Simulation Results: U.S. Senior Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alan McLean	0.00%	10000	2001		51
Alex Cejka	2.72%	37	46	0.60%	14	-0.6	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Marshall	0.03%	3333	251		26
Andrew Sapp	0.00%	10000	1501		106
Angel Cabrera	0.16%	625	201		95
Artie Fink	0.00%	10000			151
Ben Crane	2.32%	43	46	0.10%	38	-0.1	Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Billy Andrade	0.00%	10000	601		14
Bo Van Pelt	0.80%	125	56		134
Bob Rittberger	0.00%	10000			149
Bob Royak	0.00%	10000	2501		137
Boo Weekley	0.32%	313	67		153
Brad Lardon	0.00%	10000	2001		79
Bradford Kuester	0.00%	10000	201		131
Brandt Jobe	0.00%	10000	301		122
Brendan Jones	0.00%	10000	501		20
Brett Quigley	0.02%	5000	301		61
Brian Gay	0.10%	1000	176		118
Brian Guetz	0.00%	10000	2001		79
Brock Ehler	0.00%	10000	2501		106
Bruce Nakamura	0.00%	10000	2501		144
Burke Cromer	0.00%	10000	2001		118
Caine Fitzgerald	0.00%	10000	2501		139
Cameron Percy	2.95%	34	34		49
Chad Campbell	0.00%	10000	276		56
Chad Fribley	0.00%	10000	2501		106
Charlie Wi	0.31%	323	81		20
Chris Devlin	0.00%	10000	2001		17
Chris Dompier	0.00%	10000			89
Chris Eassy	0.00%	10000	2501		128
Chris Kamin	0.00%	10000	2001		71
Chris Riley	0.00%	10000	2001		71
Cliff Kresge	0.00%	10000	1001		118
Colin Montgomerie	0.06%	1667	201		42
Craig Bowden	0.00%	10000	1251		79
Darren Clarke	1.72%	58	41		8
Darren Fichardt	4.02%	25	34	1.10%	61	-1.1	Ladbrokes: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Bransdon	0.01%	10000	401		79
David Drysdale	0.01%	10000	401		122
David Mathis	0.00%	10000	2001		49
David P. Noto	0.00%	10000	2501		149
David Roesch	0.00%	10000	751		139
David Toms	0.23%	435	101		61
Davis Love	0.00%	10000	501		95
Dicky Pride	0.53%	189	56		61
Douglas Hanzel	0.00%	10000	2501		106
Eric Meichtry	0.00%	10000	2501		131
Ernie Els	6.17%	16	21	1.50%	11	-1.5	Boyle Sports: 18/1, 7pl, 1/5
Freddie Jacobson	3.95%	25	23		14
Gene Sauers	0.00%	10000	401		38
George McNeill	5.68%	18	31	2.50%	3	8.125	BetVictor: 30/1, 5pl, 1/4
Greg Chalmers	0.22%	455	101		44
Greg Owen	0.12%	833	86		95
Greg Sanders	0.00%	10000	2501		145
Hank Kim	0.00%	10000	2501		60
Hank Kuehne	0.00%	10000	1001		106
Haymes Snedeker	0.00%	10000	2501		36
Heath Slocum	0.04%	2500	501		89
Henrik Stenson	0.21%	476	41		11
Ian Poulter	1.83%	55	23		4
J.J. Abraham	0.00%	10000	1501		131
J.J. Henry	0.04%	2500	251		44
James Kingston	0.00%	10000	251		89
Jamie Donaldson	0.19%	526	56		5
Jason Caron	1.00%	100	67		20
Jason Schmuhl	0.00%	10000	2501		134
Jay Haas	0.00%	10000	751		71
Jeff Gove	0.00%	10000			95
Jeff Maggert	0.01%	10000	601		36
Jeff Martin	0.00%	10000	1001		106
Jeff Williams	0.00%	10000	2001		95
Jerod Turner	0.00%	10000	2001		95
Jerry Kelly	0.45%	222	101		17
Jerry Springer	0.00%	10000			152
Joakim Haeggman	0.01%	10000	251		79
Joe Durant	0.01%	10000	351		61
John Kennedy	0.00%	10000	2501		137
John O'Leary	0.00%	10000	2001		134
John Rollins	0.03%	3333	301		11
Jonathan Clark	0.00%	10000	751		148
Justin Hicks	0.05%	2000	251		26
Justin Leonard	0.46%	217	101		61
K.J. Choi	0.08%	1250	151		38
Katsumasa Miyamoto	0.01%	10000	601		95
Keith Horne	0.00%	10000	301		95
Ken Tanigawa	0.05%	2000	351		31
Kevin Sutherland	0.10%	1000	251		153
Kirk Triplett	0.00%	10000	601		55
Lee Janzen	0.00%	10000	2001		118
Mark Calcavecchia	0.00%	10000	5001
Mark Hensby	0.09%	1111	101		89
Mark Wilson	0.01%	10000	751		44
Matt Daniel	0.00%	10000	2501		61
Matt Gogel	0.65%	154	67		26
Michael Block	3.29%	30	36	0.50%	31	-0.5	Spreadex: 35/1, 6pl, 1/5
Michael Campbell	0.00%	10000	1001		61
Michael McCoy	0.00%	10000	2501		106
Michael Pearson	0.00%	10000	2501		106
Michael Wright	0.12%	833	176		20
Miguel Angel Jimenez	1.57%	64	26		8
Mikael Lundberg	0.00%	10000	301		79
Mike Stamberger	0.00%	10000	2501		95
Mike Weir	0.09%	1111	201		79
Notah Begay	0.00%	10000	2001		106
Olin Browne	0.00%	10000	2501		130
Omar Uresti	0.00%	10000	1001		59
Padraig Harrington	4.97%	20	12		1
Pat Perez	2.67%	37	41	0.20%	8	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patrik Sjoland	0.00%	10000	751		71
Paul Goydos	0.03%	3333	251		79
Paul Stankowski	0.44%	227	126		5
Paul Wackerly	0.00%	10000	2501		128
Peter Baker	0.19%	526	151		106
Retief Goosen	3.92%	26	21		5
Ricardo Gonzalez	0.12%	833	151		54
Richard Green	2.13%	47	34		26
Rick Cramer	0.00%	10000			139
Rob Labritz	0.00%	10000	351		79
Robert Karlsson	0.03%	3333	201		89
Ryan Armour	0.11%	909	251		26
Ryan Gracey	0.00%	10000	2501		139
Ryan Malby	0.00%	10000	2501		122
Scott Berliner	0.00%	10000	2501
Scott Dunlap	0.00%	10000	751		106
Scott Hend	1.36%	74	23		38
Scott Parel	0.01%	10000	401		51
Shane Bertsch	0.02%	5000	601		31
Shaun Micheel	0.00%	10000	1501		89
Simon Griffiths	0.00%	10000	401		31
Soren Kjeldsen	4.54%	22	23	0.20%	20	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephen Ames	0.51%	196	81		44
Stephen Dodd	0.00%	10000	2001		71
Stephen Nichols	0.00%	10000	2001		122
Steve Allan	0.92%	109	51		61
Steve Flesch	0.15%	667	176		71
Steve Sear	0.00%	10000	2001		122
Steven Alker	7.77%	13	15	1.20%	71	-1.2	Boyle Sports: 14/1, 7pl, 1/5
Stewart Cink	20.39%	4.9	6	4.50%	2	0	Boyle Sports: 5/1, 7pl, 1/5
Stuart Appleby	0.02%	5000	351		95
Tag Ridings	0.54%	185	111		79
Takashi Iwamoto	0.00%	10000	1001		51
Thammanoon Sriroj	0.40%	250	101		57
Thomas Gogele	0.00%	10000	401		122
Thongchai Jaidee	0.64%	156	46		58
Tim O'Neal	0.18%	556	251		44
Tim Petrovic	0.13%	769	251		31
Tom Werkmeister	0.00%	10000	2501		145
Tommy Gainey	3.73%	27	29	0.30%	20	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 28/1, 7pl, 1/5
Tracy Phillips	0.00%	10000	2001		71
Tracy Vest	0.00%	10000	2501		139
Tucker Sampson	0.00%	10000	2501		145
Van Phillips	0.00%	10000	601		61
Vijay Singh	0.40%	250	151		42
Warren Pineo	0.00%	10000	2001		106
Woody Austin	0.00%	10000	2501		95
Y.E. Yang	0.85%	118	81		17

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alan McLean	0.09%	1111	351		79
Alex Cejka	2.41%	41	51	0.50%	6	-0.5	William Hill: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Marshall	0.59%	169	111		58
Andrew Sapp	0.11%	909	351		40
Angel Cabrera	0.93%	108	101		94
Artie Fink	0.00%	10000	351		152
Ben Crane	2.40%	42	51	0.40%	6	-0.4	William Hill: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Andrade	0.16%	625	301		40
Bo Van Pelt	1.59%	63	56		58
Bob Rittberger	0.00%	10000	351		148
Bob Royak	0.01%	10000	351		128
Boo Weekley	1.14%	88	67		40
Brad Lardon	0.01%	10000	351		58
Bradford Kuester	0.00%	10000	101		94
Brandt Jobe	0.22%	455	151		122
Brendan Jones	0.23%	435	201		58
Brett Quigley	0.44%	227	201		40
Brian Gay	0.76%	132	101		109
Brian Guetz	0.00%	10000	351		40
Brock Ehler	0.00%	10000	351		128
Bruce Nakamura	0.00%	10000	351		150
Burke Cromer	0.00%	10000	351		58
Caine Fitzgerald	0.00%	10000	351		148
Cameron Percy	2.05%	49	51	0.10%	26	-0.1	William Hill: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chad Campbell	0.19%	526	151		26
Chad Fribley	0.00%	10000	351		128
Charlie Wi	1.10%	91	67		1
Chris Devlin	0.06%	1667	351		16
Chris Dompier	0.00%	10000	351		109
Chris Eassy	0.00%	10000	351		94
Chris Kamin	0.00%	10000	351		109
Chris Riley	0.05%	2000	351		58
Cliff Kresge	0.03%	3333	351		109
Colin Montgomerie	0.51%	196	111		16
Craig Bowden	0.02%	5000	351		94
Darren Clarke	2.06%	49	51	0.10%	26	-0.1	William Hill: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Darren Fichardt	2.93%	34	51	1.00%	16	-1	William Hill: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Bransdon	0.37%	270	151		109
David Drysdale	0.24%	417	151		122
David Mathis	0.04%	2500	351		26
David P. Noto	0.00%	10000	351		152
David Roesch	0.02%	5000	301		141
David Toms	0.86%	116	91		58
Davis Love	0.04%	2500	251		58
Dicky Pride	1.38%	72	56		79
Douglas Hanzel	0.00%	10000	351		128
Eric Meichtry	0.00%	10000	351		137
Ernie Els	2.78%	36	34		26
Freddie Jacobson	2.95%	34	34		3
Gene Sauers	0.16%	625	151		79
George McNeill	3.35%	30	41	0.90%	3	4.05	William Hill: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Greg Chalmers	0.98%	102	91		6
Greg Owen	0.66%	152	67		79
Greg Sanders	0.00%	10000	351		150
Hank Kim	0.00%	10000			40
Hank Kuehne	0.00%	10000	351		79
Haymes Snedeker	0.00%	10000	351		58
Heath Slocum	0.44%	227	301	0.10%	109	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Henrik Stenson	0.73%	137	51		26
Ian Poulter	2.17%	46	34		16
J.J. Abraham	0.00%	10000	351		128
J.J. Henry	0.61%	164	151		40
James Kingston	0.25%	400	111		79
Jamie Donaldson	0.99%	101	51		6
Jason Caron	1.32%	76	67		26
Jason Schmuhl	0.01%	10000	351		141
Jay Haas	0.09%	1111	301		109
Jeff Gove	0.06%	1667			109
Jeff Maggert	0.23%	435	301		26
Jeff Martin	0.03%	3333	301		109
Jeff Williams	0.01%	10000	351		94
Jerod Turner	0.00%	10000	351		40
Jerry Kelly	1.28%	78	81		40
Jerry Springer	0.01%	10000			154
Joakim Haeggman	0.30%	333	126		94
Joe Durant	0.27%	370	201		58
John Kennedy	0.00%	10000	351		141
John O'Leary	0.00%	10000	351		128
John Rollins	0.39%	256	151		40
Jonathan Clark	0.00%	10000	251		144
Justin Hicks	0.44%	227	111		16
Justin Leonard	1.31%	76	81	0.10%	94	-0.1	BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
K.J. Choi	0.80%	125	101		58
Katsumasa Miyamoto	0.44%	227	301	0.10%	58	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Keith Horne	0.19%	526	111		58
Ken Tanigawa	0.68%	147	126		26
Kevin Sutherland	0.77%	130	126		58
Kirk Triplett	0.15%	667	301		94
Lee Janzen	0.03%	3333	351		122
Mark Calcavecchia	0.00%	10000	501
Mark Hensby	0.74%	135	91		58
Mark Wilson	0.37%	270	301		79
Matt Daniel	0.00%	10000	351		58
Matt Gogel	1.19%	84	67		109
Michael Block	2.71%	37	51	0.80%	40	-0.8	William Hill: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Campbell	0.06%	1667	351		26
Michael McCoy	0.00%	10000	351		137
Michael Pearson	0.00%	10000	351		122
Michael Wright	0.89%	112	111		16
Miguel Angel Jimenez	1.93%	52	41		6
Mikael Lundberg	0.15%	667	111		94
Mike Stamberger	0.00%	10000	351		79
Mike Weir	0.76%	132	126		40
Notah Begay	0.31%	323	351		94
Olin Browne	0.05%	2000	351		122
Omar Uresti	0.18%	556	351		16
Padraig Harrington	3.29%	30	21		6
Pat Perez	2.01%	50	51	0.10%	40	-0.1	William Hill: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patrik Sjoland	0.05%	2000	301		79
Paul Goydos	0.54%	185	151		122
Paul Stankowski	0.96%	104	91		6
Paul Wackerly	0.00%	10000	351		128
Peter Baker	0.70%	143	91		109
Retief Goosen	2.37%	42	34		16
Ricardo Gonzalez	0.61%	164	101		58
Richard Green	2.22%	45	51	0.30%	6	-0.3	William Hill: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rick Cramer	0.00%	10000	351		128
Rob Labritz	0.24%	417	151		79
Robert Karlsson	0.58%	172	101		40
Ryan Armour	0.62%	161	126		58
Ryan Gracey	0.00%	10000	351		144
Ryan Malby	0.01%	10000	351		94
Scott Berliner	0.00%	10000	351
Scott Dunlap	0.14%	714	301		58
Scott Hend	1.91%	52	34		94
Scott Parel	0.31%	323	151		58
Shane Bertsch	0.37%	270	301		40
Shaun Micheel	0.19%	526	351		109
Simon Griffiths	0.27%	370	151		3
Soren Kjeldsen	3.08%	32	34	0.10%	6	-0.1	William Hill: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephen Ames	1.04%	96	67		16
Stephen Dodd	0.05%	2000	351		26
Stephen Nichols	0.00%	10000	351		79
Steve Allan	1.34%	75	56		79
Steve Flesch	0.69%	145	101		58
Steve Sear	0.00%	10000	351		137
Steven Alker	3.11%	32	29		40
Stewart Cink	4.90%	20	15		1
Stuart Appleby	0.43%	233	201		94
Tag Ridings	1.35%	74	91	0.30%	94	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takashi Iwamoto	0.03%	3333	301		79
Thammanoon Sriroj	0.99%	101	67		40
Thomas Gogele	0.22%	455	151		79
Thongchai Jaidee	1.12%	89	51		40
Tim O'Neal	0.71%	141	126		94
Tim Petrovic	0.86%	116	151	0.20%	16	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tom Werkmeister	0.00%	10000	351		144
Tommy Gainey	2.30%	43	41		6
Tracy Phillips	0.16%	625	351		79
Tracy Vest	0.00%	10000	351		144
Tucker Sampson	0.00%	10000	351		137
Van Phillips	0.19%	526	301		26
Vijay Singh	1.32%	76	101	0.30%	109	-0.3	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Warren Pineo	0.16%	625	351		128
Woody Austin	0.09%	1111	351		26
Y.E. Yang	1.27%	79	71		26

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Stewart Cink	20.39%	4.9	6	4.50%	2	0	Boyle Sports: 5/1, 7pl, 1/5
WIN: George McNeill	5.68%	18	31	2.50%	3	6.5	BetVictor: 30/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Ernie Els	6.17%	16	21	1.50%	11	-2	Boyle Sports: 18/1, 7pl, 1/5
FRL: Darren Fichardt	2.93%	34	51	1.00%	16	-1	William Hill: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: George McNeill	3.35%	30	41	0.90%	3	4.5	William Hill: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Michael Block	2.71%	37	51	0.80%	40	-1	William Hill: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Alex Cejka	2.41%	41	51	0.50%	6	-1	William Hill: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Ben Crane	2.40%	42	51	0.40%	6	-1	William Hill: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Richard Green	2.22%	45	51	0.30%	6	-1	William Hill: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.