Simulation Results: Cape Town Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Albert Boneta	0.68%	147	141		68
Alex Goff	0.92%	109	101		90
Alfie Plant	0.16%	625	126		90
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	0.36%	278	141		82
Allen John	0.02%	5000	401		90
Altin Van Der Merwe	0.13%	769	151		82
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.00%	10000	1001		105
Andrew Wilson	0.90%	111	81		49
Anton Albers	0.19%	526	111		90
Austin Bautista	1.43%	70	71		27
Ayden Knight	0.00%	10000	2501		152
Baard Skogen	1.77%	56	56		39
Benjamin Hebert	1.25%	80	51		27
Benjamin Rusch	0.17%	588	251		63
Benjamin Van Wyk	0.13%	769	181		112
Bjorn Akesson	0.15%	667	226		39
Borja Virto	0.64%	156	101		39
Bryce Easton	0.47%	213	71		64
C.J. Du Plessis	0.01%	10000	501		112
Callan Barrow	0.05%	2000	251		39
Callum Farr	0.50%	200	91		68
Callum Tarren	0.86%	116	101		82
Calum Fyfe	0.53%	189	81		143
Canon Claycomb	0.01%	10000	1001		10
Christiaan Burke	0.49%	204	51		27
Christofer Rahm	0.00%	10000	601		55
Clement Sordet	3.92%	26	46	1.80%	82	-1.8	Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Collin Adams	0.00%	10000	751		82
Conor Purcell	1.56%	64	67	0.10%	27	-0.1	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Daan Huizing	0.03%	3333	201		90
Dan Erickson	1.68%	60	76	0.40%	13	-0.4	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/5
David Horsey	0.15%	667	151		10
Deon Germishuys	6.09%	16	21	1.40%	39	-1.4	Spreadex: 20/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dylan Mostert	0.01%	10000	1001		125
Estiaan Conradie	0.06%	1667	201		68
Filip Mruzek	0.02%	5000	251		68
Franklin Manchest	0.00%	10000	751		112
Gary Hurley	0.00%	10000	351		9
George Coetzee	0.12%	833	126		105
Gerhard Pepler	0.09%	1111	201		55
Graham Van Der Merwe	0.26%	385	151		27
Grant Haefner	0.00%	10000	351		27
Hamish Brown	0.83%	120	67		22
Haraldur Magnus	0.06%	1667	251		39
Haydn Porteous	1.09%	92	67		105
Heinrich Bruiners	0.04%	2500	251		112
Hennie O'Kennedy	0.02%	5000	401		152
Hennie Otto	0.01%	10000	401		2
Herman Loubser	1.69%	59	67	0.20%	112	-0.2	BetMGM: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hurly Long	0.51%	196	91		143
J.J. Senekal	0.17%	588	151		49
Jack Hawksby	0.06%	1667	301		90
Jack McDonald	0.39%	256	67		125
Jaco Ahlers	3.94%	25	46	1.80%	67	-1.8	Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jaco Prinsloo	6.20%	16	34	3.40%	90	-3.4	Spreadex: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jacques Blaauw	0.09%	1111	181		132
Jacques De Villiers	0.02%	5000	351		105
Jacquin Hess	0.00%	10000	1001		132
James Mack	0.07%	1429	401		82
James Meyer De Beco	0.02%	5000	301		64
James Sugrue	0.00%	10000	251		90
Jamie Rutherford	1.73%	58	81	0.50%	82	-0.5	Star Sports: 75/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jannik De Bruyn	2.84%	35	86	1.70%	27	-1.7	Spreadex: 85/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jason Roets	0.18%	556	201		18
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.00%	10000	401		112
Jean Hugo	0.76%	132	111		90
Jean-Paul Strydom	0.00%	10000	501		143
Jeppe Kristian Andersen	0.22%	455	151		112
Joel Moscatel	0.15%	667	251		112
John Gough	0.00%	10000	301		105
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	0.15%	667	201		105
Jordan Duminy	0.00%	10000	1501		155
Josh Hilleard	0.12%	833	201		112
Jovan Rebula	0.87%	115	51		90
Julien Quesne	0.91%	110	121	0.10%	27	-0.1	Unibet: 120/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julien Sale	0.39%	256	101		18
Karabo Mokoena	0.00%	10000	751		68
Keelan Africa	0.00%	10000	2501		148
Keenan Davidse	0.21%	476	226		55
Kieran Vincent	4.48%	22	26	0.70%	39	-0.7	Spreadex: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kieron Van Wyk	4.97%	20	41	2.60%	90	-2.6	Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
Kyle Barker	0.64%	156	161		27
Kyle De Beer	0.15%	667	201		68
Kyle McClatchie	0.00%	10000	751		55
Lars Van Meijel	0.56%	179	71		49
Liam Nolan	0.11%	909	201		27
Lorenzo Scalise	0.96%	104	81		27
Louis Albertse	0.49%	204	141		22
Lucas Vacarisas	0.32%	313	176		62
Luis Carrera	0.49%	204	67		155
Lukas Nemecz	1.20%	83	61		55
Luke Brown	0.48%	208	111		4
Luke Jerling	0.09%	1111	351		90
Lyle Rowe	0.22%	455	176		49
M.J. Daffue	0.39%	256	101		112
M.J. Viljoen	1.70%	59	71	0.30%	22	-0.3	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Malcolm Mitchell	0.02%	5000	351		60
Marc Warren	0.29%	345	126		13
Marcel Steyn Scholtz	0.00%	10000	2001		148
Martin Rohwer	0.39%	256	226		112
Martin Vorster	1.87%	53	67	0.40%	13	-0.4	Unibet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Southgate	0.48%	208	141		105
Matthis Besard	1.49%	67	46		125
Max Kennedy	0.48%	208	126		68
Maxence Giboudot	0.95%	105	151	0.30%	13	-0.3	Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Maximilian Kieffer	1.11%	90	67		18
Neil Schietekat	0.03%	3333	251		132
Nick Bachem	0.09%	1111	401		132
Nick Carlson	0.74%	135	91		68
Nikhil Rama	0.35%	286	101		39
Otto Van Buynder	0.00%	10000	751		10
Pablo Ereno Perez	2.58%	39	61	1.00%	4	2.9	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Palmer Jackson	0.12%	833	151		112
Pedro Figueiredo	0.07%	1429	126		68
Per Langfors	0.52%	192	151		39
Peter Karmis	0.03%	3333	151		125
Pieter Moolman	5.55%	18	23	1.30%	18	-1.3	Unibet: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rhys Enoch	0.60%	167	91		152
Rhys West	0.01%	10000	501		132
Ricky Hendler	0.01%	10000	751		143
Robert Foley	0.00%	10000	1001		64
Robin Petersson	0.08%	1250	226		112
Robin Sciot-Siegrist	0.86%	116	67		68
Robin Williams	3.09%	32	46	0.90%	68	-0.9	Unibet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robson Chinhoi	0.01%	10000	1001		60
Ronan Kleu	0.57%	175	176		68
Ruan Groenewald	0.00%	10000	2001		125
Ruan Korb	0.02%	5000	501		49
Rupert Kaminski	0.03%	3333	401		132
Ryan Lumsden	0.26%	385	201		4
Ryan Van Velzen	2.17%	46	26		39
Sam Hutsby	0.17%	588	161		90
Sam Jones	0.28%	357	151		22
Samuel Simpson	0.22%	455	176		13
Santiago Tarrio	0.06%	1667	176		3
Sebastian Friedrichsen	0.04%	2500	201		141
Stefan Wears-Taylor	0.01%	10000	501		68
Stephen Ferreira	0.01%	10000	601		132
Steven Brown	0.34%	294	226		82
Stuart Krog	0.22%	455	226		148
Tapio Pulkkanen	1.13%	88	61		4
Tom Lewis	0.09%	1111	91		27
Toto Thimba	0.01%	10000	1501		132
Trevor Fisher, Jr.	0.09%	1111	251		4
Tristin Galant	0.00%	10000	3001		148
Tyran Snyders	0.34%	294	151		132
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen	0.01%	10000	401		68
Victor Pastor	0.16%	625	301		49
Vince Van Veen	0.01%	10000	501		90
Warwick Purchase	0.00%	10000	501		141
Wilco Nienaber	2.31%	43	29		22
Will Enefer	0.22%	455	151		1
Wynand Dingle	0.04%	2500	1001		90
Xander Basson	0.02%	5000	801		125
Yannik Paul	0.92%	109	111		143
Yurav Premlall	1.70%	59	67	0.20%	125	-0.2	Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Jaco Prinsloo	6.20%	16	34	3.40%	90	-2	Spreadex: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Kieron Van Wyk	4.97%	20	41	2.60%	90	-2	Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
WIN: Clement Sordet	3.92%	26	46	1.80%	82	-2	Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.