Simulation Results: Mitsubishi Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	2.22%	45	46		13
Angel Cabrera	1.05%	95	67		18
Ben Crane	1.79%	56	23		10
Billy Andrade	0.11%	909	751		70
Bo Van Pelt	1.27%	79	51		36
Bob Estes	0.08%	1250	401		65
Boo Weekley	0.55%	182	101		33
Brian Gay	0.55%	182	101		53
Cameron Percy	4.98%	20	17		36
Chad Campbell	0.03%	3333	501		74
Charlie Wi	0.84%	119	81		59
Chris DiMarco	0.02%	5000	1001		23
Colin Montgomerie	0.31%	323	151		28
Darren Clarke	1.97%	51	71	0.60%	50	-0.6	PaddyPower: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Duval	0.13%	769	276		8
David Toms	1.21%	83	46
Dicky Pride	0.81%	123	201	0.30%	23	-0.3	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug Barron	1.22%	82	71		18
Duffy Waldorf	0.00%	10000	2501		72
Ernie Els	6.09%	16	19	0.90%	10	-0.9	Bet365: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Freddie Jacobson	1.99%	50	51		21
George McNeill	3.11%	32	34	0.20%	7	-0.2	Spreadex: 33/1, 5pl, 1/5
Greg Chalmers	0.95%	105	71		65
Harrison Frazar	0.38%	263	201		36
Heath Slocum	0.59%	169	151		77
Hiroyuki Fujita	0.04%	2500	351		59
Jason Caron	1.71%	58	51		36
Jay Haas	0.01%	10000	1251		48
Jeff Maggert	0.19%	526	501		59
Jerry Kelly	1.44%	69	36		14
Joe Durant	0.17%	588	401		28
John Rollins	0.08%	1250	351		33
John Senden	0.00%	10000	1501		59
Jose Maria Olazabal	0.04%	2500	501		72
K.J. Choi	1.49%	67	51		36
Ken Duke	0.05%	2000	501		55
Ken Tanigawa	0.48%	208	251	0.10%	50	-0.1	Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/5
Kenny Perry	0.19%	526	276		64
Kevin Sutherland	0.89%	112	151	0.20%	45	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kirk Triplett	0.10%	1000	751		35
Lee Janzen	0.01%	10000	1501		70
Mario Tiziani	0.30%	333	301		57
Mark Calcavecchia	0.00%	10000	1501		78
Mark Hensby	0.35%	286	276		63
Matt Gogel	0.85%	118	161	0.20%	26	-0.2	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Wright	0.69%	145	151		15
Miguel Angel Jimenez	4.45%	22	19		17
Paul Goydos	0.30%	333	301		45
Paul Stankowski	0.63%	159	251	0.20%	28	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Retief Goosen	2.94%	34	26		1
Ricardo Gonzalez	0.47%	213	161		36
Richard Green	2.35%	43	67	0.90%	31	-0.9	Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Robert Karlsson	0.21%	476	201		57
Rory Sabbatini	0.00%	10000	71		23
Ryan Armour	0.10%	1000	176		53
Scott McCarron	0.05%	2000	501		52
Scott Parel	0.18%	556			26
Shane Bertsch	0.25%	400	251		18
Soren Kjeldsen	3.63%	28	29	0.20%	22	-0.2	Skybet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephen Ames	1.60%	63	51		2
Steve Flesch	0.77%	130	101		44
Steve Pate	0.00%	10000	1501		65
Stewart Cink	15.78%	6.3	3.75		4
Stuart Appleby	0.14%	714	601		36
Tag Ridings	1.77%	56	51		31
Thongchai Jaidee	1.21%	83	61		5
Tim Herron	0.09%	1111	401		74
Tim O'Neal	0.63%	159	101		48
Tim Petrovic	0.46%	217	161		36
Tom Pernice	0.06%	1667	501		45
Tommy Gainey	2.91%	34	34		6
Vaughn Taylor	1.14%	88	67		55
Woody Austin	0.04%	2500	1501		69
Y.E. Yang	2.29%	44	46	0.10%	10	-0.1	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach Johnson	14.31%	7	6		3

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	2.31%	43	41		5
Angel Cabrera	1.40%	71	46		63
Ben Crane	2.01%	50	29		2
Billy Andrade	0.33%	303	251		37
Bo Van Pelt	1.55%	65	46		63
Bob Estes	0.34%	294	226		51
Boo Weekley	0.94%	106	67		68
Brian Gay	0.90%	111	81		37
Cameron Percy	3.93%	25	19		19
Chad Campbell	0.13%	769	201		37
Charlie Wi	1.26%	79	61		63
Chris DiMarco	0.14%	714	351		31
Colin Montgomerie	0.69%	145	91		37
Darren Clarke	2.19%	46	51	0.20%	31	-0.2	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Duval	0.42%	238	101		11
David Toms	1.56%	64	41
Dicky Pride	1.18%	85	101	0.20%	51	-0.2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug Barron	1.54%	65	51		51
Duffy Waldorf	0.07%	1429	401		51
Ernie Els	4.50%	22	21		19
Freddie Jacobson	2.17%	46	46		13
George McNeill	2.91%	34	34		11
Greg Chalmers	1.34%	75	51		51
Harrison Frazar	0.72%	139	101		13
Heath Slocum	1.03%	97	81		51
Hiroyuki Fujita	0.17%	588	126		19
Jason Caron	1.94%	52	46		19
Jay Haas	0.08%	1250	401		37
Jeff Maggert	0.48%	208	201		19
Jerry Kelly	1.72%	58	41		5
Joe Durant	0.49%	204	201		13
John Rollins	0.31%	323	201		37
John Senden	0.05%	2000	401		37
Jose Maria Olazabal	0.25%	400	151		63
K.J. Choi	1.80%	56	46		5
Ken Duke	0.22%	455	176		68
Ken Tanigawa	0.91%	110	101		68
Kenny Perry	0.47%	213	126		73
Kevin Sutherland	1.31%	76	81	0.10%	51	-0.1	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kirk Triplett	0.33%	303	351		68
Lee Janzen	0.11%	909	401		31
Mario Tiziani	0.64%	156	126		51
Mark Calcavecchia	0.01%	10000	401		77
Mark Hensby	0.68%	147	111		78
Matt Gogel	1.26%	79	81		19
Michael Wright	1.05%	95	81		19
Miguel Angel Jimenez	3.66%	27	23		13
Paul Goydos	0.68%	147	126		51
Paul Stankowski	1.02%	98	101		5
Retief Goosen	2.69%	37	29		2
Ricardo Gonzalez	0.85%	118	91		37
Richard Green	2.34%	43	51	0.40%	13	-0.4	Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robert Karlsson	0.51%	196	101		37
Rory Sabbatini	0.01%	10000	61		19
Ryan Armour	0.32%	313	111		31
Scott McCarron	0.28%	357	151		68
Scott Parel	0.46%	217			19
Shane Bertsch	0.66%	152	101		13
Soren Kjeldsen	3.30%	30	26		19
Stephen Ames	1.83%	55	51		63
Steve Flesch	1.16%	86	61		37
Steve Pate	0.00%	10000	401		75
Stewart Cink	8.90%	11	8.5		5
Stuart Appleby	0.45%	222	201		31
Tag Ridings	2.02%	50	46		37
Thongchai Jaidee	1.49%	67	46		1
Tim Herron	0.36%	278	151		51
Tim O'Neal	1.04%	96	61		5
Tim Petrovic	0.83%	120	91		51
Tom Pernice	0.25%	400	201		51
Tommy Gainey	2.83%	35	34		31
Vaughn Taylor	1.54%	65	46		37
Woody Austin	0.17%	588	401		37
Y.E. Yang	2.30%	43	41		73
Zach Johnson	8.22%	12	10		2

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Ernie Els	6.09%	16	19	0.90%	10	-2	Bet365: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Richard Green	2.35%	43	67	0.90%	31	-2	Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Darren Clarke	1.97%	51	71	0.60%	50	-2	PaddyPower: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Richard Green	2.34%	43	51	0.40%	13	-1	Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Darren Clarke	2.19%	46	51	0.20%	31	-1	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Dicky Pride	1.18%	85	101	0.20%	51	-1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Kevin Sutherland	1.31%	76	81	0.10%	51	-1	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.