Simulation Results: James Hadies Pro Football Hall of Fame Invitational

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	3.74%	27	17		4
Angel Cabrera	3.58%	28	21		35
Ben Crane	0.32%	313	34		31
Billy Andrade	0.18%	556	401		70
Billy Mayfair	0.07%	1429	1001		53
Bo Van Pelt	1.21%	83	51		14
Boo Weekley	1.13%	88	51		9
Brett Quigley	0.18%	556	351		77
Brian Gay	0.18%	556	401		67
Chad Campbell	0.07%	1429	201		50
Charlie Wi	0.92%	109	91		13
Chris DiMarco	0.11%	909	1501		24
Corey Pavin	0.01%	10000	2501		53
Darren Clarke	4.24%	24	26	0.40%	31	-0.4	Bet365: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Duval	0.15%	667	226		47
David Toms	1.30%	77	46		10
Davis Love	0.03%	3333	601
Dicky Pride	1.03%	97	101		14
Duffy Waldorf	0.02%	5000	2501		67
Freddie Jacobson	4.86%	21	17		31
Gene Sauers	0.21%	476	301		50
George McNeill	4.17%	24	26	0.30%	2	0.7875	Bet365: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Glen Day	0.03%	3333	1251		70
Greg Chalmers	1.45%	69	71		14
Heath Slocum	0.68%	147	111		14
J.J. Henry	0.17%	588	601		59
Jamie Donaldson	1.59%	63	23		4
Jason Caron	1.30%	77	81	0.10%	14	-0.1	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jay Haas	0.06%	1667	1251		63
Jeff Maggert	0.23%	435	301		44
Jerry Kelly	3.18%	31	31		63
Jesper Parnevik	0.00%	10000	1251		50
Joe Durant	0.44%	227	251
John Rollins	0.15%	667	251		53
Justin Hicks	0.10%	1000	126		24
Justin Leonard	2.84%	35	16		24
K.J. Choi	2.09%	48	46		21
Ken Duke	0.12%	833	251		47
Ken Tanigawa	0.39%	256	251		21
Kenny Perry	0.08%	1250	276		53
Kevin Sutherland	0.47%	213	111		14
Kirk Triplett	0.07%	1429	751		35
Lee Janzen	0.03%	3333	1251		75
Mario Tiziani	0.15%	667	301		43
Mark Calcavecchia	0.00%	10000	2001
Mark Hensby	0.93%	108	81		76
Matt Gogel	1.23%	81	46		24
Michael Wright	1.23%	81	67		35
Miguel Angel Jimenez	6.20%	16	23	1.90%	53	-1.9	Bet365: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
Olin Browne	0.02%	5000	2001		63
Padraig Harrington	4.22%	24	17		4
Paul Goydos	0.68%	147	251	0.30%	73	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Paul Stankowski	1.23%	81	126	0.40%	14	-0.4	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Retief Goosen	3.58%	28	21		31
Ricardo Gonzalez	1.11%	90	81		21
Rob Labritz	0.25%	400	301		59
Robert Karlsson	0.36%	278	151		47
Rocco Mediate	0.07%	1429	501		70
Ryan Armour	0.54%	185	81		67
Scott McCarron	0.05%	2000	601		35
Scott Parel	0.47%	213	201		73
Shane Bertsch	0.69%	145	226	0.20%	24	-0.2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Soren Kjeldsen	2.94%	34	41	0.50%	35	-0.5	Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephen Ames	2.09%	48	51	0.10%	12	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steve Allan	1.51%	66	56		4
Steve Flesch	1.49%	67	61		4
Stewart Cink	12.14%	8.2	6		2
Stuart Appleby	0.43%	233	301	0.10%	53	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tag Ridings	1.18%	85	34		35
Tim Herron	0.03%	3333	751		35
Tim O'Neal	0.47%	213	151		10
Tim Petrovic	0.85%	118	126	0.10%	63	-0.1	Spreadex: 125/1, 5pl, 1/5
Tom Pernice	0.11%	909	501		24
Tommy Gainey	4.01%	25	26	0.20%	44	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Van Phillips	0.01%	10000	251		44
Woody Austin	0.06%	1667	1251		59
Y.E. Yang	2.04%	49	56	0.30%	24	-0.3	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach Johnson	4.48%	22	8		1

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	3.06%	33	21		8
Angel Cabrera	3.03%	33	21		69
Ben Crane	0.66%	152	31		5
Billy Andrade	0.50%	200	176		39
Billy Mayfair	0.26%	385	276		34
Bo Van Pelt	1.51%	66	46		19
Boo Weekley	1.38%	72	46		8
Brett Quigley	0.49%	204	151		27
Brian Gay	0.50%	200	176		65
Chad Campbell	0.29%	345	101		8
Charlie Wi	1.29%	78	61		19
Chris DiMarco	0.31%	323	351		34
Corey Pavin	0.07%	1429	501		72
Darren Clarke	3.48%	29	31	0.30%	53	-0.3	BetMGM: 30/1, 5pl, 1/5
David Duval	0.44%	227	101		8
David Toms	1.60%	63	46		8
Davis Love	0.14%	714	251
Dicky Pride	1.35%	74	81	0.10%	39	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Duffy Waldorf	0.13%	769	501		75
Freddie Jacobson	3.73%	27	21		19
Gene Sauers	0.47%	213	126		65
George McNeill	3.34%	30	31	0.10%	3	0.25	BetMGM: 30/1, 5pl, 1/5
Glen Day	0.16%	625	276		76
Greg Chalmers	1.65%	61	56		5
Heath Slocum	1.03%	97	67		27
J.J. Henry	0.44%	227	201		49
Jamie Donaldson	1.71%	58	31		8
Jason Caron	1.60%	63	67	0.10%	19	-0.1	BetMGM: 66/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jay Haas	0.27%	370	276		39
Jeff Maggert	0.60%	167	151		39
Jerry Kelly	2.76%	36	31		53
Jesper Parnevik	0.00%	10000	351		39
Joe Durant	0.83%	120	126
John Rollins	0.43%	233	101		65
Justin Hicks	0.30%	333	81		8
Justin Leonard	2.63%	38	21		53
K.J. Choi	2.07%	48	41		34
Ken Duke	0.38%	263	151		49
Ken Tanigawa	0.78%	128	111		34
Kenny Perry	0.30%	333	126		39
Kevin Sutherland	0.85%	118	81		8
Kirk Triplett	0.26%	385	276		27
Lee Janzen	0.17%	588	276		53
Mario Tiziani	0.40%	250	126		27
Mark Calcavecchia	0.02%	5000	501
Mark Hensby	1.27%	79	56		53
Matt Gogel	1.55%	65	36		39
Michael Wright	1.58%	63	46		53
Miguel Angel Jimenez	4.40%	23	31	1.20%	27	-1.2	BetMGM: 30/1, 5pl, 1/5
Olin Browne	0.14%	714	501		49
Padraig Harrington	3.29%	30	21		72
Paul Goydos	1.08%	93	111	0.20%	39	-0.2	Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
Paul Stankowski	1.50%	67	81	0.30%	49	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Retief Goosen	2.97%	34	21		53
Ricardo Gonzalez	1.42%	70	56		1
Rob Labritz	0.52%	192	126		27
Robert Karlsson	0.73%	137	91		69
Rocco Mediate	0.29%	345	176		53
Ryan Armour	0.86%	116	51		39
Scott McCarron	0.22%	455	226		53
Scott Parel	0.82%	122	101		53
Shane Bertsch	1.03%	97	91		5
Soren Kjeldsen	2.46%	41	34		19
Stephen Ames	2.05%	49	41		19
Steve Allan	1.71%	58	46		3
Steve Flesch	1.68%	60	46		8
Stewart Cink	6.82%	15	11		2
Stuart Appleby	0.80%	125	126		72
Tag Ridings	1.48%	68	31		27
Tim Herron	0.16%	625	276		39
Tim O'Neal	0.86%	116	91		8
Tim Petrovic	1.15%	87	71		77
Tom Pernice	0.36%	278	201		19
Tommy Gainey	3.31%	30	26		53
Van Phillips	0.08%	1250	126		19
Woody Austin	0.23%	435	276		69
Y.E. Yang	2.04%	49	46		34
Zach Johnson	3.54%	28	13		8

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Miguel Angel Jimenez	6.20%	16	23	1.90%	53	-2	Bet365: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Soren Kjeldsen	2.94%	34	41	0.50%	35	-2	Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Darren Clarke	4.24%	24	26	0.40%	31	-2	Bet365: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Miguel Angel Jimenez	4.40%	23	31	1.20%	27	-1	BetMGM: 30/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Darren Clarke	3.48%	29	31	0.30%	53	-1	BetMGM: 30/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Paul Stankowski	1.50%	67	81	0.30%	49	-1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Paul Goydos	1.08%	93	111	0.20%	39	-1	Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: George McNeill	3.34%	30	31	0.10%	3	2.5	BetMGM: 30/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Jason Caron	1.60%	63	67	0.10%	19	-1	BetMGM: 66/1, 5pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.