Simulation Results: Principal Charity Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	2.73%	37	26		22
Angel Cabrera	0.24%	417	101		55
Ben Crane	3.08%	32	23		36
Bernhard Langer	3.39%	29	41	1.00%	55	-1	Boyle Sports: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Billy Mayfair	0.01%	10000	601		52
Bo Van Pelt	0.69%	145	51		62
Bob Estes	0.00%	10000	1001		36
Boo Weekley	0.40%	250	61		22
Brandt Jobe	0.01%	10000	201		22
Brett Quigley	0.03%	3333	501		4
Brian Gay	0.15%	667	151		22
Cameron Percy	3.49%	29	26		22
Chad Campbell	0.00%	10000	401		40
Chris DiMarco	0.00%	10000	1001		40
Darren Clarke	1.38%	72	41		12
Darren Fichardt	0.78%	128	34		6
David Duval	0.04%	2500	151		22
David Frost	0.00%	10000	2501		72
David Toms	0.31%	323	71		18
Dicky Pride	0.65%	154	126		10
Doug Barron	0.69%	145	51		18
Ernie Els	8.69%	12	13	1.10%	12	-1.1	Bet365: 11/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fred Funk	0.00%	10000	2001		75
George McNeill	6.75%	15	23	2.50%	6	-2.5	William Hill: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Greg Chalmers	0.13%	769	126		22
Harrison Frazar	0.12%	833	201		22
Heath Slocum	0.09%	1111	226		62
J.J. Henry	0.02%	5000	751		45
Jay Haas	0.00%	10000	1001		69
Jeff Maggert	0.02%	5000	501		62
Jerry Kelly	0.98%	102	51		45
Joe Durant	0.02%	5000	251		55
John Rollins	0.01%	10000	251		36
John Senden	0.00%	10000	1501		69
Jose Maria Olazabal	0.00%	10000	751		22
Ken Tanigawa	0.22%	455	151		52
Kenny Perry	0.04%	2500	301		52
Kevin Sutherland	0.15%	667	131		69
Kirk Triplett	0.00%	10000	601		40
Lee Janzen	0.00%	10000	1501		72
Mario Tiziani	0.03%	3333	401		45
Mark Calcavecchia	0.00%	10000	2501		76
Mark Hensby	0.16%	625	151		10
Matt Gogel	0.39%	256	81		12
Michael Wright	0.39%	256	111		55
Miguel Angel Jimenez	1.94%	52	21		18
Paul Goydos	0.11%	909	301		77
Retief Goosen	3.28%	30	21		2
Ricardo Gonzalez	0.20%	500	151		22
Richard Green	1.46%	68	51		2
Robert Karlsson	0.04%	2500	151		6
Rocco Mediate	0.01%	10000	501		55
Rod Pampling	0.12%	833	176		45
Scott Hend	2.46%	41	11		22
Scott McCarron	0.00%	10000	501		45
Scott Parel	0.02%	5000	301		12
Shane Bertsch	0.04%	2500	351		45
Soren Kjeldsen	4.87%	21	17		6
Stephen Ames	0.70%	143	34		78
Steve Allan	1.66%	60	41		22
Steve Flesch	0.34%	294	91		22
Steve Stricker	0.78%	128	21		40
Steven Alker	10.61%	9.4	9		62
Stuart Appleby	0.04%	2500	401		22
Tag Ridings	0.94%	106	67		55
Thongchai Jaidee	0.81%	123	51		12
Tim Herron	0.00%	10000	1001		67
Tim O'Neal	0.10%	1000	251		40
Tim Petrovic	0.14%	714	301		36
Tom Pernice	0.01%	10000	751		67
Tommy Gainey	3.56%	28	21		18
Vaughn Taylor	0.27%	370	67		12
Woody Austin	0.00%	10000	1001		62
Y.E. Yang	1.76%	57	34		55
Zach Johnson	27.46%	3.6	6.5	14.30%	1	49.15625	Bet365: 5.5/1, 5pl, 1/4

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	2.82%	35	29		58
Angel Cabrera	1.07%	93	67		22
Arjun Atwal	0.24%	417			58
Ben Crane	2.92%	34	29		22
Bernhard Langer	3.06%	33	36	0.30%	37	-0.3	Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Mayfair	0.40%	250	201		47
Bo Van Pelt	1.53%	65	46		58
Bob Estes	0.21%	476	451		22
Boo Weekley	1.23%	81	46		22
Brad Elder	0.02%	5000			47
Brandt Jobe	0.36%	278	101		37
Brett Quigley	0.41%	244			7
Brian Gay	0.86%	116	81		47
Cameron Percy	3.04%	33	29		14
Chad Campbell	0.17%	588	151		47
Chris DiMarco	0.17%	588	451		22
Darren Clarke	2.09%	48	36		7
Darren Fichardt	1.62%	62	34		37
David Bransdon	0.54%	185			7
David Duval	0.53%	189	91		22
David Frost	0.01%	10000	701		58
David Toms	1.12%	89	56		22
Dicky Pride	1.49%	67	61		14
Doug Barron	1.50%	67	46		7
Ernie Els	4.86%	21	19		37
Fred Funk	0.01%	10000	701		76
George McNeill	4.21%	24	29	0.80%	1	8.4	Ladbrokes: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Greg Chalmers	0.85%	118	81		37
Harrison Frazar	0.79%	127			14
Heath Slocum	0.73%	137	111		22
J.J. Henry	0.39%	256	201		14
Jay Haas	0.12%	833	451		68
Jeff Maggert	0.43%	233	201		68
Jerry Kelly	1.85%	54	46		58
Joe Durant	0.40%	250	111		14
John Rollins	0.29%	345	111		37
John Senden	0.05%	2000	451		3
Jose Maria Olazabal	0.21%	476	451		7
Ken Tanigawa	1.05%	95	91		68
Kenny Perry	0.44%	227	111		22
Kevin Sutherland	0.90%	111	91		68
Kirk Triplett	0.20%	500	201		58
Lee Janzen	0.06%	1667	451		37
Mario Tiziani	0.50%	200	151		22
Mark Calcavecchia	0.00%	10000	701		78
Mark Hensby	0.85%	118	91		47
Matt Gogel	1.19%	84	61		7
Michael Wright	1.20%	83	61		68
Miguel Angel Jimenez	2.37%	42	29		3
Paul Goydos	0.76%	132	126		47
Retief Goosen	2.93%	34	26		22
Ricardo Gonzalez	0.92%	109	91		47
Richard Green	2.05%	49	46		7
Robert Karlsson	0.53%	189	81		14
Rocco Mediate	0.19%	526	201		58
Rod Pampling	0.77%	130	91		22
Scott Hend	2.58%	39	17		1
Scott McCarron	0.17%	588	201		14
Scott Parel	0.48%	208	111		58
Shane Bertsch	0.58%	172	151		68
Soren Kjeldsen	3.60%	28	23		14
Stephen Ames	1.64%	61	34		77
Steve Allan	2.22%	45	41		37
Steve Flesch	1.10%	91	61		75
Steve Stricker	1.66%	60	29		58
Steven Alker	5.28%	19	15		37
Stuart Appleby	0.49%	204	151		47
Tag Ridings	1.66%	60	51		3
Thongchai Jaidee	1.64%	61	41		47
Tim Herron	0.12%	833	451		58
Tim O'Neal	0.74%	135	111		47
Tim Petrovic	0.83%	120	126		22
Tom Pernice	0.27%	370	201		37
Tommy Gainey	3.02%	33	29		22
Vaughn Taylor	1.07%	93	51		3
Woody Austin	0.15%	667	451		68
Y.E. Yang	2.30%	43	34		47
Zach Johnson	8.90%	11	12	0.60%	22	-0.6	BetMGM: 11/1, 5pl, 1/5

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Zach Johnson	27.46%	3.6	6.5	14.30%	1	6.875	Bet365: 5.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: George McNeill	6.75%	15	23	2.50%	6	-2	William Hill: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Ernie Els	8.69%	12	13	1.10%	12	-2	Bet365: 11/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: George McNeill	4.21%	24	29	0.80%	1	10.5	Ladbrokes: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Zach Johnson	8.90%	11	12	0.60%	22	-1	BetMGM: 11/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Bernhard Langer	3.06%	33	36	0.30%	37	-1	Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.