Simulation Results: Insperity Invitational

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Alex Cejka 2.81% 36 21 35
Angel Cabrera 1.64% 61 26 28
Bernhard Langer 5.22% 19 19 9
Billy Andrade 0.58% 172 151 61
Billy Mayfair 0.21% 476 401 28
Bob Estes 0.58% 172 201 0.10% 55 -0.1 Paddy Power: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Boo Weekley 0.23% 435 301 22
Brandt Jobe 0.13% 769 601 61
Brett Quigley 0.72% 139 101 22
Brian Gay 0.81% 123 276 0.40% 22 -0.4 Paddy Power: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Percy 2.22% 45 61 0.60% 11 -0.6 Paddy Power: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chad Campbell 0.09% 1111 601 45
Chris DiMarco 0.06% 1667 751 71
Colin Montgomerie 0.81% 123 126 40
Corey Pavin 0.02% 5000 1501 76
Darren Clarke 2.64% 38 29 11
David Bransdon 0.26% 385 176 69
David Duval 0.08% 1250 401 45
David Toms 0.69% 145 101 59
Dicky Pride 0.59% 169 201 0.10% 35 -0.1 Paddy Power: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug Barron 1.05% 95 71 22
Ernie Els 8.34% 12 11 11
Fred Funk 0.01% 10000 2501 75
Gene Sauers 0.10% 1000 501 11
Glen Day 0.15% 667 501 65
Greg Chalmers 1.28% 78 51 28
Heath Slocum 0.18% 556 201 28
Hiroyuki Fujita 0.29% 345 301 45
J.J. Henry 0.15% 667 601 40
Jason Caron 1.16% 86 51 40
Jeff Maggert 0.20% 500 201 70
Jerry Kelly 7.71% 13 15 1.10% 22 -1.1 Bet365: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joe Durant 0.75% 133 101 4
John Daly 0.01% 10000 1501 77
Justin Leonard 0.99% 101 81 11
K.J. Choi 1.41% 71 36 45
Ken Duke 0.59% 169 201 0.10% 65 -0.1 Paddy Power: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ken Tanigawa 1.12% 89 81 28
Kenny Perry 0.29% 345 276 55
Kevin Sutherland 0.81% 123 126 61
Kirk Triplett 0.19% 526 601 73
Mark Calcavecchia 0.00% 10000 4001 78
Mark Hensby 1.14% 88 81 22
Matt Gogel 0.41% 244 176 45
Miguel Angel Jimenez 5.34% 19 15 3
Mike Weir 1.22% 82 126 0.40% 11 -0.4 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Olin Browne 0.05% 2000 751 55
Padraig Harrington 4.81% 21 13 11
Paul Broadhurst 0.65% 154 126 37
Paul Goydos 0.99% 101 151 0.30% 37 -0.3 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Stankowski 1.05% 95 101 0.10% 45 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Retief Goosen 1.45% 69 36 2
Ricardo Gonzalez 0.58% 172 67 45
Richard Green 2.36% 42 34 11
Robert Karlsson 0.42% 238 176 11
Rod Pampling 0.83% 120 101 40
Scott Dunlap 0.09% 1111 401 9
Scott McCarron 0.15% 667 276 65
Scott Parel 0.17% 588 501 4
Scott Verplank 0.00% 10000 2501 74
Shane Bertsch 0.40% 250 251 55
Stephen Ames 3.06% 33 23 28
Stephen Gallacher 0.63% 159 81 45
Steve Allan 0.80% 125 111 4
Steve Flesch 0.87% 115 126 0.10% 37 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steven Alker 10.14% 9.9 6 45
Stewart Cink 6.94% 14 9 1
Stuart Appleby 0.57% 175 151 61
Thomas Bjorn 1.19% 84 46 11
Thongchai Jaidee 0.97% 103 151 0.30% 4 2.01 Paddy Power: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tim Herron 0.04% 2500 1001 40
Tim O'Neal 0.85% 118 67 28
Tim Petrovic 0.80% 125 67 59
Tom Lehman 0.03% 3333 1001 11
Tom Pernice 0.05% 2000 2001 45
Vijay Singh 2.15% 47 36 65
Woody Austin 0.09% 1111 601 71
Y.E. Yang 1.57% 64 41 4

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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