Simulation Results: Senior PGA Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva	0.10%	1000	226		138
Alan Morin	0.00%	10000	2001		69
Alastair Forsyth	0.03%	3333	351		62
Alex Cejka	1.65%	61	46		76
Andrew Marshall	0.04%	2500	151		27
Angel Cabrera	0.80%	125	81		134
Ben Crane	0.36%	278	91		2
Bernhard Langer	3.47%	29	31	0.30%	36	-0.3	Spreadex: 30/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Andrade	0.02%	5000	1001		68
Billy Mayfair	0.07%	1429	1001		36
Bo Van Pelt	0.97%	103	46		104
Bob Sowards	0.01%	10000	1501		59
Boo Weekley	0.28%	357	126		76
Brad Burns	0.00%	10000	2501		144
Brad Elder	0.00%	10000	1001		116
Brendan Jones	0.14%	714	301		87
Brennan Little	0.00%	10000	1501		116
Brett Quigley	0.09%	1111	1001		129
Brett Wetterich	0.00%	10000	2001		154
Brian Gay	0.19%	526	201		17
Brian Smock	0.00%	10000	1251		148
Brian Thornton	0.00%	10000	1251		138
Cameron Percy	4.14%	24	34	1.20%	12	-1.2	Bet365: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chad Campbell	0.01%	10000	1001		104
Charlie Wi	0.76%	132	91		104
Chris DiMarco	0.01%	10000	2501		97
Chris Riley	0.00%	10000	1001		129
Colin Montgomerie	0.04%	2500	401		41
Corey Pavin	0.00%	10000	2001		116
Craig Hocknull	0.01%	10000	1501		104
Darren Clarke	1.66%	60	67	0.20%	104	-0.2	Skybet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Darren Fichardt	2.21%	45	67	0.70%	56	-0.7	QuinnBet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Drysdale	0.01%	10000	351		62
David Roesch	0.00%	10000	1501		129
David Toms	0.79%	127	5001	0.80%	27	-0.8	BetVictor: 5000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dicky Pride	0.58%	172	226	0.10%	41	-0.1	Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug Barron	0.57%	175	151		36
Emanuele Canonica	0.00%	10000	751		76
Ernie Els	4.97%	20	19		27
Frank Bensel	0.00%	10000	2001		104
Frank Esposito	0.00%	10000	2001		138
Fred Funk	0.00%	10000	2001
Freddie Jacobson	2.14%	47	41		116
George McNeill	1.12%	89	61		22
Greg Chalmers	0.37%	270	131		27
Greg Owen	0.13%	769	111		8
Gregory Bisconti	0.00%	10000	2501		138
Grover Justice	0.00%	10000	1251		97
Harrison Frazar	0.13%	769	351		41
Heath Slocum	0.34%	294	151		76
Henrik Stenson	0.83%	120	19		47
J.J. Henry	0.04%	2500	601		104
James Kingston	0.00%	10000	601		17
Jamie Donaldson	3.68%	27	36	0.90%	87	-0.9	Spreadex: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Bohn	0.00%	10000	1251		97
Jason Caron	1.16%	86	86		12
Jay Haas	0.00%	10000	1501
Jeff Gove	0.00%	10000	1501		116
Jeff Maggert	0.11%	909	601		87
Jeff Martin	0.00%	10000	2001		73
Jeff Schmid	0.02%	5000	601		69
Jim Deiters	0.00%	10000	2501		104
Joe Durant	0.08%	1250	751		116
Johan Edfors	0.02%	5000	201		87
John Daly	0.01%	10000	1251		76
Jon Pillar	0.00%	10000	2001		75
Jose Maria Olazabal	0.02%	5000	601		51
Justin Hicks	0.11%	909	226		17
Justin Leonard	1.52%	66	36		27
K.J. Choi	1.44%	69	61		97
Katsumasa Miyamoto	0.05%	2000	501		50
Keith Horne	0.04%	2500	251		5
Ken Duke	0.02%	5000	751		151
Ken Tanigawa	0.25%	400	351		76
Kenny Perry	0.04%	2500	351		56
Kevin Sutherland	0.60%	167	161		51
Kirk Triplett	0.05%	2000	1001		129
Kyle Dobbs	0.00%	10000	2501		116
Lee Janzen	0.00%	10000	2001		76
Lionel Alexandre	0.00%	10000	751		87
Mario Tiziani	0.12%	833	501		62
Mark Hensby	0.18%	556	10001	0.20%	116	-0.2	BetVictor: 10000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mark R. Brown	0.00%	10000			153
Mark Wilson	0.24%	417	351		51
Markus Brier	0.00%	10000	1001		104
Mathew Goggin	0.20%	500	501		41
Matt Gogel	0.44%	227	161		33
Matt Schalk	0.00%	10000	2001		144
Matthew Cort	0.09%	1111	226		47
Michael Allen	0.00%	10000	2501		134
Michael Campbell	0.00%	10000	1251		144
Michael Jonzon	0.01%	10000	601		27
Michael Wright	0.47%	213	151		47
Mick Smith	0.00%	10000	1251		74
Miguel Angel Jimenez	2.52%	40	41	0.10%	8	-0.1	BetMGM: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mikael Lundberg	0.04%	2500	201		129
Mike Small	0.03%	3333	1001		134
Mike Stone	0.00%	10000	2501		87
Mike Weir	0.42%	238	201		36
Neil Thompson	0.00%	10000	2001		134
Notah Begay	0.00%	10000	601		33
Omar Uresti	0.00%	10000	1251		51
Padraig Harrington	3.68%	27	19		8
Pat Perez	0.36%	278	51		5
Paul Goydos	0.09%	1111	451		87
Paul Scaletta	0.00%	10000	2001		116
Paul Stankowski	0.42%	238	276	0.10%	76	-0.1	PaddyPower: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peter Baker	0.15%	667	176		22
Retief Goosen	2.05%	49	41		17
Ricardo Gonzalez	0.28%	357	201		97
Richard Green	1.91%	52	71	0.50%	41	-0.5	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rob Labritz	0.02%	5000	1001		62
Robert Karlsson	0.06%	1667	251		76
Rocco Mediate	0.01%	10000	1001
Rod Perry	0.00%	10000	1001		138
Rohan Allwood	0.00%	10000	2001		116
Rory Sabbatini	0.02%	5000	51		152
Ryan Armour	0.04%	2500	176		116
Ryan Malby	0.00%	10000	2001		144
Scott Dunlap	0.01%	10000	1251		148
Scott Hend	1.79%	56	56		3
Scott McCarron	0.03%	3333	601		138
Scott Parel	0.10%	1000	601		104
Shane Bertsch	0.16%	625	351		51
Shaun Micheel	0.01%	10000	1001		87
Simon Griffiths	0.03%	3333	251		76
Simon Khan	0.01%	10000	601		116
Soren Kjeldsen	2.50%	40	46	0.30%	12	-0.3	QuinnBet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephen Ames	0.93%	108	111		87
Stephen Gallacher	0.43%	233	67		148
Steve Allan	1.04%	96	81		3
Steve Flesch	0.52%	192	111		104
Steve Holmes	0.00%	10000	2001		62
Steve Webster	0.01%	10000	601		133
Steven Alker	8.11%	12	12		5
Stewart Cink	11.39%	8.8	6.5		1
Stuart Appleby	0.05%	2000	1251		69
Tag Ridings	1.02%	98	86		17
Thammanoon Sriroj	0.11%	909	251		12
Thomas Gogele	0.01%	10000	401		22
Thongchai Jaidee	0.87%	115	101		22
Tim Cantwell	0.01%	10000	2001		116
Tim Herron	0.03%	3333	1001		56
Tim O'Neal	0.35%	286	301		36
Tim Petrovic	0.22%	455	301		59
Todd Sapere	0.00%	10000	2001		97
Tom Pernice	0.01%	10000	1001		69
Tommy Gainey	2.59%	39	41	0.20%	33	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tracy Phillips	0.00%	10000	2501		62
Van Phillips	0.02%	5000			87
Vaughn Taylor	0.14%	714	101		12
Vijay Singh	1.26%	79	81		22
Warren Pineo	0.00%	10000	1501		76
Woody Austin	0.01%	10000	2501		97
Y.E. Yang	1.80%	56	56		59
Zach Johnson	12.31%	8.1	7		8

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva	0.41%	244	111		146
Alan Morin	0.01%	10000	401		76
Alastair Forsyth	0.12%	833	201		108
Alex Cejka	1.95%	51	51		76
Andrew Marshall	0.33%	303	91		28
Angel Cabrera	1.35%	74	67		153
Ben Crane	0.59%	169	71		5
Bernhard Langer	3.00%	33	41	0.60%	1	6	Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Andrade	0.25%	400	401		55
Billy Mayfair	0.41%	244	351	0.10%	11	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bo Van Pelt	1.04%	96	51		133
Bob Sowards	0.11%	909	501		76
Boo Weekley	0.52%	192	91		76
Brad Burns	0.00%	10000	501		151
Brad Elder	0.00%	10000	401		22
Brendan Jones	0.30%	333	151		55
Brennan Little	0.00%	10000	501		108
Brett Quigley	0.40%	250	351	0.10%	93	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brett Wetterich	0.03%	3333	401		146
Brian Gay	0.44%	227	126		1
Brian Smock	0.04%	2500	401		133
Brian Thornton	0.00%	10000	401		133
Cameron Percy	2.46%	41	41		28
Chad Campbell	0.06%	1667	351		146
Charlie Wi	0.92%	109	81		119
Chris DiMarco	0.12%	833	401		39
Chris Riley	0.03%	3333	401		108
Colin Montgomerie	0.27%	370	151		93
Corey Pavin	0.05%	2000	501		93
Craig Hocknull	0.11%	909	501		133
Darren Clarke	1.47%	68	61		76
Darren Fichardt	2.20%	45	51	0.20%	11	-0.2	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Drysdale	0.10%	1000	201		93
David Roesch	0.00%	10000	501		133
David Toms	0.94%	106	61		76
Dicky Pride	0.75%	133	126		119
Doug Barron	0.76%	132	101		39
Emanuele Canonica	0.08%	1250	351		55
Ernie Els	3.52%	28	34	0.60%	11	-0.6	Ladbrokes: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Frank Bensel	0.00%	10000	501		108
Frank Esposito	0.02%	5000	501		119
Fred Funk	0.01%	10000	501
Freddie Jacobson	1.62%	62	51		119
George McNeill	1.53%	65	56		76
Greg Chalmers	0.78%	128	91		8
Greg Owen	0.46%	217	81		11
Gregory Bisconti	0.00%	10000	401		133
Grover Justice	0.00%	10000	401		119
Harrison Frazar	0.52%	192	201		39
Heath Slocum	0.56%	179	101		76
Henrik Stenson	0.92%	109	31		39
J.J. Henry	0.26%	385	301		146
James Kingston	0.07%	1429	251		93
Jamie Donaldson	2.99%	33	41	0.60%	76	-0.6	Boyle Sports: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jason Bohn	0.02%	5000	351		39
Jason Caron	1.04%	96	71		55
Jay Haas	0.06%	1667	401
Jeff Gove	0.08%	1250	501		119
Jeff Maggert	0.40%	250	301	0.10%	93	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeff Martin	0.04%	2500	501		76
Jeff Schmid	0.16%	625	251		28
Jim Deiters	0.00%	10000	501		93
Joe Durant	0.39%	256	301	0.10%	39	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Johan Edfors	0.11%	909	101		133
John Daly	0.10%	1000	351		55
Jon Pillar	0.00%	10000	501		39
Jose Maria Olazabal	0.17%	588	251		8
Justin Hicks	0.45%	222	126		11
Justin Leonard	1.75%	57	46		22
K.J. Choi	1.79%	56	56		39
Katsumasa Miyamoto	0.27%	370	251		93
Keith Horne	0.18%	556	126		11
Ken Duke	0.23%	435	351		133
Ken Tanigawa	0.52%	192	151		39
Kenny Perry	0.27%	370	201		28
Kevin Sutherland	1.10%	91	101	0.10%	39	-0.1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kirk Triplett	0.19%	526	351		119
Kyle Dobbs	0.00%	10000	501		55
Lee Janzen	0.03%	3333	501		119
Lionel Alexandre	0.09%	1111	301		93
Mario Tiziani	0.50%	200	301	0.20%	55	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mark Hensby	0.59%	169	151		108
Mark R. Brown	0.06%	1667	401		55
Mark Wilson	0.69%	145	201	0.20%	28	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Markus Brier	0.10%	1000	351		28
Mathew Goggin	0.63%	159	251	0.20%	11	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt Gogel	0.73%	137	101		28
Matt Schalk	0.00%	10000	501		133
Matthew Cort	0.28%	357	126		28
Michael Allen	0.06%	1667	501		133
Michael Campbell	0.05%	2000	351		133
Michael Jonzon	0.12%	833	251		55
Michael Wright	0.93%	108	101		55
Mick Smith	0.03%	3333	401		93
Miguel Angel Jimenez	2.29%	44	51	0.30%	1	3.375	VirginBet: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mikael Lundberg	0.30%	333	101		93
Mike Small	0.15%	667	401		146
Mike Stone	0.00%	10000	401		93
Mike Weir	0.69%	145	111		76
Neil Thompson	0.00%	10000	501		39
Notah Begay	0.06%	1667	351		39
Omar Uresti	0.03%	3333	401		28
Padraig Harrington	3.02%	33	29		8
Pat Perez	0.59%	169	56		11
Paul Goydos	0.44%	227	251		55
Paul Scaletta	0.00%	10000	401		119
Paul Stankowski	0.89%	112	151	0.20%	55	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Peter Baker	0.47%	213	101		55
Retief Goosen	2.11%	47	51	0.20%	5	0.53333333333333	VirginBet: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ricardo Gonzalez	0.61%	164	101		76
Richard Green	1.51%	66	67		119
Rob Labritz	0.24%	417	351		55
Robert Karlsson	0.29%	345	151		22
Rocco Mediate	0.19%	526	351
Rod Perry	0.01%	10000	351		153
Rohan Allwood	0.00%	10000	501		93
Rory Sabbatini	0.17%	588	51		76
Ryan Armour	0.25%	400	101		133
Ryan Malby	0.01%	10000	501		119
Scott Dunlap	0.10%	1000	401		155
Scott Hend	2.02%	50	56	0.20%	11	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott McCarron	0.21%	476	301		108
Scott Parel	0.31%	323	301		108
Shane Bertsch	0.43%	233	201		55
Shaun Micheel	0.17%	588	401		39
Simon Griffiths	0.24%	417	151		119
Simon Khan	0.13%	769	351		119
Soren Kjeldsen	2.33%	43	51	0.40%	39	-0.4	Ladbrokes: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephen Ames	1.33%	75	91	0.20%	55	-0.2	VirginBet: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Stephen Gallacher	0.90%	111	56		108
Steve Allan	1.42%	70	71		1
Steve Flesch	0.95%	105	81		108
Steve Holmes	0.01%	10000	401		76
Steve Webster	0.10%	1000	301		133
Steven Alker	4.81%	21	21	0.10%	108	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 20/1, 6pl, 1/5
Stewart Cink	4.71%	21	15		11
Stuart Appleby	0.31%	323	351		55
Tag Ridings	1.10%	91	71		22
Thammanoon Sriroj	0.48%	208	126		5
Thomas Gogele	0.09%	1111	151		55
Thongchai Jaidee	1.40%	71	76	0.10%	28	-0.1	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tim Cantwell	0.12%	833	351		108
Tim Herron	0.27%	370	351		22
Tim O'Neal	0.55%	182	151		76
Tim Petrovic	0.45%	222	151		28
Todd Sapere	0.00%	10000	501		76
Tom Pernice	0.22%	455	401		11
Tommy Gainey	2.51%	40	51	0.60%	119	-0.6	Ladbrokes: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tracy Phillips	0.05%	2000	501		93
Van Phillips	0.14%	714	351		93
Vaughn Taylor	0.35%	286	81		76
Vijay Singh	1.21%	83	67		22
Warren Pineo	0.00%	10000	501		55
Woody Austin	0.11%	909	501		55
Y.E. Yang	2.09%	48	56	0.30%	39	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach Johnson	5.01%	20	17		55

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Cameron Percy	4.14%	24	34	1.20%	12	-2	Bet365: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Jamie Donaldson	3.68%	27	36	0.90%	87	-2	Spreadex: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: David Toms	0.79%	127	5001	0.80%	27	-2	BetVictor: 5000/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Ernie Els	3.52%	28	34	0.60%	11	-1	Ladbrokes: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Bernhard Langer	3.00%	33	41	0.60%	1	10	Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jamie Donaldson	2.99%	33	41	0.60%	76	-1	Boyle Sports: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Tommy Gainey	2.51%	40	51	0.60%	119	-1	Ladbrokes: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Soren Kjeldsen	2.33%	43	51	0.40%	39	-1	Ladbrokes: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Miguel Angel Jimenez	2.29%	44	51	0.30%	1	11.25	VirginBet: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.