Simulation Results: Mauritius Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.76% 132 111 67
Adam Blomme 0.06% 1667 2001 86
Adri Arnaus 0.28% 357 251 44
Albin Bergstrom 0.16% 625 351 67
Alex Fitzpatrick 1.51% 66 41 37
Alexander Levy 0.42% 238 226 7
Allen John 0.06% 1667 1251 153
Altin Van Der Merwe 0.15% 667 601 116
Andrea Pavan 1.91% 52 61 0.30% 48 -0.3 BetMGM: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Andreas Halvorsen 0.54% 185 176 4
Andres Gallegos 0.02% 5000 1251 142
Angel Ayora 4.75% 21 11 21
Anthony Quayle 0.38% 263 201 9
Austin Bautista 0.26% 385 301 78
Ben Schmidt 1.05% 95 71 67
Ben Van Wyk 0.12% 833 1501 0.10% 67 -0.1 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.18% 556 351 78
Bjorn Akesson 0.16% 625 401 146
Brandon Robinson Thompson 2.11% 47 51 0.20% 78 -0.2 Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandon Stone 1.47% 68 61 9
C.J. Du Plessis 0.08% 1250 1001 142
Cameron Adam 0.95% 105 151 0.30% 63 -0.3 Betfred: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Casey Jarvis 1.87% 53 36 3
Christiaan Burke 0.66% 152 81 37
Christo Lamprecht 1.23% 81 36 48
Clement Charmasson 0.25% 400 251 48
Clement Sordet 0.81% 123 176 0.20% 54 -0.2 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Connor Mckinney 0.05% 2000 551 103
Daniel Brown (Oct1994) 2.90% 34 21 21
Daniel Rodrigues 0.51% 196 111 103
Daniel Van Tonder 1.32% 76 51 15
David Ravetto 0.90% 111 86 103
Davis Bryant 1.02% 98 71 135
Deon Germishuys 1.37% 73 81 0.10% 67 -0.1 BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dominic Foos 0.26% 385 401 116
Dylan Frittelli 0.82% 122 101 37
Dylan Mostert 0.01% 10000 4001 103
Dylan Naidoo 0.42% 238 201 62
Eddie Pepperell 0.67% 149 91 43
Euan Walker 0.23% 435 251 133
Eugenio Chacarra 2.82% 35 26 25
Felix Mory 0.45% 222 151 103
Francesco Laporta 1.37% 73 41 25
Franklin Manchest 0.00% 10000 4001 127
Fred Biondi 0.22% 455 226 32
Freddy Schott 0.31% 323 201
George Coetzee 0.15% 667 351 116
Gerhard Pepler 0.06% 1667 751 103
Gregorio De Leo 0.45% 222 126 21
Hennie Du Plessis 2.74% 36 56 1.00% 25 -1 Boyle Sports: 40/1, 10pl, 1/5
Hennie Otto 0.04% 2500 2001 103
Herman Loubser 0.25% 400 276 20
Hugo Townsend 0.86% 116 151 0.20% 19 -0.2 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hunter Logan 0.09% 1111 1501 127
Ivan Cantero 0.27% 370 176 116
J.C. Ritchie 1.48% 68 51 9
Jack Buchanan 0.25% 400 401 98
Jack Senior 0.71% 141 151 25
Jack Yule 0.04% 2500 1001 152
Jacob Skov Olesen 2.57% 39 34 116
Jacques Blaauw 0.11% 909 1251 98
Jacques De Villiers 0.06% 1667 601 86
Jacquin Hess 0.01% 10000 4001 142
James Mack 0.07% 1429 751 146
Jamie Rutherford 0.47% 213 351 0.20% 67 -0.2 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Roets 0.08% 1250 2001 98
Jayden Schaper 8.58% 12 8.5 1
Jean-Paul Strydom 0.04% 2500 5001 116
Jeff Winther 1.59% 63 46 54
Jens Dantorp 0.50% 200 151 153
Joakim Lagergren 1.19% 84 51 32
Joe Dean 0.45% 222 176 78
Joe Long 0.09% 1111 1501 86
John Parry 4.57% 22 17 5
Jonathan Broomhead 0.43% 233 176 52
Jordan Burnand 0.12% 833 1251 66
Joshua Berry 0.10% 1000 601 86
Jovan Rebula 0.26% 385 301 25
Julien Sale 0.19% 526 401 52
Keagan Thomas 0.07% 1429 2501 58
Keenan Davidse 0.21% 476 501 86
Kieran Vincent 0.84% 119 141 0.10% 15 -0.1 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kieron Van Wyk 0.33% 303 301 86
Kyle Barker 0.17% 588 501 103
Kyle De Beer 0.13% 769 801 148
Louis Albertse 0.22% 455 751 0.10% 103 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luis Carrera 0.49% 204 351 0.20% 116 -0.2 Betfred: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Jerling 0.13% 769 1001 56
Lyle Rowe 0.22% 455 401 56
M.J. Daffue 0.22% 455 276 37
M.J. Viljoen 0.14% 714 801 86
Malcolm Mitchell 0.03% 3333 3001 140
Manuel Elvira 1.02% 98 111 0.10% 7 -0.1 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Marcel Schneider 1.64% 61 46 37
Marcel Siem 0.80% 125 91 37
Marcus Armitage 2.05% 49 41 15
Marcus Kinhult 0.83% 120 111 58
Marcus Taylor 0.00% 10000 4001
Martin Vorster 0.37% 270 251 67
Matthew Baldwin 0.20% 500 401 103
Michael Feuerstein 0.04% 2500 2501 58
Michael Hollick 0.68% 147 111 9
Mikael Lindberg 1.68% 60 51 44
Mike Toorop 0.05% 2000 1001 103
Nathan Kimsey 1.38% 72 71 25
Neil Schietekat 0.08% 1250 1501 103
Nick Bachem 0.11% 909 1501 48
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.29% 345 301 98
Nikhil Rama 0.20% 500 501 63
Niklas Lemke 1.08% 93 141 0.40% 32 -0.4 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 0.50% 200 101 9
Oliver Bekker 0.44% 227 81 139
Oliver Lindell 1.96% 51 31 32
Pierre Pellegrin 0.00% 10000 3001 135
Pierre Viallaneix 0.09% 1111 751 67
Pieter Moolman 0.96% 104 141 0.30% 116 -0.3 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Quentin Debove 0.03% 3333 501 78
Quim Vidal 0.21% 476 501 58
Quintin Wilsnach 0.03% 3333 3001 63
Renato Paratore 0.41% 244 151 44
Rhys Enoch 0.13% 769 801 86
Rhys West 0.04% 2500 2001 142
Richard Sterne 1.23% 81 56 98
Ricky Hendler 0.07% 1429 2501 116
Robin Williams 0.60% 167 126 103
Robson Chinhoi 0.01% 10000 5001 153
Rocco Repetto 0.46% 217 176 44
Ross Fisher 0.33% 303 301 67
Rowan Lester 0.06% 1667 2501 135
Ruan Korb 0.05% 2000 1501 116
Rupert Kaminski 0.07% 1429 1501 140
Ryan Gerard 1.81% 55 23 2
Ryan Peake 0.10% 1000 2001 0.10% 67 -0.1 Bet365: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Van Der Klis 0.05% 2000 3001 148
Ryan Van Velzen 0.36% 278 401 0.10% 78 -0.1 Betfred: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryggs Johnston 0.24% 417 401 86
Sadom Kaewkanjana 0.80% 125 61 127
Samuel Simpson 0.31% 323 201 78
Scott Jamieson 0.88% 114 111 9
Sebastian Garcia 0.35% 286 251 78
Shubhankar Sharma 0.20% 500 301 32
Stals Swart 0.07% 1429 86
Stefano Mazzoli 0.86% 116 111 86
Stephen Ferreira 0.04% 2500 2501 151
Tobias Jonsson 0.29% 345 251 18
Todd Clements 0.96% 104 61 116
Tom Vaillant 1.63% 61 36 25
Toto Thimba 0.01% 10000 2501 127
Tyran Snyders 0.11% 909 801 127
Tyrone Ryan 0.04% 2500 3001 135
Warwick Purchase 0.03% 3333 1251 133
Wilco Nienaber 0.50% 200 161 21
Wynand Dingle 0.07% 1429 2501 127
Xander Basson 0.06% 1667 2001 150
Yurav Premlall 0.26% 385 351 86
Zander Lombard 0.00% 10000 101 5

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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