Simulation Results: Regions Tradition

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	2.60%	38	41	0.20%	5	0.1	BetMGM: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
Angel Cabrera	0.80%	125	51		45
Ben Crane	1.85%	54	29		20
Bernhard Langer	3.20%	31	36	0.40%	35	-0.4	Ladbrokes: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Mayfair	0.10%	1000	601		35
Bo Van Pelt	0.57%	175	81		24
Bob Estes	0.05%	2000	501		65
Boo Weekley	0.35%	286	126		15
Brett Quigley	0.02%	5000	401		78
Cameron Percy	3.54%	28	29	0.10%	30	-0.1	William Hill: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chad Campbell	0.01%	10000	751		76
Charlie Wi	0.51%	196	111		5
Chris DiMarco	0.01%	10000	751		73
Colin Montgomerie	0.14%	714	251		3
Darren Clarke	1.32%	76	76		54
David Duval	0.13%	769	161		39
David Toms	0.70%	143	51		39
Dicky Pride	0.56%	179	276	0.20%	15	-0.2	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug Barron	1.02%	98	81		5
Ernie Els	6.48%	15	17	0.60%	8	-0.6	Boyle Sports: 16/1, 6pl, 1/5
Fred Funk	0.00%	10000	2501
Freddie Jacobson	1.57%	64	51		8
Gene Sauers	0.03%	3333	1001		35
George McNeill	3.28%	30	41	0.90%	20	-0.9	Spreadex: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
Greg Chalmers	0.37%	270	151		59
Heath Slocum	0.11%	909	351		68
Jason Bohn	0.00%	10000	1501		59
Jeff Maggert	0.05%	2000	751		63
Jerry Kelly	2.54%	39	51	0.60%	54	-0.6	Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/5
Joe Durant	0.10%	1000	401		65
John Daly	0.01%	10000	751		71
John Senden	0.00%	10000	2001		75
Jose Maria Olazabal	0.01%	10000	1001		59
Justin Leonard	1.38%	72	41		28
K.J. Choi	0.99%	101	67		28
Ken Duke	0.01%	10000	601		39
Ken Tanigawa	0.18%	556	401		11
Kenny Perry	0.05%	2000	751		39
Kevin Sutherland	0.55%	182	201	0.10%			Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kirk Triplett	0.03%	3333	1001		24
Lee Janzen	0.00%	10000	2001		72
Matt Gogel	0.57%	175	141		15
Michael Allen	0.00%	10000	2501		45
Michael Wright	0.63%	159	71		65
Miguel Angel Jimenez	3.90%	26	23		30
Mike Weir	0.37%	270	201		45
Padraig Harrington	4.83%	21	15		11
Paul Goydos	0.12%	833	401		20
Paul Stankowski	0.36%	278	251		51
Retief Goosen	3.37%	30	21		19
Ricardo Gonzalez	0.27%	370	201		30
Richard Green	2.14%	47	76	0.80%	51	-0.8	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robert Karlsson	0.12%	833	351		39
Rocco Mediate	0.02%	5000	1001		24
Rod Pampling	0.07%	1429	351		54
Rory Sabbatini	0.01%	10000	61		24
Scott Hend	2.75%	36	23		2
Scott McCarron	0.02%	5000	601		74
Scott Parel	0.16%	625	401		30
Shane Bertsch	0.32%	313			45
Soren Kjeldsen	2.84%	35	34		4
Stephen Ames	1.84%	54	51		11
Stephen Dodd	0.00%	10000	2501		63
Steve Allan	1.62%	62	36		39
Steve Flesch	0.39%	256	151		77
Steve Stricker	1.66%	60	23
Steven Alker	9.25%	11	9		11
Stewart Cink	17.75%	5.6	4.33		1
Stuart Appleby	0.07%	1429	1001		54
Tag Ridings	0.95%	105	71		45
Thongchai Jaidee	1.69%	59	46		15
Tim O'Neal	0.34%	294	201		35
Tim Petrovic	0.23%	435	251		51
Tom Pernice	0.01%	10000	751		59
Tommy Gainey	2.70%	37	31		45
Vijay Singh	1.68%	60	71	0.30%	20	-0.3	Spreadex: 70/1, 5pl, 1/5
Woody Austin	0.00%	10000	2501		54
Y.E. Yang	1.76%	57	46		8

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	2.60%	38	36		1
Angel Cabrera	1.30%	77	41		43
Ben Crane	2.03%	49	29		55
Bernhard Langer	2.87%	35	34		55
Billy Andrade	0.26%	385	251		74
Billy Mayfair	0.47%	213	226		28
Bo Van Pelt	1.08%	93	51		28
Bob Estes	0.36%	278	226		28
Boo Weekley	0.86%	116	81		55
Brett Quigley	0.20%	500	226		28
Cameron Percy	3.03%	33	29		55
Chad Campbell	0.08%	1250	226		78
Charlie Wi	1.02%	98	67		3
Chris DiMarco	0.18%	556	226		74
Colin Montgomerie	0.57%	175	126		6
Darren Clarke	1.71%	58	56		64
David Duval	0.51%	196	101		43
David Toms	1.26%	79	41		43
Dicky Pride	1.10%	91	101	0.10%	6	-0.1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug Barron	1.55%	65	61		15
Ernie Els	4.41%	23	21		28
Fred Funk	0.00%	10000	401
Freddie Jacobson	1.94%	52	41		15
Gene Sauers	0.20%	500	301		43
George McNeill	2.88%	35	34		28
Greg Chalmers	0.84%	119	91		15
Heath Slocum	0.48%	208	126		74
Jason Bohn	0.09%	1111	251		55
Jeff Maggert	0.33%	303	251		64
Jerry Kelly	2.51%	40	41	0.10%	55	-0.1	BetMGM: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
Joe Durant	0.50%	200	151		64
John Daly	0.11%	909	226		43
John Senden	0.06%	1667	351		71
Jose Maria Olazabal	0.15%	667	251		64
Justin Leonard	1.94%	52	34		55
K.J. Choi	1.50%	67	51		28
Ken Duke	0.16%	625	201		28
Ken Tanigawa	0.60%	167	151		43
Kenny Perry	0.33%	303	151		20
Kevin Sutherland	1.10%	91	101	0.10%			Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kirk Triplett	0.27%	370	201		20
Lee Janzen	0.07%	1429	401		71
Matt Gogel	1.08%	93	81		28
Michael Allen	0.06%	1667	401		43
Michael Wright	1.18%	85	61		28
Miguel Angel Jimenez	3.27%	31	29		55
Mike Weir	0.84%	119	91		74
Padraig Harrington	3.63%	28	19		6
Paul Goydos	0.57%	175	151		28
Paul Stankowski	0.94%	106	111		20
Retief Goosen	2.96%	34	23		10
Ricardo Gonzalez	0.73%	137	101		20
Richard Green	2.24%	45	51	0.30%	20	-0.3	Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robert Karlsson	0.41%	244	126		43
Rocco Mediate	0.13%	769	251		15
Rod Pampling	0.36%	278	126		15
Rory Sabbatini	0.16%	625	41		28
Scott Hend	2.63%	38	29		3
Scott McCarron	0.17%	588	226		64
Scott Parel	0.58%	172	151		71
Shane Bertsch	0.89%	112	101		20
Soren Kjeldsen	2.79%	36	31		10
Stephen Ames	2.07%	48	34		10
Stephen Dodd	0.04%	2500	351		64
Steve Allan	1.95%	51	34		64
Steve Flesch	0.93%	108	81		20
Steven Alker	5.47%	18	15		3
Stewart Cink	8.19%	12	9		1
Stuart Appleby	0.40%	250	201		43
Tag Ridings	1.52%	66	51		43
Thongchai Jaidee	1.98%	51	41		6
Tim O'Neal	0.81%	123	101		20
Tim Petrovic	0.72%	139	101		55
Tom Pernice	0.20%	500	226		43
Tommy Gainey	2.66%	38	29		28
Vijay Singh	1.96%	51	51		28
Woody Austin	0.11%	909	301		43
Y.E. Yang	1.93%	52	41		10

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: George McNeill	3.28%	30	41	0.90%	20	-2	Spreadex: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
WIN: Richard Green	2.14%	47	76	0.80%	51	-2	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Ernie Els	6.48%	15	17	0.60%	8	-2	Boyle Sports: 16/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Richard Green	2.24%	45	51	0.30%	20	-1	Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jerry Kelly	2.51%	40	41	0.10%	55	-1	BetMGM: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Dicky Pride	1.10%	91	101	0.10%	6	-1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Kevin Sutherland	1.10%	91	101	0.10%			Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.