Simulation Results: Cell C Challenge

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Albert Venter	0.02%	5000	351		87
Allen John	0.07%	1429	151		87
Allister De Kock	0.00%	10000	2001		87
Altin Van Der Merwe	0.76%	132	81		41
Anthony Michael	0.05%	2000	126		56
Benjamin Follett-Smith	1.81%	55	41		1
Benjamin Van Wyk	0.73%	137	67		33
Brandon Meads	0.00%	10000	2001		70
C.J. Du Plessis	0.16%	625	81		80
Callum Mowat	0.00%	10000	1501		56
Christiaan Burke	3.88%	26	17		56
Christian Kriek	0.00%	10000	1501		28
Conner Mackenzie	0.01%	10000	2001		41
Danie Van Niekerk	0.00%	10000	1001		70
Daniel Cronje	0.64%	156	51		99
David Amm	0.00%	10000	1001		50
Deon Germishuys	10.42%	9.6	14	3.50%	23	-3.5	Spreadex: 13/1, 5pl, 1/5
Doug McGuigan	0.00%	10000	1501		95
Dylan Mostert	0.02%	5000	251		70
Eric Wowor	0.00%	10000	501		125
Estiaan Conradie	0.05%	2000	126		6
Ethan Smith	0.01%	10000	251		70
Evance Vukeya	0.00%	10000	1501		135
Franklin Manchest	0.00%	10000	1001		28
Gerhard Pepler	0.13%	769	151		47
Graham Van Der Merwe	0.37%	270	61		33
Gregory Mckay	0.00%	10000	1001		136
Hayden Griffiths	0.01%	10000	351		17
Haydn Porteous	1.73%	58	36		2
Heinrich Bruiners	0.34%	294	71		56
Hennie O'Kennedy	0.06%	1667	201		87
Hennie Otto	0.06%	1667	201		115
Herman Loubser	3.09%	32	29		8
J.J. Senekal	0.80%	125	86		56
Jack Hawksby	0.07%	1429	276		25
Jaco Ahlers	8.95%	11	13	1.40%	12	-1.4	BetMGM: 12/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jaco Prinsloo	7.69%	13	29	4.40%	12	-4.4	Skybet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jacques Blaauw	0.64%	156	67		109
Jacques De Villiers	0.11%	909	151		112
Jacques Van Der Merwe	0.01%	10000	126		118
Jacquin Hess	0.00%	10000	501		56
James Mack	0.07%	1429	201		28
James Pennington	0.00%	10000	1501		122
Jason Broomhead	0.00%	10000	2501		70
Jason Roets	0.30%	333	126		25
Jbe Kruger	0.20%	500	126		99
Jean Hugo	1.29%	78	81	0.10%	112	-0.1	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jean-Paul Strydom	0.06%	1667	201		54
Joe Knox	0.00%	10000	1001		33
Joe Long	0.52%	192	141		12
John Bele	0.00%	10000	2001		130
Jonathan Broomhead	4.11%	24	15		54
Jordan Burnand	0.41%	244	101		33
Jordan Duminy	0.00%	10000	1251		122
Justin Walters	3.44%	29	51	1.50%	17	-1.5	Skybet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/5
Karabo Mokoena	0.03%	3333	251		17
Kayle Wykes	0.00%	10000	2501		56
Keagan Thomas	0.07%	1429	101		17
Keanu Pestana	0.00%	10000	1001		115
Keegan Mclachlan	0.00%	10000	751		70
Keelan Africa	0.00%	10000	2001		127
Keelan Van Wyk	0.00%	10000	251		95
Keenan Davidse	1.10%	91	51		56
Khaya Jika	0.00%	10000	2501		127
Kian Rose	0.00%	10000	251		70
Kieron Van Wyk	1.87%	53	34		3
Kyle Barker	1.28%	78	81		99
Kyle De Beer	0.26%	385	81		47
Kyle McClatchie	0.04%	2500	501		80
Leon Vorster	0.00%	10000	2001		125
Liam Grehan	0.10%	1000	251		115
Louis Albertse	1.71%	58	101	0.70%	33	-0.7	Skybet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
Luke Brown	1.00%	100	67		12
Luke Jerling	0.98%	102	67		95
Lyle Rowe	1.19%	84	67		70
M.J. Daffue	3.26%	31	29		70
M.J. Viljoen	1.15%	87	51		6
Makhetha Mazibuko	0.00%	10000	2501		41
Malcolm Mitchell	0.03%	3333	201		41
Mandla Dlamini	0.00%	10000	2001		130
Marcel Steyn Scholtz	0.00%	10000	2001		122
Martin Rohwer	0.47%	213	36		8
Martin Vorster	4.13%	24	41	1.70%	112	-1.7	Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
Matthew Spacey	0.02%	5000	201		31
Merrick Bremner	0.00%	10000	2001		109
Mikkel Antonsen	0.00%	10000	1501		41
Musiwalo Nethunzwi	0.00%	10000	751		52
Neil Schietekat	0.26%	385	126		87
Nikhil Rama	0.93%	108	67		17
Nyasha Muyambo	0.00%	10000	2501		87
Otto Van Buynder	0.01%	10000	351		80
Peter Karmis	0.27%	370	81		56
Pierre Pellegrin	0.00%	10000	1501		47
Pierre Viallaneix	0.54%	185	101		33
Pieter Moolman	4.90%	20	21	0.10%	56	-0.1	Skybet: 20/1, 5pl, 1/5
Quintin Wilsnach	0.01%	10000	351		118
Rhys West	0.04%	2500	176		99
Ricky Hendler	0.06%	1667	251		109
Robin Williams	5.05%	20	19		106
Robson Chinhoi	0.00%	10000	501		8
Rourke Van Der Spuy	0.00%	10000	1001
Rowan Lester	0.09%	1111	201		31
Ruan Conradie	0.11%	909	126		56
Ruan De Smidt	0.00%	10000	1501		132
Ruan Groenewald	0.00%	10000	1001		87
Ruan Korb	0.09%	1111	141		80
Rupert Kaminski	0.18%	556	151		106
Ryan Van Der Klis	0.03%	3333	251		87
Ryan Van Velzen	1.40%	71	21		23
S.P. Mthethwa	0.00%	10000	2501		133
Samuel Simpson	2.05%	49	41		99
Sentanio Minnie	0.00%	10000	1251		56
Simon Du Plooy	0.00%	10000	1001		99
Slade Pickering	0.00%	10000	2501		56
Slenda Sithebe	0.00%	10000	1251		136
Stals Swart	0.10%	1000	161		33
Stefan Wears-Taylor	0.01%	10000	251		53
Stephen Ferreira	0.01%	10000	351		12
Stuart Krog	0.57%	175	71		50
Tafadzwa Nyamukondiwa	0.00%	10000	2001		127
Thabiso Ngcobo	0.00%	10000	1001		80
Thomas Spreadborough	0.02%	5000	251		41
Tomas Gana	0.14%	714	201		25
Toto Thimba	0.01%	10000	1251		99
Trevor Fisher, Jr.	0.06%	1667	161		56
Trevor Mahoney	0.00%	10000	1001		118
Tristen Strydom	0.06%	1667	301		4
Tristin Galant	0.00%	10000	1001
Tyran Snyders	0.51%	196	101		8
Tyron Davidowitz	0.00%	10000	2501		106
Tyrone Ryan	0.08%	1250	176		70
Umar Davids	0.00%	10000	2501		133
Warwick Purchase	0.03%	3333	251		95
Werner Deyzel	0.00%	10000	2001		118
Wilco Nienaber	8.63%	12	19	3.60%	80	-3.6	Spreadex: 18/1, 5pl, 1/5
Wynand Dingle	0.08%	1250	351		17
Xander Basson	0.02%	5000	2001		33
Yurav Premlall	1.91%	52	34		4
Zachary Chegwidden	0.00%	10000	2001		80

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Albert Venter	0.27%	370	111		102
Allen John	0.45%	222	81		14
Allister De Kock	0.01%	10000	301		115
Altin Van Der Merwe	1.44%	69	61		72
Anthony Michael	0.39%	256	71		46
Benjamin Follett-Smith	1.63%	61	46		14
Benjamin Van Wyk	1.41%	71	51		86
Brandon Meads	0.08%	1250	301		62
C.J. Du Plessis	0.71%	141	61		86
Callum Mowat	0.06%	1667	301		86
Christiaan Burke	2.63%	38	26		32
Christian Kriek	0.11%	909	301		14
Conner Mackenzie	0.19%	526	301		9
Danie Van Niekerk	0.15%	667	226		86
Daniel Cronje	1.28%	78	46		86
David Amm	0.12%	833	226		3
Deon Germishuys	4.17%	24	26	0.30%	3	0.15	Spreadex: 25/1, 5pl, 1/5
Doug McGuigan	0.17%	588	301		86
Dylan Mostert	0.32%	313	126		72
Eric Wowor	0.04%	2500	251		136
Estiaan Conradie	0.46%	217	126		46
Ethan Smith	0.31%	323	111		62
Evance Vukeya	0.00%	10000	301		137
Franklin Manchest	0.16%	625	226		86
Gerhard Pepler	0.57%	175	81		32
Graham Van Der Merwe	1.06%	94	56		46
Gregory Mckay	0.10%	1000	226		126
Hayden Griffiths	0.35%	286	126		62
Haydn Porteous	1.55%	65	36		1
Heinrich Bruiners	0.83%	120	61		46
Hennie O'Kennedy	0.48%	208	91		115
Hennie Otto	0.44%	227	91		102
Herman Loubser	2.36%	42	34		14
J.J. Senekal	1.32%	76	61		32
Jack Hawksby	0.55%	182	126		14
Jaco Ahlers	3.29%	30	23		32
Jaco Prinsloo	3.09%	32	34	0.20%	72	-0.2	Bet365: 33/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jacques Blaauw	1.01%	99	51		62
Jacques De Villiers	0.54%	185	81		126
Jacques Van Der Merwe	0.22%	455	91		122
Jacquin Hess	0.08%	1250	201		46
James Mack	0.44%	227	91		46
James Pennington	0.08%	1250	301		129
Jason Broomhead	0.11%	909	301		72
Jason Roets	0.97%	103	81		3
Jbe Kruger	0.66%	152	81		72
Jean Hugo	1.37%	73	61		129
Jean-Paul Strydom	0.46%	217	91		46
Joe Knox	0.20%	500	226		14
Joe Long	1.00%	100	91		32
John Bele	0.00%	10000	301		126
Jonathan Broomhead	2.71%	37	26		46
Jordan Burnand	0.87%	115	71		46
Jordan Duminy	0.05%	2000	276		122
Justin Walters	2.17%	46	36		9
Karabo Mokoena	0.37%	270	91		14
Kayle Wykes	0.02%	5000	301		62
Keagan Thomas	0.46%	217	61		86
Keanu Pestana	0.09%	1111	201		102
Keegan Mclachlan	0.14%	714	226		14
Keelan Africa	0.00%	10000	301		120
Keelan Van Wyk	0.17%	588	111		86
Keenan Davidse	1.69%	59	51		14
Khaya Jika	0.00%	10000	301		72
Kian Rose	0.19%	526	111		62
Kieron Van Wyk	2.02%	50	36		32
Kyle Barker	1.39%	72	61		62
Kyle De Beer	0.90%	111	71		14
Kyle McClatchie	0.33%	303	161		72
Leon Vorster	0.03%	3333	301		102
Liam Grehan	0.52%	192	111		102
Louis Albertse	1.89%	53	61	0.30%	14	-0.3	Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/5
Luke Brown	1.48%	68	51		32
Luke Jerling	1.22%	82	51		86
Lyle Rowe	1.33%	75	61		72
M.J. Daffue	2.51%	40	34		46
M.J. Viljoen	1.65%	61	46		9
Makhetha Mazibuko	0.03%	3333	301		32
Malcolm Mitchell	0.42%	238	111		72
Mandla Dlamini	0.00%	10000	301		122
Marcel Steyn Scholtz	0.11%	909	301		132
Martin Rohwer	0.93%	108	41		14
Martin Vorster	2.25%	44	41		86
Matthew Spacey	0.34%	294	101		32
Merrick Bremner	0.01%	10000	301		86
Mikkel Antonsen	0.21%	476	301		46
Musiwalo Nethunzwi	0.08%	1250	201		14
Neil Schietekat	0.94%	106	81		102
Nikhil Rama	1.15%	87	46		9
Nyasha Muyambo	0.03%	3333	301		72
Otto Van Buynder	0.31%	323	126		46
Peter Karmis	1.03%	97	67		72
Pierre Pellegrin	0.12%	833	301		46
Pierre Viallaneix	1.17%	85	71		3
Pieter Moolman	2.52%	40	29		32
Quintin Wilsnach	0.29%	345	126		115
Rhys West	0.49%	204	101		72
Ricky Hendler	0.42%	238	111		122
Robin Williams	3.08%	32	29		72
Robson Chinhoi	0.24%	417	161		3
Rourke Van Der Spuy	0.27%	370	226
Rowan Lester	0.44%	227	91		14
Ruan Conradie	0.63%	159	81		72
Ruan De Smidt	0.07%	1429	301		115
Ruan Groenewald	0.08%	1250	226		46
Ruan Korb	0.46%	217	91		102
Rupert Kaminski	0.64%	156	91		102
Ryan Van Der Klis	0.41%	244	126		86
Ryan Van Velzen	1.74%	57	34		32
S.P. Mthethwa	0.00%	10000	301		133
Samuel Simpson	1.64%	61	41		102
Sentanio Minnie	0.05%	2000	276		102
Simon Du Plooy	0.15%	667	226		102
Slade Pickering	0.08%	1250	301		62
Slenda Sithebe	0.00%	10000	276		135
Stals Swart	0.49%	204	91		14
Stefan Wears-Taylor	0.27%	370	151		32
Stephen Ferreira	0.21%	476	126		102
Stuart Krog	0.95%	105	61		32
Tafadzwa Nyamukondiwa	0.02%	5000	301		86
Thabiso Ngcobo	0.07%	1429	226		62
Thomas Spreadborough	0.32%	313	111		14
Tomas Gana	0.69%	145	91		14
Toto Thimba	0.24%	417	126		86
Trevor Fisher, Jr.	0.56%	179	91		46
Trevor Mahoney	0.02%	5000	251		133
Tristen Strydom	0.50%	200	126		14
Tristin Galant	0.00%	10000	251
Tyran Snyders	0.99%	101	71		1
Tyron Davidowitz	0.12%	833	301		115
Tyrone Ryan	0.59%	169	101		86
Umar Davids	0.00%	10000	301		129
Warwick Purchase	0.34%	294	101		102
Werner Deyzel	0.02%	5000	301		120
Wilco Nienaber	3.99%	25	31	0.80%	32	-0.8	Spreadex: 30/1, 5pl, 1/5
Wynand Dingle	0.62%	161	161		62
Xander Basson	0.37%	270	301		3
Yurav Premlall	1.94%	52	36		9
Zachary Chegwidden	0.05%	2000	301		46

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Jaco Prinsloo	7.69%	13	29	4.40%	12	-2	Skybet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/5
WIN: Wilco Nienaber	8.63%	12	19	3.60%	80	-2	Spreadex: 18/1, 5pl, 1/5
WIN: Deon Germishuys	10.42%	9.6	14	3.50%	23	-2	Spreadex: 13/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Wilco Nienaber	3.99%	25	31	0.80%	32	-1	Spreadex: 30/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Deon Germishuys	4.17%	24	26	0.30%	3	0.5	Spreadex: 25/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Louis Albertse	1.89%	53	61	0.30%	14	-1	Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Jaco Prinsloo	3.09%	32	34	0.20%	62	-1	Bet365: 33/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.