Simulation Results: Alfred Dunhill Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.77% 130 126 78
Adam Blomme 0.04% 2500 1251 113
Albin Bergstrom 0.27% 370 226 129
Aldrich Potgieter 1.20% 83 34 9
Alejandro Del Rey 1.23% 81 61 40
Altin Van Der Merwe 0.15% 667 601 68
Andrea Pavan 1.49% 67 111 0.60% 64 -0.6 Boyle Sports: 75/1, 10pl, 1/5
Angel Ayora 4.34% 23 13 46
Angel Hidalgo 0.50% 200 151 104
Antoine Rozner 1.44% 69 71 14
Austin Bautista 0.22% 455 501 89
Ben Schmidt 0.42% 238 126 46
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.13% 769 401 56
Bjorn Akesson 0.18% 556 501 119
Branden Grace 2.88% 35 21 9
Brandon Robinson Thompson 1.00% 100 111 0.10% 32 -0.1 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandon Stone 0.88% 114 67 23
Bryan Newman 0.00% 10000 2501 145
Calum Hill 1.07% 93 71 32
Casey Jarvis 1.50% 67 41 32
Charl Barnard 0.00% 10000 701 145
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 5.77% 17 10 9
Christiaan Burke 0.31% 323 176 4
Dan Bradbury 2.42% 41 34 62
Danie Van Niekerk 0.01% 10000 2001 145
Daniel Bennett 0.03% 3333 201 78
Daniel Cronje 0.04% 2500 601 56
Daniel Van Tonder 0.91% 110 67 14
Daniel Young 0.73% 137 201 0.20% 40 -0.2 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Darius Van Driel 0.51% 196 176 46
Darren Fichardt 0.95% 105 151 0.30% 129 -0.3 Betfred: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Law 0.65% 154 141 89
David Ravetto 0.80% 125 111 56
Dean Burmester 2.30% 43 21 32
Deon Germishuys 0.79% 127 126 56
Dylan Frittelli 0.55% 182 201 0.10% 14 -0.1 Betfred: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Mostert 0.01% 10000 2501 129
Dylan Naidoo 0.26% 385 351 139
Euan Walker 0.32% 313 401 0.10% 145 -0.1 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Eugenio Chacarra 1.53% 65 56 3
Felix Mory 0.30% 333 251 89
Francesco Laporta 1.56% 64 51 139
George Coetzee 0.16% 625 351 80
Graham Van Der Merwe 0.10% 1000 1501 129
Grant Forrest 1.19% 84 67 89
Guido Migliozzi 0.51% 196 91 89
Haydn Porteous 0.08% 1250 501 14
Heinrich Bruiners 0.04% 2500 2001 89
Hennie Du Plessis 3.47% 29 41 1.10% 64 -1.1 Boyle Sports: 28/1, 10pl, 1/5
Hennie O'Kennedy 0.02% 5000 1001 145
Herman Loubser 0.12% 833 751 14
Hugo Townsend 0.24% 417 301 14
Ivan Cantero 0.17% 588 301 119
J.C. Ritchie 1.34% 75 71 32
J.J. Senekal 0.04% 2500 1001 68
Jack Senior 0.53% 189 226 0.10% 129 -0.1 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jaco Ahlers 0.73% 137 226 0.30% 46 -0.3 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jaco Prinsloo 0.51% 196 351 0.20% 46 -0.2 Betfred: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jacob Skov Olesen 2.06% 49 56 0.30% 40 -0.3 Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jacques Blaauw 0.13% 769 551 139
Jacques Kruyswijk 1.36% 74 81 0.10% 119 -0.1 Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jacquin Hess 0.01% 10000 5001 153
Jake Bolton 0.00% 10000 2501 129
James Morrison 0.29% 345 351 23
Jamie Rutherford 0.18% 556 551 40
Jason Roets 0.06% 1667 1251 139
Jayden Schaper 5.70% 18 13 1
Jean Hugo 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 104 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeff Winther 0.34% 294 151 23
Jens Dantorp 0.36% 278 226 113
Joe Dean 0.33% 303 251 113
Joel Girrbach 0.56% 179 141 14
John Parry 2.69% 37 31 7
Jonathan Broomhead 0.32% 313 176 23
Joost Luiten 3.30% 30 46 1.20% 104 -1.2 Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Burnand 0.08% 1250 751 89
Jorge Campillo 1.59% 63 71 0.20% 23 -0.2 Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joshua Berry 0.14% 714 501 151
Joshua Koekemoer 0.00% 10000 1251 156
Jovan Rebula 0.14% 714 351 104
Julien Guerrier 1.69% 59 61 0.10% 113 -0.1 Betfred: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Junghwan Lee 0.64% 156 176 0.10% 68 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Justin Walters 0.08% 1250 401 23
Karabo Mokoena 0.01% 10000 2001 23
Keenan Davidse 0.19% 526 601 119
Kieran Vincent 0.86% 116 101 68
Kyle Barker 0.11% 909 601 89
Louis Albertse 0.29% 345 326 89
Louis De Jager 0.05% 2000 501 129
Louis Oosthuizen 1.76% 57 29 4
Luca Filippi 0.00% 10000 5001 152
Luis Carrera 0.38% 263 251 64
Luke Brown 0.07% 1429 751 23
Luke Jerling 0.12% 833 751 104
Lyle Rowe 0.10% 1000 751 113
M.J. Viljoen 0.14% 714 1001 56
Makhetha Mazibuko 0.00% 10000 5001 139
Malcolm Mitchell 0.01% 10000 1501 119
Manuel Elvira 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 46 -0.1 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Marcel Schneider 0.96% 104 111 0.10% 23 -0.1 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Marcel Siem 0.33% 303 276 56
Marcus Armitage 1.47% 68 56 40
Marcus Kinhult 0.82% 122 151 0.20% 89 -0.2 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marcus Taylor 0.00% 10000 2501 155
Martin Couvra 1.30% 77 67 7
Martin Vorster 0.33% 303 351 89
Michael Hollick 0.46% 217 176 9
Mikael Lindberg 0.68% 147 76 14
Musiwalo Nethunzwi 0.00% 10000 2501 129
Nacho Elvira 0.81% 123 126 46
Nathan Kimsey 0.70% 143 126 32
Neil Schietekat 0.04% 2500 1501 119
Nick Bachem 0.03% 3333 1501 80
Nikhil Rama 0.18% 556 601 129
Niklas Lemke 0.27% 370 251 32
Ockie Strydom 0.05% 2000 1501 32
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 0.17% 588 251 46
Oliver Bekker 0.23% 435 401 4
Oliver Lindell 1.42% 70 36 46
Pablo Larrazabal 0.47% 213 251 0.10% 75 -0.1 Betfred: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pierre Viallaneix 0.04% 2500 1001 40
Pieter Moolman 0.89% 112 226 0.40% 80 -0.4 Betfred: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Quim Vidal 0.11% 909 501 89
Rhys Enoch 0.19% 526 301 113
Richard Sterne 1.25% 80 46 89
Ricky Hendler 0.04% 2500 1251 119
Robin Williams 0.61% 164 126 89
Robson Chinhoi 0.01% 10000 2501 119
Rocco Repetto 0.40% 250 126 64
Romain Langasque 1.19% 84 111 0.30% 75 -0.3 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ronald Rugumayo 0.00% 10000 2501 139
Ross Fisher 0.25% 400 401 80
Ruan Korb 0.03% 3333 1001 68
Rupert Kaminski 0.05% 2000 1251 80
Ryan Van Velzen 0.35% 286 276 104
Ryggs Johnston 0.22% 455 401 68
Sam Bairstow 1.03% 97 67 119
Samuel Simpson 0.13% 769 601 9
Scott Jamieson 0.70% 143 176 0.10% 80 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Garcia 0.29% 345 201 75
Shaun Norris 1.00% 100 81 2
Stals Swart 0.03% 3333 1001 80
Stephen Ferreira 0.03% 3333 2501 104
Stuart Krog 0.07% 1429 751 68
Thriston Lawrence 1.79% 56 29 14
Tobias Jonsson 0.21% 476 301 89
Todd Clements 0.55% 182 71 104
Toto Thimba 0.01% 10000 1251 119
Trevor Mahoney 0.00% 10000 2501 154
Warwick Purchase 0.02% 5000 1251 129
Werner Deyzel 0.00% 10000 5001 150
Wilco Nienaber 0.37% 270 141 104
Wynand Dingle 0.03% 3333 1501 80
Yurav Premlall 0.15% 667 351 46
Yuto Katsuragawa 0.75% 133 126 80
Zander Lombard 0.00% 10000 71 62

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


© Copyright 1999-2025 Tour-Tips.com.
All rights reserved.

This Week's Updates