Simulation Results: Galleri Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Alex Cejka 3.73% 27 15 14
Bernhard Langer 4.02% 25 23 19
Billy Andrade 0.82% 122 81 62
Billy Mayfair 0.16% 625 751 19
Bob Estes 1.05% 95 111 0.20% 25 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Boo Weekley 0.31% 323 301 54
Brandt Jobe 0.11% 909 1001 64
Brendan Jones 0.78% 128 141 0.10% 66 -0.1 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brett Quigley 0.46% 217 101 19
Brian Gay 1.16% 86 176 0.60% 36 -0.6 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Percy 2.84% 35 51 0.90% 6 -0.9 Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chad Campbell 0.14% 714 401 36
Charlie Wi 0.71% 141 81 15
Chris DiMarco 0.06% 1667 1501 66
Colin Montgomerie 0.58% 172 151 54
Corey Pavin 0.04% 2500 1501 72
Darren Clarke 2.30% 43 41 10
David Bransdon 0.33% 303 201 29
David Duval 0.07% 1429 351 51
David Frost 0.02% 5000 3001 66
David Toms 1.05% 95 51 51
Doug Barron 1.18% 85 76 10
Ernie Els 6.80% 15 12 19
Felipe Aguilar 0.45% 222 151 19
Fred Couples 4.39% 23 29 1.00% 54 -1 Paddy Power: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fred Funk 0.01% 10000 3001 66
Freddie Jacobson 3.15% 32 41 0.70% 19 -0.7 Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Greg Chalmers 2.15% 47 34 51
Harrison Frazar 0.40% 250 176 49
Hiroyuki Fujita 0.44% 227 151 41
Jason Caron 1.95% 51 34 7
Jay Haas 0.17% 588 501 54
Jeff Maggert 0.19% 526 601 71
Joe Durant 0.40% 250 101 29
John Daly 0.02% 5000 1501 75
Jose Maria Olazabal 0.02% 5000 1001 54
Justin Leonard 1.26% 79 51 41
K.J. Choi 2.18% 46 26 54
Ken Duke 0.74% 135 201 0.20% 66 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ken Tanigawa 1.05% 95 67 25
Kirk Triplett 0.36% 278 401 0.10% 36 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lee Janzen 0.14% 714 1001 36
Mario Tiziani 0.56% 179 101 41
Mark Calcavecchia 0.00% 10000 3001 78
Mark Hensby 1.29% 78 81 0.10% 15 -0.1 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mark Walker 0.31% 323 301 62
Mark Wilson 0.45% 222 29
Michael Allen 0.09% 1111 301 77
Miguel Angel Jimenez 4.73% 21 15 3
Mike Weir 0.84% 119 151 0.20% 64 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Notah Begay 0.05% 2000 751 74
Paul Broadhurst 0.92% 109 101 41
Paul Goydos 0.78% 128 151 0.10% 25 -0.1 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Stankowski 1.09% 92 71 29
Retief Goosen 1.72% 58 29 10
Ricardo Gonzalez 0.87% 115 61 41
Richard Green 2.42% 41 23 7
Rocco Mediate 0.36% 278 201 78
Rod Pampling 1.13% 88 71 36
Scott Barr 0.04% 2500 176 54
Scott Dunlap 0.25% 400 351 75
Scott McCarron 0.12% 833 601 15
Shane Bertsch 0.67% 149 176 0.10% 25 -0.1 Skybet: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Stephen Ames 1.96% 51 41 29
Steve Allan 0.75% 133 126 1
Steve Flesch 0.76% 132 141 0.10% 3 1.7 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steven Alker 9.36% 11 7.5 3
Stewart Cink 10.54% 9.5 6.5 41
Stuart Appleby 0.39% 256 401 0.10% 7 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tag Ridings 0.76% 132 141 0.10% 2 1.7 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Bjorn 2.06% 49 41 49
Thongchai Jaidee 1.09% 92 101 0.10% 29 -0.1 Skybet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
Tim O'Neal 0.58% 172 126 10
Tim Petrovic 0.55% 182 91 29
Tom Lehman 0.05% 2000 2501 54
Tom Pernice 0.04% 2500 2501 41
Vijay Singh 1.72% 58 51 15
Woody Austin 0.14% 714 751 72
Y.E. Yang 2.38% 42 29 41

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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