Simulation Results: Principal Charity Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Alex Cejka 3.26% 31 26 38
Angel Cabrera 3.52% 28 12 24
Bernhard Langer 4.60% 22 17 11
Billy Mayfair 0.21% 476 501 60
Bo Van Pelt 0.59% 169 51 21
Boo Weekley 0.46% 217 201 24
Brandt Jobe 0.19% 526 301 66
Brendan Jones 0.68% 147 176 0.10% 69 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brett Quigley 1.00% 100 91 60
Brian Gay 0.61% 164 226 0.20% 72 -0.2 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Percy 3.33% 30 34 0.40% 2 1.45 Ladbrokes: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chad Campbell 0.18% 556 301 24
Chris DiMarco 0.08% 1250 401 15
Corey Pavin 0.03% 3333 1251 66
Darren Clarke 2.66% 38 34 32
David Bransdon 0.33% 303 301 32
David Frost 0.02% 5000 2501 71
David Toms 0.77% 130 151 0.10% 62 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug Barron 1.32% 76 51 32
Duffy Waldorf 0.09% 1111 1251 69
Ernie Els 7.11% 14 11 6
Felipe Aguilar 0.90% 111 126 0.10% 18 -0.1 VBet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fred Couples 2.51% 40 41 0.10% 21 -0.1 Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Freddie Jacobson 2.27% 44 51 0.30% 5 1.725 Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Greg Chalmers 1.54% 65 51 24
Harrison Frazar 0.69% 145 201 0.20% 38 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Heath Slocum 0.48% 208 201 45
Hiroyuki Fujita 0.47% 213 351 0.20% 38 -0.2 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
J.J. Henry 0.49% 204 351 0.20% 24 -0.2 VBet: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jay Haas 0.19% 526 751 0.10% 51 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeff Maggert 0.19% 526 501 38
Jeff Schmid 0.22% 455 251 18
John Huston 0.06% 1667 1001 75
John Senden 0.02% 5000 1251 72
Jose Maria Olazabal 0.04% 2500 2001 51
K.J. Choi 1.72% 58 41 24
Keith Horne 0.64% 156 91 11
Ken Duke 0.37% 270 301 51
Ken Tanigawa 1.31% 76 111 0.40% 32 -0.4 BetVictor: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kenny Perry 0.35% 286 251 66
Kevin Sutherland 0.93% 108 151 0.30% 4 4.35 Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Kirk Triplett 0.30% 333 351 45
Lee Janzen 0.07% 1429 1001 62
Mario Tiziani 0.52% 192 176 51
Mark Hensby 1.99% 50 51 8
Mark Walker 0.30% 333 251 45
Mark Wilson 0.85% 118 201 0.40% 38 -0.4 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Gogel 0.79% 127 126 72
Michael Wright 0.73% 137 81 6
Miguel Angel Jimenez 5.63% 18 15 1
Notah Begay 0.04% 2500 751 62
Padraig Harrington 7.25% 14 7 38
Paul Broadhurst 0.82% 122 111 51
Paul Goydos 1.25% 80 126 0.50% 45 -0.5 BetVictor: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Stankowski 0.96% 104 126 0.20% 45 -0.2 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Retief Goosen 2.47% 40 19 11
Ricardo Gonzalez 1.26% 79 67 8
Richard Green 2.71% 37 31 62
Robert Karlsson 1.18% 85 61 24
Russ Cochran 0.00% 10000 1001 77
Scott McCarron 0.12% 833 501 8
Scott Parel 0.49% 204 176 24
Scott Verplank 0.01% 10000 1501 78
Shane Bertsch 0.56% 179 151 51
Soren Kjeldsen 4.06% 25 15 2
Stephen Ames 3.10% 32 23
Steve Allan 1.30% 77 67 18
Steve Flesch 1.56% 64 81 0.30% 51 -0.3 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tag Ridings 1.34% 75 101 0.40% 45 -0.4 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Bjorn 2.65% 38 21 15
Thongchai Jaidee 1.71% 58 67 0.20% 11 -0.2 Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tim Herron 0.10% 1000 351 51
Tim O'Neal 1.08% 93 67 38
Tim Petrovic 0.74% 135 111 32
Tom Lehman 0.05% 2000 1001 51
Tom Pernice 0.04% 2500 1001 21
Vijay Singh 2.66% 38 31 32
Woody Austin 0.14% 714 501 76
Y.E. Yang 2.77% 36 21 15

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


© Copyright 1999-2025 Tour-Tips.com.
All rights reserved.

This Week's Updates