Simulation Results: Rogers Charity Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Bo Van Pelt 1.17% 85 51 64
Bob Estes 0.87% 115 201 0.40% 70 -0.4 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Boo Weekley 0.98% 102 81 13
Brandt Jobe 0.48% 208 111 54
Brendan Jones 0.64% 156 276 0.30% 38 -0.3 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brett Quigley 0.73% 137 176 0.20% 18 -0.2 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brian Gay 0.77% 130 501 0.60% 30 -0.6 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Percy 3.06% 33 19 18
Chad Campbell 0.31% 323 401 0.10% 42 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charlie Wi 1.41% 71 126 0.60% 4 9.075 BetVictor: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chris DiMarco 0.13% 769 601 34
Corey Pavin 0.10% 1000 1001 54
Darren Clarke 3.44% 29 19 18
David Bransdon 0.47% 213 276 0.10% 48 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Duval 0.42% 238 126 48
Dicky Pride 0.82% 122 151 0.20% 27 -0.2 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug Barron 1.95% 51 41 24
Duffy Waldorf 0.09% 1111 2001 63
Felipe Aguilar 1.00% 100 126 0.20% 38 -0.2 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fred Funk 0.03% 3333 2001
Freddie Jacobson 2.67% 37 23 9
Gene Sauers 0.38% 263 301 48
Glen Day 0.22% 455 401 54
Gordon Burns 0.42% 238 301 0.10% 48 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Greg Chalmers 2.37% 42 34 24
Harrison Frazar 1.27% 79 71 24
Heath Slocum 0.45% 222 201 48
Hiroyuki Fujita 0.37% 270 501 0.20% 27 -0.2 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
J.J. Henry 1.48% 68 161 0.90% 18 -0.9 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Bohn 0.03% 3333 1001 70
Jason Caron 2.58% 39 23 11
Jeff Maggert 0.34% 294 401 0.10% 60 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jerry Kelly 4.20% 24 17 13
John Huston 0.16% 625 401 42
John Rollins 0.80% 125 126 34
John Senden 0.05% 2000 1251 74
Ken Duke 0.88% 114 81 13
Ken Tanigawa 1.34% 75 111 0.40% 27 -0.4 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kirk Triplett 0.43% 233 251 78
Lee Janzen 0.10% 1000 1001 77
Mario Tiziani 1.07% 93 111 0.20% 34 -0.2 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mark Hensby 1.15% 87 51 5
Mark Walker 0.40% 250 301 0.10% 30 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mark Wilson 0.86% 116 201 0.40% 60 -0.4 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Gogel 1.62% 62 67 0.10% 5 0.11875 Ladbrokes: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Jonzon 0.10% 1000 501 54
Michael Wright 1.33% 75 31 18
Miguel Angel Jimenez 5.41% 18 13 3
Mike Weir 0.83% 120 226 0.40% 42 -0.4 Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/5
Notah Begay 0.24% 417 301 42
Olin Browne 0.06% 1667 1001 64
Padraig Harrington 6.82% 15 7 68
Paul Goydos 1.72% 58 67 0.20% 68 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Stankowski 1.48% 68 76 0.20% 9 -0.2 Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ricardo Gonzalez 1.57% 64 46 2
Richard Green 2.85% 35 34 1
Rob Labritz 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 64 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robert Karlsson 0.85% 118 141 0.10% 75 -0.1 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Dunlap 0.26% 385 401 72
Scott McCarron 0.28% 357 351 75
Scott Parel 0.70% 143 301 0.40% 54 -0.4 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Verplank 0.02% 5000 751 72
Shane Bertsch 1.13% 88 126 0.30% 18 -0.3 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Soren Kjeldsen 5.80% 17 15 11
Stephen Ames 2.26% 44 34 60
Steven Alker 7.77% 13 8 5
Stuart Appleby 0.63% 159 276 0.30% 13 -0.3 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tag Ridings 1.52% 66 126 0.70% 13 -0.7 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thongchai Jaidee 1.29% 78 67 48
Tim O'Neal 1.39% 72 151 0.70% 54 -0.7 BetVictor: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tim Petrovic 1.49% 67 61 34
Tom Lehman 0.05% 2000 1001
Tom Pernice 0.14% 714 1501 0.10% 30 -0.1 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tommy Gainey 1.86% 54 41 5
Vijay Singh 2.20% 45 71 0.80% 30 -0.8 BetVictor: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wes Martin 0.02% 5000 151 38
Woody Austin 0.10% 1000 601 38
Y.E. Yang 2.81% 36 21 42

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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