Simulation Results: Trophy Hassan II

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	5.61%	18	23	1.30%	4	2.925	Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Andrade	0.01%	10000	601		52
Bo Van Pelt	1.29%	78	41		24
Boo Weekley	0.99%	101	31		56
Brandt Jobe	0.04%	2500	161		24
Brendan Jones	0.04%	2500	201		48
Brett Quigley	0.01%	10000	151		42
Brian Gay	0.26%	385	161		33
Cameron Percy	4.91%	20	26	1.10%	24	-1.1	Bet365: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carlos Franco	0.00%	10000	1001		50
Charlie Wi	0.96%	104	29		20
Chris DiMarco	0.01%	10000	751		42
Colin Montgomerie	0.42%	238	71		11
Darren Fichardt	2.93%	34	19		11
David Bransdon	0.03%	3333	251		24
David Frost	0.00%	10000	1501		64
Dicky Pride	0.82%	122	111		20
Ernie Els	11.89%	8.4	8		4
Felipe Aguilar	0.02%	5000	301		38
Freddie Jacobson	4.36%	23	19		9
George McNeill	7.04%	14	21	2.40%	9	-2.4	Betfred: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
Greg Chalmers	0.25%	400	126		20
Harrison Frazar	0.35%	286	141		38
Heath Slocum	0.09%	1111	301		11
J.J. Henry	0.06%	1667	501		46
Jason Bohn	0.00%	10000	1001		62
Jason Caron	1.51%	66	51		6
Jay Don Blake	0.00%	10000	1501		65
Jean Van De Velde	0.00%	10000	1501		66
Jeff Maggert	0.02%	5000	501		16
Joe Durant	0.06%	1667	126		58
John Senden	0.00%	10000	1251		33
Jose Maria Olazabal	0.01%	10000	401		24
Justin Leonard	2.76%	36	29		48
K.J. Choi	1.81%	55	34		60
Keith Horne	0.22%	455	61		38
Ken Tanigawa	0.33%	303	161		33
Mario Tiziani	0.04%	2500	301		42
Mark Hensby	0.23%	435	151		33
Matt Gogel	1.04%	96	51		16
Miguel Angel Jimenez	6.56%	15	15		46
Paul Stankowski	0.51%	196	201		11
Peter Baker	0.55%	182	67		16
Rob Labritz	0.01%	10000	401		16
Robert Gamez	0.00%	10000	1501		61
Robert Karlsson	0.24%	417	81		52
Rory Sabbatini	0.41%	244	34		30
Ryan Armour	0.02%	5000	201		24
Scott Hend	5.08%	20	11		1
Scott Parel	0.14%	714	161		62
Shane Bertsch	0.18%	556	176		56
Soren Kjeldsen	6.70%	15	17	0.90%	6	-0.9	Ladbrokes: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephen Ames	2.20%	45	26		38
Steven Alker	13.76%	7.3	7		2
Stuart Appleby	0.07%	1429	301		50
Tag Ridings	1.00%	100	81		6
Thongchai Jaidee	1.47%	68	29		33
Tim O'Neal	0.34%	294	201		52
Tom Pernice	0.02%	5000	401		42
Tommy Gainey	4.54%	22	19		2
Vaughn Taylor	0.60%	167	41		20
Vijay Singh	2.23%	45	61	0.60%	30	-0.6	Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wes Short	0.00%	10000	251		59
Willie Wood	0.00%	10000	501		52
Woody Austin	0.00%	10000	2001		30
Y.E. Yang	3.01%	33	21		11

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	3.82%	26	29	0.40%	12	-0.4	Ladbrokes: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Andrade	0.39%	256	191		32
Bo Van Pelt	2.03%	49	41		42
Boo Weekley	1.77%	56	34		63
Brandt Jobe	0.55%	182	81		51
Brendan Jones	0.57%	175	81		24
Brett Quigley	0.39%	256	101		61
Brian Gay	1.11%	90	81		32
Cameron Percy	3.67%	27	29	0.20%	3	0.6	Ladbrokes: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carlos Franco	0.07%	1429	251		63
Charlie Wi	1.78%	56	29		24
Chris DiMarco	0.27%	370	201		32
Colin Montgomerie	1.31%	76	51		51
Darren Fichardt	2.89%	35	23		5
David Bransdon	0.51%	196	101		12
David Frost	0.07%	1429	251		42
Dicky Pride	1.71%	58	67	0.20%	42	-0.2	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ernie Els	5.53%	18	15		24
Felipe Aguilar	0.42%	238	101		5
Freddie Jacobson	3.40%	29	23		12
George McNeill	4.40%	23	26	0.60%	5	-0.05625	Ladbrokes: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Greg Chalmers	1.11%	90	81		9
Harrison Frazar	1.20%	83	71		51
Heath Slocum	0.78%	128	126		24
J.J. Henry	0.59%	169	151		24
Jason Bohn	0.17%	588	201		51
Jason Caron	2.09%	48	46		9
Jay Don Blake	0.01%	10000	301		65
Jean Van De Velde	0.02%	5000	301		66
Jeff Maggert	0.49%	204	151		24
Joe Durant	0.69%	145	81		59
John Senden	0.08%	1250	301		51
Jose Maria Olazabal	0.29%	345	151		12
Justin Leonard	2.77%	36	31		32
K.J. Choi	2.34%	43	34		61
Keith Horne	1.00%	100	46		32
Ken Tanigawa	1.13%	88	81		12
Mario Tiziani	0.51%	196	101		12
Mark Hensby	0.97%	103	91		42
Matt Gogel	1.87%	53	46		4
Miguel Angel Jimenez	4.15%	24	21		42
Paul Stankowski	1.31%	76	81	0.10%	24	-0.1	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peter Baker	1.47%	68	51		21
Rob Labritz	0.34%	294	151		12
Robert Gamez	0.02%	5000	251		51
Robert Karlsson	0.99%	101	61		59
Rory Sabbatini	1.32%	76	34		39
Ryan Armour	0.42%	238	101		24
Scott Hend	3.63%	28	15		1
Scott Parel	0.87%	115	71		51
Shane Bertsch	0.94%	106	81		42
Soren Kjeldsen	4.22%	24	23		5
Stephen Ames	2.54%	39	29		39
Steven Alker	6.01%	17	13		12
Stuart Appleby	0.68%	147	101		12
Tag Ridings	1.80%	56	56		21
Thongchai Jaidee	2.16%	46	29		42
Tim O'Neal	1.21%	83	81		39
Tom Pernice	0.36%	278	151		21
Tommy Gainey	3.53%	28	23		2
Vaughn Taylor	1.41%	71	41		32
Vijay Singh	2.53%	40	46	0.40%	32	-0.4	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wes Short	0.18%	556	101		42
Willie Wood	0.09%	1111	151		42
Woody Austin	0.18%	556	401		51
Y.E. Yang	2.90%	34	26		9

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: George McNeill	7.04%	14	21	2.40%	9	-2	Betfred: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Alex Cejka	5.61%	18	23	1.30%	4	4.5	Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Cameron Percy	4.91%	20	26	1.10%	24	-2	Bet365: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: George McNeill	4.40%	23	26	0.60%	5	-0.09375	Ladbrokes: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Alex Cejka	3.82%	26	29	0.40%	12	-1	Ladbrokes: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Vijay Singh	2.53%	40	46	0.40%	32	-1	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Cameron Percy	3.67%	27	29	0.20%	3	3	Ladbrokes: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Dicky Pride	1.71%	58	67	0.20%	42	-1	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Paul Stankowski	1.31%	76	81	0.10%	24	-1	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.