14 8 1
Jake Redman 0.72% 139 151 0.10% 71 -0.1 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
James Mack 0.76% 132 176 0.20% 7 -0.2 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
James Pennington 0.19% 526 351 59
Jason Broomhead 0.13% 769 1251 0.10% 77 -0.1 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Roets 1.39% 72 101 0.40% 24 -0.4 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joe Knox 0.32% 313 401 0.10% 77 -0.1 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joe Long 1.57% 64 61 54
Jordan Burnand 0.52% 192 301 0.20% 46 -0.2 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jordan Duminy 0.31% 323 501 0.10% 101 -0.1 BetMGM: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Karabo Mokoena 0.15% 667 2001 0.10% 116 -0.1 Bet365: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Keanu Pestana 0.04% 2500 1501 97
Keegan Mclachlan 0.29% 345 501 0.10% 36 -0.1 BetMGM: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Keelan Africa 0.01% 10000 2501 116
Keenan Davidse 2.29% 44 51 0.30% 14 -0.3 Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Khaya Jika 0.00% 10000 1501 101
Kian Rose 0.43% 233 176 14
Kyle Barker 3.82% 26 23 24
Kyle De Beer 2.01% 50 56 0.20% 89 -0.2 BetMGM: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kyle McClatchie 0.93% 108 131 0.20% 59 -0.2 Unibet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Leontine Petit 0.00% 10000 1501 129
Liam Grehan 0.30% 333 501 0.10% 101 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Louis Albertse 4.07% 25 19 14
Luis Carrera 3.10% 32 23 36
Luke Brown 1.68% 60 46 77
Luke Jerling 1.68% 60 46 101
Luke Mayo 0.12% 833 1001 101
Lyle Rowe 2.97% 34 34 6
M.S. Calitz 0.00% 10000 123
Matthew Dennis 0.00% 10000 1001 120
Mikkel Antonsen 0.46% 217 501 0.30% 24 -0.3 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nick Cunningham 0.02% 5000 2501 97
Nyasha Muyambo 0.01% 10000 2501 77
Oliver Bekker 1.95% 51 91 0.90% 59 -0.9 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Boshoff 0.33% 303 226 7
Peter Karmis 0.77% 130 276 0.40% 77 -0.4 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pieter Moolman 7.16% 14 9 7
Richard Kruger 0.00% 10000 2001 116
Ricky Hendler 1.50% 67 81 0.30% 24 -0.3 Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Robson Chinhoi 0.54% 185 301 0.20% 59 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rowan Lester 0.92% 109 151 0.30% 24 -0.3 Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ruan Conradie 1.29% 78 126 0.50% 24 -0.5 BetMGM: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ruan De Smidt 0.54% 185 251 0.10% 77 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ruan Groenewald 0.09% 1111 1001 97
Ruan Korb 1.08% 93 126 0.30% 71 -0.3 Boyle Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rupert Kaminski 1.26% 79 201 0.80% 14 -0.8 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sean Cronje 0.16% 625 2001 0.10% 89 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sentanio Minnie 0.10% 1000 1001 43
Slade Pickering 0.14% 714 1251 0.10% 71 -0.1 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephen Ferreira 0.26% 385 1001 0.20% 14 -0.2 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stian Oosthuizen 0.00% 10000 1001 126
Stuart Krog 0.94% 106 201 0.40% 4 7.8 Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tafadzwa Nyamukondiwa 0.12% 833 501 109
Tara Griebenow 0.01% 10000 1001 131
Terence Coutinho 0.00% 10000 2001 126
Tomas Gana 0.59% 169 351 0.30% 77 -0.3 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Trevor Mahoney 0.09% 1111 1001 59
Tristin Galant 0.00% 10000 2001 95
Tyron Davidowitz 0.30% 333 601 0.10% 125 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Umar Davids 0.00% 10000 2501 120
Warwick Purchase 0.44% 227 201 112
Wynand Dingle 1.85% 54 81 0.60% 101 -0.6 Boyle Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Xander Basson 1.13% 88 151 0.50% 14 -0.5 BetMGM: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yurav Premlall 3.94% 25 16 24
Zack Chegwidden 0.01% 10000 2001 77
Zander Lombard 4.00% 25 29 0.60% 3 1.8 PaddyPower: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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