Simulation Results: Regions Tradition

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Alex Cejka 3.07% 33 23 12
Angel Cabrera 1.56% 64 34 1
Bernhard Langer 6.30% 16 21 1.60% 27 -1.6 Spreadex: 20/1, 5pl, 1/5
Billy Andrade 0.48% 208 201 63
Billy Mayfair 0.16% 625 301 58
Bob Estes 0.51% 196 276 0.10% 52 -0.1 Spreadex: 275/1, 5pl, 1/5
Boo Weekley 0.24% 417 301 12
Brandt Jobe 0.06% 1667 1001 56
Brett Quigley 0.67% 149 111 27
Brian Gay 0.75% 133 251 0.40% 77 -0.4 Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/5
Cameron Percy 2.49% 40 61 0.90% 36 -0.9 Paddy Power: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chad Campbell 0.05% 2000 751 52
Charlie Wi 0.89% 112 101 5
Chris DiMarco 0.02% 5000 1501 5
Colin Montgomerie 0.55% 182 176 52
Corey Pavin 0.01% 10000 2001 63
Darren Clarke 2.95% 34 34 42
David Bransdon 0.17% 588 351 38
David Duval 0.05% 2000 501 12
David Toms 0.50% 200 176 46
Davis Love 0.02% 5000 751 71
Dicky Pride 0.55% 182 251 0.20% 38 -0.2 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug Barron 1.06% 94 51 27
Ernie Els 9.92% 10 9 19
Freddie Jacobson 2.46% 41 41 27
Greg Chalmers 1.14% 88 67 27
Harrison Frazar 0.33% 303 376 0.10% 22 -0.1 Spreadex: 375/1, 5pl, 1/5
Heath Slocum 0.33% 303 151 56
Hiroyuki Fujita 0.20% 500 451 22
Jeff Maggert 0.09% 1111 501 62
Jerry Kelly 7.62% 13 15 1.00% 2 1.25 Paddy Power: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joe Durant 0.55% 182 71 75
John Daly 0.00% 10000 2001
John Huston 0.02% 5000 1001 65
John Senden 0.01% 10000 1501 74
Jose Maria Olazabal 0.01% 10000 2001 72
Ken Duke 0.34% 294 276 70
Ken Tanigawa 0.93% 108 111 67
Kenny Perry 0.23% 435 451 42
Kirk Triplett 0.06% 1667 1001 42
Lee Janzen 0.05% 2000 1251 58
Mario Tiziani 0.52% 192 176 58
Mark Hensby 1.25% 80 101 0.30% 22 -0.3 Paddy Power: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Gogel 0.30% 333 276 16
Michael Wright 0.33% 303 151 8
Miguel Angel Jimenez 5.69% 18 13 9
Mike Weir 0.99% 101 126 0.20% 27 -0.2 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Broadhurst 0.63% 159 151 52
Paul Goydos 0.69% 145 201 0.20% 9 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Stankowski 0.83% 120 131 0.10% 27 -0.1 Spreadex: 130/1, 5pl, 1/5
Retief Goosen 1.46% 68 31 9
Ricardo Gonzalez 0.54% 185 126 22
Richard Green 2.16% 46 29 16
Robert Karlsson 0.67% 149 81 38
Rod Pampling 0.88% 114 131 0.10% 46 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Dunlap 0.04% 2500 401 75
Scott McCarron 0.08% 1250 451 65
Scott Parel 0.35% 286 251 27
Shane Bertsch 0.24% 417 351 16
Stephen Ames 2.80% 36 34 5
Stephen Dodd 0.00% 10000 1501 73
Steve Allan 0.99% 101 81 46
Steve Flesch 0.76% 132 161 0.10% 46 -0.1 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steve Stricker 4.81% 21 10 22
Steven Alker 8.53% 12 10 4
Stewart Cink 9.40% 11 7 12
Stuart Appleby 0.28% 357 201 38
Tag Ridings 0.61% 164 71 46
Thomas Bjorn 1.26% 79 51 36
Thongchai Jaidee 1.02% 98 67 19
Tim O'Neal 0.80% 125 91 27
Tim Petrovic 0.47% 213 131 42
Tom Lehman 0.04% 2500 601 67
Tom Pernice 0.01% 10000 2501 69
Vijay Singh 1.63% 61 61 19
Will MacKenzie 0.00% 10000 401 58
Woody Austin 0.04% 2500 1001 46
Y.E. Yang 1.53% 65 41 3

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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