Simulation Results: Hoag Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	2.64%	38	23		65
Ben Crane	0.43%	233	51		32
Bernhard Langer	3.80%	26	29	0.40%	7	-0.4	Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Andrade	0.08%	1250	751		68
Billy Mayfair	0.14%	714	1001		53
Bo Van Pelt	0.95%	105	51		14
Bob Estes	0.06%	1667	501		56
Boo Weekley	0.59%	169	71		39
Brian Gay	0.18%	556	501		4
Cameron Percy	3.97%	25	26	0.10%	10	-0.1	Bet365: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chad Campbell	0.02%	5000	501		60
Charlie Wi	0.86%	116	91		4
Chris DiMarco	0.04%	2500	1501		75
Corey Pavin	0.01%	10000	1001		65
Darren Clarke	2.45%	41	41		24
David Duval	0.09%	1111	401		14
David Frost	0.00%	10000	2501		60
David Toms	0.86%	116	67		10
Dicky Pride	0.59%	169	131		32
Doug Barron	1.19%	84	71		73
Ernie Els	5.60%	18	19	0.40%	2	0.7	Bet365: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fred Couples	1.99%	50	56	0.20%	40	-0.2	Spreadex: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fred Funk	0.00%	10000	2501		73
Freddie Jacobson	1.97%	51	51		4
Heath Slocum	0.53%	189	101		40
Jason Caron	1.39%	72	67		21
Jay Haas	0.02%	5000	751		78
Jeff Maggert	0.12%	833	426		40
Joe Durant	0.09%	1111	501		24
John Daly	0.03%	3333	1001		21
John Senden	0.00%	10000	2001		77
Jose Maria Olazabal	0.01%	10000	1501		14
Justin Leonard	1.49%	67	26		32
K.J. Choi	1.91%	52	34		24
Ken Duke	0.05%	2000	501		68
Ken Tanigawa	0.48%	208	141		46
Kevin Sutherland	0.94%	106	111		40
Kirk Triplett	0.08%	1250	601		46
Lee Janzen	0.01%	10000	1501		68
Mark Hensby	0.30%	333	171		72
Mark Wilson	0.06%	1667			14
Matt Gogel	0.63%	159	101		46
Michael Wright	0.57%	175	101		32
Miguel Angel Jimenez	3.39%	29	29		10
Mike Weir	0.34%	294	10001	0.30%	14	-0.3	BetVictor: 10000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Padraig Harrington	4.83%	21	13		24
Paul Goydos	0.13%	769	301		24
Paul Stankowski	0.53%	189	161		56
Retief Goosen	2.23%	45	34		7
Ricardo Gonzalez	0.59%	169	101		46
Richard Green	1.87%	53	56	0.10%	24	-0.1	Spreadex: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rocco Mediate	0.05%	2000	501		60
Scott McCarron	0.07%	1429	351
Shaun Micheel	0.02%	5000	1001		53
Soren Kjeldsen	2.24%	45	36		14
Stephen Ames	1.53%	65	67		40
Steve Allan	1.91%	52	36		68
Steve Flesch	1.00%	100	76		46
Steve Jones	0.00%	10000	1001		60
Steven Alker	8.87%	11	9		7
Stewart Cink	8.60%	12	8.5		1
Stuart Appleby	0.15%	667	751		76
Tag Ridings	1.10%	91	67		32
Thomas Bjorn	3.00%	33	26
Thongchai Jaidee	1.02%	98	126	0.20%	13	-0.2	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tim O'Neal	0.40%	250	201		40
Tim Petrovic	0.39%	256	276		21
Tom Lehman	0.00%	10000	2001		65
Tom Pernice	0.08%	1250	1001		56
Tommy Gainey	2.91%	34	29		24
Vaughn Taylor	0.94%	106	67		53
Vijay Singh	0.61%	164	51		32
Woody Austin	0.02%	5000	2501		46
Y.E. Yang	2.32%	43	46	0.10%	14	-0.1	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach Johnson	11.69%	8.6	6		2

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	2.44%	41	26		21
Ben Crane	0.86%	116	46		9
Bernhard Langer	3.13%	32	34	0.20%	21	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Andrade	0.30%	333	251		21
Billy Mayfair	0.39%	256	201		55
Bo Van Pelt	1.37%	73	46		6
Bob Estes	0.26%	385	201		65
Boo Weekley	0.99%	101	56		43
Brian Gay	0.46%	217	201		2
Cameron Percy	3.36%	30	34	0.40%	9	-0.4	Boyle Sports: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chad Campbell	0.16%	625	201		65
Charlie Wi	1.28%	78	67		9
Chris DiMarco	0.22%	455	301		76
Corey Pavin	0.04%	2500	301		65
Darren Clarke	2.46%	41	41		43
David Duval	0.32%	313	181		6
David Frost	0.01%	10000	751		43
David Toms	1.20%	83	51		9
Dicky Pride	0.98%	102	81		32
Doug Barron	1.61%	62	56		73
Ernie Els	4.07%	25	26	0.20%	9	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fred Couples	2.17%	46	51	0.20%	43	-0.2	BetMGM: 50/1, 5pl, 1/5
Fred Funk	0.00%	10000	751		43
Freddie Jacobson	2.10%	48	46		4
Heath Slocum	0.89%	112	67		75
Jason Caron	1.73%	58	56		32
Jay Haas	0.16%	625	251		78
Jeff Maggert	0.41%	244	201		43
Joe Durant	0.33%	303	181		32
John Daly	0.14%	714	251		21
John Senden	0.06%	1667	751		76
Jose Maria Olazabal	0.11%	909	401		43
Justin Leonard	1.71%	58	34		55
K.J. Choi	2.06%	49	36		32
Ken Duke	0.26%	385	201		21
Ken Tanigawa	0.85%	118	81		55
Kevin Sutherland	1.35%	74	81	0.10%	55	-0.1	QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kirk Triplett	0.27%	370	201		32
Lee Janzen	0.07%	1429	401		32
Mark Hensby	0.67%	149	91		55
Mark Wilson	0.24%	417			21
Mathew Goggin	0.40%	250			21
Matt Gogel	1.09%	92	71		65
Michael Jonzon	0.14%	714			21
Michael Wright	0.96%	104	81		9
Miguel Angel Jimenez	3.01%	33	34	0.10%	55	-0.1	Spreadex: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mike Weir	0.70%	143	101		9
Padraig Harrington	3.70%	27	19		9
Paul Goydos	0.39%	256	181		1
Paul Stankowski	0.96%	104	81		43
Retief Goosen	2.24%	45	34		9
Ricardo Gonzalez	0.91%	110	71		43
Richard Green	2.02%	50	46		21
Rocco Mediate	0.22%	455	201		73
Shane Bertsch	0.65%	154			65
Shaun Micheel	0.12%	833	301		43
Soren Kjeldsen	2.21%	45	41		32
Stephen Ames	1.72%	58	56		43
Steve Allan	1.99%	50	34		65
Steve Flesch	1.29%	78	56		32
Steve Jones	0.05%	2000	301		55
Steven Alker	5.67%	18	15		4
Stewart Cink	5.61%	18	14		9
Stuart Appleby	0.45%	222	201		65
Tag Ridings	1.49%	67	56		21
Thomas Bjorn	2.78%	36	34
Thongchai Jaidee	1.40%	71	81	0.20%	6	-0.2	QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tim O'Neal	0.76%	132	91		43
Tim Petrovic	0.78%	128	126		9
Tom Lehman	0.04%	2500	751		32
Tom Pernice	0.29%	345	251		55
Tommy Gainey	2.73%	37	34		55
Van Phillips	0.12%	833			32
Vaughn Taylor	1.29%	78	56		65
Vijay Singh	0.99%	101	46		21
Woody Austin	0.12%	833	751		32
Y.E. Yang	2.40%	42	41		9
Zach Johnson	6.87%	15	11		2

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Ernie Els	5.60%	18	19	0.40%	2	3.5	Bet365: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Bernhard Langer	3.80%	26	29	0.40%	7	-2	Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Mike Weir	0.34%	294	10001	0.30%	14	-2	BetVictor: 10000/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Cameron Percy	3.36%	30	34	0.40%	9	-1	Boyle Sports: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Ernie Els	4.07%	25	26	0.20%	9	-1	Boyle Sports: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Bernhard Langer	3.13%	32	34	0.20%	21	-1	Boyle Sports: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Fred Couples	2.17%	46	51	0.20%	43	-1	BetMGM: 50/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Thongchai Jaidee	1.40%	71	81	0.20%	6	-1	QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Miguel Angel Jimenez	3.01%	33	34	0.10%	55	-1	Spreadex: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.