Simulation Results: Kaulig Companies Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	1.97%	51	36		20
Angel Cabrera	0.11%	909	226		14
Ben Crane	0.91%	110	46		5
Bernhard Langer	0.99%	101	61		20
Billy Mayfair	0.01%	10000	751		67
Bo Van Pelt	0.26%	385	81		23
Bob Estes	0.00%	10000	1501		71
Boo Weekley	0.19%	526	86		2
Brett Quigley	0.01%	10000	401		53
Brian Gay	0.02%	5000	251		60
Cameron Percy	1.40%	71	51		5
Chad Campbell	0.00%	10000	301		42
Charlie Wi	0.16%	625	86		36
Chris DiMarco	0.00%	10000	1251		73
Colin Montgomerie	0.04%	2500	251
Darren Clarke	1.31%	76	36		10
David Duval	0.01%	10000	301		40
David Toms	0.11%	909	151		53
Davis Love	0.00%	10000	1001		77
Dicky Pride	0.15%	667	101		77
Doug Barron	0.16%	625	101		58
Ernie Els	7.35%	14	17	1.60%	23	-1.6	BetMGM: 16/1, 6pl, 1/5
Freddie Jacobson	2.97%	34	19		28
George McNeill	3.87%	26	23		5
Greg Chalmers	0.07%	1429	111		42
Heath Slocum	0.01%	10000	501		71
Jason Caron	0.50%	200	71		11
Jeff Maggert	0.00%	10000	501		57
Jerry Kelly	0.55%	182	56		14
Joe Durant	0.00%	10000	401		67
John Daly	0.00%	10000	1001		75
Justin Leonard	0.50%	200	101		75
K.J. Choi	0.19%	526	101		36
Ken Duke	0.00%	10000	501		60
Ken Tanigawa	0.03%	3333	251		65
Kenny Perry	0.01%	10000	401		28
Kevin Sutherland	0.11%	909	251		40
Kirk Triplett	0.00%	10000	751		48
Lee Janzen	0.00%	10000	2501
Mark Hensby	0.03%	3333	141		58
Matt Gogel	0.35%	286	91		14
Michael Wright	0.13%	769	126		23
Miguel Angel Jimenez	1.85%	54	19		8
Mike Weir	0.04%	2500	251		42
Paul Goydos	0.01%	10000	351		50
Paul Stankowski	0.26%	385	91		28
Retief Goosen	3.27%	31	19		28
Ricardo Gonzalez	0.06%	1667	151		28
Richard Green	1.18%	85	41		42
Robert Karlsson	0.01%	10000	251		65
Rocco Mediate	0.00%	10000	1001		74
Rod Pampling	0.03%	3333	401		50
Rory Sabbatini	0.28%	357	51		3
Ryan Armour	0.16%	625	226		23
Scott Hend	0.54%	185	26		60
Scott McCarron	0.00%	10000	1001		60
Scott Parel	0.02%	5000	151		48
Shane Bertsch	0.01%	10000			60
Soren Kjeldsen	3.58%	28	23		28
Stephen Ames	0.34%	294	86		14
Stephen Dodd	0.00%	10000	2501		53
Steve Allan	0.52%	192	91		28
Steve Flesch	0.06%	1667	201		20
Steve Stricker	0.63%	159	41		50
Steven Alker	5.58%	18	17		36
Stewart Cink	21.63%	4.6	4.35		4
Stuart Appleby	0.01%	10000	501		36
Tag Ridings	0.21%	476	151		13
Thongchai Jaidee	0.18%	556	61		67
Tim O'Neal	0.07%	1429	301		14
Tim Petrovic	0.07%	1429	201		42
Tom Pernice	0.00%	10000	1001		53
Tommy Gainey	2.00%	50	29		28
Vaughn Taylor	0.44%	227	91		47
Vijay Singh	0.42%	238	176		11
Woody Austin	0.00%	10000	2001		70
Y.E. Yang	0.70%	143	71		8
Zach Johnson	31.38%	3.2	5.5	16.10%	1	45.28125	Bet365: 4.5/1, 5pl, 1/4

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	2.43%	41	34		22
Angel Cabrera	0.94%	106	91		15
Ben Crane	1.95%	51	41		34
Bernhard Langer	1.88%	53	46		22
Billy Mayfair	0.36%	278	181		47
Bo Van Pelt	1.17%	85	67		62
Bob Estes	0.30%	333	201		70
Boo Weekley	1.02%	98	67		9
Brett Quigley	0.39%	256	111		22
Brian Gay	0.53%	189	91		34
Cameron Percy	2.14%	47	41		4
Chad Campbell	0.19%	526	111		47
Charlie Wi	1.10%	91	51		34
Chris DiMarco	0.17%	588	201		68
Colin Montgomerie	0.59%	169	101
Darren Clarke	2.21%	45	31		2
David Duval	0.41%	244	111		15
David Toms	0.99%	101	67		34
Davis Love	0.09%	1111	251		70
Dicky Pride	1.00%	100	51		76
Doug Barron	1.02%	98	67		55
Ernie Els	4.18%	24	23		4
Freddie Jacobson	2.99%	33	23		55
George McNeill	3.18%	31	26		9
Greg Chalmers	0.79%	127	81		15
Heath Slocum	0.41%	244	126		70
Jason Caron	1.61%	62	51		22
Jeff Maggert	0.36%	278	126		55
Jerry Kelly	1.56%	64	46		1
Joe Durant	0.26%	385	111		22
John Daly	0.16%	625	151		34
Justin Leonard	1.52%	66	81	0.30%	15	-0.3	BetVictor: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
K.J. Choi	1.04%	96	81		22
Ken Duke	0.27%	370	151		62
Ken Tanigawa	0.62%	161	91		47
Kenny Perry	0.35%	286	101		47
Kevin Sutherland	0.93%	108	81		62
Kirk Triplett	0.19%	526	181		34
Lee Janzen	0.03%	3333	301
Mark Hensby	0.67%	149	81		22
Matt Gogel	1.26%	79	51		34
Michael Wright	0.94%	106	81		22
Miguel Angel Jimenez	2.52%	40	23		47
Mike Weir	0.74%	135	91		2
Paul Goydos	0.52%	192	126		22
Paul Stankowski	1.21%	83	51		34
Retief Goosen	3.00%	33	23		15
Ricardo Gonzalez	0.74%	135	91		55
Richard Green	2.10%	48	34		70
Robert Karlsson	0.46%	217	101		75
Rocco Mediate	0.13%	769	181		22
Rod Pampling	0.58%	172	111		34
Rory Sabbatini	1.14%	88	46		9
Ryan Armour	1.00%	100	81		9
Scott Hend	1.55%	65	29		55
Scott McCarron	0.14%	714	181		78
Scott Parel	0.53%	189	91		70
Shane Bertsch	0.43%	233	111		62
Soren Kjeldsen	3.10%	32	26		4
Stephen Ames	1.35%	74	51		15
Stephen Dodd	0.06%	1667	301		68
Steve Allan	1.46%	68	67		9
Steve Flesch	0.81%	123	91		34
Steve Stricker	1.67%	60	36		47
Steven Alker	3.82%	26	21		22
Stewart Cink	6.94%	14	10		15
Stuart Appleby	0.33%	303	126		9
Tag Ridings	1.11%	90	81		22
Thongchai Jaidee	1.04%	96	46		76
Tim O'Neal	0.77%	130	111		34
Tim Petrovic	0.79%	127	81		55
Tom Pernice	0.09%	1111	181		62
Tommy Gainey	2.50%	40	29		55
Vaughn Taylor	1.47%	68	67		47
Vijay Singh	1.46%	68	81	0.20%	34	-0.2	QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Woody Austin	0.13%	769	181		34
Y.E. Yang	1.68%	60	46		4
Zach Johnson	8.51%	12	11		4

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Zach Johnson	31.38%	3.2	5.5	16.10%	1	8.4375	Bet365: 4.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Ernie Els	7.35%	14	17	1.60%	23	-3	BetMGM: 16/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN:
FRL: Justin Leonard	1.52%	66	81	0.30%	15	-1.5	BetVictor: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Vijay Singh	1.46%	68	81	0.20%	34	-1.5	QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.