Simulation Results: Pure Insurance Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Alex Cejka 5.18% 19 19 34
Angel Cabrera 2.15% 47 26 13
Billy Andrade 0.19% 526 251 52
Bo Van Pelt 1.30% 77 41 45
Boo Weekley 0.45% 222 61 77
Brendan Jones 0.15% 667 751 49
Brian Gay 0.54% 185 151 58
Cameron Percy 4.03% 25 17 11
Chad Campbell 0.16% 625 276 38
Charlie Wi 0.86% 116 81 74
Chris DiMarco 0.02% 5000 1001 50
David Bransdon 0.13% 769 276 38
David Duval 0.09% 1111 401 58
David Frost 0.00% 10000 2501 70
David Morland 0.00% 10000 1001 58
Dicky Pride 0.73% 137 131 16
Doug Barron 1.11% 90 41 1
Duffy Waldorf 0.01% 10000 2501 74
Ernie Els 8.74% 11 10 16
Felipe Aguilar 0.26% 385 276 58
Fred Couples 0.85% 118 71 5
Freddie Jacobson 3.03% 33 23 16
Glen Day 0.06% 1667 401 47
Greg Chalmers 1.42% 70 61 23
Harrison Frazar 0.50% 200 111 70
Heath Slocum 0.32% 313 126 23
Hiroyuki Fujita 0.15% 667 401 52
J.J. Henry 0.52% 192 351 0.20% 63 -0.2 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Caron 2.46% 41 36 52
Jay Haas 0.03% 3333 751 45
Jeff Maggert 0.07% 1429 751 23
Jerry Kelly 4.59% 22 17 23
Joe Durant 0.50% 200 201 74
John Huston 0.02% 5000 751 70
John Rollins 0.52% 192 251 0.10% 29 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/5
John Senden 0.00% 10000 1001 38
Justin Leonard 3.64% 27 16 5
K.J. Choi 1.37% 73 51 38
Ken Duke 0.22% 455 176 38
Ken Tanigawa 0.60% 167 301 0.30% 34 -0.3 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kirk Triplett 0.05% 2000 251 23
Lee Janzen 0.01% 10000 1001 63
Mario Tiziani 0.46% 217 111 29
Mark Walker 0.13% 769 501 58
Mark Wilson 0.21% 476 301 9
Mathew Goggin 0.40% 250 201 29
Matt Gogel 0.69% 145 61 23
Michael Allen 0.01% 10000 1501 78
Michael Wright 0.63% 159 81 29
Mike Weir 0.30% 333 276 9
Olin Browne 0.01% 10000 1501 70
Paul Broadhurst 0.33% 303 91 20
Paul Goydos 0.68% 147 131 80
Paul Stankowski 1.28% 78 41 13
Retief Goosen 3.47% 29 23 3
Ricardo Gonzalez 1.35% 74 56 52
Robert Karlsson 0.55% 182 101 52
Rocco Mediate 0.06% 1667 351 51
Rod Pampling 0.79% 127 176 0.20% 44 -0.2 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Russ Cochran 0.00% 10000 2501 63
Scott Dunlap 0.02% 5000 1001 34
Scott McCarron 0.03% 3333 751 63
Scott Verplank 0.00% 10000 601 63
Shane Bertsch 0.49% 204 111 47
Stephen Ames 1.12% 89 67 20
Steve Allan 1.59% 63 26 11
Steve Flesch 0.82% 122 67 20
Steven Alker 13.67% 7.3 9 2.90% 3 1.26875 Star Sports: 7.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stewart Cink 13.08% 7.6 9 2.20% 5 -1.375 Bet365: 8/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stuart Appleby 0.27% 370 201 13
Thomas Bjorn 2.98% 34 23 63
Thongchai Jaidee 0.83% 120 71 29
Tim O'Neal 0.62% 161 111 34
Tim Petrovic 0.35% 286 131 52
Tom Lehman 0.01% 10000 2001 79
Tom Pernice 0.02% 5000 2001 38
Tommy Gainey 2.07% 48 36 16
Vijay Singh 1.87% 53 36 2
Woody Austin 0.01% 10000 1001 63
Y.E. Yang 1.84% 54 51 5

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


© Copyright 1999-2025 Tour-Tips.com.
All rights reserved.

This Week's Updates