Simulation Results: Mitsubishi Electric Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	3.98%	25	17		12
Angel Cabrera	2.14%	47	34		2
Bernhard Langer	3.80%	26	19		9
Boo Weekley	0.48%	208	86		15
Corey Pavin	0.04%	2500	2001		39
Darren Clarke	4.37%	23	29	1.00%	7	-1	Unibet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Duval	0.21%	476	176		15
David Toms	0.67%	149	201	0.20%	20	-0.2	Unibet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Davis Love	0.02%	5000	401		28
Doug Barron	1.38%	72	46		36
Ernie Els	8.82%	11	13	1.20%	4	0.4	QuinnBet: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fred Couples	2.45%	41	46	0.30%	7	-0.3	Priced Up: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fred Funk	0.00%	10000	2501		42
Freddie Jacobson	3.33%	30	21		4
Jay Haas	0.05%	2000	1501		24
Jerry Kelly	4.68%	21	23	0.30%	15	-0.3	QuinnBet: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jim Furyk	0.03%	3333	601		34
Joe Durant	0.41%	244	401	0.20%	26	-0.2	Priced Up: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Justin Leonard	3.26%	31	15		28
K.J. Choi	1.62%	62	56		28
Ken Tanigawa	0.69%	145	111		36
Miguel Angel Jimenez	6.31%	16	15		12
Mike Weir	0.73%	137	101		15
Olin Browne	0.03%	3333	1501		41
Retief Goosen	2.77%	36	21		3
Ricardo Gonzalez	0.90%	111	71		20
Richard Green	2.84%	35	31		20
Rocco Mediate	0.11%	909	401		33
Scott Dunlap	0.08%	1250	1501		26
Scott McCarron	0.06%	1667	751		34
Stephen Ames	1.72%	58	67	0.20%	9	-0.2	Priced Up: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephen Dodd	0.01%	10000	2001		38
Steve Allan	2.51%	40	36		28
Steve Flesch	0.90%	111	46		20
Steven Alker	11.17%	9	6		28
Stewart Cink	10.12%	9.9	6.5		1
Thomas Bjorn	3.07%	33	19		4
Tim O'Neal	0.67%	149	91		24
Tom Lehman	0.01%	10000	2501		40
Tommy Gainey	4.84%	21	23	0.50%	11	-0.5	Unibet: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vijay Singh	6.70%	15	23	2.50%	12	-2.5	Unibet: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
Y.E. Yang	2.03%	49	46		15

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	3.82%	26	19		13
Angel Cabrera	2.64%	38	29		13
Bernhard Langer	3.77%	27	21		27
Boo Weekley	1.03%	97	51		13
Corey Pavin	0.19%	526	201		39
Darren Clarke	4.07%	25	26	0.20%	32	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 25/1, 4pl, 1/5
David Duval	0.57%	175	67		4
David Toms	1.28%	78	67		40
Davis Love	0.17%	588	201		23
Doug Barron	2.04%	49	34		32
Ernie Els	6.52%	15	15		4
Fred Couples	2.94%	34	34		2
Fred Funk	0.04%	2500	251		42
Freddie Jacobson	3.46%	29	21		2
Jay Haas	0.25%	400	201		4
Jerry Kelly	4.38%	23	21		13
Jim Furyk	0.18%	556	176		11
Joe Durant	0.92%	109	126	0.10%	27	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 4pl, 1/5
Justin Leonard	3.36%	30	19		32
K.J. Choi	2.17%	46	36		13
Ken Tanigawa	1.29%	78	56		23
Miguel Angel Jimenez	5.44%	18	19	0.20%	4	-0.13428571428571	Boyle Sports: 18/1, 4pl, 1/5
Mike Weir	1.33%	75	51		4
Olin Browne	0.19%	526	201		37
Retief Goosen	3.20%	31	21		13
Ricardo Gonzalez	1.50%	67	41		13
Richard Green	3.07%	33	29		4
Rocco Mediate	0.43%	233	126		23
Scott Dunlap	0.33%	303	201		13
Scott McCarron	0.30%	333	201		37
Stephen Ames	2.36%	42	41		1
Stephen Dodd	0.14%	714	201		27
Steve Allan	2.88%	35	29		27
Steve Flesch	1.55%	65	34		11
Steven Alker	7.57%	13	10		27
Stewart Cink	7.37%	14	10		4
Thomas Bjorn	3.45%	29	21		13
Tim O'Neal	1.31%	76	51		32
Tom Lehman	0.10%	1000	201		40
Tommy Gainey	4.56%	22	26	0.70%	32	-0.7	Boyle Sports: 25/1, 4pl, 1/5
Vijay Singh	5.35%	19	23	1.00%	23	-1	Spreadex: 22/1, 4pl, 1/5
Y.E. Yang	2.49%	40	34		13

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Vijay Singh	6.70%	15	23	2.50%	12	-2	Unibet: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Ernie Els	8.82%	11	13	1.20%	4	0.66666666666667	QuinnBet: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Darren Clarke	4.37%	23	29	1.00%	7	-2	Unibet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Vijay Singh	5.35%	19	23	1.00%	23	-1	Spreadex: 22/1, 4pl, 1/5
FRL: Tommy Gainey	4.56%	22	26	0.70%	32	-1	Boyle Sports: 25/1, 4pl, 1/5
FRL: Miguel Angel Jimenez	5.44%	18	19	0.20%	4	-0.67142857142857	Boyle Sports: 18/1, 4pl, 1/5
FRL: Darren Clarke	4.07%	25	26	0.20%	4	-1	Boyle Sports: 25/1, 4pl, 1/5
FRL: Joe Durant	0.92%	109	126	0.10%	13	-1	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 4pl, 1/5
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.