Simulation Results: Tournament of Champions

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Altin Van Der Merwe 1.78% 56 41 13
Bryan Newman 0.27% 370 201 26
Cara Gorlei 0.03% 3333 301 21
Daniel Van Tonder 10.48% 9.5 7 2
Danielle Du Toit 0.17% 588 501 28
Doug McGuigan 0.79% 127 251 0.40% 25 -0.4 Spreadex: 250/1, 4pl, 1/4
Gabrielle Venter 0.44% 227 401 0.20% 33 -0.2 Bet365: 400/1, 4pl, 1/4
George Coetzee 5.04% 20 13 20
Gia Raad 0.00% 10000 401 33
Jaco Ahlers 5.42% 18 19 0.20% 17 -0.2 Spreadex: 18/1, 4pl, 1/4
Jacques Blaauw 4.41% 23 21 5
Jake Roos 0.36% 278 151 31
Jbe Kruger 2.12% 47 81 0.90% 10 -0.9 Spreadex: 80/1, 4pl, 1/4
Jean Hugo 5.40% 19 23 1.10% 8 -1.1 QuinnBet: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jonathan Broomhead 8.45% 12 9.5 4
Jovan Rebula 4.80% 21 19 29
Keenan Davidse 2.76% 36 41 0.30% 13 -0.3 Skybet: 40/1, 4pl, 1/4
Kieran Vincent 7.96% 13 9 1
Logan Leisher 0.01% 10000 32
Louis Albertse 2.32% 43 34 13
Luis Carrera 5.15% 19 7.5 10
Luke Brown 2.53% 40 51 0.60% 13 -0.6 Skybet: 50/1, 4pl, 1/4
Luke Jerling 1.56% 64 111 0.70% 10 -0.7 QuinnBet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
M.J. Viljoen 3.33% 30 29 5
Martin Vorster 5.58% 18 13 17
Michael Hollick 2.28% 44 29 7
Nadia Van Der Westhuizen 0.00% 10000 501 29
Nikhil Rama 3.96% 25 21 21
Nobuhle Dlamini 0.55% 182 1001 0.50% 23 -0.5 QuinnBet: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pieter Moolman 4.50% 22 29 1.10% 3 2.8875 QuinnBet: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ruan Korb 0.85% 118 126 0.10% 8 -0.1 Spreadex: 125/1, 4pl, 1/4
Tandi McCallum 0.00% 10000 1001 19
Warwick Purchase 0.46% 217 176 23
Yurav Premlall 6.23% 16 13 26

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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