Simulation Results: Kaulig Companies Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Alex Cejka 3.11% 32 24 33
Angel Cabrera 3.05% 33 17 21
Bernhard Langer 4.60% 22 23 0.30% 67 -0.3 Skybet: 22/1, 6pl, 1/5
Billy Andrade 0.28% 357 401 68
Billy Mayfair 0.08% 1250 751 59
Bob Estes 0.43% 233 501 0.20% 40 -0.2 Star Sports: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Boo Weekley 0.27% 370 251 50
Brandt Jobe 0.04% 2500 451 25
Brett Quigley 0.62% 161 126 55
Brian Gay 0.28% 357 351 59
Cameron Percy 3.05% 33 41 0.60% 52 -0.6 Spreadex: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
Chad Campbell 0.13% 769 451 25
Chris DiMarco 0.06% 1667 276 63
Colin Montgomerie 0.53% 189 276 0.20% 40 -0.2 PaddyPower: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Corey Pavin 0.02% 5000 2001 70
Darren Clarke 2.53% 40 41 0.10% 21 -0.1 Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Bransdon 0.26% 385 501 0.10% 33 -0.1 Star Sports: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Duval 0.15% 667 251 33
David Toms 0.55% 182 131 48
Dicky Pride 0.74% 135 401 0.50% 59 -0.5 Ladbrokes: 400/1, 5pl, 1/5
Doug Barron 0.92% 109 51 12
Ernie Els 7.25% 14 11 25
Freddie Jacobson 1.45% 69 41 5
Gene Sauers 0.21% 476 751 0.10% 52 -0.1 Star Sports: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Greg Chalmers 1.16% 86 76 40
Harrison Frazar 0.59% 169 151 7
Hiroyuki Fujita 0.34% 294 751 0.20% 40 -0.2 Star Sports: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Caron 1.66% 60 51 30
Jeff Maggert 0.07% 1429 601 25
Jerry Kelly 4.21% 24 17 21
Joe Durant 0.47% 213 176 55
John Daly 0.00% 10000 2001 63
John Huston 0.06% 1667 1601 18
John Senden 0.01% 10000 2001 74
Justin Leonard 0.89% 112 91 12
K.J. Choi 1.65% 61 41 16
Ken Duke 0.34% 294 601 0.20% 33 -0.2 Spreadex: 600/1, 5pl, 1/5
Ken Tanigawa 0.62% 161 201 0.10% 18 -0.1 Spreadex: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
Kenny Perry 0.20% 500 401 25
Kevin Sutherland 0.80% 125 101 18
Kirk Triplett 0.12% 833 1001 63
Lee Janzen 0.03% 3333 2001 74
Mark Hensby 1.42% 70 61 15
Matt Gogel 0.54% 185 201 48
Michael Allen 0.02% 5000 751 74
Michael Wright 0.64% 156 56 7
Miguel Angel Jimenez 4.98% 20 17 1
Mike Weir 0.75% 133 151 0.10% 70 -0.1 Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Padraig Harrington 6.22% 16 10 30
Paul Broadhurst 0.54% 185 226 0.10% 63 -0.1 Skybet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Paul Goydos 0.90% 111 176 0.30% 40 -0.3 Skybet: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Paul Stankowski 0.80% 125 251 0.40% 57 -0.4 PaddyPower: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Retief Goosen 1.70% 59 34 7
Ricardo Gonzalez 1.00% 100 71 7
Richard Green 1.85% 54 51 7
Robert Karlsson 0.85% 118 91 33
Rocco Mediate 0.08% 1250 501 57
Rod Pampling 1.10% 91 201 0.60% 33 -0.6 Spreadex: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
Scott Dunlap 0.05% 2000 801 68
Scott McCarron 0.10% 1000 376 52
Shane Bertsch 0.32% 313 251 59
Soren Kjeldsen 4.30% 23 14 12
Stephen Ames 1.71% 58 36 40
Stephen Dodd 0.00% 10000 2001 77
Steve Allan 1.07% 93 81 16
Steve Flesch 0.90% 111 126 0.10% 4 1.325 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steven Alker 7.72% 13 12 2
Stewart Cink 7.73% 13 8.5 3
Stuart Appleby 0.27% 370 301 50
Thomas Bjorn 2.23% 45 29 33
Thongchai Jaidee 1.06% 94 101 0.10% 46 -0.1 PaddyPower: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tim O'Neal 0.75% 133 126 46
Tim Petrovic 0.54% 185 176 6
Tom Lehman 0.02% 5000 1501 78
Tom Pernice 0.03% 3333 2001 73
Vijay Singh 1.74% 57 71 0.30% 21 -0.3 PaddyPower: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Woody Austin 0.07% 1429 501 70
Y.E. Yang 2.20% 45 29 30

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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