Simulation Results: SAS Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Alex Cejka 3.12% 32 31 1
Angel Cabrera 2.10% 48 26 17
Bernhard Langer 3.81% 26 34 0.90% 7 -0.9 Boyle Sports: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
Billy Andrade 0.19% 526 301 77
Bo Van Pelt 0.49% 204 86 17
Bob Estes 0.32% 313 226
Boo Weekley 0.40% 250 56 21
Brandt Jobe 0.15% 667 176 61
Brendan Jones 0.19% 526 401 7
Brett Quigley 0.55% 182 141 46
Brian Gay 0.43% 233 401 0.20% 63 -0.2 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Percy 3.93% 25 15 7
Chad Campbell 0.20% 500 201 13
Charlie Wi 0.48% 208 151 28
Chris DiMarco 0.04% 2500 2501 66
Colin Montgomerie 0.33% 303 226 28
Darren Clarke 3.11% 32 29 13
David Bransdon 0.23% 435 351 63
David Duval 0.18% 556 176 40
David Toms 0.50% 200 251 0.10% 48 -0.1 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Davis Love 0.01% 10000 1001 66
Dicky Pride 0.67% 149 131 51
Doug Barron 1.07% 93 56 54
Duffy Waldorf 0.01% 10000 2501 69
Eric Axley 0.00% 10000 1001 54
Ernie Els 5.97% 17 17 0.10% 2 0.11 Boyle Sports: 16/1, 6pl, 1/5
Felipe Aguilar 0.18% 556 401 51
Freddie Jacobson 1.89% 53 41 17
Greg Chalmers 1.00% 100 61 40
Heath Slocum 0.41% 244 101 48
Hiroyuki Fujita 0.12% 833 751 69
Jarmo Sandelin 0.00% 10000 401 17
Jason Caron 1.36% 74 67 13
Jeff Maggert 0.08% 1250 1001 54
Jerry Kelly 4.08% 25 23 48
Joe Durant 0.29% 345 301 28
John Senden 0.01% 10000 2501 54
K.J. Choi 0.91% 110 91 40
Ken Duke 0.20% 500 276 72
Ken Tanigawa 0.44% 227 301 0.10% 7 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kevin Sutherland 0.44% 227 71 40
Kirk Triplett 0.12% 833 751 61
Mario Tiziani 0.49% 204 176 40
Mark Walker 0.19% 526 401 28
Mark Wilson 0.35% 286 201 54
Mathew Goggin 0.38% 263 226 40
Matt Gogel 0.87% 115 46 21
Michael Wright 0.58% 172 101 21
Miguel Angel Jimenez 5.05% 20 17 7
Mike Weir 0.42% 238 151 78
Neal Lancaster 0.00% 10000 2501 76
Padraig Harrington 5.04% 20 17 7
Paul Goydos 0.49% 204 226 72
Paul Stankowski 0.94% 106 67 28
Retief Goosen 2.61% 38 21 21
Ricardo Gonzalez 0.70% 143 101 13
Robert Karlsson 0.65% 154 101 4
Rocco Mediate 0.07% 1429 501 72
Rod Pampling 0.63% 159 201 0.10% 66 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Dunlap 0.08% 1250 1501 54
Scott McCarron 0.04% 2500 1501 69
Shane Bertsch 0.37% 270 176 54
Soren Kjeldsen 4.50% 22 19 28
Stephen Ames 1.29% 78 91 0.20% 21 -0.2 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steve Allan 1.42% 70 41 28
Steve Flesch 1.21% 83 51 4
Steven Alker 9.71% 10 11 0.70% 3 0.525 Bet365: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stewart Cink 7.58% 13 11 28
Stuart Appleby 0.38% 263 126 51
Tag Ridings 1.02% 98 71 46
Thomas Bjorn 2.19% 46 29 28
Thongchai Jaidee 0.84% 119 91 21
Tim O'Neal 0.59% 169 131 4
Tim Petrovic 0.34% 294 226 28
Tom Pernice 0.02% 5000 2501 28
Tommy Gainey 4.49% 22 19 21
Vijay Singh 2.58% 39 29
Y.E. Yang 1.92% 52 46 28

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
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Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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