Simulation Results: Stifel Charity Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Alex Cejka 3.38% 30 26 3
Angel Cabrera 1.98% 51 29 11
Arjun Atwal 0.17% 588 126 41
Bernhard Langer 3.77% 27 46 1.60% 50 -1.6 Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Andrade 0.21% 476 226 30
Bo Van Pelt 0.30% 333 111 17
Bob Estes 0.40% 250 201 41
Boo Weekley 0.37% 270 81 30
Brandt Jobe 0.12% 833 161 30
Brendan Jones 0.16% 625 376 54
Brett Quigley 0.72% 139 126 17
Brett Wetterich 0.00% 10000 501 70
Brian Gay 0.52% 192 251 0.10% 62 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cameron Percy 4.31% 23 16 2
Chad Campbell 0.08% 1250 376 41
Charlie Wi 0.88% 114 101 9
Chris DiMarco 0.03% 3333 651 75
Corey Pavin 0.01% 10000 1251 62
David Bransdon 0.15% 667 251 68
David Toms 0.38% 263 151
Dicky Pride 0.71% 141 151 17
Doug Barron 1.39% 72 51 37
Duffy Waldorf 0.00% 10000 2501 30
Ernie Els 11.02% 9.1 11 2.10% 17 -2.1 Unibet: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
Felipe Aguilar 0.23% 435 276 50
Freddie Jacobson 3.36% 30 34 0.40% 37 -0.4 BetMGM: 33/1, 5pl, 1/5
Greg Chalmers 1.48% 68 46 24
Harrison Frazar 0.95% 105 67 17
Hiroyuki Fujita 0.12% 833 801 24
J.J. Henry 1.04% 96 201 0.50% 54 -0.5 Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jason Schultz 0.03% 3333 276 62
Jay Haas 0.01% 10000 801 41
Jeff Maggert 0.07% 1429 426 37
Jerry Kelly 5.38% 19 18 17
Joe Durant 0.59% 169 151 30
John Huston 0.03% 3333 401 54
John Rollins 0.43% 233 151 30
John Senden 0.00% 10000 1251 77
Justin Leonard 2.97% 34 23 11
Ken Duke 0.40% 250 101 76
Ken Tanigawa 0.72% 139 226 0.30% 41 -0.3 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kenny Perry 0.13% 769 201 30
Kirk Triplett 0.05% 2000 501 50
Mario Tiziani 0.40% 250 101 54
Mark Hensby 1.10% 91 46 10
Mark Walker 0.10% 1000 376 41
Mark Wilson 0.17% 588 301 17
Matt Gogel 1.33% 75 67 54
Michael Wright 0.64% 156 67 62
Olin Browne 0.00% 10000 2001 62
Paul Broadhurst 0.31% 323 251 37
Paul Goydos 0.81% 123 126 50
Paul Stankowski 0.92% 109 71 4
Retief Goosen 2.08% 48 34 24
Ricardo Gonzalez 1.86% 54 34 70
Richard Green 3.17% 32 36 0.40% 11 -0.4 Star Sports: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robert Karlsson 0.36% 278 201 24
Rocco Mediate 0.12% 833 501 54
Rod Pampling 0.60% 167 201 0.10% 41 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Russ Cochran 0.00% 10000 1251 78
Scott Dunlap 0.02% 5000 1001 73
Scott McCarron 0.04% 2500 501 74
Scott Parel 0.23% 435 426 11
Scott Verplank 0.00% 10000 2001 41
Shane Bertsch 0.61% 164 91 24
Soren Kjeldsen 9.03% 11 14 2.00% 6 1.4 Boyle Sports: 12/1, 6pl, 1/5
Steve Allan 2.48% 40 16 70
Steve Flesch 0.75% 133 81 11
Stewart Cink 13.34% 7.5 5 8
Stuart Appleby 0.33% 303 251 68
Thomas Bjorn 2.72% 37 23 1
Thongchai Jaidee 0.76% 132 67 62
Tim O'Neal 0.79% 127 176 0.20% 6 -0.2 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tim Petrovic 0.54% 185 71 41
Tom Pernice 0.02% 5000 1501 54
Tommy Gainey 2.03% 49 34 11
Woody Austin 0.01% 10000 651 61
Y.E. Yang 3.33% 30 21 24

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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