Simulation Results: Cape Town Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adri Arnaus 1.86% 54 51 28
Albert Venter 0.03% 3333 2501 149
Alexander Settemsdal 0.04% 2500 601 138
Altin Van Der Merwe 1.13% 88 101 0.10% 132 -0.1 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Anthony Michael 0.14% 714 751 74
Anton Karlsson 0.08% 1250 401 74
Aron Zemmer 0.45% 222 226 118
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 1.29% 78 91 0.20% 47 -0.2 Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ben Sigel 0.01% 10000 751 98
Ben Stow 0.65% 154 81 98
Benjamin Follett-Smith 1.27% 79 34 36
Borja Virto 0.76% 132 81 11
Bradley Bawden 0.22% 455 276 110
Brandon Gildenhuys 0.01% 10000 2501 62
Bryce Easton 1.36% 74 101 0.40% 21 -0.4 Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
C.J. Du Plessis 0.28% 357 451 0.10% 47 -0.1 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Callan Barrow 0.07% 1429 351 118
Callum Mowat 0.13% 769 401 149
Calum Fyfe 0.18% 556 201 11
Cedric Gugler 0.11% 909 276 98
Chris Paisley 0.20% 500 751 0.10% 53 -0.1 Spreadex: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christiaan Burke 0.21% 476 201 36
Christofer Blomstrand 0.14% 714 751 118
Christofer Rahm 0.09% 1111 601 118
Christoffer Bring 0.27% 370 226 28
Combrinck Smit 0.04% 2500 2001 64
Conner Mackenzie 0.03% 3333 1001 153
Daan Huizing 0.48% 208 131 53
Danie Van Niekerk 0.20% 500 751 0.10% 28 -0.1 Skybet: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Daniel Van Tonder 6.49% 15 11 6
Daniel Young 1.07% 93 67 14
David Law 3.24% 31 21 45
Dayne Moore 0.03% 3333 751 132
Dermot Mcelroy 0.12% 833 276 118
Dylan Mostert 0.18% 556 501 132
Dylan Naidoo 1.28% 78 46 87
Ethan Smith 0.07% 1429 601 47
Euan Walker 1.25% 80 56 53
Felix Mory 1.33% 75 51 21
Filippo Celli 0.57% 175 56 14
Frank Kennedy 0.25% 400 161 98
Freddy Schott 2.63% 38 26 74
Fredrik From 0.47% 213 276 0.10% 28 -0.1 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
George Bloor 0.83% 120 121 28
Gerhard Pepler 0.49% 204 151 87
Graham Van Der Merwe 0.37% 270 251 98
Gregor Graham 0.17% 588 226 98
Hayden Hopewell 0.57% 175 101 47
Haydn Barron 0.65% 154 101 110
Heinrich Bruiners 0.64% 156 131 87
Hennie O'Kennedy 0.66% 152 176 0.10% 64 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hennie Otto 0.14% 714 751 36
Herman Loubser 0.19% 526 301 143
Ilirian Zalli 0.02% 5000 601 118
J.C. Ritchie 3.34% 30 21 14
J.J. Senekal 0.72% 139 101 36
Jack Hawksby 0.22% 455 751 0.10% 45 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jaco Ahlers 1.89% 53 34 98
Jaco Prinsloo 0.72% 139 1001 0.60% 110 -0.6 Unibet: 1000/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jaco Van Zyl 0.69% 145 81 118
Jacques Blaauw 1.18% 85 56 36
Jacques De Villiers 0.17% 588 501 138
James Kamte 0.00% 10000 2501 132
James Morrison 1.13% 88 91 110
Jamie Rutherford 1.31% 76 67 1
Jason Roets 0.23% 435 276 64
Jastice Mashego 0.01% 10000 2501 155
Jean Hugo 1.42% 70 51 6
Jens Fahrbring 1.68% 60 67 0.20% 110 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeremy Freiburghaus 0.32% 313 201 138
Jiri Zuska 0.05% 2000 351 138
Joachim B. Hansen 0.01% 10000 1001 110
Joe Long 0.22% 455 501 87
John Axelsen 0.47% 213 126 145
Jonathan Broomhead 2.27% 44 41 21
Jonathan Caldwell 0.29% 345 251 28
Jordan Duminy 0.01% 10000 1501 74
Jovan Rebula 1.26% 79 56 4
Justin Walters 1.06% 94 101 0.10% 21 -0.1 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Keegan Mclachlan 0.05% 2000 1501 118
Keelan Van Wyk 0.04% 2500 2001 118
Keenan Davidse 1.53% 65 67 2
Kyle Barker 0.92% 109 101 87
Kyle De Beer 0.44% 227 276 0.10% 87 -0.1 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kyle McClatchie 0.06% 1667 751 36
Lars Van Meijel 1.14% 88 56 36
Lee Slattery 0.57% 175 176 98
Liam Nolan 2.63% 38 51 0.70% 74 -0.7 Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lorenzo Scalise 0.73% 137 126 62
Louis Albertse 1.09% 92 126 0.30% 74 -0.3 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucas Vacarisas 0.47% 213 141 6
Lukas Nemecz 0.87% 115 61 36
Luke Brown 0.74% 135 76 64
Luke Jerling 0.38% 263 401 0.10% 59 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lyle Rowe 0.78% 128 126 6
M.J. Viljoen 0.81% 123 126 74
Malcolm Mitchell 0.80% 125 91 47
Martin Rohwer 0.37% 270 251 143
Martin Vorster 1.86% 54 34 14
Matt Oshrine 0.11% 909 501 3
Matthew Spacey 0.06% 1667 1501 118
Matthis Besard 0.95% 105 46 53
Max Kennedy 0.21% 476 126 132
Maxence Giboudot 0.18% 556 501 59
Maximilian Steinlechner 1.61% 62 29 64
Michael Feuerstein 0.07% 1429 1001 21
Michael Hollick 1.18% 85 101 0.20% 21 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nathan Legendre 0.14% 714 401 98
Neil Schietekat 0.87% 115 126 0.10% 74 -0.1 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nick Carlson 0.93% 108 251 0.50% 14 -0.5 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nick Cunningham 0.02% 5000 751 151
Nikhil Rama 1.46% 68 41 28
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 0.75% 133 81 98
Oliver Wilson 0.95% 105 126 0.20% 138 -0.2 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Palmer Jackson 0.01% 10000 201 47
Per Langfors 0.33% 303 131 74
Peter Karmis 0.15% 667 751 145
Pieter Moolman 2.00% 50 56 0.20% 21 -0.2 Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Quim Vidal 0.47% 213 176 11
Quintin Wilsnach 0.10% 1000 751 145
Renato Paratore 0.84% 119 126 74
Rhys Enoch 0.28% 357 251 14
Rhys West 0.20% 500 501 58
Ricky Hendler 0.28% 357 251 36
Robin Petersson 0.17% 588 351 110
Robin Sciot-Siegrist 0.95% 105 81 74
Robson Chinhoi 0.08% 1250 1501 74
Rourke Van Der Spuy 0.21% 476 751 0.10% 64 -0.1 Skybet: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ruan Korb 0.14% 714 1001 118
Rupert Kaminski 0.82% 122 126 87
Ryan Lumsden 0.48% 208 201 64
Sam Hutsby 1.03% 97 126 0.20% 28 -0.2 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sam Jones 0.98% 102 56 4
Sam Locke 0.07% 1429 401 118
Samuel Simpson 0.10% 1000 301 64
Santiago Tarrio 0.77% 130 161 0.10% 110 -0.1 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sebastian Friedrichsen 1.63% 61 67 0.10% 53 -0.1 Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Garcia 0.47% 213 81 64
Sebastien Gros 0.95% 105 111 59
Sentanio Minnie 0.01% 10000 3001 87
Soren Broholt Lind 0.25% 400 401 64
Stefan Wears-Taylor 0.21% 476 401 87
Stefano Mazzoli 1.16% 86 51 6
Stuart Krog 0.21% 476 1001 0.10% 74 -0.1 Paddy Power: 1000/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tadeas Tetak 0.38% 263 101 87
Taylor Funk 0.07% 1429 501 153
Thabiso Ngcobo 0.00% 10000 132
Thanda Mavundla 0.01% 10000 2501 145
Tomas Gouveia 0.85% 118 71 87
Tristin Galant 0.00% 10000 3001 156
Tyran Snyders 0.43% 233 176 98
Umar Davids 0.00% 10000 4001 151
Victor Pastor 0.56% 179 301 0.20% 118 -0.2 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vince Van Veen 0.29% 345 201 14
Werner Deyzel 0.24% 417 401 118
Wynand Dingle 0.00% 10000 201 98

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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