Simulation Results: U.S. Senior Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva 0.39% 256 126 58
Alex Cejka 2.78% 36 41 0.30% 26 -0.3 Spreadex: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Marshall 0.17% 588 351 58
Andrew Sapp 0.01% 10000 1251 50
Angel Cabrera 2.76% 36 17 80
Arjun Atwal 0.13% 769 301 61
Bernhard Langer 2.86% 35 34 80
Billy Andrade 0.19% 526 451 13
Bo Van Pelt 1.09% 92 71 126
Bob Estes 0.42% 238 301 0.10% 45 -0.1 Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Boo Weekley 0.22% 455 311 66
Boomer Erick 0.00% 10000 1251 139
Brad Bryant 0.00% 10000 1501 93
Brad Kay 0.00% 10000 1251 145
Brandt Jobe 0.07% 1429 251 36
Brendan Jones 0.25% 400 501 0.10% 118 -0.1 Spreadex: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brett Quigley 0.56% 179 211 0.10% 49 -0.1 Spreadex: 210/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brian Gay 0.23% 435 501 36
Burke Cromer 0.00% 10000 1001 130
Cameron Percy 1.99% 50 67 0.50% 9 -0.5 Spreadex: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chad Campbell 0.12% 833 501 118
Channing Tam 0.00% 10000 1251 151
Chris Devlin 0.00% 10000 1001 55
Chris DiMarco 0.04% 2500 451 73
Christian Raynor 0.01% 10000 1251 102
Clark Dennis 0.02% 5000 751 93
Cliff Kresge 0.01% 10000 1001 93
Craig Barlow 0.65% 154 161 36
Dan Sullivan 0.00% 10000 111
Darin Fisher 0.00% 10000 1251 130
Darren Clarke 2.28% 44 67 0.80% 18 -0.8 Skybet: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Darrin Overson 0.00% 10000 1251 118
Dave Bunker 0.00% 10000 2001 93
David Branshaw 0.03% 3333 501 93
David Carr 0.01% 10000 142
David Toms 0.49% 204 201 45
Dicky Pride 0.40% 250 401 0.20% 9 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug Barron 1.19% 84 51 32
Doug Clapp 0.00% 10000 2501 111
Duffy Waldorf 0.02% 5000 2501 85
Ed Kirby 0.00% 10000 2001 111
Eric Axley 0.00% 10000 1251 73
Eric Meichtry 0.00% 10000 2001 118
Eric Rolland 0.00% 10000 1001 118
Ernie Els 4.92% 20 15 13
Fred Funk 0.00% 10000 2501 126
Freddie Jacobson 1.90% 53 34 16
Gene Sauers 0.13% 769 501 85
Glen Day 0.11% 909 551 102
Greg Chalmers 1.26% 79 101 0.30% 18 -0.3 Spreadex: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Greg Owen 0.31% 323 91 32
Greig Hutcheon 0.06% 1667 751 80
Harrison Frazar 0.69% 145 101 85
Hiroyuki Fujita 0.36% 278 301 85
J.J. Henry 0.42% 238 751 0.30% 26 -0.3 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Kingston 0.12% 833 151 66
Jason Caron 1.39% 72 61 9
Jason Gore 0.03% 3333 276 85
Jeff Maggert 0.09% 1111 451 111
Jeff Roth 0.00% 10000 152
Jeff Sluman 0.01% 10000 1501 130
Jerry Kelly 2.85% 35 23 36
Jim Carter 0.00% 10000 2001 102
Joakim Haeggman 0.12% 833 501 53
Joe Durant 0.36% 278 251 66
Joe Jaspers 0.00% 10000 1251 118
John Balfanz 0.00% 10000 1251 126
John Bushka 0.00% 10000 153
Justin Leonard 1.02% 98 81 22
K.J. Choi 1.62% 62 51 28
Katsumasa Miyamoto 0.10% 1000 751 13
Keith Horne 1.21% 83 81 73
Kelly Grunewald 0.00% 10000 2001 66
Ken Duke 0.32% 313 501 0.10% 28 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ken Tanigawa 0.68% 147 226 0.20% 66 -0.2 Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kevin Sutherland 0.80% 125 101 18
Kirk Triplett 0.11% 909 601 58
Lee Janzen 0.02% 5000 1501 111
Len Mattiace 0.00% 10000 2001 146
Manuel Inman 0.00% 10000 139
Marcus Jones 0.00% 10000 1251 85
Mark Hensby 1.49% 67 71 0.10% 4 0.65 PaddyPower: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mark Knowles 0.00% 10000 1251 139
Mark Owen 0.00% 10000 146
Mark Strickland 0.03% 3333 1001 93
Mathew Goggin 0.08% 1250 251 102
Matt Gogel 0.40% 250 276 36
Matt Schalk 0.00% 10000 1251 130
Michael Campbell 0.01% 10000 1501 73
Miguel Angel Jimenez 4.79% 21 12 3
Mikael Lundberg 0.06% 1667 102
Mike Fergin 0.00% 10000 1001 130
Mike Weir 0.33% 303 226 130
Notah Begay 0.03% 3333 1501 64
Olin Browne 0.01% 10000 1001 130
Padraig Harrington 5.09% 20 13 1
Paul Broadhurst 0.45% 222 276 0.10% 55 -0.1 Spreadex: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Goydos 0.85% 118 201 0.40% 65 -0.4 Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Stankowski 0.68% 147 301 0.30% 8 -0.3 Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Perry Parker 0.00% 10000 1501 142
Peter Baker 0.61% 164 81 36
Peter Samborsky 0.00% 10000 150
Retief Goosen 2.02% 50 26 53
Ricardo Gonzalez 1.09% 92 51 80
Richard Green 1.92% 52 36 45
Richard T. Lee 1.84% 54 1001 1.70% 130 -1.7 Ladbrokes: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rob McIver 0.00% 10000 111
Robert Coles 0.03% 3333 501 36
Robert Karlsson 0.73% 137 126 28
Robert Shields 0.00% 10000 1501 130
Rocco Mediate 0.12% 833 501 73
Rod Curl 0.00% 10000 1501 85
Rod Pampling 0.78% 128 231 0.30% 22 -0.3 Spreadex: 230/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rod Perry 0.00% 10000 2001 102
Roger Rowland 0.00% 10000 1251 102
Ron Philo 0.00% 10000 1501 93
Ryan Gioffre 0.00% 10000 2001 111
Ryan Helminen 0.00% 10000 1501 118
Scott Dunlap 0.04% 2500 1001 80
Scott Hend 1.76% 57 56 16
Scott Hunter 0.00% 10000 1001 126
Scott McCarron 0.10% 1000 501 102
Scott Parel 0.28% 357 191 36
Scott Verplank 0.00% 10000 2501 155
Shane Bertsch 0.24% 417 401 36
Simon Griffiths 0.38% 263 126 50
Soren Kjeldsen 7.04% 14 13 28
Stephen Ames 1.43% 70 56 73
Stephen Gallacher 1.26% 79 131 0.50% 18 -0.5 Spreadex: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steve Allan 0.97% 103 81 22
Steve Flesch 0.92% 109 81 6
Steve Schneiter 0.01% 10000 1251 93
Steven Alker 7.27% 14 11 7
Stewart Cink 8.25% 12 8.5 2
Stuart Appleby 0.19% 526 351 32
Stuart Smith 0.00% 10000 1001 155
Tag Ridings 0.75% 133 161 0.10% 32 -0.1 Spreadex: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takashi Kanemoto 0.00% 10000 2001 142
Ted Purdy 0.00% 10000 1001 45
Terrence Miskell 0.00% 10000 1251 146
Thomas Ansbro 0.00% 10000 1251 154
Thomas Bjorn 1.81% 55 36 4
Thomas Gogele 0.09% 1111 351 55
Thomas Levet 0.00% 10000 2001 93
Thongchai Jaidee 1.10% 91 131 0.30% 61 -0.3 Spreadex: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tim Petrovic 0.59% 169 91 9
Todd White 0.00% 10000 1501 102
Tom Greller 0.00% 10000 1501 118
Tom Pernice 0.02% 5000 1501 50
Tomas Arlia 0.00% 10000 1251 146
Tracy Phillips 0.05% 2000 1001 73
Van Phillips 0.01% 10000 1251 85
Vijay Singh 1.57% 64 81 0.30% 63 -0.3 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Willie Wood 0.01% 10000 1501 66
Woody Austin 0.05% 2000 1001 66
Y.E. Yang 0.00% 10000 41 22

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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