Simulation Results: James Hardie Pro Football Hall of Fame Invitational

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Alex Cejka 4.93% 20 12 7
Angel Cabrera 1.63% 61 51 1
Billy Andrade 0.91% 110 67 18
Billy Mayfair 0.30% 333 276 32
Bob Estes 1.50% 67 71 0.10% 65 -0.1 Paddy Power: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Boo Weekley 0.54% 185 501 0.30% 18 -0.3 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brendan Jones 0.77% 130 126 41
Brett Quigley 1.35% 74 51 37
Brian Gay 1.64% 61 126 0.90% 41 -0.9 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Percy 4.24% 24 23 32
Chad Campbell 0.30% 333 251 48
Charlie Wi 1.43% 70 51 18
Chris DiMarco 0.13% 769 1001 37
Colin Montgomerie 1.14% 88 126 0.30% 23 -0.3 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Corey Pavin 0.11% 909 1001 69
Darren Clarke 4.68% 21 17 12
David Bransdon 0.61% 164 126 7
David Duval 0.16% 625 276 55
David Frost 0.05% 2000 2001
Dicky Pride 0.95% 105 151 0.30% 18 -0.3 Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug Barron 2.22% 45 34 23
Duffy Waldorf 0.06% 1667 1501 32
Felipe Aguilar 0.97% 103 71 67
Fred Funk 0.04% 2500 2001 77
Freddie Jacobson 3.81% 26 21 7
Gibby Gilbert, Jr. 0.09% 1111 301 67
Glen Day 0.40% 250 251 56
Gordon Burns 0.00% 10000 28
Greg Chalmers 2.20% 45 29 7
Hiroyuki Fujita 0.73% 137 126 32
J.J. Henry 0.60% 167 301 0.30% 59 -0.3 Paddy Power: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Caron 2.94% 34 21 23
Jay Haas 0.27% 370 401 48
Jeff Maggert 0.32% 313 501 0.10% 37 -0.1 BetVictor: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jerry Kelly 4.59% 22 19 7
Joe Durant 0.96% 104 81 4
John Daly 0.03% 3333 1001 50
John Huston 0.10% 1000 1001 61
John Senden 0.01% 10000 501 74
K.J. Choi 2.90% 34 21 2
Ken Duke 1.29% 78 126 0.50% 41 -0.5 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ken Tanigawa 1.91% 52 41 23
Kenny Perry 0.54% 185 67 64
Lee Janzen 0.40% 250 1001 0.30% 61 -0.3 BetVictor: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mario Tiziani 0.81% 123 101 41
Mark Walker 0.51% 196 251 0.10% 56 -0.1 BetVictor: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mark Wilson 0.85% 118 251 0.50% 28 -0.5 Paddy Power: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Gogel 0.72% 139 81 41
Michael Wright 0.73% 137 67 12
Miguel Angel Jimenez 8.52% 12 8.5 6
Olin Browne 0.05% 2000 1001 69
Paul Broadhurst 1.81% 55 67 0.30% 73 -0.3 Paddy Power: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Goydos 1.64% 61 91 0.50% 50 -0.5 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Stankowski 1.87% 53 51 15
Retief Goosen 2.33% 43 19 3
Ricardo Gonzalez 1.25% 80 51 37
Rob Labritz 0.27% 370 251 12
Robert Karlsson 0.87% 115 81 50
Scott Dunlap 0.48% 208 276 0.10% 75 -0.1 Paddy Power: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott McCarron 0.41% 244 201 28
Scott Parel 0.52% 192 276 0.20% 61 -0.2 Paddy Power: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Verplank 0.05% 2000 1501 69
Shane Bertsch 1.27% 79 81 32
Steve Allan 1.83% 55 34 56
Steve Flesch 1.70% 59 46 75
Steve Pate 0.02% 5000 1501 69
Stuart Appleby 0.88% 114 126 0.10% 41 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tag Ridings 3.05% 33 41 0.60% 41 -0.6 QuinnBet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Bjorn 2.32% 43 34 4
Thongchai Jaidee 1.79% 56 71 0.40% 28 -0.4 Paddy Power: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tim Herron 0.10% 1000 501 50
Tim O'Neal 0.98% 102 51 15
Tim Petrovic 1.29% 78 51 15
Tom Lehman 0.14% 714 1501 0.10% 23 -0.1 Skybet: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/5
Tom Pernice 0.17% 588 1501 0.10% 65 -0.1 Skybet: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/5
Vijay Singh 3.22% 31 34 0.30% 18 -0.3 BetVictor: 30/1, 5pl, 1/4
Woody Austin 0.26% 385 501 0.10% 59 -0.1 BetVictor: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Y.E. Yang 2.60% 38 26 50

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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