Simulation Results: Sanford International

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Alex Cejka 5.18% 19 21 0.40% 15 -0.4 Boyle Sports: 20/1, 6pl, 1/5
Angel Cabrera 1.48% 68 29 15
Bernhard Langer 2.60% 38 56 0.80% 15 -0.8 Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Andrade 0.17% 588 251 43
Bo Van Pelt 0.47% 213 91 2
Bob Estes 0.31% 323 226 21
Boo Weekley 0.26% 385 91 6
Brandt Jobe 0.10% 1000 151 21
Brendan Jones 0.09% 1111 501 58
Brett Quigley 0.44% 227 141 28
Brian Gay 0.36% 278 301 21
Chad Campbell 0.06% 1667 401 28
Charlie Wi 0.93% 108 67 72
Chris DiMarco 0.02% 5000 1001 48
Corey Pavin 0.01% 10000 1501 72
Darren Clarke 3.03% 33 26 3
David Bransdon 0.11% 909 301 28
David Duval 0.05% 2000 251 58
Dicky Pride 0.48% 208 151 15
Doug Barron 0.78% 128 67 10
Duffy Waldorf 0.01% 10000 2001 38
Ernie Els 9.16% 11 12 0.90% 3 0.7875 Bet365: 11/1, 5pl, 1/4
Felipe Aguilar 0.17% 588 351 38
Freddie Jacobson 2.21% 45 36 8
Greg Chalmers 1.30% 77 46 48
Harrison Frazar 0.60% 167 71 58
Heath Slocum 0.21% 476 91 34
Hiroyuki Fujita 0.10% 1000 401 58
Jason Caron 2.01% 50 41 21
Jeff Maggert 0.06% 1667 501 48
Jerry Kelly 4.61% 22 23 0.30% 8 -0.3 Spreadex: 22/1, 5pl, 1/5
Joe Durant 0.33% 303 151 38
John Daly 0.00% 10000 1251 78
John Rollins 0.33% 303 141 43
John Senden 0.00% 10000 1501 48
K.J. Choi 0.76% 132 56 43
Ken Duke 0.22% 455 201 58
Ken Tanigawa 0.54% 185 276 0.20% 48 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kirk Triplett 0.02% 5000 751 34
Mario Tiziani 0.40% 250 151 38
Mark Hensby 0.84% 119 46 10
Mark Walker 0.10% 1000 401 38
Mark Wilson 0.10% 1000 226 43
Mathew Goggin 0.01% 10000 201 28
Michael Allen 0.00% 10000 1001 66
Michael Wright 0.52% 192 81 15
Miguel Angel Jimenez 8.46% 12 13 0.80% 5 0.8 Bet365: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mike Weir 0.15% 667 301 58
Paul Broadhurst 0.29% 345 301 48
Paul Goydos 0.52% 192 141 43
Paul Stankowski 1.12% 89 46 15
Retief Goosen 2.21% 45 34 1
Ricardo Gonzalez 1.14% 88 56 28
Richard Green 2.83% 35 26 48
Robert Karlsson 0.56% 179 101 21
Rocco Mediate 0.11% 909 401 77
Rod Pampling 0.48% 208 276 0.10% 28 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Scott Dunlap 0.02% 5000 1251 58
Scott McCarron 0.03% 3333 501 69
Scott Parel 0.35% 286 301 48
Shane Bertsch 0.42% 238 91 34
Soren Kjeldsen 6.34% 16 13 10
Stephen Ames 0.89% 112 91 21
Steve Allan 1.44% 69 26 10
Steve Flesch 1.08% 93 34 34
Steven Alker 10.83% 9.2 9 6
Stewart Cink 10.36% 9.7 8
Stuart Appleby 0.20% 500 276 21
Tag Ridings 1.09% 92 126 0.30% 10 -0.3 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Bjorn 3.28% 30 17 66
Thongchai Jaidee 0.54% 185 111 58
Tim Herron 0.02% 5000 501 66
Tim O'Neal 0.79% 127 81 72
Tim Petrovic 0.51% 196 91 69
Tom Lehman 0.00% 10000 1501 75
Tom Pernice 0.01% 10000 2001 48
Woody Austin 0.02% 5000 751 76
Y.E. Yang 2.43% 41 41 71

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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