Simulation Results: Senior PGA Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva 0.26% 385 151 25
Alan Morin 0.00% 10000 2501 92
Alex Cejka 2.75% 36 34 46
Andre Stolz 0.00% 10000 1001 55
Andrew Marshall 0.10% 1000 351 40
Angel Cabrera 2.21% 45 23 1
Billy Andrade 0.26% 385 301 66
Billy Mayfair 0.11% 909 601 116
Birk Nelson 0.00% 10000 1001 70
Bo Van Pelt 0.77% 130 67 84
Bob Estes 0.34% 294 501 0.10% 111 -0.1 Skybet: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bob Sowards 0.04% 2500 2001 55
Boo Weekley 0.26% 385 251 72
Bradley Dredge 0.04% 2500 201 35
Brendan Jones 0.18% 556 501 40
Brennan Little 0.00% 10000 2501 142
Brett Quigley 0.60% 167 151 84
Brett Wetterich 0.00% 10000 2501 101
Brian Davis 0.03% 3333 351 92
Brian Gay 0.36% 278 401 0.10% 61 -0.1 BetVictor: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brian Varsey 0.00% 10000 153
Cameron Percy 1.87% 53 86 0.70% 7 -0.7 Priced Up: 85/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chad Campbell 0.07% 1429 1001 72
Charlie Wi 0.97% 103 81 154
Chris DiMarco 0.04% 2500 501 148
Chris Riley 0.00% 10000 401 84
Clark Dennis 0.01% 10000 501 84
Colin Montgomerie 0.41% 244 276 58
Darren Clarke 1.75% 57 67 0.30% 11 -0.3 Unibet: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Darren Fichardt 0.75% 133 34 8
David Bransdon 0.13% 769 501 92
David Carr 0.00% 10000 2501 92
David Duval 0.06% 1667 501 21
David Hutsell 0.00% 10000 2501 137
David Toms 0.31% 323 201 61
Derek Stendahl 0.00% 10000 2501 148
Dick Mast 0.00% 10000 2001 130
Dicky Pride 0.39% 256 401 0.10% 101 -0.1 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Duffy Waldorf 0.01% 10000 72
Eric Bogar 0.00% 10000 2501 151
Ernie Els 5.92% 17 13 35
Felipe Aguilar 0.38% 263 351 0.10% 46 -0.1 Unibet: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Frank Bensel 0.00% 10000 2501 130
Fred Funk 0.00% 10000 3001 154
Freddie Jacobson 2.00% 50 67 0.50% 72 -0.5 Skybet: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Gene Sauers 0.26% 385 501 0.10% 72 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Greg Owen 0.05% 2000 201 14
Gregory Bisconti 0.00% 10000 2501 68
Greig Hutcheon 0.03% 3333 1001 111
Harrison Frazar 0.35% 286 301 51
Heath Slocum 0.21% 476 401 84
Hiroyuki Fujita 0.25% 400 751 0.10% 101 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
J.J. Henry 0.19% 526 751 0.10% 84 -0.1 William Hill: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
James Kingston 0.08% 1250 151 120
Jarmo Sandelin 0.01% 10000 1001 124
Jason Caron 0.68% 147 151 4
Jay Haas 0.02% 5000 1001 84
Jeff Gove 0.00% 10000 1001 64
Jeff Maggert 0.05% 2000 1001 65
Jeff Schmid 0.04% 2500 751 58
Jerry Kelly 4.94% 20 17 101
Jim Carter 0.00% 10000 1501 124
Joakim Haeggman 0.04% 2500 501 72
Joe Durant 0.42% 238 151 61
Jose Maria Olazabal 0.00% 10000 2501 72
Judd Gibb 0.00% 10000 2501 151
Justin Leonard 0.70% 143 101 14
Katsumasa Miyamoto 0.14% 714 1001 101
Keith Horne 0.21% 476 151 28
Ken Duke 0.17% 588 501 101
Ken Tanigawa 0.56% 179 176 51
Kevin Sutherland 0.43% 233 251 101
Kirk Triplett 0.05% 2000 1501 35
Lee Janzen 0.03% 3333 1501 130
Lee Westwood 1.59% 63 26 25
Mario Tiziani 0.23% 435 251 44
Mark Hensby 1.07% 93 126 0.30% 21 -0.3 Boyle Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mark Walker 0.07% 1429 401 46
Mark Wilson 0.35% 286 401 0.10% 46 -0.1 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt Gogel 0.35% 286 251 25
Michael Allen 0.00% 10000 1001 44
Michael Campbell 0.00% 10000 1001 137
Michael Crowley 0.00% 10000 2501 142
Michael Wright 0.49% 204 111 111
Mick Smith 0.00% 10000 2501 67
Miguel Angel Jimenez 4.02% 25 19 11
Mikael Lundberg 0.04% 2500 301 101
Mike Fergin 0.00% 10000 2501 124
Mike Stone 0.00% 10000 2501 142
Mike Weir 0.68% 147 151 92
Mitch Lowe 0.00% 10000 2501 92
Notah Begay 0.01% 10000 1001 116
Omar Uresti 0.01% 10000 1001 116
Padraig Harrington 5.46% 18 13 2
Patrik Sjoland 0.02% 5000 1001 55
Paul Broadhurst 0.43% 233 201 28
Paul Claxton 0.00% 10000 2501 101
Paul Goydos 0.70% 143 161 0.10% 72 -0.1 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Stankowski 0.70% 143 201 0.20% 111 -0.2 BetVictor: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peter Baker 0.21% 476 151 35
Phillip Archer 0.01% 10000 751 21
Retief Goosen 1.15% 87 41 4
Ricardo Gonzalez 0.62% 161 151 28
Rich Beem 0.00% 10000 1001 130
Richard Bland 12.54% 8 5.5 14
Richard Green 1.75% 57 41 40
Rob Labritz 0.38% 263 501 0.20% 120 -0.2 BetVictor: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robert Coles 0.05% 2000 401 120
Robert Karlsson 0.46% 217 201 14
Robert Russell 0.00% 10000 2501 124
Rod Pampling 0.67% 149 201 0.20% 84 -0.2 BetVictor: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rod Perry 0.00% 10000 2501 142
Ryan Malby 0.00% 10000 2501 137
Scott Dunlap 0.04% 2500 1001 116
Scott Hend 1.49% 67 61 19
Scott Hunter 0.00% 10000 2501 68
Scott McCarron 0.04% 2500 751 120
Scott Parel 0.17% 588 301 35
Scott Verplank 0.00% 10000 2501 130
Sean McCarty 0.00% 10000 2501 137
Shane Bertsch 0.29% 345 301 51
Shaun Micheel 0.05% 2000 1001 72
Shingo Katayama 0.22% 455 151 51
Simon Griffiths 0.24% 417 151 40
Simon Khan 0.08% 1250 251 28
Soren Kjeldsen 1.12% 89 34 8
Stephen Ames 2.42% 41 36 71
Stephen Dodd 0.00% 10000 2501 154
Stephen Gallacher 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 28 -0.1 Unibet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Steve Flesch 0.45% 222 1001 0.40% 19 -0.4 Paddy Power: 1000/1, 6pl, 1/5
Steve Holmes 0.01% 10000 2001 150
Steve Schneiter 0.00% 10000 2501 92
Steve Stricker 5.33% 19 17 28
Steven Alker 7.11% 14 13 14
Stewart Cink 7.71% 13 10 4
Stuart Appleby 0.17% 588 301 92
Tag Ridings 0.90% 111 151 0.20% 72 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Takashi Kanemoto 0.00% 10000 2001 130
Thomas Bjorn 1.12% 89 67 2
Thomas Gogele 0.06% 1667 401 72
Thongchai Jaidee 0.93% 108 126 0.10% 101 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tim Cantwell 0.00% 10000 2501 58
Tim Fleming 0.00% 10000 2501 130
Tim O'Neal 0.61% 164 126 21
Tim Petrovic 0.28% 357 201 34
Tim Weinhart 0.00% 10000 2501 111
Todd Hamilton 0.00% 10000 2501 137
Todd Sapere 0.00% 10000 2501 142
Tom Lehman 0.02% 5000 1501 124
Tom Pernice 0.01% 10000 124
Tom Walters 0.00% 10000 2501 142
Tracy Phillips 0.02% 5000 1001 92
Van Phillips 0.01% 10000 1501 72
Vijay Singh 1.18% 85 67 8
Woody Austin 0.03% 3333 46
Y.E. Yang 0.00% 10000 34 11

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


© Copyright 1999-2025 Tour-Tips.com.
All rights reserved.

This Week's Updates